FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 18th 2017

Wednesday Evening Edition

Sunday At A Glance 

(Week 6)

Watson continues to Own it on Sundays

The Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson is having a season to remember. Against the Browns the rookie was superb once again completing 17 of 29 passes for 225 yards and three more touchdown passes. His numbers had him ranked as the No.2 fantasy QB for the week and it was his fourth straight game with at least 20 fantasy points.

Cousins is rolling now.

After a slow this season, it seems Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins is rolling now. On Sunday Cousins completed 25 of 37 passes for 330 yards, adding three touchdowns; 2 pass, 1 run. This was Cousins third consecutive game with at least 20 fantasy points; during the stretch he has 915 passing yards and 8 total touchdowns. Yeah, he’s rolling now.

Dion Lewis Provides a spark.

With normal starting running back Mike Gillislee seemingly stuck in neutral on Sunday, the Patriots turned to Dion Lewis (who started on Sunday). Gillislee was running well gaining 44 yards on the ground before a first half fumble sent him to the sidelines for an early stretch. Enter Lewis and the spark the Patriots offense needed. Down by 14 points early, Lewis took handle of the run game reigns and total 52 yards on 11 carries, including a one-yard plunge in the 2nd quarter to get the Patriots on the board. With Gillislee in a touchdown drought (since week 2), fantasy owners may see Lewis role in the offense continue to grow.

Steelers find a hole in Chiefs defense.

And just when you thought they were formidable, the struggling Steelers show up and crash the Chiefs home celebration and spoil their undefeated start. Steelers Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger bounced back from an ugly week 5 showing to dice up the Chiefs defense for 250 yards passing and nearly 200 yards rushing. It was the Steelers best offensive output of the season, although they could only muster 19 points. Running back Le’Veon Bell led the way with 179 yards rushing, while Antonio Brown was a huge factor as well with 8 receptions for 155 receiving yards and a score. They looked formidable when the week started, but the Steelers may have just found some cracks in the Chief’s armor.

Fitz and Peterson; The Newest Dynamic Duo

With the arrival of running back Adrian Peterson, the Cardinals rushing offense received a huge and badly needed injection. The Cards entered the week as one of the worst rushing offenses in the league, but finished as the 6th leading rushing team for the week. Coincidently with Peterson in the backfield, wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald decided to take a dip in the fountain of youth turning in a stat line of 10/138/1; good enough for the No.2 fantasy WR for the week (in PPR). And oh yeah, that Peterson fella just managed 134 yards rushing on 26 carries with 2 touchdowns; he was the No.4 fantasy RB in PPR (No.2 in standard).

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 17th 2017

Tuesday Evening Edition

Sunday Lineup Killers

FANTASY DUDS 

If you owned any of these fantasy duds, it wasn’t pretty on Sunday. These are the players that are supposed to carry your squad on Sunday, but it’s likely if you had them, they killed any chance for a win in Week 6.

The Raiders quarterback Derek Carr returned to action in Week 6 after missing a week with a back injury. After his dismal performance on Sunday, just 171 passing yards with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions (the No.26 fantasy QB for week 6), fantasy owners may have wished Carr sat out another week.

The Lions had to turn to a heavy pass game on Sunday to play catch up and keep up with the Saints. Unfortunately for fantasy owners running back Ameer Abdullah only carried the ball 14 times for 54 yards and only saw two targets in the passing game (resulting in zero catches). Not a good day if you were a Lions fan or Abdullah owner.

It was another long Sunday for Patriots running back Mike Gillislee and fantasy owners. Gillislee finished outside the Top-50 fantasy RB (in PPR) failing to find the end-zone for 4 consecutive game. With just 44 rushing yards and a fumble, Gillislee was a lineup killer on Sunday.

The Rams wide receiver Sammy Watkins has virtually become the invisible man the past several weeks and on Sunday he continued the trend. Against the Jaguars Watkins was targeted 4 times and caught all of one ball for 11 yards.

The Raiders have a Houdini of their own in the passing game, wide receiver Amari Cooper. Fantasy owners have not heard much from Cooper the past several weeks and on Sunday he made little noise catching 5 balls for a mere 28 yards; not exactly what fantasy owners were looking for.

