September 26th, 2015
Saturday
Fantasy Football Rule Number...
When in doubt, Thursday's Out.
No, this is not my rule, but it happens to be one that I am strongly endorsing. It's always a tough start in any fantasy format playing on a short week, so unless you are starting those typical fantasy studs that are locked into your weekly lineup, you are safer staying away from those Thursday night matchups.
First of all, no one wants to go into the weekend with a couple of fantasy duds already locked into your lineup. It's just too much time to languish in the misery of second guessing and wishful thinking.
Where's the evidence? I don't know if there are any hard numbers to support the coined phrase, but just looking at this past Thursday's matchup is enough to convince me.
Even an elite receiver like the Giants Odell Beckham Jr provided little to excite the average fantasy owner. Now he did have a nice night with 7 receptions for 79 yards and a score, but considering where he was drafted and his current salary on the DFS sites, that bar is a little too low.
The Redskins tight end Jordan Reed also turned in a nice effort with 6 catches for 96 yards, but the lack of a score hurts those owners in leagues where touchdowns are heavy (especially the DFS sites). And if you were like me believing the hype around the Redskins rookie running back Matt Jones, his 38 yards rushing with a fumble and zero catches were costly in those lineups you played him in. Wide receiver Pierre Garcon, with DeSean Jackson out was a disappointing 5 catches for 64 yards and no score.
The best plays of the night were the Giants quarterback Eli Manning with 2 touchdown passes, 279 yards passing, and no turnovers, and wide recevier Rueben Randle with 7 receptions, 116 yards receivng, and a score.
When breaking it down, you had a division rivalry, so the teams are very familiar with one another. Playing on a short week it's tough to expect a traveling team to play big. You have an 0-2 Giants team, that could easily be 2-0, playing at home; you have to expect a better effort. It just reads as a risky play to count on much offensive output from the road team.
I think next time, if there's any dobut, Thursday's out.
That's my take.
~David G
September 20th 2015
Sunday
Sunday Rankings
After watching some replays of a few of the week 1 matchups (but I also watched quite a few games on Sunday), I came up with my short list of favorite plays for week 2.
These are a lists of favorite for Sunday, not in any order of ranking, just the fact I like their matchup on Sunday;
Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers (just the best in the game)
Carson Palmer (the former Trojan looks like he's got plenty left)
Drew Brees (a bounce back week for Brees at home)
Andrew Luck
Ben Roethlisberger (Niners D could force Big Ben to sling-it all day)
Sam Bradford
Matt Ryan (might not be a big passing day in yards, but 2-3 scores works)
Tom Brady
Colin Kaepernick (love his matchup agains the woeful Steelers D)
Tony Romo (could be forced to play catch-up today)
Running backs
Carlos Hyde (the kid looked strong in week 1, love his matchup today)
Adrian Peterson (he gets more than 20 touches today)
Doug Martin (should get it going today, 120-130 total yards today)
Bishop Sankey (playing the numbers, favorable matchup today)
Justin Forsett
Mark Ingram (involved in ground attack and pass game)
Darren Sproles (gets enough touches to be a strong flex)
Dion Lewis (even with Blount back, will see a lot of the field)
Marshawn Lynch (Packers D will get a huge load of Beast mode tonite)
Matt Forte (have to love his heavy workload)
Wide Receivers
Jordan Matthews (the number one in Philly)
Antonio Brown (consistency, consistency, consistency)
Keenan Allen
Brandon Coleman (can you say 7 targets in week 1, sleeper)
Odell Beckham Jr
Julio Jones (hard to keep a stud receiver out of the end-zone)
Larry Fitzgerald (a reliable target for Palmer, should find end-zone today)
Jermaine Kearse (busy week 1, could be heavily targeted in week 2)
John Brown (could follow up week 1 score with another trip today)
Pierre Garcon (this is a reach, but I like his matchup and no D-Jax)
Tight ends
Rob Gronkowski
Tyler Eifert (12 targets in week 1)
Vernon Davis
Jordan Reed (when he's healthy, he can play)
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (good matchup versus Saints today)
Heath Miller
Dwayne Allen (will have a good chance to score Monday night)
Jimmy Graham (still a top-10 play every week)
Ladarius Green (No Gates, another productive Sunday)
Martellus Bennett (will see a slew of targets today)
Now names omitted doen't mean poor performances today, only that the above names are my favorites for today.
That's my take for Week 2
~David G
September 13th, 2015
Sunday
Sunday Sleepers
I am not going to go through too many, so I will offer just a couple of Sleepers to consider for week 1.
In Green Bay with Nelson out (ACL injury) and James Jones only having been with the team for less than a week, quarterback Aaron Rodgers will be looking to utilize his full compliment of weapons this week. Running back Eddie Lacy will likely carry the load on the ground, but when the team enters the red-zone, I am expecting Rodgers to really open things up. One weapon that is not getting a lot of noteriety is tight end Richard Rogers. In his second season, the former Cal Bear is a big target at 6'4" and will face a Bears defense that was worst versus tight ends last season (standard scoring), allowing the second most touchdowns. I expect the Rodgers connection at least once today.
Another Sunday Sleeper I am targeting is wide receiver Rueben Randle. Over-shadowed by his teammate Odell Beckham Jr, Randle brings something to the table and has had success with quarterback Eli Manning in the past. With Victor Cruz ruled out, Manning is going to have to look other places beside OBJ in the pass game. Randle finished strong last season with back-to-back 100-yard receiving games and should be a lock for a couple of red-zone targets at 6'3".
Rodgers and Randle could be very successful plays in week 1.
Just my take.
~David G
September 13th, 2015
Sunday
Sunday Starters: Week 1
If you drafted well this past preseason and managed to avoid the injury bug, your lineup should be well set; play your studs. But for those of us already dealing with adversity and looking for Sunday Value, there are a handfull of plays I like that are worth noting.
This being the first weekend of NFL action, value will be key for many of us trying to come out on top in our weekly matchups. And for those of you (like me) who play the weekly games, Sunday value can be paramount.
Looking across the board, there are couple of low-value (in drafts and DFS pricing) wide receivers worth slotting in today; in Green Bay Davante Adams. Even with the return of James Jones, Adams value should remain in tact as the teams best deep threat. And if you recall, last season wide receiver Jordy Nelson averaged 15.5 yards per catch and had 19 receptions of 20 yards or more (inlcuding 8 for 40 yards or more); Adams will be filling Nelson's spot on Sunday.
Another wide receiver I like is the Falcons Leonard Hankerson. Listening to some sports talk, sounds like Roddy White is good to go for Monday, but none-the-less the Falcons run a lot of 3-receiver sets and Hankerson should see plenty of field; enough to find the end-zone.
A quiet running back this week (at least a player not getting a lot of hype or much love) is the Jets Chris Ivory. With no real other threat in the backfield to steal carries, Ivory should get plenty of run against a defense that faced the third most carries last season and allowed the second most rushing yards.
With all the injuries in Washington, as the dust settled the lone survivor at tight end was Jordan Reed. The Redskins tight end has plenty of talent and upside and if he can remain healthy, he'll be a nice weekly play for fantasy owners. Although his matchup is not considered favorable (Dolphins defend tight ends well), Reed in the slot has very good athletiscm and will benefit from wide recievers DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon on the outside. This could be a reach, but I like Reed to snag a few balls and reach the end-zone today.
Lastly, a tight end that should be in most lineups today is the Bears Martellus Bennett. As pointed out by ESPN's Mark Schlereth, the Bears new offense (under new head coach John Fox) is a carry-over of the Broncos from last season (tight ends were targeted 96 times in 2014). Bennett is also coming off a career high 90 reception season; so he's got great rapport with his quarterback Jay Cutler. In the new offense look for Cutler to lean on his trusty tight end today.
This is just my take for Week 1.
~David G
September 12, 2015
Saturday
Thursday's Fantasy Takeaway
Seeing as this is Saturday, this one is coming out a little late, but if there was anything to learn from Thursday night's matchup between the Patriots and Steelers, one thing for sure is not to bet against quarterback Tom Brady. Maybe the NFL also learned, don't make Brady mad, the rest of the league won't like him when he's mad.
A fired up Brady not only beat the NFL in "Deflate-Gate," beat the Steelers on Thursday night, but with guns-blazing he sent a message to the rest of the league; take notice Brady is in charge. In total command, Brady shredded the Steelers secondary for four touchdowns (three going to Gronk), completing 25 of 32 passes (78.1 completion percentage) and throwing for 288 yards. His 143.8 passer rating was his best week 1 rating, since 2007 (he had a week 1 passer rating of 146.6 and finished the season with 50 touchdowns and over 4,800 yards passing).
Just as many of us would have speculated, his favorite targets on Thursday night were tight end Rob Gronkowski (8 targets) and wide receiver Julian Edelman (12 targets). Both finished with strong nights to no surprise.
On the other side, Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown posted strong numbers (9 receptions, 133 yards receiving, and a score) as would be expected, but the pleasant surprise there was tight end Heath Miller's 11 targets for 8 receptions and 84 yards receiving. Miller's numbers were not exactly off the charts and likely the benefit of "lack of options" for Big Ben (quarterback Ben Roethlisberger) with wide receiver Martavis Bryant and running back Le'Veon Bell both out due to suspension, but they are noteworthy for week 2.
While many saw a lot of what we might expect fromt he big names, perhaps the biggest fantasy takeway was not Gronk's dominance, not Brady's command, or big Ben's 38 passes for 351 yards, but rather the Steelers weak secondary.
The Steelers corners allowed 14 of 16 passes to receivers to be completed for 130 yards, over 9 yards per catch. The secondary also allowed three touchdowns to the tight end, and up front failed to bring any real pressure to the quarterback. Add up these numbers and this could be fantasy hog heaven for owners with players facing the Steelers.
Looking ahead, take note fantasy owners;
Week 2, @St.Louis (TE Jared Cook could be interesting)
Week 4, @San Diego (WR Keenan Allen in the red-zone)
Week 5, vs Arizona (WR John Brown could duplicate Edelman numbers)
Week 7, @Kansas City (TE Travis Kelce, Zeus is in the house)
This is "just my take" #JMT and takeaway from Thursday nights contest and just a few fantasy thoughts looking forward.
~David G
