FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID"S DAILY DIGEST

December 3rd, 2016

Saturday Morning Edition

Fantasy Playoffs, Playoffs, Playoffs

We are not quite there, but we have reached the nitty-gritty! With one week left before the Fantasy Playoffs start in many re-draft leagues. I play in several myself and this week is pivotal for my post-season hopes.

A couple of early lineup moves in my PPR leagues I made this week leading up to Sunday; in the Thursday night game I inserted Vikings wide receiver Stefon Diggs and Vikings running back Jerrick McKinnon. These were not necessarily simple plays, especially McKinnon, but being in PPR leagues both plays worked out.

With options likes Davante Adams, Chris Hogan, and Kelvin Benjamin, I chose Diggs for his target probability; he saw 8.0 targets on Thursday night and caught all eight. Diggs did not accumulate much yardage, but his eight grabs posted double-digit fantasy points and saved me.

Like Diggs, McKinnon was a tougher choice with options like Ryan Matthews (OUT) and Rob Kelley (only 8 targets all season) available, and his five catches on six targets and touchdown reception came up big. I may still roll out Kelley, but I am sitting in a much better position with McKinnons 16.50 fantasy points.

Looking at more lineup help for this week, with Jordan Reed OUT this Sunday I will be inserted tight end Vernon Davis. Even with Reed in the lineup, Davis has managed to make some noise and become fantasy relevant even as the number two tight end. Since week 6, Davis has averaged 3.5 receptions and 59 yards (this includes a week 11 donut). With Reed in the lineup he’s a low end TE2, but this Sunday Davis should be considered a TE1.

With the lack of consistency for tight ends like the Packers Jared Cook (2 targets last week) and the Rams Lance Kendricks (4 times this season with two or fewer receptions), I am rolling with the Niners Vance McDonald. He’s not a huge upgrade over the other two this week, but his five previous starts with no fewer than six targets leading and recent four game run of 3.5 receptions and 60 yards per game average with two touchdowns make him a much safer play this week. He’ll get the Bears this week who have done a pretty good job versus opposing tight ends, but they have surrendered 5 touchdowns (tied for 5th most) making McDonald a nice red-zone threat this week.

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 27th, 2016
Sunday Morning Edition

Week 12 Four Horsemen

Looking at today's matchups I have four fantasy plays (QB-RB-WR-TE) that I am particularly confident in that will produce solid fantasy numbers for owners. These are all must starts today;

Quarterback
The Saints quarterback Drew Brees (the number two fantasy quarterback this season) faces a tough matchup against the Rams today, but today he's enjoying home cooking. In the dome Brees has been spectacular passing for more than 300 yards in 4 of his 5 starts. His numbers at home; 366 yards passing/game, 17 touchdowns, and only 4 interceptions. Brees at home is gold.

Running Back
The Dolphins are home today to face the Niners and running back Jay Ajayi will have a chance to slice up a defense that allows the most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including 1,576 yards rushing (most in the league). After two weeks without reaching at least 100 yards on the ground, Ajayi will be good for 100 yards and a touchdown today.

Wide Receiver
The Seahawks will be on the road today, but that won't matter to wide receiver Doug Baldwin. The Seahawks pass catcher has been efficient and effective the past three weeks catching 16 passes off 19 targets for 252 yards and three touchdowns. This week he draws a Bucs defense that allows the 4 most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, including 14 receiving touchdowns (tied for 3rd most).

Tight End
And a surprise pick here is the Browns tight end Gary Barnidge. This may be the only risky play since Barnidge has been a great disappointment this season, as has the Browns offense all-together. Barnidge actually has a good matchup for PPR owners facing a Giants defense that struggles to cover opposing tightends; 55 receptions allowed (tied for 7th most) and 646 receiving yards allowed (tied for 10th most). This won't be a huge game, but it could be Barnidge's best game this season.

That's My Take.

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 26th 2016
Saturday Evening Edition

Week 12 Perfect Lineup

I usually play two Perfect lineups each week, one on NFL.com and the other on DraftDay Fantasy site. Here is my perfect lineup for week 12 on DraftDay.

QB-Tom Brady (NE) - Brady will take his best shots against a Jets secondary that has struggled mightily at times this season. Brady is coming off a big 4 touchdown performance last week and has thrown at least three in four of his six starts. Sunday could be another big day for Tom.

RB-DeMarco Murray (TEN) - Since week 7 Murray has had no fewer than 19 touches and has eclipsed 127 total yards in three of his five starts. Murray is the number 3 scoring fantasy running back and should see a hefty workload on Sunday.

RB-Lamar Miller (HOU) - The Texans ball carrier will face a Chargers defense that allows the 5th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including 12 rushing touchdowns (tied for second most). Miller should see a lion’s share of touches on Sunday giving him plenty of opportunities to produce.

WR-Odell Beckham Jr (NYG) - The Giants dynamic wideout was slowed up a week ago, but with 6 games of 10 plus targets this season, expect OBJ to see plenty of work on Sunday. Facing a Browns defense that allows the 9th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, including the 6th most receiving yards and 14 receiving touchdowns (tied for 3rd most).

WR-Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) - The Cardinals will host the Falcons on Sunday and Larry Fitzgerald will draw coverage from a defense that allows the 5th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. FItzgerald will see plenty of chances on Sunday, especially in the red-zone.

WR-Rishard Matthews (TEN) - The Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota has been sizzling lately and his favorite wide receiver has been Matthews. The Titans wideout faces the Bears secondary that has allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing wide receiver. In his last three games Matthews has totaled 18 receptions on 28 targets for 248 yards and three touchdowns. He should have plenty of chances to improve these numbers on Sunday.

TE-Greg Olsen (CAR) - The heavily targeted Panthers pass catcher is the number fantasy scoring tight end this season. This week Olsen will draw the Raiders defense that allows the 8th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Olsen has been quiet recently, but this could change Sunday against the Raiders who allow the 9th most receiving yards and 5 receiving touchdowns (tied for 4th most allowed).

PK-Justin Tucker (BAL) - The Ravens kicker has been solid this season and with an offense that has had it struggles he could see some extra shots from close range on Sunday.

D/ST-Dolphins - The Dolphins are hosting the 49ers who will have to make the long travel across country for the early kickoff start time. This will be a tough matchup for the Niners who are coming off a very poor performance last week against the Patriots.

That’s My Take.

 ~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 25th, 2016
Friday evening Edition
Week 12: Friday Fantasy Fixx
So I am looking at the passing game and matchups this week and these are a few of my favorites to start for Sunday.
With receivers like Stefon Diggs OUT this week (did not play yesterday), fantasy owners will be looking for some help and could find salvage this week from players like the Rams wideout Kenny Britt. With a decent matchup against the Saints defense this week, Britt could turn in a nice Sunday. While Britt has not been spectacular this season, the Saints secondary has allowed the 8th most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers. Britt is the Rams leading receiver and normally sees a healthy dose of targets each week. He’s not going to light up any boards, but he could fill the need this week as a low WR3 or flex option.
Another receiving option that should draw some lineup consideration this Sunday is the Ravens tight end Dennis Pitta. The Ravens will host the Bengals this week and Pitta will see coverage that has allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, including the 5th most receiving yards and six receiving touchdowns (tied for the 3rd most). Pitta is not a primary option in the pass game, but could see a few more targets this week, especially in the red zone. He’s definitely worth a look in deep leagues.
With the Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota playing as well as he has over the past several weeks, one of his targets that should be started this week is wide out Rishard Matthews. Matthews has scored in double-digits in his past three games and this week he has a great shot to make it four in a row. The Titans will visit the Bears this Sunday and look to exploit a defense that allows the 6th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, including the 2nd most receptions and the 7th most yards receiving. If you have him, he’s definitely a mid-WR2 this week. Start him Sunday.
That’s My Take.
~David G Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 25th, 2016
Friday afternoon Edition

Week 12 Fantasy Notes

As the fantasy playoffs approach, fantasy owners will need to be more precise and decisive with their lineups this week and next. When this season started, certain players were viewed as your starters, but recent performances could be shaking your confidence.

Take comfort owners as this week Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer is set to bounce back big. After recent struggles, just one game over 15 fantasy points in his last 7 starts, Palmer will be facing a Falcons defense that allows the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including 2,970 yards passing (5th most) and 23 passing touchdowns (2nd most). Palmer has just two games this season with 3 or more touchdowns, but has passed for more than 300 yards four times. This Sunday against the Falcons, fantasy owners can expect Palmer to improve both of those numbers.

It’s unlikely anyone would even think of sitting Rams running back Todd Gurley, especially considering where he was likely selected in their respective fantasy draft, but his recent run of unspectacular has got to be getting tiresome. Well all that is likely to end this week in New Orleans. Gurley and Company will be making a trip to the Big Easy this week to take on the Saints and a defense that allows the third most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including 12 rushing touchdowns (tied for 2nd most). And where Gurley could be the biggest surprise is in the PPR format. Gurley is only the 19th ranked fantasy running back and has not been prominent in the pass game, but could see some extra targets this week as the Saints also allow the 5th most receiving yards to opposing running backs; great news for owners. Owners should expect 25 plus touches this week and a big day from the Rams ball carrier.

That’s my take.

~David G. Ortega