FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 18th 2017

Saturday Morning Edition

Week 11 Fantasy Notes

Double-Down in DFS

If you playing any DFS, you are probably familiar with stacking or what I like to call double-down, slotting a QB with one of his receivers. This week I like matchup and the cost of Derek Carr with Michael Crabtree ($15,500 total) over such combinations like Brady & Gronk ($16,800). Another double-down I fancy is Alex Smith with Travis Kelce ($15,400), also consider stacking these two with running back Kareem Hunt this week. The savings with these combos is huge and will allow you more room to maneuver when filling out the rest of your lineup.

Diamonds in the Rough

These Diamonds for week 11 are sitting in what I would call short rough. For those of you on the fence with these plays, Jay Cutler (vs TB), Marshawn Lynch (vs NE), Doug Martin (vs Mia), and Marqise Lee (vs Cle), let me offer these quick takes. The Bucs have been awful all season versus the pass and Cutler has more ability and better weapons that Josh McCown. The Patriots allowed over 100 yards rushing to Denver’s backfield, after getting diced for 135 yards by Melvin Gordon. The Dolphins defense is coming off a 200 yards and 6.9 yards per carry allowed performance. Finally Lee is going to be the clear-cut number one on Sunday and should see plenty of volume.

Time to Trade Away or Let Go

While in Packer-land the news is good that quarterback Aaron Rodgers could be back in Week 15, that does fantasy owners no good if they have already been bounced from their respective playoffs. If you are in the hunt to make post-season or chasing a spot, it’s time to trade away of let wide receiver Jordy Nelson go. The preference is to trade, but on limited rosters you aren’t playing Nelson (8 catches, 68 yards last three games). He’ll still have value to someone as a stash for the playoffs, meanwhile you can pick up some talent that you can use now to make the dance.

Also, it’s time to drop tight end Jordan Reed. He’s out again this week and it’s likely he won’t be healthy the rest of the season. He’s a great talent, but injuries have completely upended his season. Through 10 weeks, Reed currently the No.23 fantasy TE (in PPR) has missed 3 games and his best effort came in week 7 when he scored twice and totaled 26.40 fantasy points. In his other five games, he’s only reached double-digit fantasy points in one; time to drop him.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

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November 17th 2017

Friday Evening Edition

My Week 11 Fantasy Favorites

Believe me when I say, there’s no deep research here. I’m not using any algorithms or scientific formulas, but at the same time I am not flipping coins or selecting the more dominant state flowers. I just go by what my eyes see and what the numbers tell me. After 10 weeks of action, these are my favorite plays for Sunday Week 11;

Derek Carr (Oak); I like the Raiders quarterback at home this week against the Patriots. And while some believe the Pats defense is playing much better, let’s not confuse Brock Osweiler with Derek Carr. The talent level and abilities are not comparable. I expect a huge day for Carr.

Latavius Murray (Min); The Rams have not been great against the run this season and their secondary is going to have all they can handle with the Wonder Twins (Diggs & Thielen) on Sunday. Murray should see a healthy number of carries (14-18) this week, enough to do some damage. He could break off a few big runs if he can get to that second level. The Rams safeties won’t be able to cheat up and will likely be making most of their tackles 5-6 yards beyond the line-of-scrimmage.

Melvin Gordon (LAC); Last week was Austin Ekeler outplaying Melvin, but this week look for Gordon to bounce back in a big way against the Bills. Gordon will line up against a defense that has allowed the 6th most rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns (most in the league) this season. Gordon should get plenty of play on Sunday and turn in a great effort.

Michael Crabtree (Oak); With Carr expected to have a big day on Sunday according to me, Crabtree should be one of the big recipients. The Patriots defense has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points, 3rd most receptions, and the 2nd most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers this season. Crabtree is the No.23 fantasy WR (in PPR) this season and will look to climb the board on Sunday.

Nelson Agholor (Phi); The Eagles wide receiver has been a quiet surprise this season, scoring in five of his first seven games. He’s been off the past two games, but he’s got a tasty matchup on Sunday against the Cowboys. The Cowboys defense has allowed the 5th most receptions and 3rd most touchdowns to opposing receivers. I am expecting Agholor to make at least one trip to pay dirt.

Travis Kelce (KC); Quite simply the Giants defense has played the worst against opposing tight ends this season. Kelce will matchup against a defense that has allowed the 3rd most receiving yards (632 yards) and the most touchdowns (10) to opposing tight ends; sounds like a big day coming for Travis.

That's My Take.
~David Ortega

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November 17th 2017

Friday Evening Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Five

It’s another Friday and time to tilt back a few suds and look over the Sunday matchups for Week 11. There are a few Sunday tilts I am real excited about and believe will have a huge impact on fantasy outcomes for this week. These are my Five Quick Takes for Week 11 of the fantasy football season;

There will be plenty of shots fired in Oakland

Local residents needn’t worry, not predicting any drivebys or violence in the area, but there will be plenty of noise and excitement on the Oakland sideline on Sunday. A lot of folks think the Patriots defense is playing well, Carr and company will deflate those thoughts. I am expecting a big passing day for Carr and lots of catches for Company C (Cooper, Crabtree, and Cook).

Here come the Chiefs again

It’s been a few weeks since the Chiefs offense has looked like the same juggernaut that started the season, but in week 11 Andy Reid and company will get things rolling again. Tight end Travis Kelce could be in line for a big day facing a porous Giants D against tight ends and the dual threat running back Kareem Hunt figures big against a defense allowing the 9th most fantasy points to running backs.

Big day for the Running Back

It may not be big for all running backs, but I am seeing big days for the Chargers Melvin Gordon and the Bills LeSean McCoy. Both opposing defenses have struggled against the run with the Bills allowing the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing running backs and the Chargers ranked dead last against the run allowing over 135 yards rushing per game.

Get ready for a Super-Shootout at the Dome

From what I've seen from these quarterbacks and the opposing defenses, this matchup is going to be left in the hands of Drew Brees and Kirk Cousins. Brees resume speaks for itself and he'll be up to the task. I also believe that Cousins will also be up to task. Cousins is coming off an impressive week 10 performance with three touchdowns (one pass, two run) against the Vikings. In this matchup both QBs are top 10 this week with the potential of 20-plus fantasy points each.

Sleeper Sunday is Awake

These may not actually be Sleepers, but more likely these guys are not at the top of any lists for Sunday. Keep your fantasy radars on the Vikings Latavius Murray, the Jaguars Marqise Lee, and the out-of-leftfield call, the Giants running back Orleans Darkwa. Murray has a great matchup this week with the Rams secondary more than occupied with the Vikes receivers. Lee is healthy this week and has been trending in the right direction with 23 targets and 14 receptions I this last two games.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

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November 15th 2017

Wednesday Evening Edition

On The Cover This Week

Flying High Under the Radar

Last season the Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen was hardly a household name, even in his home town. And even after posting career highs in receptions (69), yards receiving (967), and touchdowns (5), Thielen entered this season as a quiet mention and a No. 2 wide receiver.

He was last year’s No.29 fantasy WR (in PPR), but this season Thielen has arrived and after 10 weeks, he is currently the league’s No.3 fantasy wideout.

He’s no longer a groomsmen, he is a groom. Thielen is a solid No.1 WR and a must-start every week.

In 9 games this season Thielen has 56 catches (tied for 5th in the league) for 793 receiving yards (3rd in the league) and two touchdowns. He’s quickly risen to the fantasy threshold as one of the league’s top receivers.

Thielen has recorded five games with over 90 yards receiving and has 2 games this season with over 150 yards. He has also recorded at least 5 catches in every game this season, including three games with 8 or more receptions.

He and Stefon Diggs are the new Wonder Twins in Minnesota, and with these two the Vikings are having Superbowl visions.

Thielen may have entered this season under the radar, but he is clearly flying high in 2017.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

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November 13th 2017

Monday Evening Edition

Sunday’s Lineup Killers (Week 10)

There are weeks when your fantasy studs perform big and there are weeks where they give you what you need to survive, then there are the weeks, where you wish that Sunday could start all over. Those are the days, your studs become lineup killers and these were some from Week 10;

QB-Tyrod Taylor; The Bills starter had a rough outing on Sunday completing just 9 of 18 passes for 56 yards with a pick before being benched. Taylor had just completed a nice three game run before his struggles on Sunday. Going forward he’s still a QB2 in most formats, until further notice.

RB-Doug Martin; The Buccaneers running back struggled to find any openings on Sunday rushing for just 51 yards on 20 carries (2.55 yards per carry). The good news for owners, Martin saw 20 carries and hopefully there won’t be too many more of these games ahead.

RB-Jordan Howard; The Bears running back finished as the No.47 fantasy RB for the week totaling just 54 yards rushing on 15 carries. It was not a good day for Jordan, but his 15 carries were a low number since week 2. Fantasy owners can expect that to change going forward with better results.

WR-Marvin Jones Jr; The Lions wide receiver was held to just one catch for 22 yards receiving on 2 targets. All were season lows for Jones and coming after a three game run where he averaged better than 6 catches and over 100 receiving yards per game. Look for Jones a solid WR2 to bounce back next week against the Bears.

TE-Jack Doyle; After four straight weeks with at least 6 receptions and 44 yards receiving and averaging double-digit fantasy points, the Colts tight end laid an egg on Sunday. Doyle finished with just 2 catches for 9 yards. It was a tough day for owners, but it was just one game.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega