FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Evening Edition
October 5th 2019

DFS Saturday

For those of us that can’t get enough of fantasy football in the season long format, there is DFS. Here are a couple of fantasy lineups I am playing in DFS this week. 

Here’s my lineups and my breakdown;

QB-Andy Dalton, CIN: The Bengals offense ranks last in rushing this season and Dalton is averaging over 40 passes per game. This Sunday the Bengals square off with the Cardinals and a defense that has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Bengals offense seems almost exclusively passing dependent; I like Dalton’s prospect for a busy day and he should be a shoe-in for over 40 passes this week.

RB-David Johnson, ARI: I like Johnson’s usage in the passing game this season. Through 4 games DJ .has 28 targets (2nd most for running backs) and he’s involved in the run game with 173 yards rushing. He has a great matchup this week against the Bengals defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including the most receiving yards and 2nd most receptions.

RB-Leonard Fournette, JAX: The Jaguars are led by Fournette and their running game. Through four weeks, Fournette’s 72 carries ranked 6th in the NFL and his 404 yards rushing is third. He should be the focal point on Sunday and add his 23 targets leading to 16 receptions, he should be very busy on Sunday. I like his matchup against a Panthers defense that is allowing nearly 5.0 yards per carry this season.

WR-Chris Godwin, TB: After his big week against the Rams last Sunday, Godwin is off the injury report and geared up for another potential big day against the Saints. Through 4 weeks the Saints defense has allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Godwin is currently ranked 3rd in fantasy scoring for receivers, he looks primed to continue his strong play.

WR-Allen Robinson, CHI: Through 4 weeks, A-Rob has yet to find the end-zone, but he has seen no fewer than 7 targets in each of his four games and scored in double-digits (PPR format, full-point). This Sunday, Robinson matches up against a Raiders secondary that has allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing wide-outs. He should be a safe play and see plenty of targets.

WR-Courtland Sutton, DEN: The Broncos second year receiver appears to be on the verge of a breakout season, ranking 15th in fantasy scoring among receivers through 4 weeks. His numbers have been solid and his usage has been consistent averaging nearly 8 targets per game; even with less than favorable matchup I like Sutton.

TE-Darren Waller, OAK: The Raiders tight end is seeing a regular diet of targets every Sunday; 37 targets in 2019, ranks 2nd among tight ends. With his 33 receptions (leads all tight ends) he’s a favorite of mine this week against a stout Bears defense. Even with the bad matchup, Waller is such a featured piece in the passing game, he’s a safe play.

Flex-James White, NE: The Patriots running back has been a featured part of the passing game averaging 7 targets per game. He’s also been productive in PPR format, scoring in double digits in all three games he has played this season. I would expect much of the same against the Redskins this week, less about what Washington allows, but more about how he’s used in the offense.

DST-Eagles: The Eagles defense has a great matchup against a Jets offense that allows the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing defenses. With Sam Darnold already ruled OUT for Sunday, this matchup looks pretty good for the hometown team (Eagles).

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 21st 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

Week 7 RB Rankings

In a matchup that should be filled with plenty of fireworks, I really like Falcons running back Devonta Freeman this week. Despite this being a road game for the Falcons, it’s a great matchup for Freeman against a struggling Patriots defense.

RB Rankings

1. Le’Veon Bell

2. Ezekiel Elliott

3. Devonta Freeman

4. LeSean McCoy

5. Todd Gurley

6. Jay Ajayi

7. Melvin Gordon

8. Mark Ingram

9. Jordan Howard

10. Carlos Hyde

11. Alvin Kamara

12. Jerick McKinnon

13. Christian McCaffrey

14. Leonard Fournette

15. Doug Martin

16. Chris Thompson

17. Adrian Peterson

18. CJ Anderson

19. Tevin Coleman

20. James White

21. Duke Johnson

22. Javorius Allen

23. Joe Mixon

24. Dion Lewis

25. Derrick Henry

26. Ty Montgomery

27. LeGarrette Blount

28. DeMarco Murray

29. Aaron Jones

30. Orleans Darkwa

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 14th 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

Week 6 RB Rankings

This has to be PPR Week in the NFL. All the way up to No.14 this week is the Browns running back Duke Johnson Jr, solely on his receiving prowess. Through five weeks Johnson has powered his way up to the No.8 fantasy RB spot in PPR with 23 receptions on 31 targets. With only 16 carries, Duke is basically used as another receiver and stays heavily involved. Last week his touches and targets dipped a bit, but this week against a battered Texans defense he’ll likely take advantage.

