FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FOOTBALL WINS & WHIFFS (WEEK 10)

November 14th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Evening Edition

Fantasy Football Whiffs & Wins

(NFL Week 10)

Week 10 was not a notable one for success, as I did not win any of the lotteries or the Millionaire Makers on DraftKings. I did however enjoy some personal fantasy success in my home leagues setting the weekly high in one, so there’s that. Even though I didn’t win big at the (fantasy football) track, I did get a few things right.

Week 10 Wins

Jahmyr Gibb (Lions) The rookie running back finished the week as the fantasy RB2, totaling 112 yards with two rushing touchdowns.

Tyler Boyd (Bengals) The Bengals wide receiver finished the week as the fantasy WR10, posting 8 receptions with 117 yards receiving.

Tank Dell (Texans) The Texans rookie wide receiver finished the week as the fantasy WR12, recording 6 catches for 56 yards receiving and a touchdown.

Noah Brown (Texans) The Texans wide receiver finished the week as the fantasy WR6, hauling in 7 passes for 172 yards receiving.

Trenton Irwin (Bengals) The Bengals wide receiver finished the week as the fantasy WR26, completing two grabs for 54 yards, including a 32-yard touchdown score.

Week 10 Whiffs

DeAndre Hopkins (Titans) The Titans wide receiver finished the week as the fantasy WR56, catching just 3 passes for 27 yards. This was Hopkins second dud in his last four games.

Brandon Powell (Vikings) Considering the absence of wide receiver KJ Osborn in addition to wide receiver Justin Jefferson still out, although the expectations weren’t high Powell’s week 10 numbers were disappointing. He finished the week as the fantasy WR43, collecting 4 passes for 35 yards receiving.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY MORNING GAMETIME

November 12th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Edition

Sunday Morning Gametime

Injuries always play a factor and influence game-flow and the potential outcomes in every game. Looking ahead to today’s slate of games, a couple of injury notes that could affect player performances in Week 10.

Tyler Boyd (Bengals)

With the potential of missing both wide receivers Tee Higgins (ruled OUT) and Ja’Marr Chase (back), Boyd would be elevated to the number one primary receiver. The Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has been slinging it all over the yard the past several weeks, making Boyd a favorite today in seasonal, as well as DFS.

Brandon Powell (Vikings)

The Vikings are still without wide receiver Justin Jefferson (activated off IR) and likely do not have KJ Osborn available today. Jordan Addison will be the popular pick today and deservedly so, but Brandon Powell will have some flex appeal and DFS value today. Even tight end TJ Hockenson is noted as possibly being on a pitch count today. For a lack of options available, Powell could see his role expand greatly today.

Tank Dell (Texans)

The Texans rookie wide receiver blew up last week against the Buccaneers, it was his third game with more than 20 fantasy points (ppr). With starting wide receiver Nico Collins (ruled OUT) sidelined today, Dell will likely become the defacto number one with a huge ceiling against a suspect Bengals 22nd ranked (vs the pass) secondary.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SATURDAY'S FF QUICK TAKES

November 11th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Evening Edition

Week 10 FF Plays

Sneaky Plays for Week 10

It’s another week impacted by the Byes and fantasy managers will have to dig a little deeper this week with teams like the Eagles, Dolphins, and Chiefs off this Sunday. There will be no Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, or AJ Brown available this Sunday, so time to go diving and find some fantasy value.

Mayfield is in Play this Sunday.

The Buccaneers quarterback has been a steady fantasy play over his last three games. Mayfield has been scoring in the fantasy starting range during this stretch averaging 259 yards passing, while completing 63.2% of his passes with five touchdowns. While the Titans defense has been pretty good against opposing quarterbacks, Mayfield faces a secondary that allows the 9th most completions and the 6th highest completion rate this season with the fewest picks this season.

Trent Irwin has value against the Texans.

With the Bengals receiving corps banged up and wideout Tee Higgins already ruled out, Irwin is in play this Sunday. The Bengals could also be without Ja’Marr Chase on Sunday opening up opportunities for the remaining pass catchers. While Tyler Boyd will be the popular pickup and insert this week, Irwin could fill a void in deeper leagues and provide value in DFS.

Noah Brown is a streaming Dark Horse.

Following a breakout game in week 9, the Texans wide receiver Noah Brown should be on most fantasy managers' radar heading into Sunday. Led by rookie quarterback CJ Stroud, the Texans passing game appears to be in high gear heading into this Week 10 road tilt with the Bengals. In two of their last three games, the Bengals secondary has been lit up by opposing receivers allowing the 7th most fantasy points in each contest.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE WEEKLY WAIVER WIRE

November 7th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Late-Evening Edition

The Weekly Waiver Wire

Noah Brown (Texans) The former Cowboys wide receiver had a welcome to the party kind of game on Sunday blowing up for 153 yards receiving with a score. Brown is barely owned in ESPN Fantasy Leagues (0.9% rostered) and should be considered a stash candidate and low end flex option with a potential high ceiling.

