FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 31st, 2023

Thursday Evening Edition

My Top 10 Fantasy Football 

QB Rankings for 2023

The NFL kicks off in less than one week and this coming weekend promises to be the biggest draft weekend of the season. So with no time to lose here is my Top-10 Quarterbacks for the start of the 2023 season.

The Top-10

1. Patrick Mahomes

2. Josh Allen

3. Jalen Hurts

4. Joe Burrow

5. Lamar Jackson

6. Justin Fields

7. Justin Herbert

8. Trevor Lawrence

9. Deshaun Watson

10. Dak Prescott

Last season, quarterback Patrick Mahomes was sensational passing for over 5,000 yards for the 2022 regular season. But do you know who was better on a fantasy points-per-game basis? No, not Josh Allen, but Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts. 

While the top three could be considered interchangeable, in 2022 Hurts broke out with a fantastic campaign, tossing 22 touchdowns, while completing 66.5% of his passes, and adding 13 rushing touchdowns. With that type of prolific production, I have Hurts ranked as number three, but he could easily vault to the top spot.

Last season, the Bears 2nd year quarterback Justin Fields took over the reins and went on an exceptional run of his own from weeks 7 through 15 (missing only week 12). During this stretch Fields posted 7 straight games with 19 or more fantasy points, including two games over 39. Fields finished as the No.6 fantasy quarterback in 2022 and has a good chance at repeating or improving in 2023.

The Browns starting quarterback Deshaun Watson, after missing the full 2021 season, played in less than half of the 2022 season, 6 games. The rust from his layoff showed last season, as Watson finished as the No.25 fantasy (points-per-game) scoring quarterback. This coming after finishing as the No.5 fantasy QB in 2020, his last full season played. With a full training camp under his belt and a full complement of weapons, Watson is poised for the Top-10 and could push for a Top-5 spot in 2023..

Just missing the Top-10, but still start-worthy in 12-team leagues are quarterbacks, (Dolphins) Tua Tagovailoa and (Giants) Daniel Jones. With the Dolphins passer, his health will be the biggest concern. As long as Tua stays healthy, he’s a Top-10 all day.

With the Giants signal caller, Jones just needs to build off his 2022 season (finished as the No.10 fantasy scoring QB). Six of his final eight games Jones scored no fewer than 17 fantasy points, eclipsing 20 points three times. Like Tua, Jones is a borderline Top-10.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 29th, 2023

Tuesday Evening Edition

My Top 10 Fantasy Football 

Draft Rankings for 2023

(PPR Format)

The final weekend and probably busiest weekend of fantasy draft season is creeping towards us and with so much excitement afoot it’s time to dial in your strategy and hone in on your 1st round picks.

Below are my Top 10 and full 1st round (12-team league) rankings for 2023 and of course, there’s no surprise here with my top pick of Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson. This season the Vikings wideout is the consensus number one pick in most rankings and well deserved. In 2022, Jefferson led all receivers with 128 receptions and posted the 6th best All-Time receiving yards mark with 1,809.

The Top-10

1. Justin Jefferson

2. Ja'Marr Chase

3. Christian McCaffrey

4. Austin Ekeler

5. Cooper Kupp

6. Tyreek Hill

7. Travis Kelce

8. Saquon Barkley

9. Stefon Diggs

10. Davante Adams

The Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase falls in at number Two. An incredible talent and highlight-reel, Chase scored double-digit fantasy points in every game he played last season. He’s entering season number three and appears poised to post big numbers in 2023.

In the PPR format, I had to boost Chargers running back Austin Ekeler to the number four spot. Ekeler is a scoring machine with 38 combined touchdowns over the past two seasons and in 2022 he finished tied for the 5th spot in fantasy points per game (ppr). Perhaps his best stat is playing in all 33 games the past two seasons.

With a full season of health under his belt, I am probably higher on running back Saquon Barkley than most. In 2022 Barkley posted 295 carries, played in 16 games, and finished 5th in fantasy scoring for running backs. Healthy and ready to go in 2023, Barkley should only improve on those numbers.

Another fantasy wide receiver I am excited about more than most others is Davante Adams. I am not sure why so many are down on the Raiders receiver this year. Yes, he’s getting a new quarterback, but he’s still an elite receiver. His numbers over the past three seasons have been prolific. Since 2020 Adams has 4,443 receiving yards and 338 receptions, both rank first among fantasy wide receivers.

And filling out the tail end of Round One…

11. CeeDee Lamb

12. AJ Brown

The Eagles receiver AJ Brown was solid in 2022, especially down the stretch. For the season Brown was the number eight fantasy scoring receiver. In his last six games he posted no fewer than 13 fantasy points, eclipsing 17 or more points in four of those six games.

Set your sights high and draft with confidence.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 28th, 2023

Monday Evening Edition

Fantasy Sleepers: Diamonds in the Rough

One of the secrets to success in fantasy football is not only drafting your studs, and avoiding injuries (usually an impossibility), but finding hidden value in your drafts and throughout the season. During the season, injuries are going to happen, so work the Waiver-wire every week.

But right now, it’s Draft season, so what we are looking for are those sleepers or Diamonds in the Rough.

In Kansas City, with the departure of Tyreek Hill in 2022 (to Miami), the Chiefs had to put together a makeshift receiving core with a lot of names and different faces. One name and one face that will be returning in 2023 is 2nd year wideout, Skyy Moore. Last season Moore barely saw any airtime in the Chiefs high octane offense, but 2023 presents a huge opportunity for the young receiver. The 2022 Second round pick will have a great shot at a completely different outlook in 2023. Listed as the team’s number two wideout, Moore is poised to take huge strides forward this season and with a 10th round ADP, he’s got tremendous value as a sleeper with high return.

An even deeper sleeper I will be eyeing beyond the 12th round with a current ADP of 13.04, is the Packers wide receiver Romeo Doubs. The off-season changes in Green Bay may have many looking elsewhere for fantasy impact, but last season Doubs did display a little something to catch the eye of fantasy owners. This preseason he has been sharp and with a 3rd year quarterback who looks primed for a nice season himself, Doubs and (Jordan) Love are already showing some nice chemistry. Doubs is not going to blow off the doors, but he was second leading wide receiver on the team with 42 receptions (and 67 targets). With Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb now in New York, there are over 140 targets available. Doubs has lots of flex appeal in 2023.

Last season in Denver there was so much disappointment with how the team performed, in particular the offense. The Russell Wilson led passing attack was mediocre at best and none of their wide receivers finished in the Top-20. While that was bad, one good thing that came out of last season was the arrival of tight end Greg Dulcich. Dulcich missed the first five games due to injury, but from week 6 on he played in 10 games, finishing as the No.17 fantasy tight end with 33 receptions, 411 yards receiving, and 2 touchdowns. His scoring line is hardly anything to get excited about, but there’s great potential. Dulcich is a highly skilled and athletic pass catcher and with the arrival of head coach Sean Payton, his skill figure to get utilized. His average ADP at 14.02, puts him at an early TE2 and late enough to draft a late round stash. In Payton’s offense Dulcich should have a chance at being a solid TE1. 

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 28th, 2023

Monday Evening Edition

On My Radar: Draft Day Targets

Now that the draft season has heated up, it’s time to talk about my Draft Day targets. These are the players that I will be looking to take at the right time during my several upcoming drafts. I want value, but I am also looking for opportunity with upside.

Diving in deep, let’s start with the early rounds.

I’ve only participated in a couple of drafts thus far this season. But as I read some of the latest news and watch all of the preseason action, the word on the Fantasy Football Street is wide receivers are going early. It’s not hard to make this argument when you consider the top two consensus receivers are the Vikings Justin Jefferson (128 receptions in 2022) and the Bengals Ja’Marr Chase (over 20 FPG in 2022).

In most of my drafts, I am slotted beyond the 6th spot, so with the receiving landscape being so rich in talent the receiver I am most interested in taking as a last first or early 2nd round pick is Davante Adams. Over the past three seasons Adams has averaged 1,481 yards receiving, 14.3 receiving touchdowns, and 112.6 receptions each season. In his first year in Las Vegas his production level was on par with these averages. In 2022 his finished as the third highest scoring fantasy wide receiver playing in all 17 games. Even with a new quarterback (Jimmy Garappolo) this season, I don’t see a big fall off for Adams. Even with a 5-8% regression he finishes as a top 5 wideout. He’s a safe pick with great value.

Still in the early rounds, two running backs that I have been seeing around the 3rd and 4th round turn are (Packers) Aaron Jones and (Cardinals) James Conner. Both backs offer RB1 value, each finishing in the top 12 last season in fantasy points per game. Jones registered over 1,500 yards from scrimmage in 2022, while Conner finished as a top 10 fantasy running back. Both are going late enough you can bypass in the first two rounds pick up Jones in the late 3rd or grab Conner a little later in the 4th.

As we skate along into the mid-rounds, this about the time to start looking for my tight end and this season my sights are set on the Giants Darren Waller. Listening to a lot of Training camp talk on the radio and TV, there’s a buzz around Waller in New York. Looking back at his 2019 and 2020 seasons with the Raiders, Waller stormed onto the fantasy scene posting TE1 numbers, finishing as the No.5 fantasy tight end in 2019 and No.2 in 2020. Last season was a bust playing in the shadow of (Davante) Adams, but now that he’s in New York, Waller absolutely has the talent to be the number one option for quarterback Daniel Jones.

Finally, this Draft Day target is not a late round flyer, but in my opinion possibly a steal in the 7th round or later, Steelers wide receiver George Pickens. In my opinion, Pickens is dynamic and showed a lot of flash last season when given the opportunity. Last season compared to other receivers with at least 80 targets, Pickens finished 6th in yards per reception with 15.4 yards per catch. His quarterback has been looking good this preseason and figures to take a few steps forward, so I am expecting good things from Pickens. Last season he finished as the No.52 fantasy wideout, this season I believe he could make a leap to a borderline WR2/WR3 (12 team leagues). 

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 27th, 2023
Sunday Afternoon Edition

Draft Day is Here Again

Fantasy football excitement is in the air, as mock drafts churn out like basketball shoes at a Nike factory. Fantasy owners are hitting the magazine stands to pick up their favorite Mag with the latest rankings and player reviews.

As what has become the ritual for many of others who play fantasy, I too have picked up my favorite fantasy magazine or two. With a little over a week left before my final four league drafts, I will be busy over the next several days taking notes, highlighting the players I will be coveting, and updating my current password for my favorite sites for fantasy info and knowledge.

There have been a lot of changes this off season, some key player switches, and some interesting developments in the pre-draft fantasy football landscape. As I prepare for my upcoming drafts, I’ll be looking at the Josh Jacobs situation (his return to the Raiders), the effect of Aaron Rodgers on the Jets and their passing game, the arrival of DeAndre Hopkins in Tennessee, and the impact & influence of the Broncos new head coach Sean Payton. These are only a few considerations that will have to be looked at.

While the Fantasy football sites and magazines are a great source of information to cover those topics, your local supermarket is going to be an essential necessity for Draft Day, if you are to have a successful draft.

Some of the keys that will be needed besides your magazines and website addresses should include the following supplies, beer, ice, chips, dips, water, sides, and of course more beer.

I would suggest stocking heavily on cold beverages, should your draft go sideways, they could come in handy. 

Remember Draft Day is supposed to be a fun-filled day and one that you enjoy. Stay calm, trust your notes, and for goodness sakes, enjoy an occasional cold one during the process.

Good luck and Happy drafting.

That's my take!
~David G. Ortega