FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

July 27th, 2011 Wednesday

David’s Daily Digest

FANTASY FOOTBALL IS BACK!

Now that the NFL owners and players have ironed out their differences and ended this cumbersome lockout, it’s time to start talking fantasy football. We all knew we would end up here in the long run, but with the delay caused by the disruption there is going to be a lot of football activity over the coming weeks with NFL free agency, rookie signings, and possible trades all accelerated.

A lot has already taken place in the few short days since the end of the lockout, but there’s still plenty more that will happen. With players moving from one place to the next, it’s going to be a whole lot of fun to try and figure out what the impact will be with players like McNabb in Minnesota and Hasselbeck in Tennessee. And what about players like Tim Tebow or Tavaris Jackson, what will be there expectations as potentially new starters?

This week and weekend is expected to be a whirlwind of more activity, plenty of player moves to fuel the fantasy fire for the water-coolers on Monday. With that said I will add, it’s good to have football back and this season is already shaping up to be another great year of gridiron action.

After four months of basically inactivity, I am ready for some football!


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

March 13th, 2011 Sunday

David’s Daily Digest

2011 Fantasy Football Players

As we start looking toward the upcoming 2011 season (with fingers crossed), it’s hard to imagine any new surprises for fantasy owners at the quarterback spot. We all saw quite evident the growth and progression of Michael Vick in the pocket, the arrival of Aaron Rodgers as one of the games’ best, and the several young arms that continue to make strides with their progression.

2011 should present a host of options for owners to choose from at the quarterback spot. A couple of names that come to mind that could offer plenty of return investment on their draft selection include quarterback Matt Ryan and Ryan Fitzpatrick.

After solid fantasy showings in 2010 Ryan and Fitzpatrick are two less-than-marquee names that could surprise folks with strong follow-up performances in 2011…..

Fantasy Quarterback…..

Matt Ryan (Falcons)

The Falcons young quarterback Matt Ryan has continually improved since his arrival into the league in 2008 and for fantasy owners his progression has been a huge reward. Ryan finished the 2010 season with over 3,700 yards passing and 28 touchdowns; he was fantasy’s number eight scoring quarterback (traditional scoring).

Matty “Ice” was particularly strong at home this past season throwing 15 touchdowns and just three picks finishing with a 7-1 record. Ryan was also very consistent passing for more than 200 yards with multiple touchdowns in eight games; he also had nine total games with multiple touchdowns including four games with three touchdowns. With one of the leagues’ premiere wide receivers (Roddy White) to throw to and a talented young receiving corp Ryan should have little trouble duplicating his numbers.

After his big 2010 season, Ryan has shown the growth and maturity of a big-time clutch passer and his number eight finish in fantasy (among quarterbacks) will make him a mid-draft fantasy selection favorite. Ryan should easily be a top ten fantasy quarterback in 2011, but he’s not going to go early among the quarterbacks; the later you can grab him will offer the best value.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (Bills)

The Bills quarterback had quietly what could be considered a breakout season. Before the 2010 season Fitzpatrick had hardly made a name for himself with two seasons in St. Louis and two in Cincinnati. In 2009 he did start eight games with the Bills, but his passing numbers were less than mediocre and he finished with a 69.7 passer rating.

In 2010 Fitzpatrick enjoyed his coming out party with the Bills passing for 3,000 yards, completing nearly 58% of his passes, and tossing 23 touchdowns in just 13 games. Ryan did struggle down the stretch and toss 15 picks last season which could deter some owners, but with a full camp as the starter under his belt in 2011 he should be more that capable of ironing out the bugs.

Fitzpatrick had plenty of strong numbers in 2010 that should keep him in good company as a solid back-up fantasy quarterback in 2011. He’ll also benefit greatly with his returning cast of receivers in 2011 that will include Stevie Johnson, Roscoe Parrish, and Lee Evans (if he is not released). Fitzpatrick has started 33 games over the past three seasons, so 2011 should be make-it-or-break-it time; he’s not a fantasy starter, but could give owners some relief as an insurance back with a few spots starts and bye week replacement.

That’s how I read it for 2011 under center….

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

March 12th, 2011 Saturday

David’s Daily Digest

2011 Fantasy Football Players

With future of the 2011 season currently in limbo as the two sides decide how to split our (the fans) money, we’ll continue with prepping for the coming season which still has every possibility of starting on time. Even if this dispute drags well into the summer, there is every indication from many of the prognosticators following the situation that the 2011 season can still be salvaged with just a few games less.

On that note we continue our tour of the 2011 fantasy players looking through the class of quarterback talent that will be available in fantasy drafts this summer….

Fantasy Quarterback…..

