Thursday, August 31, 2017

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 31st 2017
Thursday Night Edition





Fantasy Draft Watch


Draft day is winding down as we inch closer to kickoff, just a little under a week away. Even with only one weekend left before the season starts, there are plenty of drafts to be had and to be dominated.

I’m not saying any of these guys will put you over the top, but here are a few players that I believe are going to ball hard this season.

There’s been a lot of changes in Philly this off-season, but one staple 2nd year quarterback Carson Wentz will have to rely on is tight end Zach Ertz. Last season Ertz turned in a line of 78-816-4 on 106 targets, good enough for the No. 6 fantasy tight end in PPR. The talk around the water cooler is Ertz should be even more involved in the passing game seeing an even larger share of targets this season. With good enough numbers for the number six spot last season, Ertz  has an ADP of 7.06 (the No. 8 tight end) according to FFC, making him a solid value around the middle of the 7th or early 8th round.

In Minnesota there’s not been a lot of talk, or at least I am not hearing a lot about wide receiver Stefon Diggs. The Vikings 3rd year receiver has been on the rise since he arrived in 2015 with his targets, receptions, and yards receiving increasing each season. Last season he posted an 84-903-3 line on 112 targets and could easily see a bump in volume and better numbers. Last season Diggs finished as the league’s No. 30 fantasy receiver in PPR and is currently being drafted as the No. 25 fantasy receiver (according to FFC); he's going off the board around players like Sammy Watkins, Brandon Marshall, Allen Robinson, and Jarvis Landry. He’s in pretty good company, but I like Diggs potential especially returning this season with quarterback Sam Bradford under center. I am taking Diggs ahead of the others mentioned here.

Plodding along, another receiver who has been hyped in the past, so fantasy owners have to ask is there more smoke this season or do we actually have a fire? In the case of Dolphins wide receiver Devante Parker, it could finally be fire we see this season with the arrival of quarterback Jay Cutler. Parker is a big target and it’s no secret that Cutler likes those big targets downfield. The Dolphins big wideout is going to be Cutler’s primary downfield target which is why I love Parker at his current ADP (5.06 according to FFC), the No. 27 fantasy receiver off the board. He’s being drafted as a high-WR3 who easily has a high-end WR2 upside in PPR formats (and a tick higher in standard). I am high on this kid.

Deep Sleeper

Now this one may be nothing more than a dart throw and best in Best Ball drafts or deeper leagues, but there’s something to be said about Niners wide receiver Marquise Goodwin. It’s not a large sample size, but Goodwin and quarterback Brian Hoyer have shown some nice preseason chemistry. Goodwin has been targeted 8 times this preseason with a line of 5-104-1. I don’t see him as a heavy volume guy, more of a big play guy. In 2016 he caught 29 balls for 431 yards receiving and three touchdowns, good enough for 14.9 per catch. His career high in touchdowns is the three he posted last season, but I can easily see him surpassing that total this season, maybe double. Again, I see him as a late round flier in deep leagues or or a sneaky Best ball play, but he’s definitely worth keeping an eye on as a possible streaming option through the byes.

IDP Notes

For those of you that enjoy fantasy football as much as I do, there is also the IDP (Individual Defensive Players) format to enjoy. And yes plenty to talk about there with the season fast approaching.

Dynamic Duo

With 2nd year player Joey Bosa showing so much promise last season (his fantasy stock is rising fast) finishing with 10.5 sacks, he’ll anchor one side of the Chargers defense with teammate Melvin Ingram (8.0 sacks last season) on the other side. Last season Bosa closed out his 2016 campaign with at least a half sack in 6 straight games. He has the look of a game-changer as an elite pass-rusher and there’s no reason fantasy owners shouldn’t expect to see him take another step forward in 2017. He should go early in IDP drafts, first rounder in IDP only drafts.

On the other side, defensive lineman Melvin Ingram is another stud pass rusher coming off a solid campaign last season. Ingram is entering his 6th season, having turned in 18.5 sacks over the past two seasons. His production has been steady since 2015 and with the arrival of Bosa, 2017 looks to be another solid year for Ingram. Like Bosa, he’s an early IDP selection; in IDP only leagues he’s a mid-to-low 2nd rounder in my opinion.

That’s My Take


~David Ortega



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