September 13th, 2015
Sunday
Sunday Sleepers
I am not going to go through too many, so I will offer just a couple of Sleepers to consider for week 1.
In Green Bay with Nelson out (ACL injury) and James Jones only having been with the team for less than a week, quarterback Aaron Rodgers will be looking to utilize his full compliment of weapons this week. Running back Eddie Lacy will likely carry the load on the ground, but when the team enters the red-zone, I am expecting Rodgers to really open things up. One weapon that is not getting a lot of noteriety is tight end Richard Rogers. In his second season, the former Cal Bear is a big target at 6'4" and will face a Bears defense that was worst versus tight ends last season (standard scoring), allowing the second most touchdowns. I expect the Rodgers connection at least once today.
Another Sunday Sleeper I am targeting is wide receiver Rueben Randle. Over-shadowed by his teammate Odell Beckham Jr, Randle brings something to the table and has had success with quarterback Eli Manning in the past. With Victor Cruz ruled out, Manning is going to have to look other places beside OBJ in the pass game. Randle finished strong last season with back-to-back 100-yard receiving games and should be a lock for a couple of red-zone targets at 6'3".
Rodgers and Randle could be very successful plays in week 1.
Just my take.
~David G
September 13th, 2015
Sunday
Sunday Starters: Week 1
If you drafted well this past preseason and managed to avoid the injury bug, your lineup should be well set; play your studs. But for those of us already dealing with adversity and looking for Sunday Value, there are a handfull of plays I like that are worth noting.
This being the first weekend of NFL action, value will be key for many of us trying to come out on top in our weekly matchups. And for those of you (like me) who play the weekly games, Sunday value can be paramount.
Looking across the board, there are couple of low-value (in drafts and DFS pricing) wide receivers worth slotting in today; in Green Bay Davante Adams. Even with the return of James Jones, Adams value should remain in tact as the teams best deep threat. And if you recall, last season wide receiver Jordy Nelson averaged 15.5 yards per catch and had 19 receptions of 20 yards or more (inlcuding 8 for 40 yards or more); Adams will be filling Nelson's spot on Sunday.
Another wide receiver I like is the Falcons Leonard Hankerson. Listening to some sports talk, sounds like Roddy White is good to go for Monday, but none-the-less the Falcons run a lot of 3-receiver sets and Hankerson should see plenty of field; enough to find the end-zone.
A quiet running back this week (at least a player not getting a lot of hype or much love) is the Jets Chris Ivory. With no real other threat in the backfield to steal carries, Ivory should get plenty of run against a defense that faced the third most carries last season and allowed the second most rushing yards.
With all the injuries in Washington, as the dust settled the lone survivor at tight end was Jordan Reed. The Redskins tight end has plenty of talent and upside and if he can remain healthy, he'll be a nice weekly play for fantasy owners. Although his matchup is not considered favorable (Dolphins defend tight ends well), Reed in the slot has very good athletiscm and will benefit from wide recievers DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon on the outside. This could be a reach, but I like Reed to snag a few balls and reach the end-zone today.
Lastly, a tight end that should be in most lineups today is the Bears Martellus Bennett. As pointed out by ESPN's Mark Schlereth, the Bears new offense (under new head coach John Fox) is a carry-over of the Broncos from last season (tight ends were targeted 96 times in 2014). Bennett is also coming off a career high 90 reception season; so he's got great rapport with his quarterback Jay Cutler. In the new offense look for Cutler to lean on his trusty tight end today.
This is just my take for Week 1.
~David G
September 12, 2015
Saturday
Thursday's Fantasy Takeaway
Seeing as this is Saturday, this one is coming out a little late, but if there was anything to learn from Thursday night's matchup between the Patriots and Steelers, one thing for sure is not to bet against quarterback Tom Brady. Maybe the NFL also learned, don't make Brady mad, the rest of the league won't like him when he's mad.
A fired up Brady not only beat the NFL in "Deflate-Gate," beat the Steelers on Thursday night, but with guns-blazing he sent a message to the rest of the league; take notice Brady is in charge. In total command, Brady shredded the Steelers secondary for four touchdowns (three going to Gronk), completing 25 of 32 passes (78.1 completion percentage) and throwing for 288 yards. His 143.8 passer rating was his best week 1 rating, since 2007 (he had a week 1 passer rating of 146.6 and finished the season with 50 touchdowns and over 4,800 yards passing).
Just as many of us would have speculated, his favorite targets on Thursday night were tight end Rob Gronkowski (8 targets) and wide receiver Julian Edelman (12 targets). Both finished with strong nights to no surprise.
On the other side, Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown posted strong numbers (9 receptions, 133 yards receiving, and a score) as would be expected, but the pleasant surprise there was tight end Heath Miller's 11 targets for 8 receptions and 84 yards receiving. Miller's numbers were not exactly off the charts and likely the benefit of "lack of options" for Big Ben (quarterback Ben Roethlisberger) with wide receiver Martavis Bryant and running back Le'Veon Bell both out due to suspension, but they are noteworthy for week 2.
While many saw a lot of what we might expect fromt he big names, perhaps the biggest fantasy takeway was not Gronk's dominance, not Brady's command, or big Ben's 38 passes for 351 yards, but rather the Steelers weak secondary.
The Steelers corners allowed 14 of 16 passes to receivers to be completed for 130 yards, over 9 yards per catch. The secondary also allowed three touchdowns to the tight end, and up front failed to bring any real pressure to the quarterback. Add up these numbers and this could be fantasy hog heaven for owners with players facing the Steelers.
Looking ahead, take note fantasy owners;
Week 2, @St.Louis (TE Jared Cook could be interesting)
Week 4, @San Diego (WR Keenan Allen in the red-zone)
Week 5, vs Arizona (WR John Brown could duplicate Edelman numbers)
Week 7, @Kansas City (TE Travis Kelce, Zeus is in the house)
This is "just my take" #JMT and takeaway from Thursday nights contest and just a few fantasy thoughts looking forward.
~David G
September 6th 2015
Sunday
FINDING THIS YEAR'S VALUE
For the most part drafting value is to each his own. You won't know the result of that play until many weeks into your fantasy season. but if you do your due diligence, keep up with the injury updates, follow the reports coming out of training camps, and pay attention to "Sportscenter" or "NFL Access" you will have at least a small inclination as to what is happening.
And even though "Numbers Never Lie" isn't exactly an exact science, it is however a pretty strong indicator and trustworthy guideline to follow when it comes to finding the fantasy value you are looking for in the later rounds of your fantasy drafts.
Having just completed my third fantasy draft, let me offer some opinion and thoughts on a couple of later rounders with value.
The first name is one that was not even drafted; wide receiver James Jones. The ex-Packer wideout was just released by the Giants (part of their cut-downs to 53). Now a free agent, his ex-employer could come calling to add needed depth to their receiving squad. Jones played 7 seasons with the Pack averaging nearly 53 receptions and 730 yards receiving scoring 29 touchdowns in his last 4 campaigns in Green Bay. Jones also finished with a career high 73 receptions in 2014 in Oakland. His numbers don't jump off the board, but in Green Bay he could be a late round flyer with upside as a reliable WR3 or flex play in most formats.
For the past three seasons Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has thrown more than 615 passes in each of those seasons; that's a lot of balls to go around. With wide receiver Julio Jones drawing most of the defenses attention and a banged up Roddy White, the Falcons number three receiver spot could have a lot of fantasy "sex" appeal. In 2013 Harry Douglas ran with that role and flourished when Julio missed much of the season. This season's Harry D, could be wideout Leonard Hankerson. Hank spent four seasons in the turbulent Redskins camp and is coming of ACL surgery from a year ago. Hank has never had a quarterback like Ryan and could benefit greatly in the Falcons pass system. We won't get carried away and try to stretch Hankerson out to more than what he really is; another late round flyer that could pay some nice dividends as a strong flex or low WR3 in deeper 12 and 14 team leagues.
The reports are already saying that Rams rookie running back Todd Gurley is out for week one and that he's not likely to see substantial work on the field until after the team's week 6 bye. In my most recent draft second year running back Tre Mason did not come off the board until round 13. Mason is not exactly tiny at 5'8", he weighs in at 207 pounds. With lightening speed and great agility, he is expected to anchor the Rams run game in the early going this season. Gurley may work his way into the rotation, but Mason is not going anywhere. Falling this late in the draft, Mason can offer value as a strong flex play or even a low end RB2 in deeper formats for the first quarter of the season. And there's no guarantee that Gurley will set the world on fire when he gets on the field; Mason's value could sustain deep into the 2015 season.
This is just my take; three names coming off the boards late that I like.
~David G
September 4th, 2015
Friday
DRAFT STRATEGY: PLAYING TO WIN
If you are ultra-competitive, hate to lose, and always in it to win, then you are a little like me. I may be characterized a little more beyond that and back again; I was born to play games, I love to win, and losing just sucks.
Playing fantasy football has no question brought out all of those wonderful qualities in me that shine best on Sundays. I love to win, although I dont always, but I am always trying that you can count on.
My approach has always been the same when it comes to my fantasy football drafts and as the consumate win-or-die fantasy footballer, I have tried a many strategies and formulas time and time again. I can honestly say I dont have a favorite or go to. I am not sure there is a full proof science or formula to draft, but I am beliver that you have to have a plan when you draft; if you are playing.
With my second draft in the books (completed last Sunday), and a minimum of three more to go this weekend, I wanted to reflect on my recent go-round. Now my first draft was one I approached with balance and looking for minimal risk. My draft position was number 7 in a 10-teamer. That league, although a PPR was a quarteback heavy scoring league. This year is called for some finesse and manuvering to hit all my marks. I think it would generally be scored a B to B+ had I not lost my number one wide receiver Jordy Nelson; no question it's going to be a grind this season and I am going to need a little waiver wire magic if I have any hopes of going deep in the fantasy post-season.
Now my recent draft was a bit different in approach. My play here was swing for the fences and build for the playoff run. This league being more of a standard, balance is key to reach the post-season, but you need some home-runs down the stretch if you hope to make big noise. With the number 8 spot in this 12-teamer PPR league (2-points per reception) Steelers running back LeVeon Bell fell to me and I swung hard for the fence. I am going to miss him the first two games, but this playmaker has tremendous upside and is just the big-bat I'll need in week 14 to make a big hur-rah!
After selecting Megatron (WR-Calvin Johnson) in the 2nd (by the way, I think he's going to finish top three this season) and running back Andre Ellington (46 receptions in 2014) in the 3rd (14th running back off the board....went a little early on him), I took another swing for the fences and pulled Texans running back Arian Foster off the market. Maybe I have been watching a little too much HBO and "Hard Knocks," but when this guy returns like Bell he can be a fantasy football difference maker.
With my 5th round pick (56 overall, 25th WR off the board) I snagged wide receiver Jarvis Landry (84 receptions in 2014), who I think could end up being a bargain since his ADP is around 47th overall. I followed with quarterback Matt Ryan in the 6th (also back him up with Peyton Manning in the 9th-couldn't resist on letting him fall farther) and took another reach with running back Doug Martin in the 7th (35th RB taken); with all the recent positive ink he's been receiving he could also be another bargain.
Notice the trend, with Bell and Foster taken early, I need to make an early run at running back to fill my squad the first quarter of the season. Even with this early run, I was very happy with the cores of receivers I was able to draft; John Brown (ARI), Phillip Dorsett (IND), Dorial Green-Beckham (TEN), and Leonard Hankerson (ATL).
In this league, with one flex spot I'll likely be running with three running backs and two wide receivers (Johnson and Landry). I feel real strong about the quality of running backs I took (when healthy) and I believe my two receivers will provide plenty of punch this season.
My strategy here was simple, I drafted for the fantasy playoffs. There's no question my team is filled with great risk, but I believe if I hit on my picks the rewards could be huge. That was my strategy going in, take the risks (Bell & Foster), find the bargains (Landry, Martin, & Manning), and hope they all pay-off and pay-out down the road.
~David G