Another PPR specialist that should make a lot of noise this week is Patriots running back James White. The Patriots ball carrier comes in at No.20 and that’s right where he is on the season; the No.20 fantasy RB in PPR. Through the team’s first five games White has been targeted 35 times and snagged 29 balls. He’s at home this week and will take his shots at a jets defense that allows the 5th most fantasy points to opposing running backs; he may not be high enough in this week’s rankings.

RB Rankings

1. Kareem Hunt

2. Todd Gurley

3. Le’Veon Bell

4. Melvin Gordon

5. Devonta Freeman

6. Leonard Fournette

7. Jordan Howard

8. Doug Martin

9. DeMarco Murray

10. Lamar Miller

11. CJ Anderson

12. Mark Ingram

13. Jay Ajayi

14. Duke Johnson

15. Ameer Abdullah

16. Carlos Hyde

17. Jerick McKinnon

18. Alvin Kamara

19. Javorius Allen

20. James White

21. Marshawn Lynch

22. Aaron Jones

23. Tevin Coleman

24. Chris Thompson

25. Andre Ellington

26. Tarik Cohen

27. Elijah McGuire

28. Mike Gillislee

29. Samaje Perine

30. Jamaal Charles

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 19th 2017

Tuesday Evening Edition

My Week 2 Takes (Fantasy Recap)

(Week 2 Fallout)

Well I bought into Vikings quarterback Sam Bradford last week, but unfortunately he wasn't selling anything on Sunday; Bradford sat out week 2 with a knee injury. A loss for fantasy owners as his receivers (Thielen & Diggs) were not the same in absence of Bradford. Backup quarterback Case Keenum was admirable on Sunday, but just not to the level or as efficient as that of week 1 Bradford.

Like week 1 there were quite a number of attention grabbers, concerns, mysteries, and plenty of take notice.

The attention grabbers would include; Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz has two 300-yard passing games to start the season, the Broncos run defense holding Ezekiel Elliott to just  8 rushing yards on 9 carries, and Cardinals wide receiver JJ Nelson has scored in each of the first two weeks.

A couple Week 2 concerns would include the Seahawks & Giants offenses. In Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson (No.20 fantasy quarterback) is off to a slow start having thrown just one touchdown pass in the first two weeks and only completing 56 percent of his passes (lowest of his career).

In New York it looks worse with the Giants having scored just 13 points in two games. Only the Bengals and Niners are worse. That is not good company to keep. And in the center of this is quarterback Eli Manning who really looks like a fish out of water at the moment. His slide is having a horrific impact on his pass catchers; WR Sterling Shepard leads the group with just 9 grabs and 67 yards, rookie tight end Evan Engram has the only score. Right now the entire offense is a must avoid until further notice.

A mystery of week 2 is the disappearance of Titans running back DeMarco Murray; 10 touches on Sunday, just 28 total yards. Through two weeks Murray has 24 touches totaling 69 rushing yards and 19 receiving yards. Apparently Murray is nursing a nagging hamstring injury that is likely to keep him slowed for a while. What else may keep Murray slowed for a while is back up Derrick Henry. The Titans other running back tore loose for 92 yards on Sunday and will be expected to soak up the bulk of the carries for the meantime until Murray is healthy.

Recapping the rest of week 2, here are five things that we learned;

#1.

You have to wonder, was Trevor Siemian listening to Peyton Manning and was he really paying attention? Last season it would have been an easy answer, no. But on Sunday Siemian showed a lot more, which has to make you think, "Oh right!

Mike McCoy is calling plays now." He was the mastermind that tinkered with Tim Tebow and he also helped Peyton Manning begin his comeback tour in 2012. Whatever deficiencies we saw in Siemian last season, McCoy might just be the mentor to help him overcome and succeed this season. After two weeks, I'd have to say they are on the right track and Siemian is roster worthy is larger leagues (14-16 teams).

#2.

