August 6th, 2017
Sunday Night Edition
Early Round Draft Strategy
As is it does every year, draft strategy
changes and this season fantasy owners will need to be as savvy as ever. Not
only do we (as I am a fantasy owner as well) need to be savvy, but our strategy
will need to be ever evolving throughout our pending drafts. One thing we all
learn in fantasy drafts, someone is always going to reach and someone is always
start the early run.
This season I will be playing in several
money leagues once again and will likely engage in several NFL public leagues
to keep my skills sharp as a dull blade.
Looking at my first scheduled 10-team
league draft this coming Saturday, this is a QB-heavy scoring league; one point
per yard, so the signal callers rack up the points.
Unlike most of the other leagues I will
play in this season, but similar to QB leagues, this league the top tier
quarterbacks (Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees) will be premium.
Because we only play one quarterback though, drafting strategies and trends
will in many ways resemble what you might see in standard or common PPR (½
point or full point) draft.
In this format, if you are sitting at the
top of the draft it is prudent to target one of the top skill plays like
running backs David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, and Antonio Brown. Your position
puts you at the bottom of the 2nd round in a traditional snake-draft, so taking
a quarterback too early will leave you bottom feeding (finding less value) for
your number one receiver and number one running back. This especially hurts
when you are passing on an Ezekiel Elliott and/or Julio Jones.
For the league I am playing in, typically
it might seem too early to grab a quarterback in the first round, but here it
makes sense at the tail-end of the 1st. Arms like Brady and Rodgers looked
poised for big seasons, and Brees is Mr. 5000 yards, so from the 8th spot on
you can still come back with a top 8 receiver or running back at the top of the
2nd round.
There is going to be depth at the skill
positions which may lean some of us into taking Brady and/or Rodgers in the late
first or early second. Players you could be looking at in the 3rd and 4th
rounds (in 10-team leagues) are looking like Lamar Miller, Brandin Cooks, Amari
Cooper, Carlos Hyde, Alshon Jeffrey, and DeAndre Hopkins.
If you pass on a quarterback early, based
on current ADP you should be fine waiting until the 5th or 6th to target the
next tier of arms (i.e. Matt Ryan, Derek Carr, and Russell Wilson).
Quarterbacks like Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton, and Kirk Cousins are going
even later.
Unless you are targeting tight end Rob
Gronkowski early, there will be value available beyond the early rounds, so
fill your backfield early and get your wideouts on the field.
We’re just getting the conversation
started with drafts opening up all over and these are just a few of my thoughts
of early draft strategy. As the days pass and as drafts are completed I will be
sharing more thoughts on strategy and players I like and where I will be taking
them.
That’s my take.
~David Ortega
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