January 27th, 2017
Friday Night Late Edition
Friday Fantasy Fixx
There are no games this weekend, but that doesn’t mean we can’t talk some fantasy football on a Friday night and look ahead to the Super Bowl.
This is not the match up I was expecting, although I am not surprised; both teams are well deserving. I think last week, quarterbacks Matt Ryan and Tom Brady just rose above and out-played the competition to get here.
Now there are no games this weekend to discuss, so I won’t give opinion on plays or matchup just yet. The good news for us football fans, heading into next weekend, both teams should be as healthy as they have ever been this season; a lot of fantasy play options available.
Without going into too much detail, my overall impression of this matchup is going to be one high scoring affair. I’m not aware of the current over/under, but I would confidently put it at 61.5 points. There’s no way both teams are not scoring at least 4 touchdowns each, if not more.
I will give credit to both defenses, they are stock with good players and they will make plays, but both offenses are just loaded with too many playmakers and too many big plays.
The last time I saw a matchup of similar proportion was the Super Bowl 13-Steelers and Cowboys. Both teams were loaded with talent, playmakers, and greatness. I’m pretty sure we have that covered in this one with names like Tom Terrific, Matty Ice, Julio, and 7-11.
If you watch this one, and if you enjoy fantasy this is one you will not want to miss, my boldest prediction is; points, points, and more points.
Good luck to the Falcons and Patriots and can’t wait until next Sunday!
That’s my Take
~David G. Ortega
January 22nd, 2017
Sunday Morning Edition
Sunday DFS
Another Sunday, another chance to play some fantasy football. It’s been a long week, but the waiting is over and today is Championship Sunday. After last weekend’s classics, I can’t wait to tune in to watch both games today. And like last week, I will be playing some DFS.
And like last week, my anchor play today is going to be Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers ($9,600 DSF salary). He is carrying a hefty salary, but in these epic matchups today I have a feeling and believe Rodgers is going to continue his hot playoff run. Last week A-rod threw for a ton, but only found the end-zone twice; today will be different. In a shoot-out with the NFC’s number two seed, Atlanta Falcons, Rodgers is going to have to elevate his play once again to carry the Pack. With 40-plus passes today, Rodgers throws for 325+ yards and three touchdowns.
My second anchor is going to be Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell (9,500 DSF salary) There’s no question Bell is going to be heavily involved in the running game and even if the Patriots have some success slowing down the Steelers ball carrier, he’s one of the teams best pass receivers. I expect another heavy workload, but unlike last week Bell will find the end-zone.
And with this being Championship weekend and so much at stake, I am going to load up with Packers; wide receiver Randall Cobb ($6,500 DFS salary) and tight end Jared Cook ($6,400 DFS salary).
Last week Cobb was relatively quiet not finding the end-zone, but he did grab 7 balls on 8 targets. If he sees as much work today as he did a week ago, you can expect much better numbers and likely a score.
To the contrary, Cook was much more productive catching 6 passes (on 11 targets) for 103 yards and a touchdown. These are big numbers to replicate, but it’s highly likely he’ll have every opportunity today against the Falcons defense that allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
With so much salary invested in the Packers offense, one play that I am leaning with and believe may come up big today is the Steelers wide receiver Eli Rogers ($4,900 DFS salary). Last week he did not breakout, but he did see 7 targets; a good sign he’ll be involved today. As well as the Patriots have been on defense this season, they did allow the 10th most 20+ yards completions to opposing teams.
That’s My Take.
~David G. Ortega
January 14th, 2017
Saturday morning Edition
Fantasy Five for Saturday
Back in Week 6 the Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan ($8,300 DFS salary) torched the Seahawks secondary completing 27 of 42 passes for 335 yards and three touchdowns. Ryan has been brilliant throughout his 2016 campaign, passing for nearly 5,000 yards and tossing 38 touchdowns (2nd in the league). Despite the success the Seahawks defense has had against opposing quarterbacks, I believe Ryan is in for another big day on Saturday against the Seahawks.
Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones ($8,300 DFS salary) is just a beast and in the earlier matchup this season with the Seahawks he just did his thing; 7 receptions, 139 yards, and a touchdown. The Seahawks will definitely focus on trying to stop Jones, but Falcons will have OC Kyle Shanahan on the case and ready to show the NFL teams that passed on him why they made a mistake. Expect the Falcons to move Jones around and make a concerted effort to get the ball in his hands; no fewer than 10 targets for the receiving monster today, plenty of opportunities to post safe numbers.
