Saturday Edition
November 10th, 2012
Suicide Fantasy Football
Week 10
After a big week in fantasy last Sunday, my week 9 lineup did some big damage and moved me back inside the top 20. My team finished the week with 131 points led by a couple of fantastic fantasy performances.
The Lions running back Mikel Leshoure posted 25 fantasy points behind a three touchdown effort last week. The Bears wide receiver Brandon Marshall was also huge with three scores, adding 9 grabs for 122 yards receiving on his way to 39 fantasy points. These were the anchors of my huge week 9 run.
With my team on the move, there’s no time to let up!
My Line-up
Quarterback:
It’s not exactly what you would call an ideal matchup for Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford, but he’s had a hot hand of late and playing in dome this week he may as well be at home. Stafford has been throwing up some nice fantasy numbers over the last couple of weeks and he looks to be in a groove. Inside a dome this Sunday, I like him to have a big game.
Running Backs:
I am already down a running back this week with Rashad Jennings starting on Thursday, and he did not play very well. I liked his matchup at home against a Colts team not historically a good run defensive team, but Thursday night they kept Jennings under wraps.
My other ball carrier this week is Frank Gore. The Niners ball of thunder will face the Rams 13th ranked run defense this week. Yards are going to be tough this week, but at home I like Gore’s chances of punching a couple in this week against his divisional rival. While the Rams do a decent job of slowing the ground game, they have allowed 8 rushing touchdowns this season.
Wide Receivers:
My good hands folks for this week are the Chargers wide receiver Malcom Floyd and the Dolphins wide receiver Brian Hartline.
Starting with Floyd, he’s facing the Bucs secondary that is ranked last in the league versus the pass. The Bucs allow well over 300 yards in the air this season and have surrendered 13 touchdowns. The Buccaneers are also allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to wide receivers.
On the other side, Hartline has a little more challenging matchup facing the Titans 27th ranked pass defense; just a little. Hartline has been the Dolphins best receiver this season (41 receptions, 662 yards receiving) and quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s go-to-guy. Facing the Titans this week could be Hartline’s ticket to a return trip to the end zone. Hartline has only one touchdown this season and that came back in week 4. The Titans secondary has allowed 20 touchdowns this season and give up the 11th most fantasy points to wide receivers.
Tight End:
Quite simply the Patriots surrender the 5th most fantasy points to tight ends and the Bills tight end Scott Chandler has been one of quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick’s best scoring threats with 4 touchdowns this season. Back in week 4 against the Patriots, Chandler recorded 4 catches for 62 yards and scored twice. He’s a good be to at least cash one catch in for six this Sunday.
Place Kicker:
The Seahawks should have an easy time moving the ball down the field against the Jets, but could sputter in the red zone with a shaky passing game. Place kicker Steven Hauschka could see lots of opportunities at some short kicks this week.
Team Defense:
I am just playing the numbers here. The Titans offense gives up the 5th most fantasy points to opposing defenses and with their week-10 matchup on the road, I like the Dolphins defense. Cameron Wake and company should be all over quarterback Jake Locker this week and could get a few sacks and possibly cause a few turnovers.
These are my picks for week 10.
By David Ortega
Saturday Edition
November 10th, 2012
By the Numbers
One thing you learn as a sports fan, when you follow the game as I do, numbers seldom lie. It’s not an exact science, but rather a good measuring stick when trying to predict the outcome of matchups. As I said it’s not exact, but the numbers come from somewhere like tendency, consistency, and repetitiveness, all good points a fantasy owner can use to make tough decisions.
With week 10 under way and the brunt of the schedule in less than 24 hours, here are some of my fantasy favorites for Sunday; By The Numbers…
Quarterback Matthew Stafford;
The Lions quarterback has been looking more and more like the 2011 version over the past several weeks, completing better than 65% of his passes in his last three starts. Stafford is also averaging 300 yards passing over the same span. And even though he did not toss a touchdown last week, he was highly efficient completing 67% of his throws and setting up four easy rushing touchdowns. He’s got a tough matchup this week against the Vikings, but their secondary allows better than 60% completions and has surrendered 14 touchdowns this season. Stafford playing much better now, so he should be solid on Sunday.
Quarterback Josh Freeman;
The Buccaneers play caller has been on a roll for the past four weeks throwing 11 touchdowns and just one interception. Freeman is playing exceptionally well and has a great tandem in Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams to target on the outside. Only recently has he been looking more over the middle for his tight end Dallas Clark. Completing just 57% of his throws in his last four starts Freeman is stretching the field averaging well over 16 yards a completion. His 1,257 yards passing in his last four starts is an average of 314 yards passing per game. The Chargers don’t do a great job getting to the quarterback (just 13 sacks) and allow better than 63% passes completed. Freeman should give the Chargers secondary plenty of fits this Sunday.
Wide Receiver Brian Hartline;
Hartline leads the club with 41 receptions and 662 yards receiving this season. His 71 targets ranks among the leaders in the league. Hartline is far and away quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s go to receiver, but the crafty possession receiver has yet to find the end zone in his last four starts. Hartline is coming off a nice 100-yard receiving effort last week (his third of the season) and his 12 targets last Sunday tied for his second most this season. He’s matchup against the leagues number 26th ranked pass defense (Titans) this week that has also allowed 20 touchdowns; expect a lot more targets once again and a visit to pay dirt.
For help in deeper leagues; possible sleepers.…
Running back Bernard Pierce;
The Ravens play host the Raiders this Sunday, who last week were torched by the Buccaneers Doug Martin for over 250 yards on the ground. With a premiere back like Ray Rice, the Ravens can be expected to pound the Raiders mercilessly. It can be expected and is likely that the Ravens will also use back up runner Bernard Pierce to pound the Raiders into submission. The Raiders allow better than 4.5 per carry and could have a tough time keeping this one close. The Bucs ran it nearly 30 times last Sunday against the Raiders and we could very well see the Ravens do the same. Pierce is likely to see some extended duty late in the game this week, when it’s time to put this one to bed. The Raiders have also allowed 10 rushing touchdowns this season, so it would not surprise to see Pierce get a cheap one late.
By David Ortega
Friday Editions
November 9th, 2012
FSH Fantasy Five
Week 10 Fantasy Picks (all positions)
This week’s picks digs a little deeper for some fantasy players that can offer help to those owners affected by the Byes this Sunday. There are certainly no-brainers and must plays up and down the boards this week, but if your lineup is lacking a few of those options these are some players worth consideration in week 10.
Week 10 fantasy help;
Jonathan Dwyer, RB
The Steelers running back Jonathan Dwyer returned to a full practice on Friday and looks set to return to action on Monday night. Dwyer would seem to be the favorite to start coming off his two 100-yard game performances, but even if he ends up just splitting expect him to be very effective against the Chiefs 23rd ranked run defense. The Chiefs also allow the 6th most fantasy points to running backs.
Kenny Britt, WR
The Titans big receiver Kenny Britt has been getting healthier each week and after completing a couple of days of full participation in practice he looks ready for Sunday. Britt has been mostly quiet this season and a non-factor, but facing the Dolphins 30th ranked pass defense this Sunday could be his coming out party. The Dolphins surrender the 4th most fantasy points to receivers this season and it looks like Britt will have quarterback Jake Locker under center this week; could the stars be aligning?
Jacquizz Rodgers, RB
It seems anytime you face the Saints defense, your skill players have an opportunity to play big. When the Falcons meet the Saints on Sunday running back Jacquizz Rodgers will have a chance to test that theory. The Saints defense ranks dead last in the league and allow the most fantasy points to running backs. Rodgers has gradually become more a part of the offense this season and could see plenty of extra work on Sunday; the more work, the bigger the points.
Greg Olsen, TE
The Broncos defense simply struggles with opposing tight ends. Last week the Bengals tight end Jermaine Gresham post season highs in catches (6) and yards receiving (108) against the Broncos defense. This week the Panthers tight end Greg Olsen will get his shot at the Denver defense. Olsen is second on the team with 53 targets this season, but has yet to post a 100-yard receiving game. The Broncos defense allows the 4th most points to tight ends, so Olsen chances of a big game look good.
Danario Alexander, WR
The Chargers newest addition to their passing attack is wide receiver Danario Alexander. The former Ram receiver made his debut last week and wasted little time getting involved recording three catches for 61 yards. Alexander is already on a few radars this week with the team planning on getting him more involved. And with the Bucs next up on the schedule Alexander looks poised to make some noise. The big 6’5” receiver will face the Bucs secondary that has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to wide receiver and he should have lots of success.
By David Ortega
Thursday Edition
November 8th, 2012
Thursdays Take
Notes
Tonight’s quick takes include quite a few names for a matchup lacking marquee appeal. Starting with the obvious wide receiver Reggie Wayne leads the league in targets this season with 101. You can bet he’s going to be on the radar throughout the evening and should be very productive against the Jaguars 24th ranked pass defense.
Throwing passes all night to Wayne will be rookie quarterback Andrew Luck. He’s a gamer and it will be tough to pass on starting him tonight unless you are carrying one of the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks. The Jaguars defense allows the 17th most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, but last week the Lions Matthew Stafford torched them for over 300 yards without a touchdown pass (although there were many chances). Luck should see many opportunities, but expect him to capitalize.
On the other side, the Jaguars offense will be facing a Colts defense that has struggled to shut down folks. Running back Rashad Jennings is going to see a heavy load and facing a Colts defense that allows the 6th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, he’s going to play well. Jennings is only a flex option in most leagues, but could be considered a low end RB2 in much deeper leagues.
The one to watch this evening is going to be the Colts number two receiver Donnie Avery. The speedy wide out has shown flashes this season and last week was starting to come on with a big effort before injury shut him down. Avery finishes last week with 5 grabs for 108 yards. Tonight against the Jaguars, who will also have to worry about Wayne and wide receiver T.Y. Hilton, Avery could be poised for a big evening. Expect Luck to take a few shots and Avery to cash at least one in. I am really high on this guy and believe a big game is coming; could it be tonight?
By David Ortega
Wednesday Edition
November 7th, 2012
Watercooler Chat
“Just Talking Fantasy”
Week 10 Waiver Wire Wonders
We are 9 weeks in and for the most part fantasy owners have seen about all there is to see from all teams and all fantasy players. For those owners still looking for aid and relief, if you keep looking hard, you can still find a few late bloomers and hidden gems.
With week 10 set to begin on Thursday, here are few last minute waiver wire warriors that can offer some help this Sunday…
The Steelers boast a couple of speedy and talented receivers in Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown, but with Brown down for the moment, fantasy owners can turn to Emmanuel Sanders. The Steelers number three wide out is very capable of stepping into the starting lineup and producing right away. Sanders is athletic, quick and has great hands; snatch him up fast.
Another relief player that can be pulled off many waiver wires this week is the Falcons running back Jacquizz Rodgers. The Falcons backup has not had much of an expanded role, but gradually over the past couple of weeks he has seen his role and touches increase. Rodgers does not offer a lot of value, but with the Saints up next even with few touches he has a chance of making some big plays. Fantasy owners hurting at the running back position may be able to find some help from the Dirty Bird.
A third glimmer of hope for owners this week needing help could come in the form of Chargers wide receiver Danario Alexander. The newly acquired receiver was an immediate contributor last week in the team’s week 9 win over the Chiefs. Alexander hauled in three passes for 61 yards, not a lot to get excited about, but an indicator that he can contribute right away. This week he has a great matchup against the Buccaneers (ranked last in the league against the pass) and should see plenty of opportunities to pay off in your lineup on Sunday.
By David Ortega