Keaton Mitchell (Ravens) The Ravens rookie running back had the hot hand on Sunday and exploded for 138 yards rushing on just 9 carries. He’ll figure to see more opportunities going forward and only owned in 1.0% of ESPN Leagues; he's another stash candidate (especially in Dynasty).

Tank Dell (Texans) The Texans rookie wide receiver Tank Dell is owned in just over half (55.7%) of ESPN Leagues), though he seems to be a true boom or bust fantasy play, if he’s available he has a tremendous ceiling and should be owned.

Tyler Boyd (Bengals) The Bengals wide receiver Tyler Boyd is only owned in 47.7% of ESPN Fantasy Leagues and over his last three games he’s been a solid fantasy WR3. With the Bengals offense starting to heat up and Ja’Marr Chase coming out of Week 9 a little dinged up, Boyd should be on fantasy rosters.

Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers) Even though it may not have looked pretty, the Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield has been playing in fantasy starter territory over the past several weeks. During his past three starts Mayfield has averaged 259 yards passing with 5 touchdowns. He’s only owned in 45.4% of ESPN Leagues and offers some streaming value through the remaining Byes.

Odell Beckham Jr (Ravens) After finally reaching paydirt for the first time this season the Ravens wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr turned in his best game. OBJ hauled in 5 passes for 56 yards receiving and a touchdown. OBJ is only owned in 42.4% of ESPN Leagues and should be owned. As he starts to look more like the old OBJ, he has a chance for better games being a part of the Ravens 4th best offense in the league.

Jonnu Smith (Falcons) The Falcons tight end Jonnu Smith (fantasy TE14) blew up on Sunday, recording 5 catches for 100 yards receiving and a touchdown. After a quiet couple of games Smith found his mojo in Week 9. Smith has seen at least 5 or more targets in 6 of his last 8 games this season. He remains involved in the Falcons passing game and only owned in 27.1% of ESPN Fantasy games, he should be owned.

JuJu Smith-Schuster (Patriots) Targeted 7 times on Sunday, the Patriots wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster had his busiest game this season, since Week 1. Smith-Schuster finished as the fantasy WR25 for the week.  JuJu is only owned in 29.9% ESPN Fantasy Leagues and while his Week 9 performance wasn’t a breakout, he may offer some relief as a streaming option through the Byes.

Demario douglas (Patriots) The better option out of Foxboro is the Patriots rookie receiver Demario Douglas. Only owned in 21.9% of ESPN Fantasy Leagues, Douglas has been seeing a steady diet of at least 6 or more targets over the past three weeks. His ceiling has not been exceptionally high, but his floor has been steady and safe as a flex play.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE WAIVER WIRE

October 3rd, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Late-Evening Edition

The Waiver Wire

The fantasy football season is a long and arduous trek with plenty of peaks and valleys throughout. The best owners can hope for is that the valley doesn’t run too deep and that they peak at the right time.

One of the best methods for team improvement is the weekly ritual of working the Waiver Wire. Every week fantasy owners are looking for way to improve their team and looking for that diamond in the rough to turn their season around.

Here are this week’s diamonds.

Week 5 Waiver Wire Options

QB, CJ Stroud (Texans) - It may seem a bit premature to go all-in on Texans quarterback CJ Stroud, but he is putting up one heckuva argument to do so. For the season Stroud has been the fantasy QB11 and over the past three weeks he has more passing yards (970) than any other quarterback with six touchdowns and no picks. It may be risky to insert him as your every week starter, but few quarterbacks are playing as well as Stroud; he needs to be owned.

QB, Joshua Dobbs (Cardinals) - Over the past two weeks, Dobbs has been an effective starter posting solid fantasy numbers; 454 yards passing and three touchdowns. He’s been the fantasy QB10 his last two starts and can be considered a possible streaming option during the bye weeks that start in week 5.

RB, Jaleel McLaughlin (Broncos) - The Broncos starter Javonte Williams exited the team’s week 4 game, but is not expected to miss much, if any time. That being the cash, his departure opened the door for rookie running back Jaleel McLaughlin. He showed plenty of flash in the ground and air attack, totaling over 100 yards. It’s hard to determine what his usage will be going forward, but he’s definitely stash/(cuff) worthy and flex consideration.

RB, Jaylen Warren (Steelers) - The Steelers running back Jaylen Warren has been steady playing behind starter Najee Harris, but over the past three weeks he has been the more productive back. Warren has 78 yards rushing to Harris’ 179, but he also has 13 receptions for 115 yards receiving (to Najee’s 2 for 32). In a ppr format, Warren is a borderline RB2/RB3, so he’s definitely in the flex conversation

WR, Tyler Boyd (Bengals) - With starter Tee Higgens expected to miss time, Boyd steps up into a starting role and needs to be picked up. Over the past three weeks he has averaged 8 targets per game, with Higgins out his workload will increase.

WR, Michael Wilson (Cardinals) - Over the past two weeks the Cardinals wide receiver Michael Wilson has been targeted 10 times and caught 9 passes for 162 yards receiving with two touchdowns. He has been the fantasy WR13. He’s a worthy add this week with flex appeal.

Watchlist

These are some names fantasy owners should have on their watchlist for possible pickups in the near future, Chubba Hubbard (Panthers), Melvin Gordon III (Ravens), Allen Lazard (Jets), Darnell Mooney (Bears), and Curtis Samuel (Commanders). Keep an eye on their production and usage in the coming week or two.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Late Night Edition
September 20th 2019

Friday Fantasy Fixx

Week 3 JMO Notes:

After a tough matchup against the Jaguars cornerback Jalen Ramsey in week 2, the Texans receiver DeAndre Hopkins (currently WR15, PPR scoring according to Fantasy Data) is hoping to put his 5 (catches) for 40 (yards receiving) in the past. This week he’ll look to bounce back against a Chargers defense that has allowed a 79% completion success rate to wide receivers. Hopkins is too good to struggle for two weeks in a row, expect a bounce back game on Sunday.

The Viking running back Dalvin Cook (currently RB2, PPR scoring according to Fantasy Data) has been a fantasy stud through two games this season. Cook is averaging 23 touches and 311 yards of offense per game with three rushing touchdowns. With the Raiders coming to town on Sunday, fantasy owners can expect more of the same.

The Bengals defense has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, including the most rushing yards allowed to running backs (308 rushing yards) and tied for the most rushing touchdowns allowed to running backs (3 rushing touchdowns). In two games, the Bills running back Frank Gore has found the fountain of youth, leading the club with 30 carries. This week he looks like he’s got a great chance to improve his 2.9 yards per carry average; start him.

Fantasy Five

Stud - The Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston played well last week on the road against the Panthers, in week 3 he gets home cooking against the Giants. In two games the Giants have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and over 325 yards passing yards per game. Just reading the tea leaves on this one, the Bengals wide receiver Tyler Boyd will take his shot against the Bills secondary that through two games has allowed the most receptions to opposing receivers. Through two games Boyd leads the team with 21 targets and 18 receptions and will pad those numbers on Sunday. An easy call here with the Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott. Facing the Dolphins defense (ranked 31st against the run) this week, it should be all Zeke, all day.
Dud - The Chiefs will be without starting running back Damien Williams, but running back LeSean McCoy is a bit banged up and taking on the league’s number run defense. It could be a long or short day for Shady.
Boom - The Packers defense has been snake bit by running backs through two weeks, on the ground (6.0 yard per carry allowed-and in the air (18 receptions allowed-most allowed). This week, Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay (13 targets this season), the team’s primary pass receiving back should see plenty of opportunities and could finally find the end zone. After a breakout week two, Niners running back Raheem Mostert could be making a case for himself to stay on the field, even after Tevin Coleman heals. Mostert currently ranks as RB17 in fantasy (PPR scoring) and his matchup against the Steelers (8th most fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs) this week, could yield more success.
Bust - The Raiders tight end Darren Waller (TE8 in fantasy) will face a stout Vikings defense on the road this week; he could see his numbers cool on Sunday. The Redskins quarterback Case Keenum (QB6 in fantasy this season) has had a bit of a hot hand, but it could get cold fast on Monday night against the Bears' defense (7 sacks this season).
Sleeper - With no Tre’Quan Smith and no Drew Brees, the check down on Sunday could feature the Saints tight end Jared Cook who faces a Seahawks defense that has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. The Bears running back Tarik Cohen was targeted 10 times in week one and 15 for the season. He could see more work in the slot against a leaky Redskins secondary on Monday night. The Broncos running back Royce Freeman (RB27) has been seeing enough work this season to be not only fantasy relevant, but flex worthy. He should get plenty of touches on Sunday against the Packers and could find pay dirt for the first time in 2019.


Recap Week 2
Stud - The Ravens Lamar Jackson (QB2) and Mark Andrews (TE1) came through with solid week 2 performances, but the Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (WR54) was held in check, all PPR scoring.
Dud - The Rams tight ends finished Week 2 as TE23 and TE30, none worth starting or playing consideration. The Eagles wide receiver Alshon Jeffery was basically a no-show exiting early in week 2 with an injury and a donut for a stat line. The Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay finished the week as RB26, not terrible especially considering the matchup against the Bears.
Boom - The Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley was WR8 in week 2, the Bills wideout John Brown was WR33 (flex play territory), and the Seahawks rookie receiver DK Metcalf was WR29 (flex play), again all PPR scoring.
Bust - The Bills veteran running back Frank Gore was an effective RB11 in week 2, while the Titans running back Dion Lewis (RB64) was just forgettable. 
Sleeper - the Niners running back Raheem Mostert was RB3 with a huge day, while the Steelers tight end Vance McDonald (TE3) was also big with a pair of scores. The Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (QB27) was awful last week.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega