FSH NOTEBOOK: FF WEEK 5 STARTS

October 7th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Late-Evening Edition

Fantasy Football Week 5

Start’Ems

We are now getting into the “Bye Weeks” of the NFL season and fantasy owners are now going to have to navigate with key players on bye and look to the waiver wire and free agent market to fill out their lineups. There are several key injuries this week that are going to impact many lineups; in Detroit wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown likely sits, Joe Burrow’s calf injury has fantasy owners weighing their choices this week, and in addition to St. Brown the Lions will likely be without their rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring).

Other notable week 5 injuries;

Jimmy Garappolo (concussion) P

Joe Burrow (calf) Q

Derek Carr (shoulder) Q

Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring) D

Javonte Williams (quad) Q

Aaron Jones (hamstring) Q

Saquon Barkley (ankle) Q

Davante Adams (shoulder) Q

Amon-Ra St. Brown (abdomen) D

Tee Higgins (ribs) O

Pat Freiermuth (hamstring) O

My week 5 Starts

While fantasy owners will likely be moving the listed players to their bench, these are a handful of Starts that should be in play for Week 5.

CJ Stroud (Texans) - The rookie quarterback is healthy and looks great thru the first four weeks. Stroud has entered the starting fantasy QB conversation with his four week numbers; 1,212 yards passing (5th), 6 passing touchdowns (5th), and 110.65 passer rating (9th). He’s been sharp, consistent, and exciting to watch. With wins over Jacksonville and Pittsburgh in this early season, Stroud has the Texans playing good football at the moment. 

Stroud is currently the fantasy QB12. My projections for him this week are weighed more on how he’s been playing, rather than who he is facing. The Falcons have been a bit stingy this season versus opposing quarterbacks, but from what I’ve seen so far in the early part of this season, the Texans offense may be the biggest test for them thus far. Stroud has just been solid and he’s got some great weapons to work with in Nico Collins, Robert Woods, Tank Dell, and Dalton Schultz. 

If the Texans can get any semblance of a running game going this week, Stroud could be in for a big day off the play-action and hit a couple of deep shots. He’s a start for me this week.

De’Von Achane (Dolphins) - The rookie running back has been quite special the past couple of weeks. Like all big dawgs, you just gotta keep feeding him. Achane’s 2023 start was slowed with an injury that kept him sidelined in week one and limited to 6 snaps in week 2. Once they turned him loose in week 3, he was gone.

Achane has seen snapcounts of 30 (41%)  in week 3 and 39 (60%) in week 4,  and his numbers have been prolific. The rookie has toted the rock 26 times for 304 yards the past two weeks and his 309 total rushing yards leads the AFC. The critical stat to pay close attention to is his 60% snapcount share in week 4. Teammate Raheem Mostert fumbled twice, which contributed to Achane’s extended time on the field, but it is his talent that will keep him there.

This week’s matchup with the Giants is just way too sweet to avoid. Achane has to be in seasonal lineups as well as DFS. The Giants defense is ranked 29th versus the run and surrenders well over 4 yards per carry. I expect to see Achane getting in the action early and often and doing lots of damage. He’s a week 5 must-start for me. Start Achane.

Marquise Brown (Cardinals) - The Cardinals wide receiver is an interesting play for week 5. Quietly he is currently the fantasy WR22 with 21 receptions and 239 receiving yards to lead his team. He also has two receiving touchdowns.

Over his last three games played, “Hollywood” is averaging 9 targets, six receptions, and 70 receiving yards per game, which include his two touchdowns. During this stretch his numbers are a borderline WR-1/WR2.

While he does have what could be considered a tough matchup this week, Brown and his quarterback have been playing well over the past several weeks. With a home tilt on the slate for week 5, I feel good about his chances to put up good numbers once again. Hollywood should be in lineups and a good DFS value play. Start Hollywood.

Sam LaPorta (Lions) - The Lions rookie tight end has been spectacular this season. Through the first four weeks he is fantasy TE4, tied with the Vikings tight end TJ Hockenson. His 242 yards receiving leads all tight ends in the NFL and his 22 receptions ranks third.

LaPorta has an interesting matchup this week against the Panthers. Their defense does a decent job against opposing tight ends, but they have yet to face a tight end with LaPorta’s production level. With the exception of Hockenson, who the Panthers held in check last week.

With a depleted receiving corps in Detroit this week, I am expecting to see an even more involved LaPorta (27 targets this season - ranks 5th). Through the first four weeks Sammy has been good, he could be even better in week 5. Start Sam LaPorta in week 5.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega