FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

December 11th, 2016
Sunday Morning Edition

Sunday Starts

Per Adam Schefter, the Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian will start today. That’s enough for me to roll out wide receiver Demaryius Thomas. In his previous five starts with Siemian under center, Thomas is averaging nearly 10 targets per game. The Titans allow the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and over the past four weeks, their secondary has been the worst. Start Thomas!

The Vikings and wide receiver Stefon Diggs will face the Jaguars today in Jacksonville and while on paper the matchup may not seem all to appealing, I am leaning with Diggs. The Jags have been stingy for the most part this season, but coming off a strong showing (8 receptions off 8 targets) against the Cowboys Diggs will be tough to slow down. Diggs is the Vikings number one receiver, healthy again look for double-digits and lots of chances to be the case today. Start Diggs.

Another receiver I am leaning on heavily for Sunday, the Falcons Taylor Gabriel. The Falcons wideout plays more like a scat-back and his speed is deadly. With Julio Jones banged up and not looking good for Sunday I expect Gabriel to see a huge uptick in his weekly 5.25 targets per game that he’s enjoyed the past four weeks. Facing the Rams could see him improve his 4 touchdown total this week. Over the past two weeks, the Rams secondary has been awful versus opposing wide receivers allowing the 5th most fantasy points, including 4 touchdowns. Start Gabriel!

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Decemeber 10th 2016
Saturday Morning Edition

Week 14 Fantasy Notes

Taking a look at this week’s quarterback position presents it’s own challenges and dilemmas with so much at stake. Do you ride with what has gotten you there, or do you read the numbers and play the matchups? Decisions, decisions...

The Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has been a hot fantasy prospect much of the season. Slotting in as the number 3 scoring quarterback Ryan has been a regular weekly start’em, but such has not been the case of late. In his first nine games this season, Ryan topped the 20 fantasy points marker six times. 

In his last three starts Ryan has yet to reach 19 fantasy points (standard scoring) and with a banged up wide receiver Julio Jones, the prospects don’t look good. This week will also present a difficult matchup on the road facing a tough Rams defense. The Rams defense has not been invincible this season ranking at 12th fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks this season and they have also been shredded the past two weeks allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to quarterbacks. At best Ryan is a questionable, but safe start (if you can afford to be safe).

On the other hand, if you need to swing for the fences and can throw caution to the wind Colin Kapaernick may be the play for you this week. The Niners signal caller is coming off one of his worst performances on the field and statistically; 1 for 5 passing for 4 yards and just 20 yards rushing. In fairness conditions were atrocious in the Windy City (Chicago), but just the same this type of performance is concerning for fantasy owners.

The good news for Kap owners and fans, the Niners are home and coming to town are the lowly New York Jets. The Jets are coming off a woeful Monday night showing against the Colts where quarterback Andrew Luck and company made mincemeat of their secondary. Luck completed 22 of 28 for 278 yards and four touchdowns; this followed a week 12 performance from Patriots quarterback Tom Brady who passed for 286 yards with two touchdowns. 

The prospects of a good Sunday are there for Kapaernick and the weather should not be a factor. Play him over quarterbacks like Ryan Tannehill, Carson Wentz, Trevor Siemian, and Marcus Mariota at your own risk. With options like Matt Ryan and Carson Palmer, I am sticking with my starters.

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

December 9th, 2016
Friday Night Edition

Friday's Fantasy Fixx

The Fantasy Playoffs are underway and unless you had the Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce in your lineup last night, with players like Rob Gronkowski (Injured Reserve), Julius Thomas (OUT), and Gary Barnidge (no quarterback) your options may be limited on Sunday. Playing in a multitude of leagues as I do each year, this seems to be one of the dilemmas I am not able to escape this week.

Gary Barnidge has been fantasy irrelevant since the season started and with the return of quarterback Robert Griffin III, there's no guarantee this will change and the risk this week is too great. With Gronk sidelined, fantasy owners can only hope that tight end Martellus Bennett will rise to the TE1 we believed him to be. So far in Bennett's past three games this has not happened; just 6 receptions for 40 yards receiving. Even with quarterback Tom Brady under center, Bennett may be too risky to sit on until Monday night.

Some options that some may be looking at for Sunday are the Redskins number two tight end Vernon Davis. Even with starter Jordan Reed in the lineup Davis has been productive at times, but faced with a tough matchup agains the Eagles (ranked 4th for the fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends). With so much at stake this week, owners may be better served avoiding Davis.

A less than (but still) risky play this week could be the Rams tight end Lance Kendricks. By far Kendricks has been one of the teams leading pass receiving options, third on the Rams with 73 targets this season. And this week Kendricks faces the Falcons defense that has allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. But like so many other options, Kendricks carries a lot of risk; just 2 catches for 13 yards last week. You have to like his matchup, but always the question "can you trust him?"

Probably my best option that I will lean on heavily this Sunday is the Niners tight end Vance McDonald. Now McDonald is coming off a week where the entire offense was completely ineffective and he only caught 2 balls for 9 yards. Prior to that McDonald had four straight games with at least 3 receptions and 46 yards receiving with two touchdowns. With the Jets coming to town and a defense that has allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends over the past four weeks, including three touchdowns McDonald is undoubtedly a strong play on Sunday.

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID"S DAILY DIGEST

December 3rd, 2016

Saturday Morning Edition

Fantasy Playoffs, Playoffs, Playoffs

We are not quite there, but we have reached the nitty-gritty! With one week left before the Fantasy Playoffs start in many re-draft leagues. I play in several myself and this week is pivotal for my post-season hopes.

A couple of early lineup moves in my PPR leagues I made this week leading up to Sunday; in the Thursday night game I inserted Vikings wide receiver Stefon Diggs and Vikings running back Jerrick McKinnon. These were not necessarily simple plays, especially McKinnon, but being in PPR leagues both plays worked out.

With options likes Davante Adams, Chris Hogan, and Kelvin Benjamin, I chose Diggs for his target probability; he saw 8.0 targets on Thursday night and caught all eight. Diggs did not accumulate much yardage, but his eight grabs posted double-digit fantasy points and saved me.

Like Diggs, McKinnon was a tougher choice with options like Ryan Matthews (OUT) and Rob Kelley (only 8 targets all season) available, and his five catches on six targets and touchdown reception came up big. I may still roll out Kelley, but I am sitting in a much better position with McKinnons 16.50 fantasy points.

Looking at more lineup help for this week, with Jordan Reed OUT this Sunday I will be inserted tight end Vernon Davis. Even with Reed in the lineup, Davis has managed to make some noise and become fantasy relevant even as the number two tight end. Since week 6, Davis has averaged 3.5 receptions and 59 yards (this includes a week 11 donut). With Reed in the lineup he’s a low end TE2, but this Sunday Davis should be considered a TE1.

With the lack of consistency for tight ends like the Packers Jared Cook (2 targets last week) and the Rams Lance Kendricks (4 times this season with two or fewer receptions), I am rolling with the Niners Vance McDonald. He’s not a huge upgrade over the other two this week, but his five previous starts with no fewer than six targets leading and recent four game run of 3.5 receptions and 60 yards per game average with two touchdowns make him a much safer play this week. He’ll get the Bears this week who have done a pretty good job versus opposing tight ends, but they have surrendered 5 touchdowns (tied for 5th most) making McDonald a nice red-zone threat this week.

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 27th, 2016
Sunday Morning Edition

Week 12 Four Horsemen

Looking at today's matchups I have four fantasy plays (QB-RB-WR-TE) that I am particularly confident in that will produce solid fantasy numbers for owners. These are all must starts today;

Quarterback
The Saints quarterback Drew Brees (the number two fantasy quarterback this season) faces a tough matchup against the Rams today, but today he's enjoying home cooking. In the dome Brees has been spectacular passing for more than 300 yards in 4 of his 5 starts. His numbers at home; 366 yards passing/game, 17 touchdowns, and only 4 interceptions. Brees at home is gold.

Running Back
The Dolphins are home today to face the Niners and running back Jay Ajayi will have a chance to slice up a defense that allows the most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including 1,576 yards rushing (most in the league). After two weeks without reaching at least 100 yards on the ground, Ajayi will be good for 100 yards and a touchdown today.

Wide Receiver
The Seahawks will be on the road today, but that won't matter to wide receiver Doug Baldwin. The Seahawks pass catcher has been efficient and effective the past three weeks catching 16 passes off 19 targets for 252 yards and three touchdowns. This week he draws a Bucs defense that allows the 4 most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, including 14 receiving touchdowns (tied for 3rd most).

Tight End
And a surprise pick here is the Browns tight end Gary Barnidge. This may be the only risky play since Barnidge has been a great disappointment this season, as has the Browns offense all-together. Barnidge actually has a good matchup for PPR owners facing a Giants defense that struggles to cover opposing tightends; 55 receptions allowed (tied for 7th most) and 646 receiving yards allowed (tied for 10th most). This won't be a huge game, but it could be Barnidge's best game this season.

That's My Take.

~David G. Ortega