With the Falcons offense rolling on Saturday, my expectation is this game will take on the shape of a good old fashioned shootout. I am sure the Hawks would prefer to stay with the ground game, but with quarterback Russell Wilson ($8,200 DFS salary) under center, they won’t shy from taking it to the air. Wilson has the ability to rise and play big and that’s what I would expect from the former Badger out of Wisconsin.
The Texans-Patriots matchup has the feel of a defensive battle, rather than shootout. The Patriots are always tough at home, the Texans offense is questionable on the road in this one, and the Texans defense is one of the best in the league. I am not expecting many fireworks in this one, but I do like Patriots running back Dion Lewis ($5,400 DFS salary) to heavily involved, especially in the passing game. Lewis averaged better than 16 touches per game over the last three weeks of the season. I would expect similar numbers in this one, but look for more involvement in the short passing game from Lewis.
As I speculate, the Texans-Patriots matchup will be more about the defense and one key factor will be place-kicker Stephen Gostkowski ($4,800 DSF salary). Playing at home the Patriots defense will put a lot of pressure on quarterback Brock Osweiler and the Texans offense. Turnovers and short fields could dictate this one and Gostkowski will play big.
These are DFS plays I am leaning with today.
That’s my Take
~David G. Ortega
January 11th, 2017
Wednesday Night Edition
Divisional Round DFS
Another week of fantasy football and life is good. With the Divisional matchups set, there are plenty of plays this week that I like, so let’s take a look at the core plays I will be building my (Fan Duel) DFS lineups around this week.
Let’s start with defense. Although the Texans may have a number of coaches that have been cycled through the Patriot’s coaching carousel including Bill O’Brien, at home the Patriots defense ($5,100 salary) is still going to be very tough to crack. Even as the highest salaried defense, the Patriots are a safe play this week against an offense that ranks in the bottom 10 for giving fantasy points to opposing defense. The Patriots defense has also scored in double digits in two of their last three homes games; that’s trending in the right direction.
Another trend that I like as a bargain play this week is the other Atlanta running back Tevin Coleman ($4,500 salary). Starter running back Devonta Freeman ($7,600 salary) is going to be a popular play this week, but at his current salary and 11 touchdowns this season Coleman could be a nice contrarian play.
The Cowboys defense is ranked 31st versus opposing tight ends and over the last four weeks of the season they allowed the most. This sets up Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers ($8,800 salary) and his tight end Jared Cook ($5,400 salary) as possibly a nice tandem play for this weekend. Rodgers has had the hot hand of late to say the least; in his last 8 games 22 touchdowns and zero interceptions. Cook missed the first matchup versus the Cowboys, but you can bet he’ll be heavily involved with the likelihood of no Jordy Nelson.
Rounding out the line-up, a low play at place kicker Nick Novak ($4,500 salary) and a nice value, but a little risky play with Seahawks wide receiver Paul Richardson ($4,700 salary) opens the door for sliding in a couple of big guns like Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones, Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown, and Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott.
On paper these might sound and look good, but that’s why they play the games. Good luck this weekend if you play.
That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega
January 7th, 2017
Saturday Morning Edition
Wildcard Saturday
With today’s games getting ready to heat up in less than 90 minutes, it’s time to take a look at some fantasy picks that could work for all of us DFS players.
At $7,400 salary, wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins could be considered a risky value play today. Hopkins is coming off a down season from 2015, but he’s still a great talent with tremendous upside. With the Texans reverting back to quarterback Brock Osweiler, I would expect a concerted effort today to get the ball to Hopkins. The Raiders defense is beatable by leagues standards allowing the 12th most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers. I expect to see Osweiler target the talented wideout no less than 10 times today; plenty of opportunities to make plays and find the end zone.
Another value play at $4,500 that is more of the sleeper variety is Seahawks tight end Luke Wilson. Clearly the number two tight end and far down on the pecking order, Wilson’s value is most prominent in the red-zone. There’s no question the Lion’s defense will focus on trying to matchup with and slow down wide receiver Doug Baldwin and tight end Jimmy Graham. I wouldn’t expect anything more than a handful of targets for Wilson (maybe 4-5 today), but likely most will come inside the 20 where he’s been effective. In his last two games, Wilson has 6 receptions, including two for touchdowns. The Lions secondary has also allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, including 10 touchdowns.
That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega
