FSH NOTEBOOK: THE FOUR HORSEMEN

Sunday Edition
November 11th, 2012  

The Four Horsemen

Last week my horsemen were gangbusters riding high led by quarterback Peyton Manning and his 25 fantasy points (standard scoring). Wide receiver DeSean Jackson (16 fantasy points) and running back Arian Foster (17 fantasy points) also helped pace this small brigade.

Week 10 presents some key matchups, but we’ll be expecting nothing less than solid performances from our four riders as they get set to mount up in just a few short hours.

My week 10 fantasy picks…

Quarterback (Eli Manning, NYG)
Last week it was big brother, this week we are looking for little brother Eli Manning to step up with a huge performance this week. Eli and company are on the road today to face the Bengals 18th ranked pass defense. Manning is coming off a very poor performance and will look to rebound. The Bengals allow the 12th most fantasy points to quarterbacks; Manning will be looking to raise that number.

Running Back (Stevan Ridley, NE)
The Patriots are at home today and the Bills are coming to town. This is great news for running back Stevan Ridley. The Bills are ranked 31st against the run, they allow nearly 170 yards on the ground every week and have given up a league high 14 rushing touchdowns. Ridley has been fantastic in the run game for the Patriots and will see plenty of carries today. He has over 700 yards rushing this season and averages 4.7 yards per carry. His five touchdowns pace the Patriots ground attack; expect Ridley to pace the team today.

Wide Receiver (Kenny Britt, TEN)
The Titans are on the road to face the Dolphins 30th ranked pass defense today and wide receiver Kenny Britt can’t wait. Finally as close to 100% health as he has been all season, Britt will also see the return of his starting quarterback Jake Locker. Locker is the younger and stronger arm under center for the Titans, and he should enable Britt to take advantage of the Dolphins secondary that allows the 4th most fantasy points to wide receivers. It's time for Britt to return to form.

Tight End (Zach Miller, SEA)
The seldom used tight end Zach Miller could suddenly erupt into a fantasy gem today when the Seahawks meet the Jets. Miller has only 8 targets in the last games, but that could change today. The Jets defense allows the 3rd most fantasy points to tight ends and this season have surrendered 6 touchdowns. Miller has just one touchdown grab this season, but he could add to that total today.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FIVE

Friday Edition

September 28th, 2012  

FSH Fantasy Five

Week 4 Running Backs

Week 4 has some interesting twists and matchups, but with three weeks in the books (nearly a quarter of the regular season), we have a much better feel of what to expect….or do we?

Cedric Benson, GB

There’s absolutely no reason to believe that (head coach) Mike McCarthy’s Packers are going to change anything about how they attack opposing defenses, but I definitely think he’s not too smart for his own good. The Packers throw the ball and just about better than anyone else in the league, but facing the league’s worst run defense this week, they will run; enter Mr. Benson. Cedric is not off to a hot start this season, but he’s shown he can still be productive when called on; in week 2 he toted the rock 20 times for 81 yards. This week against the Saints (allowing 5 yards per carry) Benson should have little trouble finding running room; he’s a good low end RB2 this week.

Alfred Morris, WAS

The Redskins main guy in the backfield, rookie running back Alfred Morris is enjoying a solid 2012 campaign, ranked 9th in rushing with three touchdowns and a solid 4.3 yards per carry average. On Sunday he’ll line up in the backfield set to take on the Buccaneers stout number one ranked run defense. Morris is not going to find too many holes on Sunday, but facing the Bucs shaky secondary (ranked last in the league) the Redskins should still enjoy plenty of success moving the ball, putting Morris in line to add to his three scores this season. He’s not going to tally big numbers on the ground, but Morris should still be a safe low end RB2 play this week.

Stevan Ridley, NE

Ranked 11th in rushing this season (233 yards rushing), with five receptions for another 51 yards, the Patriots running back Stevan Ridley is finding plenty of ways to stay productive on Sunday. He’s only managed to cross the goal line once this season, but facing the Bills 15th ranked run defense (17th overall), I like Ridley’s chances to find pay-dirt at least once on Sunday. I am not too high on this kid this week, but I think Ridley will manage 80-plus yards with a score; a safe RB2 this week.

