August 19th 2017
Saturday Morning Edition
Sleeper Watch
So what is a real sleeper in fantasy? I
actually don’t know what the true definition is, but by my calculation it’s a
player that greatly outperforms their draft day position. These are players
that are not expected to perform to the same value as players taken well ahead
of them.
For example, let’s take a look at last
year; the Saints rookie wide receiver Michael Thomas per Fantasy Football
Calculator had an overall ADP of 123.5 going behind players like Markus Wheaton
and Kamar Aiken. Thomas finished 2016 as the number 7 wide receiver in PPR (per
Fantasy Pros).
This years crops of candidates that I
believe will outperform their current ADP include the Redskins wide receiver
Pierre Garcon (79 receptions, 1,046 yards receiving in 2016). After finishing
the season as the number 23 fantasy receiver in PPR (per Fantasy Data), his
current ADP of 88.8 (per FFC) puts him around the 8th and 9th rounds of most
drafts and the number 36 receiver (a WR3/WR4) being taken off the board. Garcon
is in a new place but playing for a familiar face; head coach Kyle Shanahan.
When the two last got together in Washington back in 2013, Garcon posted a stat
line of 182 targets, 113 receptions, 1,346 yards receiving, and 5 touchdowns.
This season he is in line to take on the primary receiver role in San
Francisco, so we can expect to see him numbers rise significantly from a year
ago.
Over in Arizona, they have an explosive
and talented receiver in John Brown, current ADP 106.7 (per FFC). Last season
Brown struggled with health issues finishing with just 39 catches, 517 yards
receiving, and 2 touchdowns; good enough to finish well outside the top 50
fantasy receivers in PPR. Rumors are Brown has worked extremely hard this
offseason to get himself healthy, stronger, and back on the field. There’s no
question that Brown (65 catches, 1,003 yards receiving, 7 touchdowns in 2015)
has the skills and ability to be a difference maker. Brown does come with some
risk, but with Larry Fitzgerald a little older, Michael Floyd gone, this season
would appear to be a great opportunity for JB to shine (if he can stay
healthy).
That’s My Take
~David Ortega
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