FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 13th 2017

Monday Evening Edition

Sunday Heroes (Week 10)

Another Sunday filled with big hits, big plays, and lots of surprises makes for good day in fantasy. Whether it’s your studs or back-ups playing big, it’s all good, but when it’s not The-Usual-Suspects, sometimes you just need luck, hope, a prayer, or one of these guys;

QB-CJ Beathard; The Niners quarterback played very well on Sunday throwing for 288 yards on 19 of 25 passing with 2 passing touchdowns and one rushing score. It was a great game for Beathard, but not one that will change the inevitable of Jimmy Garoppolo eventually becoming the starter.

QB-Case Keenum; The Vikings starter played a perfect first half on Sunday, and aside from a couple of poor passes and ugly picks, Keenum still finished with a solid line of 21 of 29 for 304 yards passing and 4 touchdowns. Despite the strong play, Keenum is not guaranteed to be the starter for too much longer.

QB-Deshone Kizer; It wasn’t a prolific performance from the rookie passer, but it was nice game on Sunday as Kizer had his best game of the season (fantasy scoring-wise). Kizer passed for 232 yards and added a passing and rushing score. He also posted a season high 57 rushing yards. It was a great sign of growth, but it’s still too soon to consider him a fantasy option in redraft leagues.

RB-Austin Ekeler; The Chargers running back got extra run on Sunday and took advantage. Ekeler rushed for 42 yards and added 5 receptions for 77 yards and two touchdowns. It was a nice game for the rookie, but not one fantasy owners can count on too often with Ekeler playing behind Melvin Gordon.

WR-Chester Rogers; The Colts 2nd year receiver had a breakout Sunday with 6 catches for 104 yards receiving and a touchdown. It was his first big game of the season and far too soon to bank on him going forward; he’s a wait and see option for now.

WR-Brandon LaFell; The Bengals wide receiver turned in his best game of the year catching 6 passes for 95 yards and a touchdown. In Cincy AJ Green is the clear-cut number one, so owners may have to wait a while for a repeat play from LaFell.

TE-Garrett Celek; Normally the Niners number 2 tight end, Garrett Celek got more run on Sunday with George Kittle inactive and he took advantage. Celek caught 4 passes for 67 yards and a score on six targets. With Kittle likely to return soon, Celek’s luster could fade.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 12th 2017

Sunday Morning Edition

Week 10 Perfect Lineup

(NFL.com)

With the games set to start in less than two hours, not a lot of time to reflect, so I’ll just give you the short version. The highlights of my week 9 picks include quarterback Drew Brees and his 18.7 fantasy points (not very Brees-like) and the Cardinals defense with 13.0 fantasy points. The low-lights include Titans running back DeMarco Murray (4.1 fantasy points) and Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas (6.5 fantasy points). All-in-all, not a good week, so let’s look at Week 10;

QB-Ben Roethlisberger; it’s time for Big Ben to breakout this season, and today’s matchup against the Colts to lend to that trend. Ben gets Martavis Bryant back and with JuJu, Antonio, and Le’Veon, he looks poised for a big passing day.

RB-Todd Gurley; the Rams running back is having a solid campaign, he’s the No.1 fantasy RB in standard and PPR. The Texans have been good against the run, but Gurley (29 receptions) also contributes in the passing game.

RB-Jordan Howard; the Bears runner has been solid this season as the league’s number five running back (662 yards rushing). He should see an avalanche of carries today and find the end zone once or twice.

WR-Julio Jones; the Falcons receiver has been relatively quiet this season, as far as Julio numbers go, today could be a breakout day against the Cowboys. He’s sure to see double digit targets and could put up monster numbers.

WR-Marvin Jones Jr; like the other Jones, this Jones could be a busy receiver today. With the Lions run game pretty much stuck in neutral, I like Jones to continue his upward trending with more targets and big plays today.

TE-Evan Engram; the Giants will be on the road, but against the Niners today may not make much difference. A poor Niners run defense could land the Giants in the red zone a number of times today, setting up some favorable chances for Engram to find paydirt.

PK-Ryan Succop; the Titans offense has struggled with scoring this season and with the lack of a dominant run game, I see a few drives stalling in the red-zone. Succop is the No.6 fantasy kicker having made 21 of 23 field goals this season.

D/ST-Bears; the Bears defense will be facing a backup quarterback with a home game, what’s not to like. Add the fact that the Bears defense has been playing very well of late, this is a tasty matchup.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 12th 2017

Sunday Morning Edition

Who Are You Starting & Sitting

A lot of games on the slate today for Sunday Week 10 and with fantasy playoffs fast approaching it begs the obvious question, who are you starting and sitting today?

GB @ CHI

The Bears have a pretty good defense, so I am not expecting much from the Packers offense. I am sitting Ty Montgomery today. With Aaron Jones having earned the starting backfield duties, Montgomery will be limited. Since returning from injury Montgomery is averaging just 7.3 touches per game.

CLE @ DET

The Browns do a pretty good job against the run and the Lions don’t run the ball well, so I am starting Marvin Jones Jr. The Lions will once again have to rely on Stafford and the pass and Jones (No.15 fantasy WR in PPR) has been trending upward for weeks now.

PIT @ IND

With Martavis Bryant back and the emergence of JuJu Smith-Schuster, I am starting Big Ben today. He’ll be a JuJu-Bee special today against the Colts!

LAC @ JAX

The Jags are tough against the pass and while I might not be sitting Keenan Allen today (but not expecting a lot), I am starting running back Melvin Gordon. Gordon is the No.5 fantasy RB in PPR and the Jags yield a lot of yards on the ground (125 yds/game).

NO @ BUF

The Saints have been good this season, but traditionally they do not travel well. That being the case here, they will have a tough matchup against a good Bills defense. While I’d be nervous starting any of the Saints, I am starting running back Alvin Kamara. He’ll see his usual workload today and I love his contributions in the pass game; 37 receptions this season.

NYJ @ TB

With a road game today, I am starting Jets wide receiver Robby Anderson against a terrible Bucs defense. Anderson has been trending in the right direction and the Bucs allow the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing receivers.

MIN @ WASH

With Redskins tight end Jordan Reed on the shelf for Sunday, I am starting Vernon Davis. I am not expecting a big output, but he should provide decent numbers for owners in a bind today.

CIN @ TEN

After five straight games with less than 60 rushing yards, I am sitting Titans running back DeMarco Murray. Murray has been dinged up most of the season. He doesn’t look right, he’s not producing, and right now he’s too risky to trust.

HOU @ LAR

With the Rams rolling and the offense playing well this season, I am starting quarterback Jared Goff. The 2nd year passer has played very well this season and I love this matchup against the Texans at home. Over the past two weeks, the Texans secondary has been toasted for 760 yards passing and 6 touchdowns.

DAL @ ATL

This game is being forecasted as a potential shootout and along with Julio Jones, I will be starting Falcons wide receiver Mohamed Sanu. The Cowboys have allowed 10 touchdowns to opposing receivers and with a lot of attention focused on Julio, I think Sanu sneaks one in.

NYG @ SF

With a road matchup today with the Niners, I am starting Giants running back Orleans Darkwa against one of the league’s worst run defenses (allow 135.6 yards/game). I expect to see Darkwa receive a heavy workload and have success today.

NE @ DEN

The Broncos offense has struggled mightily for several weeks now, but tonight against the Patriots I am starting wide receiver Demaryius Thomas. The Broncos receiver is coming off a 8/70/1 stat line; he’ll the main focal point of the pass game against secondary that has allowed the 5th most receptions and 3rd most receiving yards to opposing receivers.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 11th 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

My Week 10 Injury Takes

RB-Jeremy Hill (ankle); The Bengals placed Hill on the Injured Reserve ending his season. For fantasy owners, this changes little. Rookie running back Joe Mixon has been the lead backs for weeks, but will now also pick up short yardage and goal-line duties increasing his long term fantasy value.

WR-Will Fuller (knee); the Texans wide receiver is not listed on the team’s injury report. Fuller will be a go for Sunday, but faces a tough matchup against a stingy Rams defense allowing the 5th fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers. With Watson out and Savage in, Fuller’s shine has dimmed significantly; he’s a borderline WR3/4 this week.

TE-Delanie Walker (ankle); the Titan’s tight is listed as questionable and could be a huge risky play this week for owners. Walker played through the injury last week and even though he’ll be at less than 100 percent (if he goes), he’s still in line to see a healthy dose of snaps. Walker remains a TE1 this week.

WR-Julio Jones (ankle); the Falcons wide receiver is not listed on the team’s injury report. Jones will be all-systems-go on Sunday and a must-start against a Cowboys defense that has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing receivers.

WR-Dez Bryant (ankle); the Cowboys playmaking receiver is listed as questionable for Sunday, but looks like he’ll be out there on Sunday. The Falcons have been pretty good against opposing receivers, but with the Cowboys minus Zeke, Sunday could become more of the Dez and Dak show.

WR-Chris Hogan (shoulder); the Patriots wide receiver has been ruled out for Sunday’s matchup with the Bronco’s No Fly Zone defense. With Hogan out, this should open more opportunities for both Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola.

RB-Matt Forte (knee); the Jets running back has been ruled out for Sunday. With Forte sidelined, Bilal Powell a borderline RB1 this week should handle lead duties, but Elijah McGuire will also figure in the mix as a low-end flex and DFS flier.

WR-Michael Thomas (ankle); the Saints receiver is not listed on team’s injury report. Thomas has been steady this season, but not spectacular. The Saints are away this week at Buffalo, with Thomas being a low-end WR2 against a Bills secondary that allows the 7th fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers.

WR-TY Hilton (groin); the Colts wide receiver is listed as questionable for Sunday against the Steelers. While Hilton is expected to play, he’ll be a huge risk option with the potential for a setback; owners should proceed with caution.

WR-Stefon Diggs (tooth); the Vikings wide receiver was not listed on the team’s final injury report. Diggs will be on the field Sunday drawing lots of attention from the Redskins Josh Norman, which could open up some opportunities for Adam Thielen.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 11th 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

On The Cover This Week

The Year of the Goff

In just a year’s time, the Rams quarterback Jared Goff has gone from the out-house to the Penthouse. It just took the genius mind of the Rams new head coach Sean McVay to bring out the best in Goff. And what a difference a year makes.

Under the Jeff Fischer regime, the Rams were cellar dwellers with a record of 4 and 12. This season however, the Rams are currently 6-2 atop the NFC west and the play of quarterback Jared Goff has been a big part of the turnaround.

Through the halfway point of the season Goff is the No.12 fantasy quarterback, up from finishing as the No.37 in 2016. This season Goff has been more accurate with the ball, completing 147 of 244 passes for a 60.2 percentage and has been more effective averaging better than 250 yards passing per game.

The Rams offense has also been more explosive (ranked 1st in scoring this season) and effective this season, in large part to the passing success of Goff who has 13 passing touchdowns. What a difference a year makes.

After a precarious start to his NFL career just one season ago, the Rams and their fans have to be excited about the turnaround of their young signal caller. It wasn’t much of a start last season, but a great start this season has made 2017 look like the Year of the Goff!

That's My Take.

~David Ortega