FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Evening Edition
October 5th 2019

DFS Saturday

For those of us that can’t get enough of fantasy football in the season long format, there is DFS. Here are a couple of fantasy lineups I am playing in DFS this week. 

Here’s my lineups and my breakdown;

QB-Andy Dalton, CIN: The Bengals offense ranks last in rushing this season and Dalton is averaging over 40 passes per game. This Sunday the Bengals square off with the Cardinals and a defense that has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Bengals offense seems almost exclusively passing dependent; I like Dalton’s prospect for a busy day and he should be a shoe-in for over 40 passes this week.

RB-David Johnson, ARI: I like Johnson’s usage in the passing game this season. Through 4 games DJ .has 28 targets (2nd most for running backs) and he’s involved in the run game with 173 yards rushing. He has a great matchup this week against the Bengals defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including the most receiving yards and 2nd most receptions.

RB-Leonard Fournette, JAX: The Jaguars are led by Fournette and their running game. Through four weeks, Fournette’s 72 carries ranked 6th in the NFL and his 404 yards rushing is third. He should be the focal point on Sunday and add his 23 targets leading to 16 receptions, he should be very busy on Sunday. I like his matchup against a Panthers defense that is allowing nearly 5.0 yards per carry this season.

WR-Chris Godwin, TB: After his big week against the Rams last Sunday, Godwin is off the injury report and geared up for another potential big day against the Saints. Through 4 weeks the Saints defense has allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Godwin is currently ranked 3rd in fantasy scoring for receivers, he looks primed to continue his strong play.

WR-Allen Robinson, CHI: Through 4 weeks, A-Rob has yet to find the end-zone, but he has seen no fewer than 7 targets in each of his four games and scored in double-digits (PPR format, full-point). This Sunday, Robinson matches up against a Raiders secondary that has allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing wide-outs. He should be a safe play and see plenty of targets.

WR-Courtland Sutton, DEN: The Broncos second year receiver appears to be on the verge of a breakout season, ranking 15th in fantasy scoring among receivers through 4 weeks. His numbers have been solid and his usage has been consistent averaging nearly 8 targets per game; even with less than favorable matchup I like Sutton.

TE-Darren Waller, OAK: The Raiders tight end is seeing a regular diet of targets every Sunday; 37 targets in 2019, ranks 2nd among tight ends. With his 33 receptions (leads all tight ends) he’s a favorite of mine this week against a stout Bears defense. Even with the bad matchup, Waller is such a featured piece in the passing game, he’s a safe play.

Flex-James White, NE: The Patriots running back has been a featured part of the passing game averaging 7 targets per game. He’s also been productive in PPR format, scoring in double digits in all three games he has played this season. I would expect much of the same against the Redskins this week, less about what Washington allows, but more about how he’s used in the offense.

DST-Eagles: The Eagles defense has a great matchup against a Jets offense that allows the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing defenses. With Sam Darnold already ruled OUT for Sunday, this matchup looks pretty good for the hometown team (Eagles).

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Late Evening Edition
September 6th, 2019

Friday Night Fantasy Fixx

Thursday Night Recap

First let’s talk about the disaster that was the two offenses in last night’s NFL opener between the Packers and Bears. While we can attribute some of the Packers woes to a great looking Bears defense (ranked 3rd in total defense in 2018), we can also consider a little pre-season rust. Normally I might rewatch the game using my annual NFL Game Pass, but come on, lets face it, this game was hardly worth the first watch.

The Bears D did what they do, sacked quarterback Aaron Rodgers five times, held the Packers offense to 16% 3rd down conversion rate, and limited them to just 213 yards of total offense. Fantasy owners of running back Aaron Jones were no doubt grumbling last night, with the lack of production, but this should have been expected with the Bears number one run defense from a year ago.  

What was not expected was the split snaps with running backs Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. Williams edge out Jones in the first half, but Jones finished with 38 to 26. This is concerning, but Jones did in fact out touch williams two-to-one, with 14 touches to 7, and outgained Williams 39 yards to 15 yards. Probably no need to panic here with the results, the Packers aren’t likely to see a defense this stout, that is of course until the face the Bears again. Keep calm.

One of the surprises of the night had to be the Packers Defense (pick them up off waivers). They registered five sacks of their own, came up with one turnover (although the secondary did let two slip through their hands) on the night, and shut down Mitchy (quarterback Mitchell Trubisky) and company, holding the Bears offense to 3 points. This was not expected, but neither was the poor play of the aforementioned quarterback; staring down receivers, ill-advised passes, poor decision making in critical moments. Trubisky still has some growing to do, and fortunately for the Bears, their defense may afford him a little time. He will need to clean up some of his flaws, but the poor coaching decisions and play calls he can’t control; what was up with that. 

For now, the only Fantasy studs on this Bears offense are wide receiver Allen Robinson who finished with 7 catches for 102 yards on 13 targets (28.8% share; this is massive) and flex receiver Tarik Cohen, zero carries, with 8 catches for 49 yards on 10 targets (22.2% share; this is huge, but likely not sustainable). These two should be in weekly PPR lineups.

Bad News: The Antonio Brown Saga

This is an incredible day-time soap opera in Raider Nation; I hear it’s up for a Daytime Emmy. Susan Lucci could never hope for as good a storyline as the one AB is trail-blazing. Since all of his antics have been adequately covered and monitored by all the media outlets and sports networks, there’s no need for me to dive down that rabbit hole. The only thing I can offer, is this was one of the reasons I steered cleared of AB during my season-long redrafts. He’s unquestionably one of the best receivers in the game today, but watching this free-fall he’s taken of late had me concerned about his availability. If Brown can overcome himself and manage not to trip over his own actions, he should payoff huge for owners that took a chance on him. I, for one will continue to steer clear for now, until the situation stabilizes and dust settles.

And then there was one. Another fantasy concern heading into week one is Chargers running back Melvin Gordon, the lone running back holdout this season with Ezekiel Elliot signing an extension with the Cowboys earlier in the week. This situation has no timeline, so there’s no telling if or when Gordon might rejoin the team, if he even does. He was another draftee I avoided, due to concerns with his contract situation. Fantasy owners, don’t hold your breath on this one.

Injury notes

It’s late Friday night, so I will check out the injury reports from today and update my perspective on the notables tomorrow.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 18th 2017

Wednesday Evening Edition

Week 7 Diamonds in the Rough

I’m pretty sure if Titan’s wide receiver Eric Decker was available this week on Waiver wires, he was a popular choice of the consensus. Afterall, Decker is coming off a nice Monday night performance; he was targeted 9 times and caught 7 passes for 88 yards. These were very nice numbers in PPR for Week 6.

For a couple of names that may have been overlooked this week, I give you my Week 7 Diamonds in the rough;

Over the past three weeks, Vikings running back Latavius Murray has yet to take advantage of the opportunity that has been presented. He’s carried the ball 34 times for only 80 rushing yards and zero touchdowns. Right now he’s being outplayed by running back Jerick McKinnon and it’s not close. This week Murray will get his second opportunity facing a Ravens defense that allows better than 4 yards per carry and nearly 125 yards on the ground per game. In two of their last three games the Ravens have allowed a 100-yard rusher (Le’Veon Bell 144 yards in week 4 and Jordan Howard 167 yards this past Sunday). This could be the matchup Murray needs to get going.

Digging a little deeper on the Waiver Wire, the Jaguars wide receiver Marquise Lee has an interesting matchup this week. Last Sunday many figured facing a tough Rams defense, in a run-heavy offense Lee would have little value. With the loss of Allen Robinson back in week one, Lee has emerged as the team’s best receiver. In 6 games Lee leads the team in targets (40), yards receiving (291), and is 2nd in receptions (20). Last Sunday Lee dominated the action in the pass game with 10 targets (good enough for 5 catches and 83 yards), nearest to him was only 3. It’s not a great matchup this week for Lee, but it’s not bad. The Jags will face the Colts in week 7 and over the past 4 weeks, the Colts secondary has surrendered the 5th most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers. If you’re digging, you’ll probably find Lee out there this week.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

December 16th, 2016
Friday Evening Edition

Friday Fantasy Fixx

With a lot on the line this week, for fantasy owners risk is not a friend this Sunday. If you are looking for a strong play and success this week, there are several players owners may need to avoid.

Over the his last eight games Jets wide receiver Brandon Marshall has scored in double-digits once once, back in week 12. This Sunday Marshall gets the Dolphins and will face a defense that held him to five receptions for 46 yards back in week 9.

In the Jaguars past four games wide receiver Allen Robinson has been on a huge decline. His 2016 season has been anything but memorable. Since week 11 Robinson has scored less than 8 fantasy points, including just 1.7 last week on 1 catch for 17 yards. This week he’ll see the Texans whose he has had luck against this season, but with just 6 receptions for 72 yards over his last three starts at best he’s a risky play this week.

Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins was a top 10 receiver in 2015, but this season he is hanging on to remain in the top 40. Hopkins has scored in double-digits in just one of his past eight games and in his last matchup versus the Jaguars in week 10 he was held to five receptions for 48 yards on 13 targets. The Jaguars allow the 6th fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, so even though this would be a hard sit this play has risk written all over it.

Finally, quietly the Panthers wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin has managed to find himself in the top 25 this season, but he has done this in rather unspectacular fashion. Benjamin has not had any big performances since his week two 22 fantasy points performance. In his last 10 games he’s only scored in double figures once and in the past two weeks he’s tallied just 3 receptions for 29 yards. With the Redskins on his plate for this week, Benjamin will face a defense that allows the 11th fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.

Fantasy owners may want to avoid these guys on Sunday.

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega