FSH NOTEBOOK: 10 THINGS FOR NFL SUNDAY

September 17th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Edition

10 Things for NFL Sunday

(Week 2)

With the Kickoff to NFL Sunday week 2 just a few hours away, I’m getting fresh batteries for my remotes, breaking out the second TV, switching on Youtube TV (with Sunday Ticket), checking my fantasy lineups, making some last minute adjustments, and tuning into the latest fantasy shows for injury updates.

There’s a lot to take in and the clock to kickoff is counting down. On top of the inventory check on cold beverages and football foods supply for the day, here are the Top-10 things on my mind as I anxiously await for NFL Sunday to kick off;

1. “James gets cooking” - I like what I saw from the Bills running back on Monday night. Although he did not put up great numbers, his snap share and his usage indicated to me, he’s the guy. It’s only a matter of time before he gets cooking and week 2 versus the Raiders is as good a time as any.

2. “Joe Cool to Chase” - The Bengals passing offense was stagnant in week one, but you had a tough Browns defense and horrible weather. It looks like the weather won’t be a factor this week

3. Henry is still King” - At least for another Sunday, Titans running back will show why he is King. The Chargers are traveling back east for an early game, so this sets up as one of those games where they could fall flat. You know the Titans will lean hard on Henry, especially with a banged up D-Hop (DeAndre Hopkins).

4. “Big Sunday for Big Mike” - The Chargers wideout was quiet in week one and as per the norm, he’ll bounce back this week with a big performance. It’s a good matchup for Big Mike and three times last season when he was targeted fewer than 5 times, he averaged nearly 22 fantasy points.

5. “ASB & Lions keep prowling” - When was the last time the Lions started out 2-0? How about 2023? The Lions will be on the prowl today squaring off with the Seahawks. This matchup looks like a great opportunity for Goff to ASB (Amon-Ra St. Brown) to be called a couple of times. The Seahawks secondary was torched in week one.

6. “Texans not out of Woods” - It’s not surprising to see Robert Woods still hanging around in the NFL, but after the past two quiet seasons I hardly expected to hear his name called again. Now he didn’t light up the scoreboard last week, but he did turn in a solid 6 catch, 57 yards receiving performance. The glaring statistics were his 10 targets and 75.3% snap count. He may not have much fantasy relevance leading into the 2023 campaign, but those numbers might say otherwise.

7. “Mooney is money” - DJ Moore who? Did everyone forget about Mooney? Mooney was a 1,000 yard receiver for the Bears in 2021 and before going down to injury in 2022 he was a primary target for quarterback Justin Fields. Fields trust him and knows he’s money. Don’t count him out.

8. “Waller is winning” - The Giants tight end doesn’t carry an injury designation leading into Sunday. Fantasy owners can grab your popcorn and get ready to see what all the hype during training camp was all about.

9. “Sunday is Deebo Time” - It’s rivalry Sunday, Rams and Niners and that means Deebo time. The Niners wideout has scored in four of their last five meetings, including 5 total touchdowns. He was relatively quiet in week one, but against the Rams I expect a lot of noise from the playmaker.

10. “Jeudy will bring the Juice” - He may be on a pitch count, but no question when he’s on the field he’ll make it count. One element missing last Sunday from the Broncos offense was explosiveness. Jeudy has great speed and can be electric, on Sunday he will bring the juice.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: WEEK 2 FF SIT'EMS

September 16th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Evening Edition

Fantasy Football Week 2

Sit’Ems

My week 2 Sits for Sunday and Monday.

QB-Russell Wilson (Broncos) - Wilson was very efficient in week 1 versus the Raiders, completing 27 of 34 passes (79.4% completion), but faced only a little pressure on the day being sacked just twice. This could be a very different story on Sunday facing the Commanders. Washington recorded three sacks in week one, two with Top-15 fastest sack times. Their defense also only allowed 3.8 yards per pass attempt, 5th best in the league in week one. Wilson and the Broncos pass game could struggle in week two.

RB-Cam Akers (Rams) - I’m not expecting much from Akers in week 2, this is in part to his lackluster production in week one (29 yards rushing on 22 carries), but mostly his matchup against a Niners defense that allowed only 37 yards rushing to opposing running backs in week one. I am avoiding Akers this week.

