Thursday, September 5, 2013

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Wednesday Edition
September 5th, 2013
 





David’s Daily Digest


Not-So-Bold-Predictions
For Thursday Night

We are less than 24 hours from Kick-off and the Water-Cooler lines have to be running around the block by now; with fantasy football the leading and only topic. Tomorrow night it all kicks off with the Ravens and Broncos squaring off at Mile High; and what more appropriate place for the 2013 NFL (and Fantasy) Football season to get started.

As if fantasy owners needed any more reasons to salivate, but give them Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense at home to kick-start the season and we are talking plenty of fireworks and lots of points (we like points).

So let’s get to it; no surprises here. Give Manning weapons and one of the best offensive lines in the business and you can expect production and lots of it. Fantasy owners will be starting Manning at the new Peyton’s Place and even facing the defending champs we can expect big numbers. Peyton will have plenty of weapons at his disposal and with numerous options I like DT (Demaryrius Thomas) and (Eric) Decker to see plenty of targets and at least one trip to the end zone for each. Welker (Manning’s newest toy) will play well, but he’ll offer greater value in PPR snagging 6-8 balls (although I wouldn’t think for anymore than 70-80 yards). Tight End Julius Thomas is big, physical, and athletic, but owners may want to temper their expectations and see how this ride handles before going all-in early.

The Broncos running game is a bit of an enigma with lots of questions. We could be looking at the newest Rubik’s cube unless one of the Broncos young horses finds a way to gallop some distant from their competition. This play may be safest to steer away from for now, but if you play in a deep league and must start one my favorite is Hillman. As long as he takes care of the ball he has great explosion and is a threat to break one. The rookie (Montee Ball) could show greatest value in PPR, if he can improve his pass protection and get on the field during passing downs.

Without linebacker Von Miller the Denver defense takes a hit, and might not be one of your better values for week 1. With that said, quarterback Joe Flacco and company could have success in the air, although the only reliable play in the passing game I see is Torrey Smith (should be a safe week 1 start as a low WR2). Flacco on the other hand is probably best on your bench this week.

The versatility of running back Ray Rice always makes him a solid start each week. He should be solid out of the backfield for owners in PPR leagues. His ground numbers could be held in check, but I don’t see the Broncos keeping him out of the end zone. Bernard Pierce will definitely see some action, but I don’t see him doing enough damage to be worthy of starting in week 1 on the road.

Other starts and sits for Thursday include (Broncos); Start-Manning, D. Thomas, Decker, and Welker (PPR). Sit-J. Thomas, Tamme, Moreno. (Ravens) Start-Rice, Smith. Sit-Flacco, Pierce, Jones, Dickson.

That’s my take.



~David Ortega

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