On Sunday the Green Bay Packers lost their starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers (broken collarbone) and it seems that tight end Martellus Bennett was also lost. Bennett has not been a focal point in the Packers pass game this season and on Sunday with just 2 receptions for 22 yards, it seems that role has not changed.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 4th, 2017

Wednesday Evening Edition

Week 4 Sunday Lineup Killers

Week 4 was more like Black Sunday for many fantasy owners, as a lot of big names just didn't show up. Leading the way of the demise was the Falcons Matt Ryan. This was his second consecutive sub-par performance. In Week 3 he threw three picks and here in week 4 Ryan finished as the No.27 fantasy QB; not what owners signed up for when they drafted him as the No.4/5 QB.

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan: 242 pa yds, 1 td, 2 int

Derek Carr: 143 pa yds, 1 td

Matthew Stafford: 209 pa yds, 0 tds

Ben Roethlisberger: 216 pa yds, 1 td, 1 int

It's simple in New England, if running back Mike Gillislee doesn't find the endzone he's going to crush your fantasy lineup. Since his big breakout Week 1 three-touchdown performance, he's only scored in double digits once, back in week 2. The Patriots have been caught up in some high scoring matchups, but they do most of their damage through the air. Gillislee's totals for Week 4, 49 rushing yards. That's not going to help too many fantasy owners going forward

Running backs

Jonathan Stewart: 68 ru yds, 1 Fum

Mike Gillislee: 49 ru yds

DeMarco Murray: 31 ru yds, 2 rec, 4 rec yds

Jay Ajayi: 46 ru yds, 8-yd rec

This is the second consecutive sub-par week and the third in four games for wide receiver Martavis Bryant. He's only topped 50 yards once this season and has had no more than 3 receptions in any game this season. I'm sure Martavis, along with fantasy owners hope he'll break this trend soon, but don't look for it this week. Next up for Bryant is Jacksonville and their No.1 passing defense.

Wide Receivers

Martavis Bryant: 3 rec, 48 rec yds

Rishard Matthews: 3 rec, 49 rec yds

Adam Thielen:5 rec, 59 rec yds, 1 Fum

It's time to put the Chargers tight end Antonio Gates on the shelf. He's definitely fallen down the pecking order behind the trio of Chargers receivers; Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, and Travis Benjamin. Gates may bounce back here and there , but with just 3 catches for 18 yards in Week 4 (the No.28 fantasy TE) he can no longer be trusted as a fantasy starter.

Tight Ends

Delanie Walker: 3 rec, 51 rec yds

Coby Fleener: 2 rec, 21 rec yds

Jack Doyle: 5 rec, 27 rec yds

Antonio Gates: 3 rec, 18 rec yds

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 25th 2017

Monday Evening Edition

Week 3 Sunday Lineup Killers

If you were counting on your big guns to deliver on Sunday, boy were you disappointed in a big way. Fantasy championships are lost this way. Well that may be over-dramatizing things a bit, but if your guys played like this it definitely didn’t help your cause;

The biggest egg laid yesterday in fantasy had to come in the days finale; the Sunday night game between the Raiders and the Redskins. The Raiders did have to travel across the country for this meeting and it looked like quarterback Derek Carr never left the plane; he only passed for 118 yards and threw two interceptions killing most DFS lineups. Fantasy owners can count on Carr bouncing back and he’ll have to quick; up next is the Denver defense.

Like Carr, Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers (what I considered a borderline QB1/QB2 in Week 3) killed any DFS lineup you played him in. Rivers was the mad bomber on Sunday, but the only problem was several of his long darts went to the other side. Rivers was turnover happy last season, so fantasy owners may want to slow their roll with him for the time being.

Derek Carr: 19 of 31, 118 pa yds, 1 Td, 2 Int

Philip Rivers: 20 of 40, 237 pa yds, 3 Int

Well, we thought he would be the featured back in New England and with 12 carries (most on the team) on Sunday he may be; he’s just part of an offense that features the pass. Without a rushing touchdown on Sunday Gillislee was a big flop finishing with just 31 rushing yards. In this offense, with Gillislee there are going to be Sundays like this. He’s a boom or bust better suited for standard leagues.

And just like Gillislee, Broncos running back CJ Anderson is better suited for the ground game. Anderson has never been a heavy volume pass catcher, just 4 catches leading into the contest, so when he’s held in check on the ground (as he was on Sunday) his numbers will disappoint. Fortunately for owners, the Broncos line has improved, so we should see this turn of event too often.

For those of us that expected a heavy workload for Titans running back Derrick Henry, not only did that not come to fruition (just 13 carries), but it you say DeMarco Murray too you were equally disappointed.

Mike Gillislee: 31 ru yds

CJ Anderson: 36 ru yds, 2 rec, 7 rec yds

Derrick Henry: 54 ru yds, 10 rec yds

There were a couple of big disappointments at the receiver spot in week 3 and amongst the notables were a couple of Raiders Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. The pair combined for just 2 catches and 13 receiving yards; not exactly what the fantasy doctor ordered. These two should get things turned around, but fantasy owners may have to be patient with a week 4 meeting against the Broncos coming up.

Jamison Crowder: 6 rec, 52 rec yds, 1 Fum

Alshon Jeffery: 4 rec, 56 rec yds

Amari Cooper: 1 catch, 6 rec yds

Michael Crabtree: 1 catch, 7 rec yds

Sunday week 3 was not a good day for tight ends, several starters came up short in disappointing fashion including the Packers Martellus Bennett; just 3 catches for 12 yards. Bennett has been targeted 21 times in three games, but the majority of his routes are short patterns and safety valves not producing much for owners. He may have been considered a bottom half TE1, but until the Packers move him downfield more,he’s just a TE2 with a low ceiling.

Martellus Bennett: 3 catches, 12 rec yds

Kyle Rudolph: 1 catch, 4 rec yds

Jack Doyle: 2 rec, 16 rec yds, 1 Fum

Coby Fleener: 1 catch, 21 rec yds

Hunter Henry: 0 catches, 0 targets

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 19th 2017

Tuesday Evening Edition

My Week 2 Takes (Fantasy Recap)

(Week 2 Fallout)

Well I bought into Vikings quarterback Sam Bradford last week, but unfortunately he wasn't selling anything on Sunday; Bradford sat out week 2 with a knee injury. A loss for fantasy owners as his receivers (Thielen & Diggs) were not the same in absence of Bradford. Backup quarterback Case Keenum was admirable on Sunday, but just not to the level or as efficient as that of week 1 Bradford.

Like week 1 there were quite a number of attention grabbers, concerns, mysteries, and plenty of take notice.

The attention grabbers would include; Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz has two 300-yard passing games to start the season, the Broncos run defense holding Ezekiel Elliott to just  8 rushing yards on 9 carries, and Cardinals wide receiver JJ Nelson has scored in each of the first two weeks.

A couple Week 2 concerns would include the Seahawks & Giants offenses. In Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson (No.20 fantasy quarterback) is off to a slow start having thrown just one touchdown pass in the first two weeks and only completing 56 percent of his passes (lowest of his career).

In New York it looks worse with the Giants having scored just 13 points in two games. Only the Bengals and Niners are worse. That is not good company to keep. And in the center of this is quarterback Eli Manning who really looks like a fish out of water at the moment. His slide is having a horrific impact on his pass catchers; WR Sterling Shepard leads the group with just 9 grabs and 67 yards, rookie tight end Evan Engram has the only score. Right now the entire offense is a must avoid until further notice.

A mystery of week 2 is the disappearance of Titans running back DeMarco Murray; 10 touches on Sunday, just 28 total yards. Through two weeks Murray has 24 touches totaling 69 rushing yards and 19 receiving yards. Apparently Murray is nursing a nagging hamstring injury that is likely to keep him slowed for a while. What else may keep Murray slowed for a while is back up Derrick Henry. The Titans other running back tore loose for 92 yards on Sunday and will be expected to soak up the bulk of the carries for the meantime until Murray is healthy.

Recapping the rest of week 2, here are five things that we learned;

#1.

You have to wonder, was Trevor Siemian listening to Peyton Manning and was he really paying attention? Last season it would have been an easy answer, no. But on Sunday Siemian showed a lot more, which has to make you think, "Oh right!

Mike McCoy is calling plays now." He was the mastermind that tinkered with Tim Tebow and he also helped Peyton Manning begin his comeback tour in 2012. Whatever deficiencies we saw in Siemian last season, McCoy might just be the mentor to help him overcome and succeed this season. After two weeks, I'd have to say they are on the right track and Siemian is roster worthy is larger leagues (14-16 teams).

#2.

After watching the Patriots dismantle the Saints defense on Sunday, it quickly became obvious that running back Mike Gillislee is more than just short-yardage or the LeGarrette Blount role. Gillislee is the primary ball carrier in the offense, dominating the backfield with 18 carries on Sunday; next closest was Dion Lewis with 4 rushing attempts. James White, Rex Burkhead, and Dion Lewis will continue to rotate in and out of the passing game, but Gillislee is the back to own in most formats. In PPR, I may give the nod to White, leads backfield with 13 targets and 11 receptions.

#3.

Is it time to move on from Adrian Peterson, is a question I read yesterday and I just thought I'd give my take; absolutely. We've seen enough in two weeks to see there is no package in place in the New Orleans that fits Peterson's skill set. He's not only not being utilized, he's not getting on the field. Out of a possible 127 offensive snaps, Peterson has only been on the field 24 times (roughly 19%); time to move on.

#4.

There's a candy in Denver or at least a Now and Later. After two weeks, it's apparent in Denver running back CJ Anderson is the "Now." He's been solid rushing for 199 yards and averaging 4.4 yards per carry thus far. He's currently the No.5 fantasy running back in PPR. And while he's looked solid, his backup Jamaal Charles has also looked good as the change of pace. In limited touches Charles has gained 86 yards rushing at 4.5 yards a clip. As long as he remains healthy, Charles has a great chance at becoming the Later in the Broncos rushing offense (especially as well as the line is playing). CJ is a current RB1 now and must-start. Charles is someone to watch and worthy of a roster spot in deeper leagues.

#5.

Tom Brady is King. As if we all didn't already know this. Well in case some forgot or started to believe he was beginning to lose his fight with father time afer a week one loss, Brady showed everyone once again why he is the G.O.A.T. On the road, in the SuperDome, squaring off against one of the league’s best passers (Drew Brees), Brady made his case as the best completing 77 percent of his passes and throwing for 447 yards, while tossing three touchdowns in the Patriots week 2 road win. Brady is still King.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 1st, 2017

Friday Night Edition

Fantasy Draft Watch

Undervalued Players

Looking at the current ADPs and rankings, it may seem easy to see players fantasy value, but then again maybe not. I am no professor and don’t have any scientific degrees hanging on the wall, but I am believer in numbers never lie (maybe stretch the truth now and then).

So let’s start with the Patriots running back James White. If you ask me head coach Bill Belichick has put the writing on the wall with the statement running back Mike Gillislee “has a ways to go.” I don’t believe this is any indictment necessarily, but it supports my belief that White is still the primary back in New England. In the off season White signed a three-year extension after finishing the 2016 season third in both targets (86) and receptions (60). White is going to have a big role in the Patriots short passing game while mixing in a few carries; he’s going to be fantasy relevant once again after finishing as the No. 26 fantasy running back in 2016 (in PPR formats). Currently White is being drafted at the tail end of the 9th round as the 43rd running back off the board (according to FFC).

The quarterback position is looking very deep this season, once you get past the elite (Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees) and the Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer is one of the undervalued. Last season was a down year for Palmer, he had an injured John Brown for most of the season and an inconsistent Michael Floyd that the team eventually released following an arrest incident. But it was only a season removed from when Palmer finished as the league’s No. 5 fantasy quarterback when he passed for 4,671 yards passing and 35 touchdowns (in 2015). This season the crew passing game looks ready to fly and I can see Palmer easily finishing near the top 10, maybe 11 or 12. Currently Palmer is being drafted as the No. 19 fantasy quarterback, around the 13th round. You can get Palmer much earlier in drafts and according to this fantasy footballer I believe in the value.

A pair of wide receivers that I find interesting and undervalued include; the Los Angeles Chargers wide receivers Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin. Currently Williams is going off the board as the No. 40 fantasy receiver with an ADP of 8.10 (according to FFC), while Benjamin is going outside the top 60 (likely undrafted). Both receivers are poised to enter the season as part of a top tier offense with quarterback Philip Rivers and running game led by Melvin Gordon. From weeks 5 to 13 last year Williams was the No. 14 fantasy receiver in PPR finishing the season at No. 18; so he certainly has WR2 upside. Benjamin has looked strong this preseason and last year he was strong out of the gate, ranking as the 24th fantasy receiver through the first 8 weeks. Like Williams, in this offense with Rivers at the helm Benjamin has some upside that fantasy owners should look at in the later rounds of their draft. Williams can certainly make an argument to be taken much earlier and closer to the top 30 (have to remember wide receiver Keenan Allen is back) and Benjamin should be considered as a streaming option for bye weeks and a flex option (play the matchups).

These are just some of the undervalued players I am seeing in current drafts.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega