Tuesday Edition
October 30th, 2012
David's Daily Digest
The Week in Review
Breaking Down my Week 8 Picks
As I do each and every week, it’s time to take a look back and see how I did. Each week you have to look back at the past so you can learn from your triumphs and mistakes.
My Week8 Duds
Week 8 produce quite a few names to make this list and for many fantasy owners, this was not good. Tight end Antonio Gates pulled a disappearing act on Sunday against the Browns turning in a two catch effort. Fantasy owners were hit hard with disappointment, but Gates has no apparent injury that would suggest this type of slump will continue.
Like Gates, the Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown was another disappointment on Sunday. The Steelers wideout snagged four passes for just 38 yards; far below his expected output. Fantasy owners can relax, Brown was still targeted six times and will continue to see plenty of activity his direction. The six targets were a season low, likely because the Steelers were up big and riding the ground game.
The Browns rookie receiver Josh Gordon was a big dud on Sunday after coming off a three-game scoring streak. Gordon was held in check with just three catches for 46 yards. Gordon is second among receivers on the team with 41 targets this season and has been seeing more looks his direction. Unfortunately there is too much inconsistency with the Browns offense at this time to consider Gordon reliable.
My Week 8 Studs
Unfortunately the list here is not long, but it is notable. The Eagles running back LeSean McCoy was his shady self on Sunday finding the end zone twice. McCoy has not had many big games yet this season, but he is the focal point of the Eagles ground attack and has the versatility to be involved in the passing game. Sunday’s performance was just a small taste of more to come.
The Lions quarterback Matt Stafford erupted for a four touchdown performance on Sunday (3 passing, 1 rushing) against a formidable foe in the Seahawks defense. Stafford had not looked very sharp through the first seven weeks, but his monster game on Sunday could be a great indication of what fantasy owners can expect in the second half of the season.
While the Broncos freakish receiver Demaryrius Thomas is grabbing headlines on one side, the Broncos other receiver Eric Decker is quietly holding his own. Against the Saints Decker pulled down just four passes on six targets, but two went for scores. With DT presenting matchup problems for opposing defenses Decker stands to see more games such as this one; he’s a low WR2 going forward.
By David Ortega
Tuesday Edition
October 30th, 2012
By the Numbers
When you know all the facts, there’s no escaping the truth and numbers seldom lie. Taking a look at how players are performing in fantasy scoring is typically in direct proportion to their opportunity. The more chances afforded a player the more likely he will produce. If you are a gambler, you like to play with the odds that are in your favor.
Here’s the week 8 breakdown of the numbers….
Targets (the past four weeks)
Over the past month, some names of notable mention include Mike Williams (TB), Titus Young (DET), and Cecil Shorts (JAX). These are not your regular household names, but increased involvement has made them more than relevant over the past several weeks.
A couple of names that could be joining the conversation soon could include Jeremy Kerley and Andre Roberts. Both are top 30 WR’s over the past four weeks, but could see a production boost if their target numbers continue. At the moment, neither is nothing more than a possible flex option fill, but keep watching.
Weekly Target average:
1. Brandon Marshall, WR (13.66 targets per game)
2. Reggie Wayne, WR (13.00 targets per game)
3. Marques Colston, WR (12.66 targets per game)
4. Steve Smith (CAR), WR (12.66 targets per game)
5. Wes Welker, WR (11.50 targets per game)
6. Larry Fitzgerald, WR (11.25 targets per game)
7. Percy Harvin, WR (10.25 targets per game)
8. Victor Cruz, WR (10.00 targets per game)
9. Jeremy Kerley, WR (9.25 targets per game)
T-10. Andre Roberts, WR (9.00 targets per game)
Mike Wallace, WR (9.00 targets per game)
Some additional PPR numbers…
Top targeted RB’s past four weeks
1. Darren Sproles, NO (6.66 targets per game)
2. Fred Jackson, BUF (6.00 targets per game)
3. Darren McFadden, OAK (5.66 targets per game)
3. Ryan Matthews, SDC (5.66 targets per game)
3. Rashad Jennings, JAX (5.66 targets per game)
3. Ronnie Brown, SDC (5.66 targets per game)
Top targeted TE’s past four weeks
1. Jason Witten, DAL (12.33 targets per game)
2. Rob Gronkowski, NEP (8.75 targets per game)
3. Tony Gonzales, ATL (8.66 targets per game)
4. Brandon Pettigrew, DET (7.33 targets per game)
5. Antonio Gates, SDC (7.00 targets per game)
5. Heath Miller, PIT (7.00 targets per game)
Touches (the past four weeks)
An important factor in a running back’s success is developing a rhythm and building momentum during the game; for some the more touches the better they get. These are the most active in the backfield over the past month.