Willis McGahee, DEN

Despite the injury concerns surrounding Broncos running back Willis McGahee, he is expected to play and should play well this Sunday against the league’s 23rd ranked defense. The Raiders have issues in the secondary and could be in for a long afternoon trying to cover the Bronco’s receivers. With success in the air, holes should be open for McGahee to find and even a couple of trips into the red zone. I expect to see McGahee get at least one in the end-zone this week against the Raiders run defense that has already yielded four touchdowns on the ground this season; start him.

Maurice Jones-Drew

The Jaguars offense has been far from fantasy stellar this season, but they have not been all that bad, especially running back Maurice Jones-Drew (ranked 3rd in rushing). Mo-Jo may have held out, but it looks like he kept in pretty good shape tallying 314 yards thus far this season on the ground. MJD has also kept himself active in the pass game with 8 receptions in three games. He’ll face the leagues 31st ranked run defense (Bengals) that is allowing a whopping 5.8 yards per carry and over 150 yards on the ground per contest. It’s never easy to predict big games, but it’s easy to say Mo-Jo is a solid RB1 this week.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FOOTBALL NOTES

September 7TH, 2011 Wednesday

FANTASY FOOTBALL NOTES

We are less than one day away from the official start of the 2011 NFL season. Even though most fantasy drafts should be complete by this point, it’s still worth taking a look and quick peek into most backfields to see what ball carriers will rise, fall, and emerge this season. Here’s my run on this year’s running backs.

Let’s just put the argument to rest, when you start at the top, you have to start with Adrian Peterson. He seems to be the consensus number one is most every league I have seen. He’s a feature back, has no serious injury concerns heading into the season, and has scored 54 touchdowns in four seasons. AP will lead the pack, but running backs Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, and Ray Rice are not far behind.

From there you will get into the MJD’s, LeSean McCoy’s and Peyton Hillis’ who will round out the top 20 to 25. Once we get into the third and fourth tier of running backs , the talent pool will shallow out, and that’s when you have to start doing some digging.

DEEP IN THE BACKFIELD

It’s been what seems like a very short and very quick preseason, but in the four weeks of action one running back in a crowded backfield in Washington has really caught my eye; Tim Hightower. He’s certainly not the cream of the crop, but he has been impressive thus far and in a Shanahan “run-system” he could really fare well. Hightower averaged nearly seven yards per carry facing mostly first string defenses and his versatility as a pass catcher (63 receptions in 2009) could find him spending quite of bit of time on the field. He’s not going to be a feature back, but he looks like a good call to see the lion’s share of work; at least early in the season.

Another ball carrier that has turned my head is the Bronco’s third year running back Knowshon Moreno. Now most folks figure with the arrival of John Fox, the Bronco’s offense is going to become more of a ground attack, but the addition of Willis McGahee does not necessarily mean a time-share. In Carolina Fox had two relative young backs to feed the rock, but in Denver McGahee enters his 9th season and does not figure to step into an expanded role. Moreno has been impressive this preseason and has a well balanced skill-set in the run and pass game. He may lose a few short-yardage and goal line carries to McGahee, but he still figures to see plenty of work. If he can stay healthy, he’s easily a top 15 back this season.

The Packers have the luxury of healing in the offseason, but for running back Ryan Grant that may not be enough. Last season 2nd year back James Starks stepped up and played well for the Pack in the post season and could very well figure into the team’s plans this season. From what I have read, heard, and seen I would not be surprised to see Starks starting at some point this season and more likely sooner than later.

Along with these potential diamonds in the rough, a couple of kids I would watch heavily leading into week one, Bernard Scott of the Bengals and rookie Stevan Ridley of the Patriots. Both teams don’t have a clear cut dominant runner that they will lean on heavily and both these kids could just be hungry enough to work their way into the spotlight.

If Benson can’t keep his name out of the paper in non-related football news, Scott’s time could come much sooner than expected. The team sounds like they are very high on Ridley; the power back just needs to keep “doing the right things” and his time will come.

There aren’t too many names that I am necessarily down on this year, but as good as Saints running back Mark Ingram is, I am not buying all that cool-aid that is being sold. Ingram is going to be productive this season, but I am just not so sure that Pierre Thomas is done. As long as Thomas is healthy, he’ll remain an integral part of the offense as well. That’s just my thoughts on that subject and these are my takes in the backfield.

By David Ortega