THURSDAY'S FANTASY TAKEWAY

September 12, 2015
Saturday

Thursday's Fantasy Takeaway

Seeing as this is Saturday, this one is coming out a little late, but if there was anything to learn from Thursday night's matchup between the Patriots and Steelers, one thing for sure is not to bet against quarterback Tom Brady. Maybe the NFL also learned, don't make Brady mad, the rest of the league won't like him when he's mad.

A fired up Brady not only beat the NFL in "Deflate-Gate," beat the Steelers on Thursday night, but with guns-blazing he sent a message to the rest of the league; take notice Brady is in charge. In total command, Brady shredded the Steelers secondary for four touchdowns (three going to Gronk), completing 25 of 32 passes (78.1 completion percentage) and throwing for 288 yards. His 143.8 passer rating was his best week 1 rating, since 2007 (he had a week 1 passer rating of 146.6 and finished the season with 50 touchdowns and over 4,800 yards passing).

Just as many of us would have speculated, his favorite targets on Thursday night were tight end Rob Gronkowski (8 targets) and wide receiver Julian Edelman (12 targets). Both finished with strong nights to no surprise. 

On the other side, Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown posted strong numbers (9 receptions, 133 yards receiving, and a score) as would be expected, but the pleasant surprise there was tight end Heath Miller's 11 targets for 8 receptions and 84 yards receiving. Miller's numbers were not exactly off the charts and likely the benefit of "lack of options" for Big Ben (quarterback Ben Roethlisberger) with wide receiver Martavis Bryant and running back Le'Veon Bell both out due to suspension, but they are noteworthy for week 2.

While many saw a lot of what we might expect fromt he big names, perhaps the biggest fantasy takeway was not Gronk's dominance, not Brady's command, or big Ben's 38 passes for 351 yards, but rather the Steelers weak secondary.

The Steelers corners allowed 14 of 16 passes to receivers to be completed for 130 yards, over 9 yards per catch. The secondary also allowed three touchdowns to the tight end, and up front failed to bring any real pressure to the quarterback. Add up these numbers and this could be fantasy hog heaven for owners with players facing the Steelers.

Looking ahead, take note fantasy owners;

Week 2, @St.Louis (TE Jared Cook could be interesting)
Week 4, @San Diego (WR Keenan Allen in the red-zone)
Week 5, vs Arizona (WR John Brown could duplicate Edelman numbers)
Week 7, @Kansas City (TE Travis Kelce, Zeus is in the house)

This is "just my take" #JMT and takeaway from Thursday nights contest and just a few fantasy thoughts looking forward.

~David G

FINDING THIS YEAR'S VALUE

September 6th 2015
Sunday

FINDING THIS YEAR'S VALUE

For the most part drafting value is to each his own. You won't know the result of that play until many weeks into your fantasy season. but if you do your due diligence, keep up with the injury updates, follow the reports coming out of training camps, and pay attention to "Sportscenter" or "NFL Access" you will have at least a small inclination as to what is happening.

And even though "Numbers Never Lie" isn't exactly an exact science, it is however a pretty strong indicator and trustworthy guideline to follow when it comes to finding the fantasy value you are looking for in the later rounds of your fantasy drafts.

Having just completed my third fantasy draft, let me offer some opinion and thoughts on a couple of later rounders with value.

The first name is one that was not even drafted; wide receiver James Jones. The ex-Packer wideout was just released by the Giants (part of their cut-downs to 53). Now a free agent, his ex-employer could come calling to add needed depth to their receiving squad. Jones played 7 seasons with the Pack averaging nearly 53 receptions and 730 yards receiving scoring 29 touchdowns in his last 4 campaigns in Green Bay. Jones also finished with a career high 73 receptions in 2014 in Oakland. His numbers don't jump off the board, but in Green Bay he could be a late round flyer with upside as a reliable WR3 or flex play in most formats.

For the past three seasons Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has thrown more than 615 passes in each of those seasons; that's a lot of balls to go around. With wide receiver Julio Jones drawing most of the defenses attention and a banged up Roddy White, the Falcons number three receiver spot could have a lot of fantasy "sex" appeal. In 2013 Harry Douglas ran with that role and flourished when Julio missed much of the season. This season's Harry D, could be wideout Leonard Hankerson. Hank spent four seasons in the turbulent Redskins camp and is coming of ACL surgery from a year ago. Hank has never had a  quarterback like Ryan and could benefit greatly in the Falcons pass system. We won't get carried away and try to stretch Hankerson out to more than what he really is; another late round flyer that could pay some nice dividends as a strong flex or low WR3 in deeper 12 and 14 team leagues.

The reports are already saying that Rams rookie running back Todd Gurley is out for week one and that he's not likely to see substantial work on the field until after the team's week 6 bye. In my most recent draft second year running back Tre Mason did not come off the board until round 13. Mason is not exactly tiny at 5'8", he weighs in at 207 pounds. With lightening speed and great agility, he is expected to anchor the Rams run game in the early going this season. Gurley may work his way into the rotation, but Mason is not going anywhere. Falling this late in the draft, Mason can offer value as a strong flex play or even a low end RB2 in deeper formats for the first quarter of the season. And there's no guarantee that Gurley will set the world on fire when he gets on the field; Mason's value could sustain deep into the 2015 season.

This is just my take; three names coming off the boards late that I like.

~David G

DRAFT STRATEGY: PLAYING TO WIN

September 4th, 2015
Friday

DRAFT STRATEGY: PLAYING TO WIN

If you are ultra-competitive, hate to lose, and always in it to win, then you are a little like me. I may be characterized a little more beyond that and back again; I was born to play games, I love to win, and losing just sucks.

Playing fantasy football has no question brought out all of those wonderful qualities in me that shine best on Sundays. I love to win, although I dont always, but I am always trying that you can count on.

My approach has always been the same when it comes to my fantasy football drafts and as the consumate win-or-die fantasy footballer, I have tried a many strategies and formulas time and time again. I can honestly say I dont have a favorite or go to. I am not sure there is a full proof science or formula to draft, but I am beliver that you have to have a plan when you draft; if you are playing.

With my second draft in the books (completed last Sunday), and a minimum of three more to go this weekend, I wanted to reflect on my recent go-round. Now my first draft was one I approached with balance and looking for minimal risk. My draft position was number 7 in a 10-teamer. That league, although a PPR was a quarteback heavy scoring league. This year is called for some finesse and manuvering to hit all my marks. I think it would generally be scored a B to B+ had I not lost my number one wide receiver Jordy Nelson; no question it's going to be a grind this season and I am going to need a little waiver wire magic if I have any hopes of going deep in the fantasy post-season.

Now my recent draft was a bit different in approach. My play here was swing for the fences and build for the playoff run. This league being more of a standard, balance is key to reach the post-season, but you need some home-runs down the stretch if you hope to make big noise. With the number 8 spot in this 12-teamer PPR league (2-points per reception) Steelers running back LeVeon Bell fell to me and I swung hard for the fence. I am going to miss him the first two games, but this playmaker has tremendous upside and is just the big-bat I'll need in week 14 to make a big hur-rah!

After selecting Megatron (WR-Calvin Johnson) in the 2nd (by the way, I think he's going to finish top three this season) and running back Andre Ellington (46 receptions in 2014) in the 3rd (14th running back off the board....went a little early on him), I took another swing for the fences and pulled Texans running back Arian Foster off the market. Maybe I have been watching a little too much HBO and "Hard Knocks," but when this guy returns like Bell he can be a fantasy football difference maker.

With my 5th round pick (56 overall, 25th WR off the board) I snagged wide receiver Jarvis Landry (84 receptions in 2014), who I think could end up being a bargain since his ADP is around 47th overall. I followed with quarterback Matt Ryan in the 6th (also back him up with Peyton Manning in the 9th-couldn't resist on letting him fall farther) and took another reach with running back Doug Martin in the 7th (35th RB taken); with all the recent positive ink he's been receiving he could also be another bargain. 

Notice the trend, with Bell and Foster taken early, I need to make an early run at running back to fill my squad the first quarter of the season. Even with this early run, I was very happy with the cores of receivers I was able to draft; John Brown (ARI), Phillip Dorsett (IND), Dorial Green-Beckham (TEN), and Leonard Hankerson (ATL). 

In this league, with one flex spot I'll likely be running with three running backs and two wide receivers (Johnson and Landry). I feel real strong about the quality of running backs I took (when healthy) and I believe my two receivers will provide plenty of punch this season.

My strategy here was simple, I drafted for the fantasy playoffs. There's no question my team is filled with great risk, but I believe if I hit on my picks the rewards could be huge. That was my strategy going in, take the risks (Bell & Foster), find the bargains (Landry, Martin, & Manning), and hope they all pay-off and pay-out down the road.

~David G

MURRAY AND MCCOY: NEW PLACES, SAME FACES?

August 28th 2015

Friday

Murray and McCoy: New Places, Same Faces?

I mentioned yesterday some of the running backs I would be targeting in my upcoming PPR draft and while these two (DeMarco Murray and LeSean McCoy) obvious targets were not mentioned, they are not being overlooked.

McCoy and Murray may be in new places for the 2015 season, but I still very much think these two dynamic runners are the same ball-carriers from a year ago. That being said, while the talent may still exist their situations set up for very likely different outcomes from a year ago.

Murray (450 touches in 2014) is not likely to see as heavy a load as he did in Dallas last season with the likes of Ryan Matthews and Darren Sproles sharing the same sideline. History is also against him to repeat his 2014 performance. I think Murray will perform well in Philly and should have a good season, but I am not expecing him to finish 2015 as the number two fantasy stud; top 10 is more in line. With his current value in drafts (that I am seeing) making him a late first or early second round pick, his price may be too high for me to reach.

McCoy would seem to have greater appeal (to me), in a situation where he is a lock to be the workhorse. But the Bills questionable line and questionable offense, together with McCoy's recent injury status may make him appear to be a bit of a risky early pick. Regardless, I still like McCoy to also finish in the top 10 this season. Once he returns to the field, he could easily post his third consecutive 300-plus carry season, and surpass his 5 rushing touchdowns of a year ago.

Both these cats can scat with the best and have shown in the past the ability to perform at the highest of levels, but when stacking up the two head-to-head this season, based on what they bring to the table and where they'll be setting up their plates, my money is on Shady.

That's just my take.

~David G

MY TOP PPR RUNNING BACKS TO TARGET

August 27th, 2015
Thursday

MY TOP PPR RUNNING BACKS TO TARGET

With my next fantasy draft coming up in a couple of days, the emphasis in this next draft is PPR and no position will be more important than my backfield. 

As many of may be hearing and seeing, even with the recent onslaught of injuries and suspensions the wide receiver still seems to be the deepest it's ever been. Quite simply fantasy owners can not escape the fact that the running back is by far the highest contact skill position, providing the biggest risk; drafting depth always is and will once again be a premium in PPR or standard leagues.

With my upcoming draft, I am focusing on production yes, but just as important in my thought process is opportunity. In fantasy, opportunity is the prelude to utilization and production.

What I am looking for in my top targets, touches, targets, and production. With this criteria in mind as I prepare for my draft, here are my top running backs to target;

2014 numbers:
Jamaal Charles, KC - 206 carries, 40 receptions, 59 targets (265 chances)
Le'Veon Bell, PIT - 290 carries, 83 receptions, 105 targets (395 chances)
Arian Foster, HOU - 260 carries, 38 receptions, 59 targets (319 chances)
Mark Ingram, NO - 226 carries, 29 receptions, 36 targets (262 chances)
Lamar Miller, MIA - 216 carries, 38 receptions, 52 targets (268 chances)
Justin Forsett, BAL - 235 carries, 44 receptions, 59 targets (294 chances)
Andre Ellington, ARI - 201 carries, 46 receptions, 64 targets (265 chances)


Last season was a bit of a down season for Charles and based on his total chances in 2014, I only see that number increasing a lot.

Bell was a fantasy stud in 2014 and despite the two game suspension to start this season, he should be able to improve upon these numbers from a year ago.

Foster is someone I am looking at trying to steal early. His numbers may taper back a bit this season due to the early injury, but once he's healthy he'll see volume and produce.

Ingram is someone I think I am likely to value higher than most. I believe he can be a bell-cow in New Orleans and with no Immy Graham, the Saints offense will have a more conservative look this season.

Playing in what should be an improved offense, behind a rising star quarterback I can only see Miller continuing his ascent as one of the more reliable runners in the league.

Forsett is another one of those backs I may be valuing higher than most. I watched a lot of his games last season and I am a believer in his skills. He may lose some goal line touches to a bigger back, but he's still going to see plenty of work in the pass game.

I don't really like chasing sleepers and I am not sure that these backs would be considered, but Doug Martin  (missed 5 games last season) in Tampa and Rashad Jennings (208 chances in 11 games) are a pair that I will target in mid-rounds to add depth.

Just my take.

~David G