FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 3rd, 2017

Tuesday Evening Edition

Week 5: On The Cover This Week

A Star on the Rise

It's quite apparent by now that Texans rookie running back Deshaun Watson is a star on the rise. Through the first 4 weeks of the young season, Watson 2-1 as a starter has already made a big statement going head to head with Tom Brady in week 3 (passed for 301 yards and threw 2 touchdowns). Then in week 4 he put on a show and dominating performance against the Jaguars accounting for 5 touchdowns.

Watson was the 12th overall pick in the 2017 draft, out of Clemson where he was a two-time Heisman Trophy finalist. While at Clemson in his sophomore season he led his team to a National Championship accounting for 47 touchdowns (35 passing, 12 rushing), so the pedigree is there.

He's only played in four NFL games, but already the kid's a star. Currently Watson is the No.7 fantasy quarterback averaging 19.31 fantasy points per game. Watson is completing 65 percent of his passes while passing for 811 yards and throwing 7 touchdowns. He also leads all quarterbacks with 148 yards rushing and has added 2 more scores there.

It may be a little premature to start comparing him to the talents of a Michael Vick, but the talent and ability likeness is scary. He's already making heading turning and back-breaking plays. He's quickly becoming a defensive coordinator's nightmare; just ask head coach Bill Belichick.

Watson is a star on the rise and should be on everyone's fantasy radar going forward. He should actually be owned in all formats, so if he's available put in your claim this week and see if you can catch this shooting star.

That's My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 2nd, 2017

Monday Evening Edition

Sunday At A Glance

(Just My Takes)

DeAndre Hopkins is a PPR Machine

Through the first four weeks of the season, the Texans leading receiver leads the league with 49 targets and his 31 receptions this season ranks first in the league. With his quarterback starting to emerge as a playmaker and capable signal caller there seems no ceiling for Hopkins going forward. He is the current No.3 fantasy WR in PPR, and looks to continue his climb. He’ll have some tough Sundays ahead, but he’s once again a must start every week.

Jared Goff and Rams offense look legit & 

Gurley is Top-5

We are one quarter of the way through the 2017 season and while it feels like it still may be too soon to say, it’s equally hard to deny how good this Rams team is, especially the offense. Goff still has a lot of growing to do, but he’s on the right track currently ranked as the No.10 fantasy QB. The offense will only go as far as Goff, as will running back Todd Gurley. Goff’s strong play has opened up opportunity for Gurley which he has responded; through 4 weeks Gurley is ranked as the No.1 fantasy RB (in PPR, 2nd in standard).

Le’Veon Bell dominates Week 4; Is he No.1 

Fantasy RB

Not only did the Steelers ball carrier dominate the field of play, he dominated the offense with 39 touches. It’s doubtful that Bell will continue to see this hefty a workload every week, but there’s no question of his durability and toughness. Last week Bell total 186 yards with 2 scores against a tough Ravens defense. Bell is currently the No.6 fantasy RB in PPR, with matchups against the Jaguars, Chiefs, and Bengals next he’ll be looking to climb to the top.

Alvin Kamara is rising to the top

It may look like Adrian Peterson is out of place in New Orleans, but rookie running back Alvin Kamara looks like a perfect fit. Through the team’s first four games Kamara has logged as much time on the field as starter Mark Ingram. Ingram has been the team’s primary ball carrier in the early part of the season, but Kamara has shown his chops in the pass game logging 20 receptions for 147 yards receiving and touchdown. Both Kamara and Ingram are good options in fantasy, with Ingram holding a slight advantage, but the gap is closing and more touches are in Kamara’s future.

Ameer Abdullah is proving to be steady

Over the past three weeks running back Ameer Abdullah has totaled 281 yards of offense, adding 6 catches and a touchdown. He’s not exactly lighting up the board at the moment, but after putting 94 yards on the 5th ranked run defense (Vikings) last Sunday he’s steady. He’s the No.22 fantasy RB in PPR and should be in starting lineups in 12-14 leagues.

Is Giovani Bernard the best back in Cincy?

After a few weeks of watching the Bengals offense struggle their way to a 1-3 record, no question the offense has issues. This past week the Dalton gang got the passing game off the ground and their 23rd ranked running game stalled again. Rookie running back Joe Mixon has taken over the starting duties, but that has not helped the running game get out of first gear. In four games this season Bernard leads the backfield in total yards with 223; 9 more yards than Mixon, but with 37 fewer touches. It may be time to give Bernard a bigger role in the offense.

It’s All Pass and No Run in New England

There’s a lot for the Patriots to worry about on defense these days, but another thing to take notice is the lack of balance of offense. Tom Brady and company are number one in the league in the air and only 20th on the ground. Mike Gillislee (194 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns) has emerged as the only viable (standard league) option in the ground game, while James White (22 receptions and 173 yards) is the PPR play. With Tom Brady (1,399 yards passing) leading the NFL far and way in passing yards, his receiver situation is a little tougher to read. With Amendola, Cooks, and Hogan available, each week it’s not easy to determine a pecking order; they are all in play. Cooks seems to be the deep threat, but even his contributions are guaranteed; just three catches for 38 yards last week and only one big week thus far this season.

The Broncos biggest weakness on defense 

is their Quarterback

Right now the Broncos defense looks pretty formidable; ranked 2nd in the NFL against the run (allowing just 2.4 yards per carry best in the league) and of course everyone is familiar with their “No Fly Zone.” The defense is going to give this team a chance to win every week, but where it will struggle is on offense. The Broncos quarterback started out strong this season, but his last two efforts have been forgetful. Siemian hasn’t been terrible, but while the running game has been solid (3rd in the NFL) the passing game is lacking (21st in the league). Until Siemian get the aerial attack off the ground two things; eventually defenses are going to force the offense to be one dimensional and the other Thomas and Sanders will see their numbers drop (as evident on Sunday)

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 2nd, 2017

Monday Afternoon Edition

Monday Night Takes

After a wild weekend with some big surprises, tonight’s matchup has all the makings of another Prime-Time spectacle with the Redskins traveling to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. It promises to be a raucous atmosphere tonight, as it typically is at Arrowhead Stadium; and Monday night will surely amplify the excitement.

My Takes

Quarterback Kirk Cousins; the Redskins signal caller finally got things going in week 3 against the Raiders. It was a strong showing and solid performance by Cousins that helped lead the Redskins. Tonight he’ll be away from the comfy confines of home and take his show on the road into hostile territory. The Chiefs defense has held up pretty tough this season versus opposing quarterbacks, but they can be had; in week 2 the Chiefs did allow the second most fantasy points (24.8) to opposing quarterbacks. Cousins played great last week and will try to bring the same momentum into tonight, but road games are always tough. I’d expect Cousins to hang in there, but a big game is likely not on the slate; more like 16-18 fantasy points would be in line.

Running backs Chris Thompson & Samaje Perine; the main production tonight will likely come from the more versatile back of the two, Chris Thompson. Samaje (if Rob Kelley is out) is going to see a lot of the 1st and 2nd down work, but Thompson will be sprinkled in all facets and see heavy use in the passing game. Samaje is likely to find little running room against the Chiefs No.7 ranked run defense, owners may want to sit him tonight. Thompson on the other hand has been on fire and while many may believe it’s time for the flames to fan, I like him in the flex tonight. Thompson should see about a half dozen carries or so and get work 7-9 targets in the pass game.

Wide receivers Josh Doctson, Terrelle Pryor, & Jamison Crowder; I’ll run through these real quick; still waiting on Terrelle Pryor to arrive in 2017 and not expecting to see much tonight against Marcus Peters. Crowder is questionable for tonight, but even if he plays while he is a safe play currently his ceiling seems limited; averaging just 6.0 targets the first three weeks. Cousins does spread the ball around pretty good, but the sleeper tonight to watch is wide receiver Josh Doctson. Last week he only had 2 targets, but did connect on a long shot for 52 yards. As time passes, we may see him get more involved.

