FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

December 31st 2016
Saturday Evening Edition

Sunday’s Value Plays

Taking a look at the slate for Sunday, if you pay attention there is some low cost, potential high-reward value available. A couple of plays that I like are hit or miss, but if they hit their low salaries allow owners to find play this week with some of the heavy (higher salary) hitters.

The Cardinals wide receiver J.J. Nelson is listed at a $5,300 this week and with 18 targets over the past two weeks, he offers week 17 appeal. Nelson has also scored in four straight games and posting double digit fantasy points in each. He’s a homerun or bust and his value gives owners lots of room to play with.

Another the potential homerun hitter at a great value is Panthers wide receiver Ted Ginn Jr (listed at $4,900 salary this week). Always the big-play possibility Ginn Jr has been hit and miss this season with double-digit fantasy points in four of his past six contests. Ginn Jr is coming off a modest three catch-29 yard performance last week, but has a matchup this Sunday against a Buccaneers defense that has allowed the 6th most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers over the past four weeks.

Another Sunday play offering value for fantasy owners is Broncos running back DeVontae Booker (listed at $5,300 salary). Booker could be viewed as a bit of a reach this week, seeing that he has only reached double-digit fantasy points twice in his last 7 games, with his last one coming four weeks ago. The good news is the latest rumor is Booker is expected to see the lionshare of the load on Sunday. In a limited stint last week versus the Chiefs, Booker flashed some promise and facing a Raiders defense that has allowed the 10th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including the 7th most rushing yards, his Sunday outlook could be promising.

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

December 31st 2016
Saturday Afternoon Edition

Last Chance to Play in 16

This being the final weekend of the NFL regular season and with most season long redraft leagues having concluded last weekend, this is the final chance to play fantasy football in 2016.

With season long leagues over, what’s left? If your league is complete, don’t forget DFS has weekly games, so there’s still plenty of fantasy left. And don’t forget, the NFL Playoff Challenge, just more fantasy fun.

For some Week 17 fantasy magic where do owners look? Well let’s start with the matchups that will offer fantasy appeal; Giant-Redskins, Saints-Falcons, and Packers-Lions all have much at stake, so starters will be playing til the end in these contests. A couple of other interesting matchups that warrant some appeal; Patriots-Dolphins and Broncos-Raiders.

These matchups have the appeal of knowing your starters will play and when looking them over, the standouts start with the quarterbacks. This week DFS players have to love the Packers Aaron Rodgers ($8,800 salary), since week 6 in his last 10 starts he is averaging 25.31, scoring no fewer than 21.24 fantasy points in 8 of those 10. In his week 3 matchup this season versus the Lions, Rodgers tossed 4 touchdowns and could be looking at a repeat play this Sunday.

In the backfield, there are two ball carriers that DFS owner should love, the Cardinals “Mr. Everything” running back David Johnson ($9,300 salary), and the Bills LeSean McCoy ($9,100). 

Johnson simply does everything and over his past seven starts he’s tallied better than 24 fantasy points in six of those contests. Johnson sees a steady diet of carries as well as targets making him a fantasy workhorse and solid week 17 bet.

Shady (McCoy) is another running back that has been sizzling of late. In has past five games, Shady has topped 19 fantasy points totaling more than 100 yards (rushing & receivng) in each while registering 6 touchdowns, McCoy could be a lock for another big Sunday.

With a lot of stock going to the backfield, owners will have to go frugal out wide, fortunately there are options available. With Rodgers in play, wide receiver Jordy Nelson ($8,200 salary) has to be a heavy favorite to double-down. Nelson has looked great over the past four weeks scoring no fewer than 15 fantasy points while registering 30 receptions and five touchdowns.

My risky plays for Sunday would include the Lions wide receivers Golden Tate and the Dolphins Kenny Stills. Both plays should see plenty of opportunities on Sunday; Tate is averaging 10 targets per game in his last four starts and Stills is averaging better than six targets in his last six games, including 8 targets last week. There’s some risk with these two, but plenty of upside to score as well.

The Saints tight end Coby Fleener has my eye this week with a nice matchup against a Falcons defense that has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends over the past four weeks. Fleener turned in one of his best performances this season back in his first matchup in week 3 against the Falcons. I like his chances on Sunday.

This is the makeup for one of my DFS week 17 lineups.

That’s My Take

~David G. Orrtega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

December 24th 2016
Saturday morning Edition

DFS Week 16 Core 4

For those of us that can’t get enough fantasy football playing in season long leagues, luckily we have DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports). If you’re as enthusiastic as I, you love DFS as much as the season long redraft leagues and these days we have plenty of options to play.

My choice this week is Fan Duel, a personal favorite; lots of games, big contests, with big prizes. Playing in the weekly game is no easy task, there may be a science to it, but even Newton would be challenged to figure it out. Sometimes playing is like throwing darts in the dark.

If you are game to play in any of the weekly contests, you must know navigating through matchups, tendencies, and injuries is hard enough, but be restricted by a salary cap and well, the challenge is set.

This week I am building my lineups around a core of four players, my “Fantastic Four” if you will; QB-Cam Newton, RB-Jordan Howard, WR-DeAndre Hopkins, and TE-Greg Olsen.

Cam has been off this year, by his MVP standards from last season, but he is still Cam and last week he may have found his groove again. The Panthers quarterback may have only completed 56% of his passes, but he passed for 300 yards and two scores. This week he draws the Falcons, worst defense versus opposing quarterbacks; 28 touchdowns allowed (2nd most), 282 yards passing allowed per game (2nd worst). This is a great matchup at home for Cam and his $7,900 salary is more than inviting.

Teaming up with Cam to double-down is Panthers tight end Greg Olsen. He is one of Cam’s favorite targets and over the past 7 games Olsen has been targeted no fewer than 7 times in all but one game, and that came back in week 12 when he was targeted just five times. Olsen has a great matchup this week against a Falcon defense that allows the 4th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Back in week 4 Olsen turned in a stat line of 6 receptions for 76 yards and a score. Fantasy owners can expect similar numbers today for the tight end that is priced at only $6,800.

In the backfield, my third anchor of this marvel fantasy team is Bears running back Jordan Howard. The rookie runner has been one of the bright spots of the Bears offense this season already topping the 1,000 yard rushing mark. This week he faces a defense (Redskins) that has been one of the worst against the run over the past four weeks. In that span the Redskins have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Howard has been solid the past 7 games topping 100 yards of offense in each, adding five rushing touchdowns. Fantasy owners can expect the fantasy bargain at $7,200 Howard to see at least 20 touches today.

Lastly, my fourth anchor is Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. With new blood under center last week Hopkins saw 17 targets which he turned into 8 receptions for 87 yards. If he can see somewhere around 10 targets today, he should have little trouble matching his output last week and may even find the end zone. The Bengals have been stingy versus opposing wide receivers this season, but Hopkins did register a stat line of 5 catches for 57 yards and a score last season. At just $6,600 this week, he’s a fantasy play worth building my team around.

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

December 23rd, 2016
Friday Night Edition

Week 16 Four Horsemen

It’s championship week and no time to waiver. Fantasy owners must stick to their guns, see the journey through, and let the chips fall where they may. With that said, stud or no, savory matchup or no, these are four studs fantasy owners will be able to ride to the championship promise land.

Quarterback
Saints quarterback Drew Brees has about an average matchup this week taking on the Buccaneers at home, but when it’s home cooking advantage Brees. The Saints quarterback hit a mini slump back their throwing a total of 6 picks in back-to-back games, but he bounced back last week on the road with 4 touchdowns. In his previous 7 home games Brees has thrown 19 touchdowns and averaged 353 yards passing. He may have hit a pot hole two weeks, but this gun slinger will be blazing on Saturday. My prediction; 25 of 36 for 326 yards and three touchdowns!

Running Back
The Cardinals running back David Johnson (ranked No. 1 fantasy running back) has been nothing less than a fantasy beast this season and in his last matchup against the Seahawks (Saturday’s opponent) he was a monster. In week 7 versus Seattle, Johnson tallied 41 touches for 171 total yards. Based on sheer volume alone, fantasy owners can count on Johnson providing another week of double-digit fantasy points. My Prediction; 21 carries, 85 yards rushing, 6 receptions 46 yards receiving, one touchdown.

Wide Receiver
The Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton was quiet last week against the Vikings, but in the previous two weeks he was coming on strong with back-to-back 9 reception and 100 yard-plus performances. Over the last three weeks Hilton is averaging 10 targets per game. The Raiders are average versus wide receivers and have allowed the 12th most receiving yards this season. Hilton is healthy and a playmaker. With the Colts in a heated race for the division, fantasy owners can expect Hilton to be very much in the mix on Saturday. My prediction; 6 reception (8 targets), 105 yards receiving, and a touchdown.

Tight End
An unlikely fantasy scoring source that could surprise this week is Vikings tight end Kyle Rudolph. In his last four games Rudolph is averaging 10 targets per game turning them into 27 receptions for 266 yards and a touchdown. In his last matchup against the Packers (this weekend’s opponent) Rudolph did find the end zone. Fantasy owners can count on Rudolph seeng plenty of opportunities this week against a defense that has allowed the 7th most receiving yards to opposing tight ends. My prediction; 5 receptions (on 8 targets) for 65 yards and a touchdown.

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

December 21st, 2016 Wednesday Late Evening Edition The Fantasy Football Family Tree It’s championship week and if you don’t have all your ducks in a row and your lineup set for Sunday, then like many of us you are looking for every opportunity and advantage. There’s no room for error when everything in the fantasy world is at stake. This week is no different than any other, but fantasy owners need to pay attention to the family lineage that exists on each. And what I mean is the fantasy family tree grows short from player to player. The Packers are in the middle of a division fight and everyone knows that quarterback Aaron Rodgers will be up to the task, as will his fantasy family. Last week tight end Jared Cook (ranked No. 40 fantasy TE) saw 8 targets and turned them into 6 receptions for 85 yards and with the Vikings up next, he could see plenty more this week. Over the past two weeks, the Vikings defense have allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. I like Cook as a low-end TE1 this week. In the same matchup the Vikings are trying to hang onto their playoff life and their fantasy family tree branches out from quarterback Sam Bradford. Without much of a running game, Bradford and the Vikings relied heavily on the short passing game; enter running back Jerrick McKinnon (ranked No. 42 fantasy RB). Last week McKinnon had only 3 carries, but caught 9 passes on 9 targets. With the prospect of no Adrian Peterson, McKinnon gets up bump in PPR leagues this week and should be considered a strong flex or mid RB3. The Steelers are battling for another division title and their hopes will rely heavily on the shoulders of their quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Part of his extended fantasy family is tight end Ladarius Green. Over the past three weeks Green has become more involved in the passing game turning 25 targets into 13 receptions for 207 yards receiving and a touchdown. With the Ravens on the slate, Green will get a shot at a defense that has allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends over the past four weeks. Green should be considered a high-end TE2 borderline TE1 this week. That’s My Take ~David G. Ortega