WR-George Pickens (Steelers) - Week one was rough treading for Pickens and the Steelers passing game with a tough matchup with the Niners. Pickens finished week one with 5 catches, but for just 36 yards. With another tough matchup in week 2 against a Browns secondary that allowed the 3rd fewest receptions to opposing receivers in week one, I am avoiding Pickens.

WR-Courtland Sutton (Broncos) - With a tough matchup on the slate for Wilson and company, Sutton may be the one receiver most affected. With the return of Jerry Jeudy this week, Sutton is likely to see some of the attention on offense shift away from his direction, in what could become a quiet week 2.

TE-Pat Freiermuth (Steelers) - Freiermuth was able to salvage his day last Sunday with a 3-yard touchdown grab. He may not be so lucky this week against a Browns defense that held the opposing tight ends to 3 catches for 17 yards. I will look elsewhere for help at the tight end spot.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: WEEK 2 FF START'EMS

September 16th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Afternoon Edition

Fantasy Football Week 2

Start'Ems

My Week Starts for Sunday and Monday.

QB-Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) - Last season in their divisional round matchup, Lawrence fell flat passing for just 217 yards with one touchdown and an interception. There’s nothing like home cooking and this Sunday the Jaguars third-year quarterback will find redemption and a big day against the defending champs. The Chiefs defense had a decent showing in week one, but Lawrence has got himself some nice weapons he’ll be showcasing on Sunday and they should lead to a big day. Start him.

RB-James Cook (Bills) - Cook dominated the snap counts (59.4%) and usage (16 touches) for the Bills backfield in week one. Although his production was a bit pedestrian (RB27) at best in week one, Cook has a favorable matchup in week 2 where the ceiling is raised. Cook faces a Raiders defense that allowed 10 receptions to opposing running backs and almost 4.5 yards per carry in week one. This sets up potentially for a very nice game for Cook, start him.

WR-Tee Higgins (Bengals) - The Bengals wideout was targeted 8 times in week one and did not post a single catch. You can almost guarantee that will never happen again and most likely what will happen is a bounce back game. Higgins has a truly special player in his teammate Ja’Marr Chase lining up on the other side of the field, who will also look to bounce back this week, so I am going to temper my expectations. I expect Higgins to grab a handful of passes, but more importantly he finds the endzone, start him.

WR-Deebo Samuel (49ers) - Last week it was Brandon Aiyuk featured in the pass game, but Deebo was still a big part and played on 86.8% of snaps (to Aiyuk’s 85.3%). Deebo (week one WR36) has scored in four of his last five meetings against the Rams, scoring five times. I believe he’s a strong bet to find pay dirt in this one, of course you are starting him.

TE-Hunter Henry (Patriots) - This take is one part due to usage and another part due to matchup. In week one Henry played on 78.8% of the offensive snaps. He was targeted six times and finished week one as the TE1. His matchup this week is against a Dolphins defense that allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Henry likely won’t have a lot of catches and yards, but he’s a good bet to reach the end zone in this one, start him.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: (DFS) THE FAVORITE FIVE

September 15th, 2023

David's Daily Digest

Friday Late-Evening Edition

(DFS) The Favorite Five

(Draft Kings)

My week one picks didn’t fare too well. With Justin Herbert (QB5) and Travis Etienne Jr. (RB6), my backfield was secure, but beyond that it was lackluster. Both of my wideouts finished outside the top 20, Chris Godwin was WR40 and Mike Williams was WR50. And in an ugly week for the tight ends, Juwan Johnson finished as the TE18.

Looking ahead to Sunday, I am hoping to bounce back with some strong plays that deserve Week 2 consideration.

QB-Jared Goff ($6200) - I love this matchup for Goff and company. At home this week against a reeling Seahawks secondary that allowed 334 air yards in week 1 (ranked 30th vs pass). Goff’s showing in week one was a bit pedestrian (just one score), but he’ll have the luxury of home cooking this week and should take advantage. At his salary, I consider him a great play against the Seahawks.

RB-Travis Etienne Jr ($6900) - Again a great matchup this week for Etienne and at his salary I love this play. In week one the Jags running back finished as the No.6 fantasy running back and this week he could finish as a Top-10 once again. Etienne was in on 80% of the offensive snaps and totaled over 100 yards in week one, averaging 4.3 yards per carry. The Chiefs defense allowed better than four yards a tilt against the Lions in week one, so with his 18 carries and 5 targets in week one, I’m expecting Etienne to again find similar success. He’ll be a week 2 Stud to anchor my DFS lineups.

WR-Amon-Ra St.Brown ($7800) - I gotta tie St. Brown to Goff in this one. One of the biggest keys to the success of the Lions passing game and to Goff is Amon-Ra. In week one he was targeted 9 times (tied for 17th among WRs), a low-number considering he totaled 146 in 2022 (ranked 8th). I am expecting to see ASB heavily targeted in this one against a secondary that allowed the 2nd most receptions to opposing wide receivers in week one. ASB will be another one of my Stud anchors in my DFS lineup for week 2.

WR-Darnell Mooney ($4400) - If there ever was a value play in week 2, this has to be it. Despite the low volume passing in the Bears offense (only 13 passes to WRS - 3rd fewest in week 1), Mooney still finished as WR20. Mooney dominated the WR target shares with a 53.8% share and 18.9% overall. He converted his opportunity to 4 catches for 53 yards and a score. This Sunday Mooney faces a Bucs defense that was torched for 242 air yards by the opposing WRs. A similar line in week 2 is gold in DFS.

TE-Adam Trautman ($3000) - The Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson was highly efficient in week one and will have one of his primary weapons in Jerry Jeudy back this week. The Commanders defense will be forced to deal with Jeudy’s explosiveness which could offer a lot of room for the underneath stuff. At his salary Trautman is worth the risk, especially considering the Commanders defense allowed the 2nd most receptions to the position in week one. 

These are my favorite plays for Week 2.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FRIDAY'S FANTASY FIXX

September 15th, 2023

David’s Daily 

Friday Morning Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Fixx

(Week 2)

(Favorable Matchups)

After one week of data it doesn’t get any easier for fantasy owners to decide who to start and who to sit, but the information does help. So let’s take a look at the week 2 matchups and set our lineups for Sunday.

QB-Jared Goff (Lions) - Coming off a week 1 win over the defending champion Chiefs, Lions quarterback Jared Goff will be playing with a lot of confidence in this week 2 matchup. Goff and company will square off against a Seahawks defense that allowed 334 yards passing (3rd most) in week one. This could be a big afternoon for Goff.

RB-Bijan Robinson (Falcons) - Considering his usage in the passing game in week one, this Sunday against the Packers could be a big afternoon for the Rookie. Robinson was targeted six times in week one and will face a Packers defense that allowed 11 receptions (2nd most) last week. The Falcons rookie should have another productive Sunday.

WR-DeAndre Hopkins (Titans) - Just playing the numbers with this call. Last week Hopkins was heavily targeted and no reason it should not continue. This Sunday the Titans will face a Chargers secondary that surrendered the most receptions, yards, and touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. Fantasy owners can expect Hopkins to turn in another busy Sunday.

WR-Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals) - After a quiet week one, this sets up to be a great bounce back game for Chase and the Bengals offense. In two games versus the Ravens last season Chase was targeted 25 times, so the elite wideout can be expected to be heavily involved in the passing game this week.

TE-Evan Engram (Jaguars) - The Jags tight end was a bit quiet in week one, but still finished as the No.5 fantasy tight end with 5 catches for 49 yards. This week Engram will take his shot at the Chiefs defense that surrendered 7 catches (tied for 3rd most) last week to the opposing tight end. Last postseason, the Chiefs were able to limit Engram to 31 yards receiving, but that was the pre-Ridley era. Results this Sunday should be very different.

These are not necessarily considered week 2 start’ems, as some are of course already locked in your lineups as they should be. These are rather my predictions or feelings about their respective week 2 matchups and outcomes this weekend. 

These are my week 2 favorites with some great matchups.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega