January 7th, 2017
Saturday Morning Edition
Wildcard Saturday
With today’s games getting ready to heat up in less than 90 minutes, it’s time to take a look at some fantasy picks that could work for all of us DFS players.
At $7,400 salary, wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins could be considered a risky value play today. Hopkins is coming off a down season from 2015, but he’s still a great talent with tremendous upside. With the Texans reverting back to quarterback Brock Osweiler, I would expect a concerted effort today to get the ball to Hopkins. The Raiders defense is beatable by leagues standards allowing the 12th most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers. I expect to see Osweiler target the talented wideout no less than 10 times today; plenty of opportunities to make plays and find the end zone.
Another value play at $4,500 that is more of the sleeper variety is Seahawks tight end Luke Wilson. Clearly the number two tight end and far down on the pecking order, Wilson’s value is most prominent in the red-zone. There’s no question the Lion’s defense will focus on trying to matchup with and slow down wide receiver Doug Baldwin and tight end Jimmy Graham. I wouldn’t expect anything more than a handful of targets for Wilson (maybe 4-5 today), but likely most will come inside the 20 where he’s been effective. In his last two games, Wilson has 6 receptions, including two for touchdowns. The Lions secondary has also allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, including 10 touchdowns.
That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega
January 6th, 2017
Friday Evening Edition
Friday’s Fantasy Five
It’s Wildcard Weekend and it’s time to start getting jacked for the NFL Playoffs. It all starts tomorrow (Saturday) and even though the regular season has concluded, fantasy does not stop. Thanks to DSF sites and the NFL Playoff Challenge, there’s plenty of fantasy left to play.
With fantasy on the brain, let’s talk about this weekend’s games and what five players are my favorites to perform well.
My first pick comes from the early game on Saturday, the Raiders are on the road to take on the Texans. And without quarterback Derek Carr under center, the Silver and Black will need to rely heavily on running back Latavius Murray and the running game. The Texans have been very good versus the pass this season, but their defense is only ranked 12th against the run. Murray won’t find too many big holes on the ground, but he could see some extra work in the short passing game and have a big day just on volume alone.
The Texans will likely lean the same direction as the Raiders and try to ride their own ball carrier, my second pick; Lamar Miller. In their early matchup this season, Miller tore through the Raiders defense for 104 yards on 24 carries. If the Texans have their way on Saturday, Miller could see a similar workload with similar results.
In the early game on Sunday, the Dolphins-Steelers matchup offers plenty of fantasy frenzy and my third pick; wide receiver Eli Rogers. The Steelers 2nd year receiver has been coming on of late and in his last two games with Big Ben tossing the pigskin he collected 9 passes on 11 targets for 159 yards receiving and a touchdown. There’s no doubt the Dolphins secondary is going to be preoccupied and have it hands full with the Steelers other receiver Antonio Brown. This will only mean plenty of chances for Rogers and Big Ben to connect on a big one against a secondary that has allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing wide receiver over the past four weeks.
In the weekend finale, my number four and five picks; wide receiver Davante Adams and quarterback Aaron Rodgers. There’s no question Rodgers is going to be the popular play this weekend and rightfully so. He’s Mr. Snow, Mr. Lambeau, Mr. Fire on Ice and over the past two months he’s been on a roll; his last 8 starts, 298 yards passing/game, 20 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Drawing a first round home game, weather will not be a factor for Rodgers.
With Rodgers under center his receivers are going to be busy and in line for a big Sunday. Wide receiver Jordy Nelson will draw a lot of attention, opening up opportunities for wide receiver Davante Adams to step up. Adams finished the year with 75 receptions, 997 yards receiving, and 12 touchdowns. He’s ready to breakout this post-season.
That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega
January 1st, 2017
Sunday Morning Edition
My Perfect Lineup
With one week left to play regular season fantasy, here is my Draftday Perfect Lineup.
QB-Matt Ryan - Ryan has been hot all season and today he gets a Saints defense that has allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
RB-David Johnson - Johnson has been the Cardinals MVP this season, so you have to wonder how long he’ll play. Regardless, while he’s in there he should dominate touches and could find the end zone a couple of times.
RB-Bilal Powell - Bills run defense has been awful this season, allowing the most fantasy points to opposing running backs over the past four weeks and Powell will get his crack at them today.
WR-Julio Jones - With Ryan playing as well as he has, when healthy Jones has been a monster. He’s back today and the Saints defense should be scared.
WR-Jordy Nelson - the Packers wideout has looked like his old self of late and today he faces the Lions defense that has surrendered the 6th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
WR-Michael Thomas - the Saints-Falcons games is lining up to be a high scoring affair today and with Brees tossing the pigskin, any of his receivers has a chance at a big game. Expect Thomas to add to his 8 touchdown total.
TE-Travis Kelce - the Chiefs tight end has been a force at times and averaging better than 9 targets per game over his last six, he’s in line for another busy and productive Sunday.
PK-Justin Tucker - the Ravens kicker has been money all season. The Bengals may keep the Flacco and company out of the end zone, but Tucker will put points on the board.
DEF-Broncos - no Derek Carr today, coming off a humiliating loss, and having lost the first matchup with the Raiders this season, expect Wade Phillips to stack the line and turn the dogs loose today.
That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega
December 31st 2016
Saturday Evening Edition
Sunday’s Value Plays
Taking a look at the slate for Sunday, if you pay attention there is some low cost, potential high-reward value available. A couple of plays that I like are hit or miss, but if they hit their low salaries allow owners to find play this week with some of the heavy (higher salary) hitters.
The Cardinals wide receiver J.J. Nelson is listed at a $5,300 this week and with 18 targets over the past two weeks, he offers week 17 appeal. Nelson has also scored in four straight games and posting double digit fantasy points in each. He’s a homerun or bust and his value gives owners lots of room to play with.
Another the potential homerun hitter at a great value is Panthers wide receiver Ted Ginn Jr (listed at $4,900 salary this week). Always the big-play possibility Ginn Jr has been hit and miss this season with double-digit fantasy points in four of his past six contests. Ginn Jr is coming off a modest three catch-29 yard performance last week, but has a matchup this Sunday against a Buccaneers defense that has allowed the 6th most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers over the past four weeks.
Another Sunday play offering value for fantasy owners is Broncos running back DeVontae Booker (listed at $5,300 salary). Booker could be viewed as a bit of a reach this week, seeing that he has only reached double-digit fantasy points twice in his last 7 games, with his last one coming four weeks ago. The good news is the latest rumor is Booker is expected to see the lionshare of the load on Sunday. In a limited stint last week versus the Chiefs, Booker flashed some promise and facing a Raiders defense that has allowed the 10th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including the 7th most rushing yards, his Sunday outlook could be promising.
That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega
December 31st 2016
Saturday Afternoon Edition
Last Chance to Play in 16
This being the final weekend of the NFL regular season and with most season long redraft leagues having concluded last weekend, this is the final chance to play fantasy football in 2016.
With season long leagues over, what’s left? If your league is complete, don’t forget DFS has weekly games, so there’s still plenty of fantasy left. And don’t forget, the NFL Playoff Challenge, just more fantasy fun.
For some Week 17 fantasy magic where do owners look? Well let’s start with the matchups that will offer fantasy appeal; Giant-Redskins, Saints-Falcons, and Packers-Lions all have much at stake, so starters will be playing til the end in these contests. A couple of other interesting matchups that warrant some appeal; Patriots-Dolphins and Broncos-Raiders.
These matchups have the appeal of knowing your starters will play and when looking them over, the standouts start with the quarterbacks. This week DFS players have to love the Packers Aaron Rodgers ($8,800 salary), since week 6 in his last 10 starts he is averaging 25.31, scoring no fewer than 21.24 fantasy points in 8 of those 10. In his week 3 matchup this season versus the Lions, Rodgers tossed 4 touchdowns and could be looking at a repeat play this Sunday.
In the backfield, there are two ball carriers that DFS owner should love, the Cardinals “Mr. Everything” running back David Johnson ($9,300 salary), and the Bills LeSean McCoy ($9,100).
Johnson simply does everything and over his past seven starts he’s tallied better than 24 fantasy points in six of those contests. Johnson sees a steady diet of carries as well as targets making him a fantasy workhorse and solid week 17 bet.
Shady (McCoy) is another running back that has been sizzling of late. In has past five games, Shady has topped 19 fantasy points totaling more than 100 yards (rushing & receivng) in each while registering 6 touchdowns, McCoy could be a lock for another big Sunday.
With a lot of stock going to the backfield, owners will have to go frugal out wide, fortunately there are options available. With Rodgers in play, wide receiver Jordy Nelson ($8,200 salary) has to be a heavy favorite to double-down. Nelson has looked great over the past four weeks scoring no fewer than 15 fantasy points while registering 30 receptions and five touchdowns.
My risky plays for Sunday would include the Lions wide receivers Golden Tate and the Dolphins Kenny Stills. Both plays should see plenty of opportunities on Sunday; Tate is averaging 10 targets per game in his last four starts and Stills is averaging better than six targets in his last six games, including 8 targets last week. There’s some risk with these two, but plenty of upside to score as well.
The Saints tight end Coby Fleener has my eye this week with a nice matchup against a Falcons defense that has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends over the past four weeks. Fleener turned in one of his best performances this season back in his first matchup in week 3 against the Falcons. I like his chances on Sunday.
This is the makeup for one of my DFS week 17 lineups.
That’s My Take
~David G. Orrtega