Tight ends Jordan Reed & Vernon Davis; Always the risk it seems, the play at tight end here is Reed (if he’s healthy). Reed has been a non-factor the first three weeks playing in 2 games. His numbers are not what we expect from a TE1, hyped as he was in the preseason. He’ll be looking to get things going tonight against the Chiefs who struggle with the TE spot. If Reed is out, insert Davis who fared well in week 3 with 5 grabs for 58 yards and a score.

Quarterback Alex Smith; the Chiefs quarterback had a modest week 3 and with the Redskins coming to town, that’s about what I’d normally expect for tonight. You’re probably not starting Smith tonight in smaller redraft leagues, maybe two QB leagues only. The Chiefs will lean on the run and short passing game, but will ask Smith to take a few big shots downfield. Smith has been good this season going downfield more often, so don’t be surprised if totals a bunch of yards, to compliment a few scores.

Running back Kareem Hunt & Charcandrick West; the key for the Chiefs is in the ground game or at least with their ball carrier, Kareem Hunt. Whether they have success running the ball or not, they will work to get the ball in the hands of Hunt. So far through three weeks Hunt has been electric, he’s in line for another 18-22 touches tonight. He’s my No.1 fantasy RB this week. West is nothing more than a handcuff. As long as Hunt is healthy, West won’t see enough work to be fantasy relevant.

Wide receiver Tyreek Hill, Chris Conley, & Albert Wilson; Head Coach Andy Reid likes to mix things up so much, it’s really hard to gauge where his receivers are. About the only relevant receiver in the Chiefs passing game is Hill. Niether Wilson or Conley can be trusted, only Hill with 22 targets through the first 3 weeks is startable. Tonight’s going to be a tough matchup, but count on Reid to move Hill around and get him the ball in space; despite the matchup, he’s my No. 14 fantasy WR.

Tight end Travis Kelce; Last week Kelce was nearly shut out. Fantasy owners don’t panic, last week was just an anomaly. Reid and his staff will make sure Kelce is involved tonight; i’d expect a bounce back game against the Redskins defense that struggles against tight ends. Kelce is my No.2 fantasy TE this week.

Tonight matchup with the undefeated Chiefs (3-0) and the (2-1) Redskins has the appearance of a great matchup and could be a barn-burner as likely as anything else. Either way, we are in for a good one with plenty of scoring and lots of fantasy implications. Are you ready for some Monday Night Football!

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 1st, 2017

Sunday Morning Edition

Sunday Morning Game-Time

(Quick Takes)

You have to love quarterback Matt Ryan at home this week. Matty Ice always enjoys the confines of the indoor and this week he’s got Julio Jones matched up against the Bills secondary. Bills defense allows 6th most receptions to opposing receivers; I’d be looking for the Ryan-to-Jones connection all day.

The Cardinals secondary has allowed the 9th most receiving yards to opposing receivers and the 3rd most fantasy points; I have to play wide receiver Pierre Garcon in a couple of DFS lineups today. Garcon is currently the No.24 fantasy WR (in PPR) and working his way up.

Last season wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins was a bit disappointing, considering expectations, but this season’s been a different story. Hopkins is currently the No.10 receiver in fantasy (PPR) and with 37 targets through three weeks, fantasy owners have to love his chances to hold his spot. This week he’ll matchup against a Titans secondary that ranks 27th versus the pass, so chances are great.

The Lions defense hasn’t been bad against the run this season ranked 11th, but they do allow 4 yards per carry. I am playing Vikings running back Dalvin Cook in a couple of DFS plays today; he’s a quiet play that could easily top 15-18 fantasy points with 100 total yards and a score.

The Steelers offense has been pretty much stuck in neutral these first three weeks, but I suspect running back Le’Veon Bell will begin working his way up the top from his current No.15 fantasy RB (PPR) spot. The last time he faced the Ravens, Bell totaled 137 yards of offense and scored twice.

The Rams offense has been impressive the first three weeks this season, especially when you look at last season’s version. The roll into the Dallas and will be looking to spoil the Cowboys home-cooking. I like both running back Todd Gurley and wide receiver Sammy Watkins to have success in what will likely be an old fashioned shootout at the Jerry Jones Corral. The Cowboys defense is ranked 11th overall, but 19th against the pass. Watkins should be able to operate with success today, and the Rams have been utilizing Gurley (No.2 fantasy RB) even more in the pass this season; 13 receptions for 140 yards and 2 scores. Yup, I like em both.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 1st, 2017

Sunday Early Morning Edition

Who are you Starting & Sitting (Week 4)

Start or Sit

(Sunday’s Games)

Marcus Mariota (start) The Titans are on the road this week, but that shouldn't slow quarterback Marcus Mariota. Currently the No.10 fantasy QB Mariota will look to increase his numbers today against a Texans defense that allows the 8th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks; start him.

Marquise Lee (start) How often will you hear anyone say to start a Jaguars receiver. With Allen Robinson done for the season, Lee who emerged in the second half of last season has started to become more active with 19 targets over his last two games. If he stays involved today, look for him to find the end zone for the first time this season.

Kelvin Benjamin (start) The Panthers wide out was removed from the injury report, so he should be good to go and I like him today against the Patriots. The Pats have allowed the 5th most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers; start Benjamin.

Adam Thielen (start) The Vikings passing game has received a new injection with the surprise play of quarterback Case Keenum. Through the two weeks Keenum has started, Thielen has been effective; 10 receptions for 142 yards over the past 2 weeks. I expect another productive day from Thielen, start him.

Austin Hopper (sit) The Falcons tight end has not been a big part of the offense this early part of the season with just 6 targets through 3 games. Don’t expect Hooper to get kickstarted today against a Bills defense that has been stingy against opposing tight ends.

Joe Flacco (sit) After last weeks dismal performance, I don’t expect there are too many rolling with Flacco today. He should have been on your bench last week and that’s where he should stay today. The Steelers defense limits opposing quarterbacks to the 3rd fewest fantasy points, sit no go Joe.

Isaiah Crowell (sit) Crowell has quietly become a forgotten man in fantasy through the first three weeks. Crowell was expected to be a top 20 fantasy runner, currently No.40 in PPR, today’s matchup against the Bengals is not likely to help his cause. Sit the Crow.

Sammy Watkins (start) This is a gut call, but I also like the matchup. Watkins will be available week 4 and the big play receiver should have success working against a Cowboys secondary that has allowed the 5th most receptions and 4 touchdowns to opposing receivers. Start Sammy.

Travis Benjamin (start) A Philip Rivers favorite in the passing game it seems, Benjamin was pretty good a week ago with 5 receptions for 105 yards receiving. The two should have no problem keeping this combo rolling against an Eagles defense that has allowed the most receptions to opposing receivers. Start him.

Paul Perkins (sit) The Giants run game has been non-existent and even more so running back Paul Perkins has done nothing through three games. He may eventually get things turned around, but too risky to chance today. Sit Perkins.

Chris Johnson (start) CJ2K looked a little rusty last week, so with another week of practicing perhaps he can get his wheels spinning into a higher gear. He’s got the matchup to make some noise today against the Niner’s 22nd ranked run defense.

Jamaal Charles (start) This is not too bold, but it’s risky, start Jam today against the Raiders. Last week Charles played out as a nice flex option with 56 yards and a score. He’ll get a few more carries today and I like his chances to break one against the league’s 19th ranked run defense (Raiders).

Paul Richardson (start) The Seahawks receiver has had a nose for the end zone in the early going this season with two scores. The Colts allow the 9th most fantasy points to opposing WRs, I like Richardson here to be more involved, especially with Baldwin less than 100 percent. Start Richardson.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega