FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Monday Evening Edition
August 26th, 2019

Late Round Fliers: Favorite Sleepers and Such

[Diamonds in the Rough]

NY Jets, Running Back Ty Montgomery

Currently coming off the board (Full PPR) as the RB58 at ADP #157.2 (according to FFC), the Jets back-up running back is a steal. Even with running back Le’Veon Bell in the lead-dog position in New York, Montgomery is going to see action because of his versatility as a runner and pass catcher. At the very least I think he can be a reliable low value flex play with potential upside. If Bell should miss any time, Montgomery would see an increase work-share. Don’t get me wrong, Bell figures to dominate touches in the backfield, but Montgomery has enough talent and skill he could work his way onto the field every week. At the very least he figures to be a great hand-cuff you can snag late and may even offer some stand alone value.

NY Jets, Quarterback Sam Darnold

Let’s not get carried away here, I am not thinking the Jets will have a juggernaut offense in 2019, but I do believe they will be in the upper half. Their young quarterback (Darnold) is a budding star in this league and this offseason he’s been given a few new toys. At the close of 2018, Darnold showed flashes as a top 12 Fantasy QB over his last 3 starts; 5 touchdown passes, no interceptions, and 102.8 passer rating. Add an elite pass catcher out of the backfield like Bell (160 receptions his last two seasons played), wide receiver Jamison Crowder (already showing strong chemistry with his QB) in the slot, and tight end Chris Herndon (suspended for the first four games) when he returns and Darnold will have plenty of weapons in 2019. He’s an absolute heist going as #QB23, ADP 161.7 (FFC). He’s absolutely worth a stash on your bench in deeper leagues and could be a difference maker down the stretch for fantasy owners.

SF 49ers, Wide receiver Marquise Goodwin

In his last 5 games in 2017, with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo under center, Goodwin was number 13 fantasy receiver in full PPR (stat line; 29 catches, 384 yards receiving, 1 touchdown, 43 targets). He’s currently coming off the boards at ADP 164.1, #WR64 (FFC) and he’s projected to be a starter heading into the regular season. There have been plenty of whispers about some of the other receivers in San Francisco, but Goodwin has history with Garoppolo. If Jimmy G can get his legs under him, these two could once again find that chemistry for 2017. Going as deep as Goodwin is in drafts, he’s a must pick up late.

Buffalo Bills, Wide Receiver John Brown

Over the past several seasons, Brown has become kind of a training camp folk hero. Every year it seems, we hear the whispers of how good Brown looks in camp. There’s no question, Brown has big play talent and skill, health has always been his nemesis. Well he’s healthy again this offseason (as he was last season) and once again he’s looking great in camp. The difference this season is the big arm under center in Buffalo (Josh Allen) and the great rapport and connection the two are showing. There’s not another real established receiver in Buffalo ahead of Brown, so another difference this season is “Opportunity.” Brown who is coming off the boards at ADP 145.5, #WR57 (FFC), has a chance to lead this team in receiving. He’s another starter with breakout potential, that you can snag very late in drafts.

Minnesota Vikings, Quarterback Kirk Cousins??

For the money he’s getting paid, he may not be worth, but as a fantasy starting QB, I disagree. Cousins is coming off the boards late #QB18, ADP 138.7 (FFC). He has the weapons in wide receivers Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen and tight end Kyle Rudolph, add the return of running back Dalvin Cook (who looked great in the team’s third preseason game) and Cousins will put up numbers. Last season was a down year for Cousins, but he still finished as the number 12 fantasy QB; this after finishing 6th in 2017 and 5th in 2016. I like his outlook and believe in his ability to produce. Call this a gut feeling, but I got a feeling.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Evening Edition
August 24th, 2019

In These Hands We Trust

Let’s begin with this, my numbers are not scientific, nor are they prophetic, they are merely my opinion based on my eye test and last season’s production. With that much said and not trying to say too much, these are my WR rankings for the start of 2019 season.

At the top of the board is Mr. Number one himself, DeAndre Hopkins (MR#1WR). In full PPR Hopkins finished as the number wide receiver last season, after finishing second by a half point in 2017. Hopkins has hands of glue and he is Mister Consistent. He’ll see his normal 170-plus targets and should be back at the top once again.

Right behind Hopkins, filling the number two slot is the Packers Davante Adams (MR#2WR). I actually like Adams a ton; he could easily unseat Hopkins for top billing. Adams will have the luxury of catching passes from a healthy Aaron Rodgers and after coming off a season with career highs across the board (catches, yards, touchdowns, and targets), he’s a shoe-in to post large numbers in 2019.

Yes, the top two receivers have great outlooks for 2019 and both are appropriately ranked, but my number four fantasy receiver, the Browns receiver Odell Beckham Jr (MR#4WR) deserves a huge mention here. It just feels like the perfect storm this season for OBJ, who was traded to Cleveland in the offseason. With the gunslinging quarterback Baker Mayfield under center, it feels like OBJ is going to be on Sportscenter a lot this season.

The First 12 pairs of hands
1.DeAndre Hopkins
2.Davante Adams
3.Julio Jones
4.O. Beckham Jr
5.Michael Thomas
6.Tyreek Hill
7.Smith-Schuster
8.Mike Evans
9.Keenan Allen
10.Antonio Brown
11.Adam Thielen
12.T.Y. Hilton

Leading the second set of 12 is the Buccaneers receiver (MR#13WR) Chris Godwin; in Godwin I trust. He’s been one of the talks of the offseason, I’ve been listening to. Godwin had a very nice 2nd season starting 5 games and finishing with 59 receptions, 842 yards receiving, and 7 touchdowns. Now in his third year with the Bucs, this is expected to be his breakout. In four of his last five games in 2018, Godwin had no fewer than six targets per contest with quarterback Jameis Winston under center; the Bucs starting Quarterback for 2019. Godwin is a rising star.

The two Rams receivers, Brandin Cooks (MR#16WR) and Robert Woods (MR#17WR) are basically bookends; you can flip-flop these two. The Rams high-octane offense presents plenty of opportunity for both, even with the return of Cooper Kupp. Last season Woods finished as the 11th scoring fantasy receiver, with Cooks checking in at 13 (full PPR). I believe the return of Kupp will knock these two down slightly, but both are worth drafting as your WR2.

Ankle surgery has me avoiding Bengals receiver A.J. Green (MR#24WR) in my drafts, but he is going to return at some point this season; expected to only miss a few games. If you can get him late, he has the potential of being a solid late grab and could be a difference maker. But he is coming off surgery, which is always risky.

The Second set of hands
13.Chris Godwin
14.Stefon Diggs
15.Julian Edelman
16.Brandin Cooks
17.Robert Woods
18.Jarvis Landry
19.Amari Cooper
20.Cooper Kupp
21.Kenny Golladay
22.Tyler Lockett
23.Calvin Ridley
24.A.J. Green

Some notables that just missed the cut, Bengals receiver Tyler Boyd (MR#25WR), Chargers receiver Mike Williams (MR#26WR) and Eagles receiver Alshon Jeffery (MR#27WR). I really like Williams this season, easily see him cracking the top 24. The same for Boyd, with Green expected to miss time he’ll be the go-to receiver for quarterback Andy Dalton.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Night Edition

August 23rd, 2019

Bad Boys Running Wild

The Ones!

With the peak of the Fantasy draft season upon us (a lot of fantasy drafts expected this weekend and next), it’s time to tighten up your rankings and close in on those fantasy picks that are going to bring home the hardware.

Out of the gate, this of course is not headline news, the top pick for me is a no-brainer; Saquan Barkley (MR#RB1). Last season the Giants runner totaled 352 touches (261 carries, 91 receptions), playing in all 16 games of his rookie campaign. There is no reason to think he won’t see similar numbers once again and with his nose for the big play, he’s a solid first pick.

Running backs Christian McCaffrey (MR#RB2) and Alvin Kamara (MR#RB3) offer similar upside, but both are not quite the workhorse as is Barkley.

It’s no secret in Cleveland, running back Nick Chubb (MR#RB5)is expected to be the man to open the season. He has a great opportunity to be a fantasy star and with the upgraded passing game, he should be. Last season Chubb finished 10th in NFL rushing and just missed 1,000 yard by four.

It may be a surprise to see Le’Veon Bell (MR#RB7) as high as I have him, but unlike many other Fantasy experts, I believe Bell will be fine in New york. You don’t pay top dollars for a high-performance car to park it in the garage. I happen to believe Bell is going to see a large volume of work and will be highly productive.

I have the Lions star runner Kerryon Johnson (MR#RB10) in my top 10, because I am drinking the Kool-aid. His rookie season was cut short due to injury (knee), but Johnson is healthy in 2019 and expected to open the season as the Lions lead-back. KJ is a versatile back (32 receptions in 2018) and from weeks 7 to week 11, he averaged 17.4 touches per game. He has the potential for a heavier workload and finishing inside the Fantasy Top 10 this season.

1.Saquon Barkley

2.C. McCaffrey

3.Alvin Kamara

4.David Johnson

5.Nick Chubb

6.Joe Mixon

7.LeVeon Bell

8.Dalvin Cook

9.Todd Gurley

10.Kerryon Johnson

11.Damien Williams

12.Devonta Freeman

The Next 12

Just a couple of quick notables for the second 12 of my rankings list; I am believing the hype surrounding Raiders rookie running back Josh Jacobs (MR#RB14). He could be a 20-touch per game back in Head Coach John Gruden’s offense.

I dropped Ezekiel Elliot (MR#RB15) outside my top 12, due to his holdout and the risk he could miss some games. Should he get signed, he catapults up the charts to number 5. Drafting him as a RB1 or RB2 is basically based on how confident you are he’ll be back in Dallas and when.

I have Leonard Fournette (MR#RB17) a little low at 17, but if he stays healthy this season he could easily finish in the top 10. Last season Fournette played in 8 games, finishing as the No.40 RB in fantasy PPR scoring, as compared to his rookie season where he played in 13 games and finished 9th.

Although he may be considered a little undersized, Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay (MR#RB24) proved he is more than capable in an NFL backfield. The former Buffalo out of the University of Colorado finished his rookie campaign as the 13th RB in fantasy PPR scoring. He makes my board as a low-end RB2, but I honestly feel he could be a little low.

13.James Conner

14.Josh Jacobs

15.Ezekiel Elliott

16.Aaron Jones

17.L. Fournette

18.Marlon Mack

19.Melvin Gordon

20.Derrick Henry

21.Mark Ingram

22.Tevin Coleman

23.Chris Carson

24.Phillip Lindsay

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Night Edition

August 18th, 2019

The Draft Weekend

I’m playing a little catch up here as this past weekend was my annual Draft day weekend marathon. It has become tradition, in this kid’s (I’m not a kid - and don’t ask) neighborhood home leagues to partake in two deep fantasy drafts on the same weekend. We’ve been doing this, a number of years now and it’s been quite the endeavor, but an experience well worth it. 

Preparation & Podcasts

Like every year, leading up to Draft day, I spend a lot of my free time researching and studying, as much as I can and as much as real life will allow (and that’s not much). I pick up the annual fantasy mags for cheat-sheets and rankings, and I print out the various ADPs and rankings from FFC and Fantasy Pros (two of my favorite sites). I also absorb some of the popular fantasy podcasts & shows, sometimes for the insight and analysis, and sometimes for entertainment, and even sometimes to just get me in fantasy draft mode. 

Draft Day Anxiety

When the day arrives, all bets are off, it’s go time and every fantasy owner for themself. The clock winds down to zero and first owner is on the clock; depending on your spot in the draft, you have time to consider you strategy, the direction you will go, zero running backs to start, heavy wide receivers in the opening rounds, early round reaches, or playing it safe. Even the first pick can cause some anxiety or nervous anxiousness, as it will set the tone for your following picks. 

No matter what that first important decision becomes, keep your eye on the prize, be committed to your decision and construct the best fantasy team that’s ever been put together. Believe in your process, stay the course, and go the distance with determination, focus, grit, and if all else fails, flip a coin. We put some much into this day that will define our upcoming season, the good thing this is, one year from today we can do it all over again. 

Draft Day Picks

My 2019 Fantasy Draft weekend has concluded, and for a while on Saturday it seemed all of my picks were all over the place, from my 2nd round Le’Veon Bell selection to my DK Metcalf selection in the 12th round. I doubled down with quarterback Deshaun Watson in both leagues, taking him in 2nd round in one (8 team league) and the 6th round (10 team league) in the other. 

I also locked up wide receiver Chris Godwin in both leagues; 5th round and 7th round. Both Watson and Godwin were targets of mine, as was running back Aaron Jones. These were players I eyed, and made sure I was able to grab without having to reach further than I was comfortable.

The Results

The first day of drafting was the most relaxed and the group enjoyed the time we took, but 8 hours of drafting can take its toll; good thing it’s only once a year. We all started with high hopes, but with the usual conjecture, speculation, unproven analysis, and good natured ribbing with each pick, the draft lasted and lasted. 

At the conclusion of both drafts, my final take on how my teams looked, I was very satisfied with the balance and depth I achieved. Here’s a look at the early rounds of both.

8-Team League

1.Ertz, Zach

2.Watson, Deshaun

3.Johnson, David

4.Cook, Dalvin

5.Jones, Aaron

6.Diggs, Stefon

7.Godwin, Chris

8.Winston, Jameis

9.White, James

10.Woods, Robert

Notes: This is tight-end league (.2 pts/yard), so Ertz was early, but the second TE off the board. I went heavy with RBs early that I feel with contribute in the pass game very well. This is also a Superflex league which is why I snagged Winston early in the 8th; I think he’s going to be top 10 this season.

10-Team League

1.Odell Beckham Jr

2.Le’Veon Bell

3.Aaron Jones

4.David Montgomery

5.Chris Godwin

6.Deshaun Watson

7.Robby Anderson

8.Vance McDonald

9.Will Fuller

10.Kalen Ballage

Notes: Odell fell to me in the 9th slot of the 1st, so had to grab him, came back with Bell in the 2nd; love his potential heavy volume. I am high on Godwin, so I took him in the 5th and followed him with Watson in the sixth; I think Watson could be top 3 this year. I like McDonald’s potential this season with Bell and Brown out of Pittsburgh, and my Fuller selection is points on points with Watson.

That’s My Draft Day Take

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Wednesday Night Edition

August 14th, 2019

The First Class of Fantasy

Sometimes it seems like the quarterback position is treated like a first class citizen, in comparison to other positions on the field. They are without question, the most protected and rightfully so.

Rather than posting my complete list of all starting quarterbacks, I’ll just share my thoughts about a couple of the QB1’s for 2019.

At the top of my list for this fantasy season is the Texans starter, (MR#1 QB) Deshaun Watson. He’s a very good passer and dynamic player. With the weapons surrounding him in Houston, such as wide receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, and with the addition of running back Duke Johnson, Watson should deliver big numbers this season.

Landing in my top five this season is none other than Mr. Quarterback, (MR#3 QB) Aaron Rodgers. The Packers signal caller’s numbers were down a bit last season, but we know he played through injury. This season, a healthy Rodgers will have an opportunity to recapture his crown as the best QB in the league and fantasy.

I like (MR#8 QB) Mr. Baker Mayfield this season, as do many other fantasy enthusiasts, but I am not over the top with my excitement. The Browns quarterback had a very positive rookie campaign last season and with the addition of an elite wide receiver like Odell Beckham Jr, his second year looks very promising. I, however will temper my expectations some and remain grounded, as Mayfield was the number 16 fantasy QB in total points last season, so Top-10 is still trending in the right direction. 

My last notable for the evening is the final quarterback to make my preseason QB1 status, (MR#12 QB) Jameis Winston. Last season the Buccaneers quarterback finished strong in the 2nd half of the season, and all the whispers I keep hearing on the radio shows and popular podcasts suggest, this could be a big season for Winston; he does have some nice weapons.

My QB1’s list

1.Deshaun Watson

2.Patrick Mahomes

3.Aaron Rodgers

4.Andrew Luck

5.Matt Ryan

6.Carson Wentz

7.Cam Newton

8.Baker Mayfield

9.Drew Brees

10.Russell Wilson

11.Jarod Goff

12.Jameis Winston

That’s my take.

~David G. Ortega