Josh Freeman (Buccaneers)

In just his second year, the Buccaneers’ starting quarterback Josh Freeman helped lead his team to a 10-6 record, just missing the playoffs. Last season Freeman passed for nearly 3,500 yards and tossed 25 touchdowns with just six picks finishing with a passer rating of 95.9 (ranked 6th in the league). Freeman was particularly efficient and effective down the stretch in his last four starts completing nearly 73% of his passes while throwing nine touchdowns and no interceptions.

At 6’6” Freeman has the ideal size to be your traditional pocket passer, but with 364 yards rushing he has great escape-ability and athleticism to be even more dangerous out of the pocket. Following a very sub-par and non-spectacular rookie season Freeman flew well under the fantasy radar in 2010, but after his sophomore success he’s going to be on many owners draft lists this summer.

The Buccaneers are a fastly improving program and with young talent like LeGarrette Blount, Mike Williams, and Kellen Winslow Jr. surrounding their young quarterback, Freeman will only get better. He’s not reached the upper echelon of quarterbacks in the NFL just yet, but Freeman is well on his way.

Freeman is not likely to throw for a big chunk of yardage at any particular time with the Bucs being more of a balanced team that likes to run, but he’s still a close second tier level fantasy quarterback (amongst the Flaccos and Schaubs). His talent and skill level would suggest big game possibility as evident in his five touchdown performance against the Seahawks in week 16 last season, but the young gunslinger should still be considered a bit of a risky fantasy starter.

Last season Freeman had nine games in 2010 where he threw one or fewer touchdowns; in three of those games he also passed for less than 200 yards. He would probably serve much better as your number two quarterback; his accuracy offers the upside of an occasional big game (look for the matchups); he did have three games last season where he passed for more than 200 yards with multiple touchdowns.

In dynasty and keeper leagues, he’s definitely one worth stashing on the back of the grill while he seasons a bit longer (but not for too much longer).

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

March 9th, 2011 Wednesday

David’s Daily Digest

2011 Fantasy Football Players

Not a lot has changed recently with the league and player’s union talks, but we are always ever so hopeful they will find a resolution and we will have football. Always moving right along with the idea that there will be football in the fall, I begin my player-by-player look at the more notable fantasy studs that we should be near the top of all fantasy football drafts lists this summer.

Just like most NFL teams, a championship usually (but not always) starts with the quarterback and that’s exactly where we will start ….

Fantasy Quarterbacks…..

Tom Brady (Patriots)

The Patriots quarterback has been one of the most successful on the gridiron since his meteoric rise in the 2001 season. Brady has captured three Super Bowl titles (twice voted the game MVP) and twice has won the AP NFL MVP award. He is a fantasy favorite having thrown for 4,000 yards three times in his last five full seasons and 28 or more touchdowns five times in his last eight (full) seasons.

Brady is coming off another fantastic season passing for 3,900 yards and tossing 36 touchdowns without a marquee receiver. The Patriots are very young at the receiver spot with two young tight ends and a couple of youthful wide outs, but with the savvy Brady under center he is still capable of playing big. 2011 should have a similar look as last season for the Patriots offense and there’s no reason to believe that Brady can’t engineer the same type of success or better.

Brady (299 fantasy points) finished his 2010 campaign as the third highest scoring fantasy quarterback (based on traditional scoring) behind Aaron Rodgers and Michael Vick. This summer Tom Brady once again remains a top five fantasy quarterback amongst the likes of Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Philip Rivers.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE SUNDAY FANTASY REPORT

March 5th, 2011 Saturday

The Sunday Fantasy Report

The 2010 season featured quite a few players that rose to the top of fantasy stardom as well as a handful of studs that took advantage of their short stint on the main stage. And while fantasy owners will be closely dissecting the performances of 2010, there may be a few names that escape their attention merely due to lack of playing time or shortened season due to injury. There’s no scientific approach when it comes to evaluating talent for your fantasy draft, but one thing owners must do is make sure they are overturning every stone and not overlooking any stud possibilities…..

Let’s Not Forget in 2011

These are the Players Fantasy Owners Should Remember in 2011

When you start looking back at 2010, there are a few names that may get overlooked simply because it wasn’t there best season statistically, but even so you need to be sure you are looking closely at all of their numbers.

Quarterback Eli Manning would fall into this category; last season the younger Manning tossed 25 interceptions leading the Giants to a 10-6 record. What fantasy owners must pay attention to, although his pick numbers were up considerably, he did pass for 4,000 yards for the second consecutive season and throw 31 touchdowns (4th in the NFL) on 539 passing attempts (8th most in the league). Eli also threw 27 touchdowns in 2009; so while he might be overlooked for his error-prone 2010 campaign, he’s got a lot of upside as a passer.

Shortened season……

Players that were limited in 2010 season, but need to be looked at as early possible fantasy picks would include the Packers tight end Jermichael Finley , the Bengals wide receiver Terrell Owens, the Rams wide receiver Donnie Avery, and the Redskins running back Ryan Torain.

Finley is clearly a star on the rise, but an early season injury ended his 2010 campaign prematurely after just four games. Finley was leading the team with 21 receptions, 301 yards receiving, and already had two 100-yards receiving games in his first three starts (before being knocked out in week four). His premature exit in 2010 should not deter owners from looking at Finley early; he has the talent to be a top three tight end in 2011. Owens is not likely to be back in Cincinnati in 2011, so depending on where he lands, he should be watched. In 14 games in 2010, Owens lead the Bengals with 983 yards and 9 touchdowns; he clearly has plenty left in the tank, but can he find a new home to flourish? The Rams Donnie Avery missed all of the 2010 season, but with his blazing speed he will return in 2011 as one of the teams’ most talented wideouts. Torain (742 yards rushing) started just eight games in 2010, but it was enough to convince head coach Mike Shanahan that he’s their best running back heading toward 2011. With the exit of Portis, the door is wide open for Torain to lead the ground game next season.

Taking a back seat….

A couple of names who could see their fortunes change in 2011 and not necessarily for the better could include the Colts tight end Jacob Tamme and the Rams wide receiver Danny Amendola.

With Dallas Clark going down in 2010, opportunity knocked for tight end Jacob Tamme (67 receptions, 4 touchdowns) and he answered. With Clark on track to return in 2011, Tamme’s fantasy stock is going to take a huge hit; he figures to fall down the food chain considerably next season. Like Tamme the Rams wide receiver Danny Amendola (a PPR favorite in 2010) could see his weekly targets diminished greatly with the return of Avery and Mark Clayton in 2011.

A questionable future of promise…

With so much change taking place in the Mile high country, after a career year the Bronco’s wide receiver Brandon Lloyd could appear to be a fantasy stud in flux. With Orton the designated starter and the possibility of Tim Tebow becoming a start, some owners will question his stock value in 2011. There’s no question Orton starting makes Lloyd look like a top fantasy receiver heading into next season; but remember in the team’s final three games with Tebow under center Lloyd led the team with 14 receptions, 263 yards receiving, and two touchdowns (projected over 16 games: 75/1,402 yds/10-TDs).

In New Orleans the Saints said good-bye to tight end Jeremy Shockey and fantasy owners are saying hello to tight end Jimmy Graham. The Saints number two tight end in 2010, Graham is expected to emerge as the team’s number one and could become a fantasy favorite. His 31 catches and five touchdowns in just five starts last season give owners plenty of reason to think he’s got a lot of promise in 2011; and with Brees throwing him the ball that doesn’t hurt either.

Noteworthy fantasy players…

The Raiders Michael Bush is not going to carry any fantasy owners to a league title, but his strong play down the stretch in 2010 could earn him enough work in 2011 to remain fantasy relevant; as long as he can take care of his off-the-field issues. The Patriots have always been known (in recent times) as a Tom Brady passing team and not much of a running team. In 2010 running back BenJarvous Green-Ellis led the club with 13 rushing touchdowns and 1,008 yards rushing. As long as Brady continues to have success moving the ball, Green-Ellis will remain fantasy relevant especially in touchdown heavy fantasy leagues. After finishing the 2010 season with over 1,000 yards rushing, 51 receptions, and 9 total touchdowns, for running back Matt Forte fantasy owners it would be safe to say the Mike Martz experiment was a success. Forte only figures to get much better in his second season as part of the Martz plan in Chicago.

A couple of players that did not have a great 2010 campaign, but did enough to keep fantasy owners eyes open included the Titan’s wide receiver Kenny Britt, the Texans’ tight end Owen Daniels, and the Bills running back Fred Jackson.

Britt started the 2010 season a little bit in the doghouse, but used his talent and skill to slowly work his way out. It wasn’t a great campaign for Britt, he was still able to showcase lots of promise and possibility with a couple of big games and finishing with nine touchdowns. If the team can find stability at quarterback Britt has the ability to play like a top notch fantasy receiver. Daniels’ recovery from surgery the prior season took much longer than expected, but in the second half of 2010 he started to show signs of health. In his last four games Daniels caught 22 passes for 271 yards and two scores; 2011 could be his return to form. The Bills drafted running back C.J. Spiller in the 2010 draft and it seemed the fantasy world forgot about Fred Jackson. Despite the arrival of new talent to compete with in the backfield, Jackson churned out a pretty good 2010 season; he led the team with 927 yards rushing and five rushing touchdowns. With Spiller keeping company, Jackson’s ceiling may be limited, but he still figures to remain a productive running back in fantasy.

Just my take

By David Ortega