After watching the Patriots dismantle the Saints defense on Sunday, it quickly became obvious that running back Mike Gillislee is more than just short-yardage or the LeGarrette Blount role. Gillislee is the primary ball carrier in the offense, dominating the backfield with 18 carries on Sunday; next closest was Dion Lewis with 4 rushing attempts. James White, Rex Burkhead, and Dion Lewis will continue to rotate in and out of the passing game, but Gillislee is the back to own in most formats. In PPR, I may give the nod to White, leads backfield with 13 targets and 11 receptions.

#3.

Is it time to move on from Adrian Peterson, is a question I read yesterday and I just thought I'd give my take; absolutely. We've seen enough in two weeks to see there is no package in place in the New Orleans that fits Peterson's skill set. He's not only not being utilized, he's not getting on the field. Out of a possible 127 offensive snaps, Peterson has only been on the field 24 times (roughly 19%); time to move on.

#4.

There's a candy in Denver or at least a Now and Later. After two weeks, it's apparent in Denver running back CJ Anderson is the "Now." He's been solid rushing for 199 yards and averaging 4.4 yards per carry thus far. He's currently the No.5 fantasy running back in PPR. And while he's looked solid, his backup Jamaal Charles has also looked good as the change of pace. In limited touches Charles has gained 86 yards rushing at 4.5 yards a clip. As long as he remains healthy, Charles has a great chance at becoming the Later in the Broncos rushing offense (especially as well as the line is playing). CJ is a current RB1 now and must-start. Charles is someone to watch and worthy of a roster spot in deeper leagues.

#5.

Tom Brady is King. As if we all didn't already know this. Well in case some forgot or started to believe he was beginning to lose his fight with father time afer a week one loss, Brady showed everyone once again why he is the G.O.A.T. On the road, in the SuperDome, squaring off against one of the league’s best passers (Drew Brees), Brady made his case as the best completing 77 percent of his passes and throwing for 447 yards, while tossing three touchdowns in the Patriots week 2 road win. Brady is still King.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 1st, 2017

Friday Night Edition

Fantasy Draft Watch

Undervalued Players

Looking at the current ADPs and rankings, it may seem easy to see players fantasy value, but then again maybe not. I am no professor and don’t have any scientific degrees hanging on the wall, but I am believer in numbers never lie (maybe stretch the truth now and then).

So let’s start with the Patriots running back James White. If you ask me head coach Bill Belichick has put the writing on the wall with the statement running back Mike Gillislee “has a ways to go.” I don’t believe this is any indictment necessarily, but it supports my belief that White is still the primary back in New England. In the off season White signed a three-year extension after finishing the 2016 season third in both targets (86) and receptions (60). White is going to have a big role in the Patriots short passing game while mixing in a few carries; he’s going to be fantasy relevant once again after finishing as the No. 26 fantasy running back in 2016 (in PPR formats). Currently White is being drafted at the tail end of the 9th round as the 43rd running back off the board (according to FFC).

The quarterback position is looking very deep this season, once you get past the elite (Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees) and the Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer is one of the undervalued. Last season was a down year for Palmer, he had an injured John Brown for most of the season and an inconsistent Michael Floyd that the team eventually released following an arrest incident. But it was only a season removed from when Palmer finished as the league’s No. 5 fantasy quarterback when he passed for 4,671 yards passing and 35 touchdowns (in 2015). This season the crew passing game looks ready to fly and I can see Palmer easily finishing near the top 10, maybe 11 or 12. Currently Palmer is being drafted as the No. 19 fantasy quarterback, around the 13th round. You can get Palmer much earlier in drafts and according to this fantasy footballer I believe in the value.

A pair of wide receivers that I find interesting and undervalued include; the Los Angeles Chargers wide receivers Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin. Currently Williams is going off the board as the No. 40 fantasy receiver with an ADP of 8.10 (according to FFC), while Benjamin is going outside the top 60 (likely undrafted). Both receivers are poised to enter the season as part of a top tier offense with quarterback Philip Rivers and running game led by Melvin Gordon. From weeks 5 to 13 last year Williams was the No. 14 fantasy receiver in PPR finishing the season at No. 18; so he certainly has WR2 upside. Benjamin has looked strong this preseason and last year he was strong out of the gate, ranking as the 24th fantasy receiver through the first 8 weeks. Like Williams, in this offense with Rivers at the helm Benjamin has some upside that fantasy owners should look at in the later rounds of their draft. Williams can certainly make an argument to be taken much earlier and closer to the top 30 (have to remember wide receiver Keenan Allen is back) and Benjamin should be considered as a streaming option for bye weeks and a flex option (play the matchups).

These are just some of the undervalued players I am seeing in current drafts.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 28th 2017

Monday Night Late Edition

Fantasy Draft Watch

Late Round Values

Part of a any great draft is being able to find value wherever you can. With so many studs loaded up front, there’s just more talent available than value. As your fantasy drafts progress you will see some players fall much further than expected and that’s where you will find the value to make your draft a success.

What I am saying, players like David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell are going to come off the board early and even players like Michael Thomas and the Jordan Howard will go quick. But once you get into the mid-rounds you’re going to see certain players that have legitimate upside still sitting there.

One player I like is the Eagles tight end Zach Ertz. With Jordan Matthews now off to Buffalo, his departure has opened up 117 targets in the Eagles passing game from a season ago. Ertz is going to be one of quarterback Carson Wentz primary targets this season and should be in line for a heavier dose of targets, coming off 106 from last season. Currently his ADP is 101.4 according to FFC (Fantasy Football Calculator) in 12 team leagues and he’s going off the board as the No. 9 fantasy tight end, so he’s someone with upside that you can wait on.

Another potential hidden gem is Redskins starting running back Rob Kelley. He looked very good in the team’s dress rehearsal third preseason game against the Bengals finishing with 57 yards rushing and figures to be the starter to open the season. Kelley is currently going off the board as the No. 34 fantasy running back with an ADP of 7.05 (according to FFC). Last season Kelley only started 9 games, playing in 15 and finished as the No. 26 fantasy runner in standard leagues. I love his value at his current ADP, he is virtually a steal and could be a nice flex option during the early bye weeks.

Like Kelley, the Panthers Jonathan Stewart is going off the board fairly late; the No. 41 fantasy running back according to FFC. His ADP of 9.01 puts him around the 9th round and a nice value for owners looking to add depth. There’s a lot of hype surrounding rookie running back Christian McCaffrey, but Stewart is still going to be involved and tackle most of the heavy lifting in short-yardage and possibly goal line. Stewart was the No. 29 back last season and should see enough work between the 20s to reach the similar numbers this season. His ceiling may be limited, but he’s got a nice floor owners can work with.

With the sudden loss of wide receiver Julian Edelman, there is going to be a lot more balls to go around in the Patriots passing game. Already considered hot fantasy stocks, tight end Rob Gronkowski and wide receiver Brandin Cooks should now see a spike in their target share this season. Another benefactor will be running back James White. Last season the Patriots ball carrier also managed 60 receptions on 86 targets finishing as the No. 26 fantasy back in PPR. He could easily see north of 100 targets this season and finish around near the top 20. With a current ADP of 13.05 (according to FFC) and going off the board outside the top 50 for running backs, White is basically going undrafted and risk free in any format.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 30, 2016
Sunday Morning Edition

Sunday Morning Gametime

We may be hours from our normal Sunday NFL Kickoff routine, but tune into FOX to catch the Redskins-Bengals live from London. An early score has the Redskins up 10-7, just about mid-way through the 2nd quarter.

Now looking ahead to Sunday's slate of games, just a couple of my own Fantasy Notes for today;

"My Fantasy Notes"

For the Patriots, there is no Dion Lewis this week against the Bills, so if you are a James White owner hang on to him. Even when Lewis likely returns in week 9, there's no guarantee he reinserted right away. Remember, he's missed a lot of football, White will still have value.

Today Browns quarterback Josh McCown makes his return. It's not real big fantasy news, unless you own tight end Gary Barnidge. The Browns big pass catcher has fallen off this season, ranked as the 14th fantasy tight end. Last season Barnidge finished 2nd amongst fantasy tight ends and much of his damage was done with McCown, so his stock is up today.

"Injury Notes"

The Packers wide receiver Davante Adams is listed on the injury report this week, but from all reports I am readng it sounds like he is playing. If healthy today against the Falcons, he's worth taking a shot as a flyer this week. Whenever you have quarterback Aaron Rodgers throwing the ball, your receiver has a chance.

Running back Lamar Miller will be playing banged up today, but it's not a good matchup for Fantasy owners. Miller and the Texans draw the Lions who allow the 11th fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. Miller when healthy has been solid and with his upside, he's a risky play today that owners will have a tough time sitting. If he's active he should be in your lineup.

That's my take.

~David G. Ortega