While his numbers have not been strong the past couple of weeks Alex Green gets plenty of work, enough to keep him in the top 25 (over the past month). Like Green in Green Bay, Shonn Greene in New York has been seeing plenty of action himself. His workload has help him produce at a top 5 level for the past weeks and has shot him up the board inside the top 15 for the season. With Richardson returning in week 8 and running well, with this average fantasy owners can expect to see his production also rise.
Average Carries with Catches:
1. Darren McFadden, RB (28.66 touches per game)
2. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB (25.00 touches per game)
3. Arian Foster, RB (22.66 touches per game)
4. Adrian Peterson, RB (21.25 touches per game)
5. Alex Green, RB (20.75 touches per game)
6. Chris Johnson, RB (20.25 touches per game)
7. Stevan Ridley, RB (19.25 touches per game)
8. Shonn Greene, RB (20.00 touches per game)
9. Alfred Morris, RB (18.25 touches per game)
10. Trent Richardson, RB (18.25 touches per game)
Passing Attempts (the past four weeks)
What we have learned through 8 weeks in the season, regardless of what the Cowboys and quarterback Tony Romo would like to do, the boys in big D tend to throw the ball. Romo’s numbers are bordering mediocre with only 4 touchdowns and 5 interceptions over the past month, but it’s hard to deny his upside with all the weapons he has and when he’s putting it up 40 plus times a game.
If you looking for that back-up for insurance or if you are currently struggling with a Philip Rivers or Cam Newton, going by the numbers with his 40 plus attempts per game rookie quarterback Andrew Luck is worth a look performing at a top five fantasy level the past four weeks.
Average passing attempts:
1. Matthew Stafford, DET (46.66 passing attempts per game)
2. Tony Romo, DAL (44.00 passing attempts per game)
3. Tom Brady, NEP (41.50 passing attempts per game)
4. Drew Brees, NOS (41.33 passing attempts per game)
5. Andrew Luck, IND (41.50 passing attempts per game)
6. Matt Ryan, ATL (39.33 passing attempts per game)
7. Andy Dalton, CIN (39.00 passing attempts per game)
8. Philip Rivers, SDC (39.00 passing attempts per game)
9. Matt Hasselbeck, TEN (37.25 passing attempts per game)
10. Michael Vick, PHI (37.00 passing attempts per game)
These are the week 8 facts, By The Numbers.
By David Ortega
Monday Edition
October 29th, 2012
David's Daily Digest
Monday’s Fantasy Headlines
Manning the Great
There weren’t too many folks that believed we’d be seeing the old Manning return this season and maybe we haven’t, but the 2012 version looks pretty good. Sunday night against the Saints Peyton recorded his 5th straight 300-yard passing game and his three touchdowns passing were his fourth straight game with as many. Manning may not have that old form, but the form he’s working with should do just fine for fantasy owners going forward.
A Young Man’s Game
The Detroit Lions 2nd year receiver Titus Young has his coming out party on Sunday and it could not come at a better time. Young set his season highs in receptions (9), receiving yards (100), and touchdowns (2) on Sunday in the Lions win over the Seahawks. Young has quietly become a bigger part of the offense and with Nate Burleson (injury) sidelined for the remainder of the season and Megatron drawing mega coverage, Young will continue to benefit greatly and get better.
It’s Gronk Time Again
The Patriots big tight end Rob Gronkowski looked more like the Gronk from 2011 on Sunday recording his second consecutive two-score game; last season he had a total of seven multiple score games. With the bye week ahead Gronk and company will have time to heal and can be expected to continue their great play in the second half of the season.
The Rookie Finds His Legs
The Browns rookie running back Trent Richardson may not be completely healthy, but on Sunday against the Chargers he found his running legs. Richardson broke loose for 122 yards and a score on 24 carries. If this kid can get healthier, he’s in line to have more Sunday’s like this.
The Old Man Has Some Juice Left
The Broncos offense may be going a bit retro with Willis McGahee leading the backfield, but the former Miami Hurricane is showing he’s got plenty left in his tank. Sunday night against the Saints McGahee rambled his way to 122 yards on the ground and adding his fourth rushing touchdown of the season. With Peyton under center playing as well as he is, McGahee should continue to find holes and produce numbers for fantasy owners.
Dougie Fresh Gettin Down
The Buccaneers have found a ground game this season in rookie running back Doug Martin who recorded his first 100-yard rushing game last Thursday night. Martin also showed his versatility with a 79-yard receiving effort in the Bucs upset over the Vikings. Martin is quickly developing into a complete back in both the run and pass game, I’d expect to the see the Bucs getting him involved early and often.
A Lions Roar Heard on Sunday
The Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford has had a rough and inconsistent start to his 2012 season, but Sunday may have just been the jump started needed to get things rolling. Against a stout Seahawks defense Stafford was better than good torching the secondary for 352 yards, completing 34 of 49 passes. Stafford added three passing scores to go with a rushing score. If Stafford can continue to find this form going forward, he should pay-off big for fantasy owners that used a high draft selection to get him.
By David Ortega
Monday Edition
October 29th, 2012
David’s Daily Digest
MNF Quick Notes
With two of the leagues best defenses taking the field, tonight’s matchup will feature more defense than anything else, so expect fantasy points to be tough to come by.
These are my takes for tonight’s Monday Night Matchup.
Running back Frank Gore is going to have a tough go finding yards tonight against the Cardinals stout defense, but he should get plenty of touches tonight to be productive. Gore is averaging an impressive 5.8 yards per carry and has scored four times this season to go along with his 603 yards rushing. The 49ers ball carrier has three 100-yard rushing games this season and facing the Cardinals 21st ranked defense against the run, he could be in line for possibly another. Even if Gore doesn’t top the century mark, he’ll compile enough numbers with some grabs and a score to get the job done.
The Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald is nearly impossible to stop, but tonight he lines up against the leagues number one pass defense. Consistency and pass protection will be key if Fitzgerald is going to be a factor tonight. It’s a tough start for Larry Fitz and based on how inconsistent the offense has played of late, it could be feast or famine tonight. The good news, in his last two matchups with the Niners Fitzgerald has enjoyed some success; in particular last season at home with Skelton under center he totaled 7 catches for 149 yards and a score. I’d expect Skelton to look Fitzgerald’s way early and often, the faster he gets involved the more things can open up for the offense.
One of the reasons and components that will help the Cardinals offense succeed tonight is the emergence of wide receiver Andre Roberts. Fitzgerald will get his looks and produce his numbers on the other side, but Roberts is going to help that cause by playing well on his side. Roberts is coming off a fine week 7 effort (7 rec, 103 yards, TD) and should get favorable coverage tonight to be a factor. A couple of grabs and some nice yards won’t propel him into any starting spots on fantasy rosters, but he could make a nice flex play going forward.
Other than their ground attack, the Niners offense doesn’t leave much to be desired. The Cardinals boast a pretty good secondary themselves ranked 4th this season. Alex Smith has regressed the past several weeks with just one touchdown and four picks in his last two starts. The Cardinals are going to bring pressure tonight and try to force Smith to make mistakes. Smith is capable of handling pressure and playing well, but the Niners are a running offense, so numbers by the air are few. Other than tight end Vernon Davis (no catches last week) and wide receiver Michael Crabtree (57 yards receiving in his last two games) who are notable “play at your own risk”, the Niners offense doesn’t boast any fantasy worthy plays at the receiver position at this time.
Since tonight will feature some great defensive play and outstanding IDP’s, it only makes sense to give a shout out to a couple of studs linebackers we will be seeing a lot of tonight. For the Cardinals Daryl Washington is have a great season leading the team with 62 combined tackles and six sacks this season. On the 49ers sideline, NaVorro Bowman is having himself a great season as well, leading the defense with 67 combined tackles. Both must-play studs will be flying all over the field and at the center of all the action tonight. You will undoubtedly hear their names called a lot.
By David Ortega
Sunday Edition
October 28th, 2012
David’s Daily Digest
Fantasy Notes & Predictions
Week 8 Faves
Big Ben (Roethlisberger) is facing the leagues’ worst pass defense and he has arguably the fastest man in football (Mike Wallace) lining up out wide. Big Ben has had a couple of big games this season and should produce another 3-touchdown and 300 yard game today.
The Broncos don’t get it on until the night cap with the Saints and at that time quarterback Peyton Manning could be lining up under center on his way to a huge evening. The Saints allow the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and tonight they and Peyton should not disappoint. Manning should be good for 275 yards passing and three scores.
The Jaguars defense has just been bad this season and with wide receiver Jordy Nelson on the sideline, Randall Cobb should step in big today. The Jaguars have the 24th ranked pass defense and Cobb and Rodgers should take advantage. Cobb has been in play the past several week, expect more of the same; 9 receptions, 120 yards receiving and a score.
The Chargers running back Ryan Matthews has a nice matchup today on the road facing the Browns 24th ranked run defense. The Chargers offense has been a little erratic this season, so expect Rivers and company to play more ball control with Matthews; 100-yards on the ground with a touchdown for Ryan should be the ticket.
The Raiders running back Darren McFadden has been waiting to breakout this season and today’s matchup with the Chiefs could be the game. The Chiefs defense allows the 6th most fantasy points to running backs and gives up 125 yards rushing per game. Run-DMC should net his second 100-yard game this season with a couple of scores.
By David Ortega
