FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 6th, 2017

Sunday Night Edition

Early Round Draft Strategy

As is it does every year, draft strategy changes and this season fantasy owners will need to be as savvy as ever. Not only do we (as I am a fantasy owner as well) need to be savvy, but our strategy will need to be ever evolving throughout our pending drafts. One thing we all learn in fantasy drafts, someone is always going to reach and someone is always start the early run.

This season I will be playing in several money leagues once again and will likely engage in several NFL public leagues to keep my skills sharp as a dull blade.

Looking at my first scheduled 10-team league draft this coming Saturday, this is a QB-heavy scoring league; one point per yard, so the signal callers rack up the points.

Unlike most of the other leagues I will play in this season, but similar to QB leagues, this league the top tier quarterbacks (Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees) will be premium. Because we only play one quarterback though, drafting strategies and trends will in many ways resemble what you might see in standard or common PPR (½ point or full point) draft.

In this format, if you are sitting at the top of the draft it is prudent to target one of the top skill plays like running backs David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, and Antonio Brown. Your position puts you at the bottom of the 2nd round in a traditional snake-draft, so taking a quarterback too early will leave you bottom feeding (finding less value) for your number one receiver and number one running back. This especially hurts when you are passing on an Ezekiel Elliott and/or Julio Jones.

For the league I am playing in, typically it might seem too early to grab a quarterback in the first round, but here it makes sense at the tail-end of the 1st. Arms like Brady and Rodgers looked poised for big seasons, and Brees is Mr. 5000 yards, so from the 8th spot on you can still come back with a top 8 receiver or running back at the top of the 2nd round.

There is going to be depth at the skill positions which may lean some of us into taking Brady and/or Rodgers in the late first or early second. Players you could be looking at in the 3rd and 4th rounds (in 10-team leagues) are looking like Lamar Miller, Brandin Cooks, Amari Cooper, Carlos Hyde, Alshon Jeffrey, and DeAndre Hopkins.

If you pass on a quarterback early, based on current ADP you should be fine waiting until the 5th or 6th to target the next tier of arms (i.e. Matt Ryan, Derek Carr, and Russell Wilson). Quarterbacks like Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton, and Kirk Cousins are going even later.

Unless you are targeting tight end Rob Gronkowski early, there will be value available beyond the early rounds, so fill your backfield early and get your wideouts on the field.

We’re just getting the conversation started with drafts opening up all over and these are just a few of my thoughts of early draft strategy. As the days pass and as drafts are completed I will be sharing more thoughts on strategy and players I like and where I will be taking them.

That’s my take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 5th, 2017

Early Saturday Morning Edition

Saturday Fantasy Notes

Talking Fantasy Draft

We’ve officially reached the new season with the Hall of Fame game concluded; the 2017 season is underway and it’s time to start talking fantasy football.

The Consensus Pick-Six (Average ADP)

After reviewing several ADP sites and participating in many, many mock-drafts, unequivocally the consensus top six draft picks have been running backs David Johnson (20 touchdowns in 2016), Le’Veon Bell (1,884 total yards in 12 games), Ezekiel Elliott (1,631 yards rushing last season), and wide receivers Antonio Brown (106 receptions in 2016), Julio Jones (1,409 yards receiving in 14 games), and Odell Beckham Jr (10 touchdowns last season). My official position, I’m not advocating when to take these players or in this particular order, but I do agree with their value and could argue for taking them where they are currently falling. The interesting pick is sitting in the 5th or 6th spot, is there someone else that you might value before this group of six; of course league format and scoring come into play when considering.

“Living on the Edge”

If you are following the trend in the current mock-drafts going on and watercooler conversations taking place, these are the names that are being discussed; running backs LeSean McCoy (14 touchdowns last season), Melvin Gordon (1,416 total yards in 13 games in 2016), and wide receivers AJ Green (averaged 10 targets per game last season) and Mike Evans (12 touchdowns in 2016). There’s great value here in this group and nothing wrong with taking any earlier than the six pick. Anywhere beyond the sixth slot and these guys are good to go.

These are the early numbers for current fantasy league drafts that I am seeing and hearing, where the trends change and where you’ll have to savvy this season will start in the second round where there’s a log jam of interchangeable options fantasy owners are going to have to weigh and consider.

“A Call to Arms”

Quarterbacks will be deep this season, so there’s no rush to grab one too early, but if you are in the market the gold standards in fantasy are still Aaron Rodgers (40 passing touchdowns in 2016), Drew Brees (5,000 passing yards for the 5th time in his career), and 5-time Superbowl Champion Tom Brady (28 passing touchdowns in 12 games). Beyond the Big Three, there will be plenty of fish left in the market as you make your way into the third and fourth round.

If you are targeting a 2nd tier arm for fantasy, you should be safe sitting on this pick for a few rounds further, there should still be good value here. Quarterbacks like Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, and Derek Carr are not coming off the board until the 4th and 5th round (depending on the size of your league) and many as late as the 8th and 9th; so plan your draft accordingly.

Your Fantasy Draft is coming, are you ready for some (Fantasy) Football?

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 1st, 2017

Tuesday Late Night Edition

Football is Back Baby!

It’s that time of year once again, it’s August 1st. Football is back and of course that can only mean one thing for the fanatical football fan and fantasy enthusiast.

Fantasy Football has returned and with it all of the compelling drama, excitement, and heartbreak the fantasy football community have come to love, enjoy, and despise. If we’ve learned anything from seasons past, we are all gluttons for this annual and season long punishment.

And this year promises to be no different than those of our hallowed and horrific past with so many new storylines; new faces in old places, old faces in new places, the rookie bandwagon,and training camps finally open everywhere.

For some of you the drafting early, it can’t come soon enough, but for others that will draft later this month, grab your pencil and pad and start taking notes, there’s plenty to follow this summer; Fantasy story #1-Brandin Cooks lands in New England, Fantasy story#2-Andrew Luck opens camp on the PUP, Fantasy story#3-Kyle Shanahan goes to San Francisco and WR Pierre Garcon follows, Fantasy story#4-Does an injury in Baltimore shake up the backfield?, and Fantasy story#5-Is there room in New Orleans for Adrian Peterson and Mark Ingram?

Of course these are just a few of the current stories and with a whole camp in front of us and the preseason still to be played, we’ll have plenty of time to touch all of these stories and the many new ones just waiting to surface.

As we take a quick look ahead to our pending drafts and review many of the available ADPs that are circulating and available online, the one trending consensus seems to be the new “Ridiculous Six” for 2017; (RB) David Johnson, (RB) Le’Veon Bell, (WR) Antonio Brown, (WR) Julio Jones, (WR) Odell Beckham Jr, and (RB) Ezekiel Elliott.

So as we say every year, with so many changes in the off-season, so many players, so many choices, decisions, decisions, who are you taking first?

Who’s ready to play!?!?

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBBOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

January 27th, 2017
Friday Night Late Edition

Friday Fantasy Fixx

There are no games this weekend, but that doesn’t mean we can’t talk some fantasy football on a Friday night and look ahead to the Super Bowl.

This is not the match up I was expecting, although I am not surprised; both teams are well deserving. I think last week, quarterbacks Matt Ryan and Tom Brady just rose above and out-played the competition to get here.

Now there are no games this weekend to discuss, so I won’t give opinion on plays or matchup just yet. The good news for us football fans, heading into next weekend, both teams should be as healthy as they have ever been this season; a lot of fantasy play options available.

Without going into too much detail, my overall impression of this matchup is going to be one high scoring affair. I’m not aware of the current over/under, but I would confidently put it at 61.5 points. There’s no way both teams are not scoring at least 4 touchdowns each, if not more.

I will give credit to both defenses, they are stock with good players and they will make plays, but both offenses are just loaded with too many playmakers and too many big plays.

The last time I saw a matchup of similar proportion was the Super Bowl 13-Steelers and Cowboys. Both teams were loaded with talent, playmakers, and greatness. I’m pretty sure we have that covered in this one with names like Tom Terrific, Matty Ice, Julio, and 7-11.

If you watch this one, and if you enjoy fantasy this is one you will not want to miss, my boldest prediction is; points, points, and more points.

Good luck to the Falcons and Patriots and can’t wait until next Sunday!

That’s my Take

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

January 22nd, 2017
Sunday Morning Edition

Sunday DFS

Another Sunday, another chance to play some fantasy football. It’s been a long week, but the waiting is over and today is Championship Sunday. After last weekend’s classics, I can’t wait to tune in to watch both games today. And like last week, I will be playing some DFS.

And like last week, my anchor play today is going to be Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers ($9,600 DSF salary). He is carrying a hefty salary, but in these epic matchups today I have a feeling and believe Rodgers is going to continue his hot playoff run. Last week A-rod threw for a ton, but only found the end-zone twice; today will be different. In a shoot-out with the NFC’s number two seed, Atlanta Falcons, Rodgers is going to have to elevate his play once again to carry the Pack. With 40-plus passes today, Rodgers throws for 325+ yards and three touchdowns.

My second anchor is going to be Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell (9,500 DSF salary) There’s no question Bell is going to be heavily involved in the running game and even if the Patriots have some success slowing down the Steelers ball carrier, he’s one of the teams best pass receivers. I expect another heavy workload, but unlike last week Bell will find the end-zone.

And with this being Championship weekend and so much at stake, I am going to load up with Packers; wide receiver Randall Cobb ($6,500 DFS salary) and tight end Jared Cook ($6,400 DFS salary). 

Last week Cobb was relatively quiet not finding the end-zone, but he did grab 7 balls on 8 targets. If he sees as much work today as he did a week ago, you can expect much better numbers and likely a score.

To the contrary, Cook was much more productive catching 6 passes (on 11 targets) for 103 yards and a touchdown. These are big numbers to replicate, but it’s highly likely he’ll have every opportunity today against the Falcons defense that allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

With so much salary invested in the Packers offense, one play that I am leaning with and believe may come up big today is the Steelers wide receiver Eli Rogers ($4,900 DFS salary). Last week he did not breakout, but he did see 7 targets; a good sign he’ll be involved today. As well as the Patriots have been on defense this season, they did allow the 10th most 20+ yards completions to opposing teams.

That’s My Take.

~David G. Ortega