October 11th, 2015
Sunday (NFL Week 5)
Week 5: Buying and Selling
Four weeks into the season should be plenty of sample size to figure a few things out for your Sunday fantasy football lineup, but that doesn't mean you should rest on your laurels.
You did a pretty good job drafting this year and after four weeks you're sitting in a pretty good spot, so now's the time to use your fantasy savvy to make a few tweaks and improve your championship run.
Through the first four weeks we've seen enough to know when it's time to let someone go and move on and when it's time to find value.
These are my week 5 buys and sells;
I am buying into Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton, 1,187 yards passing and 9 touchdowns are enough for me to believe he's a reliable play week-in and week-out. Not only is the Red Rifle producing on the offensive side, but he's only thrown one interception in 116 attempts this season. Today may be a stiff test at home against the Seahawks, but I still believe Dalton finishes as a QB1 today.
I am also buying into running back Dion Lewis of the Patriots. Remember a running back by the name of Shane Vereen. Lewis has inherited that role as the teams lead back in the passing game and averaging 10 carries per game through the teams first three games is a great indicator he's a safe weekly play. He's also dominating the backfield with 154 offensive snaps this season, putting him on the field two-thirds of the time. Today's matchup against the Cowboys defense that allow the third most fantasy points to opposing running backs should be a great opportunity for Lewis to produce; the Cowboys have also surrendered the (tied for) third-most receptions to opposing backs.
A couple of names that I am selling after four weeks; Bears wide reciever Alshon Jeffery (questionable today and not expected to play) and and Broncos running back CJ Anderson (just not producing).
You probably used a high pick to select Jeffery, so you don't want to give him away, but it's time to move on. Jeffery was a disappointment last season and without a top receiving threat opposite him (when he returns) you are probably not going to get back what you invested; it's time to move-on and get what you can.
Anderson is a little different. Again owners probably bought high on him and again, you need to get some return. Right now back-up running back Ronnie Hillman clearly looks like the better back and better fit for the Broncos offense. Anderson is not going to reside on the bench, he's still figure in the mix, but how long can you hang on with performances of 29, 27, 18, and 43 yards rushing? He is still relevant, so you should be able to get some return on him, but move him now before his value bottoms out.
Some plays I will be leaning on this week, start;
Justin Forsett vs the Browns D
Alfred Morris vs the Falcons D
Kendall Wright vs the Bills D
Jordan Matthew vs the Saints D
And yes I am playing Anthony Dixon versus the Titans with no Karlos Williams or LeSean McCoy.
Just my take for week 5.
~David G
October 3rd, 2015
Saturday
Week 4: Sunday's Fantasy Faves
After watching that scintillating performance on Monday night by the Packers quarterback, Aaron Rodgers how can you not like the Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton at home this week against the Chiefs secondary. Now we must temper our expectations a bit, since Andy is no Aaron, but with a full compliment of weapons and as well as the Red Rifle has been tossing the pigskin this season (8 passing touchdowns, 866 yards passing); he's a Sunday favorite.
This Sunday will be a good road test for the Raiders young quarterback Derek Carr, although some may not consider the Bears secondary (ranked 5th most points allowed versus opposing QB) a huge test. Anytime you have to travel across the country back east and play an early game, on the road, in front of a hostile crowd, in the windy city, you will be tested. Fortunately for the 2nd year QB, he'll be bringing some nice weapons with him. With 5 passing touchdowns and 726 yards passing Carr is among the league leaders and facing the Bears who have allowed 8 passing touchdowns (2nd most) this season he's looking to enrich his stats for 2015. Carr is definitely a Sunday favorite.
Looking at some of the backfields on Sunday, I am enamored with running back Karlos Williams of the Bills. He's been a beast for fantasy owners scoring on all three Sundays thus far and tomorrow could be four against the Giants run defense (ranked 10th most fantasy points allowed versus RB). With starter LeSean McCoy sidelined (ruled OUT for Sunday), Williams should see plenty of work. The Giants have been decent agains the run, but Williams with 186 yards rushing this season is averaging more than 7 yards per carry and has three rushing touchdowns; he's my Sunday favorite.
A second ball carrier I like is the Super Charger running back Melvin Gordon. The kid runs hard and does not shy away from contact. He will get a crack at the Browns run defense that allows the third most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Gordon has yet to really get the ground game going in San Diego averaging just over 63 yards per game and 4.3 yards per tote, but the Browns are giving up more than 150 yards per game (and better than 5 yards a carry). Gordon has yet to crack the end zone this season, but all could change tomorrow. He's another Sunday favorite.
A couple of other names I like tomorrow because of the matchup and trends; the Packers rookie receiver Ty Montgomery could get plenty of looks tomorrow against a shaky Niners secondary with wideout Davante Adams out. The Bills young quarterback Tyrod Taylor has been strong through three weeks and will face the leagues secondary that has allowed the most passing yards. Let's not forget Carr's newest favorite target and Raiders rookie, wide receiver Amari Cooper; the kid has been on fire with 15 receptions and 243 receiving yards with a score the past two weeks. And one more for the road, how about the Bengals wide receiver Marvin Jones. Quietly Jones has grabbed 7 passes for 142 yards and two scores the past two Sundays and tomorrow he gets the Chiefs secondary (9 touchdowns allowed to opposing receivers).
These are some of my favorites.
That's my take.
~David G
September 27th, 2015
Sunday morning
Week 3 Fantasy picks
When is comes to fantasy football, there is no crystal ball to check or scientific formula to follow, although some of us may disagree. But what there is that you can count on weekly are your own eyes and football instinct. Neither of these may be enough for you to win, but they are sure a lot of fun to work with.
Having both of those tools at my disposal, I give you week 3 favorites for Sunday. Now mind you, these are not the regular fantasy studs you drafted in the early rounds (the no-brainer starts), here I am trying to dig a little deeper to find the diamonds in the rough, those low cost value plays needed for success on the highly popular DFS sites.
In the backfield, I am rolling out Raiders running back Latavius Murray (36 touches in two games). Murray should see plenty of work today against a Browns defense allowing the 5th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including better than 5 yards a pop on the ground. And for a little sexy PPR appeal, Murray has snagged 10 targets for 10 receptions thus far this season.
Out wide I am looking at the Seahawks wide receiver Doug Baldwin. Every Sunday Baldwin is heavily involved in the pass and at a low salary, he's a low risk play on DFS sites. In two games this season Baldwin has seen 17 targets, snagging 14. Now his production is not what we'd like to see with this much activity, but today I like his chances of doing more against a Bears secondary that has already allowed 7 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers.
Under center, I have a couple of quarterbacks I will be leaning on; Ryan Tannehill and Tyrod Taylor. Tannehill is a safe play this week and has a good matchup at home against the Bills secondary that ranks 3rd highest in allowing fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Taylor faces a tough road test against the Dolphins today, but he's been exceptional (from a fantasy perspective) in his two starts this season and ranks 6th among quarterbacks (standard scoring). His five total touchdowns this season rank tied for third among quarterbacks; he should be good for one in the air and one on the ground today.
Lastly, the quarterbacks safety blanket (tight end) that I am eye-balling on DFS sites today is Greg Olsen. A likely start for most owners that drafted him and today one that should pay off. After a slow start in week one (3 targets, one catch), Olsen turned things around a bit in week 2 catching 6 of 14 passes thrown his direction.He's still without a score this season, but facing a depleted Saints defense that ranks 13th worst versus opposing tight ends he should see plenty of action again this week and could finally find paydirt. In his last meeting against the Saints back in 2014, Olsen hauled ins 10 of 11 passes for 72 yards and a score; could we see a similar performance today? Time to check those crystal balls.
That's my take for Sunday, week 3.
~David G
September 26th, 2015
Saturday
Fantasy Football Rule Number...
When in doubt, Thursday's Out.
No, this is not my rule, but it happens to be one that I am strongly endorsing. It's always a tough start in any fantasy format playing on a short week, so unless you are starting those typical fantasy studs that are locked into your weekly lineup, you are safer staying away from those Thursday night matchups.
First of all, no one wants to go into the weekend with a couple of fantasy duds already locked into your lineup. It's just too much time to languish in the misery of second guessing and wishful thinking.
Where's the evidence? I don't know if there are any hard numbers to support the coined phrase, but just looking at this past Thursday's matchup is enough to convince me.
Even an elite receiver like the Giants Odell Beckham Jr provided little to excite the average fantasy owner. Now he did have a nice night with 7 receptions for 79 yards and a score, but considering where he was drafted and his current salary on the DFS sites, that bar is a little too low.
The Redskins tight end Jordan Reed also turned in a nice effort with 6 catches for 96 yards, but the lack of a score hurts those owners in leagues where touchdowns are heavy (especially the DFS sites). And if you were like me believing the hype around the Redskins rookie running back Matt Jones, his 38 yards rushing with a fumble and zero catches were costly in those lineups you played him in. Wide receiver Pierre Garcon, with DeSean Jackson out was a disappointing 5 catches for 64 yards and no score.
The best plays of the night were the Giants quarterback Eli Manning with 2 touchdown passes, 279 yards passing, and no turnovers, and wide recevier Rueben Randle with 7 receptions, 116 yards receivng, and a score.
When breaking it down, you had a division rivalry, so the teams are very familiar with one another. Playing on a short week it's tough to expect a traveling team to play big. You have an 0-2 Giants team, that could easily be 2-0, playing at home; you have to expect a better effort. It just reads as a risky play to count on much offensive output from the road team.
I think next time, if there's any dobut, Thursday's out.
That's my take.
~David G
September 20th 2015
Sunday
Sunday Rankings
After watching some replays of a few of the week 1 matchups (but I also watched quite a few games on Sunday), I came up with my short list of favorite plays for week 2.
These are a lists of favorite for Sunday, not in any order of ranking, just the fact I like their matchup on Sunday;
Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers (just the best in the game)
Carson Palmer (the former Trojan looks like he's got plenty left)
Drew Brees (a bounce back week for Brees at home)
Andrew Luck
Ben Roethlisberger (Niners D could force Big Ben to sling-it all day)
Sam Bradford
Matt Ryan (might not be a big passing day in yards, but 2-3 scores works)
Tom Brady
Colin Kaepernick (love his matchup agains the woeful Steelers D)
Tony Romo (could be forced to play catch-up today)
Running backs
Carlos Hyde (the kid looked strong in week 1, love his matchup today)
Adrian Peterson (he gets more than 20 touches today)
Doug Martin (should get it going today, 120-130 total yards today)
Bishop Sankey (playing the numbers, favorable matchup today)
Justin Forsett
Mark Ingram (involved in ground attack and pass game)
Darren Sproles (gets enough touches to be a strong flex)
Dion Lewis (even with Blount back, will see a lot of the field)
Marshawn Lynch (Packers D will get a huge load of Beast mode tonite)
Matt Forte (have to love his heavy workload)
Wide Receivers
Jordan Matthews (the number one in Philly)
Antonio Brown (consistency, consistency, consistency)
Keenan Allen
Brandon Coleman (can you say 7 targets in week 1, sleeper)
Odell Beckham Jr
Julio Jones (hard to keep a stud receiver out of the end-zone)
Larry Fitzgerald (a reliable target for Palmer, should find end-zone today)
Jermaine Kearse (busy week 1, could be heavily targeted in week 2)
John Brown (could follow up week 1 score with another trip today)
Pierre Garcon (this is a reach, but I like his matchup and no D-Jax)
Tight ends
Rob Gronkowski
Tyler Eifert (12 targets in week 1)
Vernon Davis
Jordan Reed (when he's healthy, he can play)
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (good matchup versus Saints today)
Heath Miller
Dwayne Allen (will have a good chance to score Monday night)
Jimmy Graham (still a top-10 play every week)
Ladarius Green (No Gates, another productive Sunday)
Martellus Bennett (will see a slew of targets today)
Now names omitted doen't mean poor performances today, only that the above names are my favorites for today.
That's my take for Week 2
~David G
