Saturday Night Edition
November 23rd 2019
Week 12: Quick Take
RB-Nick Chubb, Browns
Over his past five games, Browns running back Nick Chubb has had at least 20 carries, averaging nearly 24 touches per game. The Browns ball carrier has seen a minimum of 21 touches and eclipsed 100 yards rushing in three of the five contests. His per game average over this span is 105.1 yards rushing (526 total rushing yards) with two rushing scores. Chubb has also been active in the passing game with 12 receptions for 55 receiving yards on 17 targets. This week Chubb faces a Dolphins defense that allows 148.3 yards rushing per game (31st in the league), so he’ll have a great chance to post solid numbers.
That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega
Saturday Night Edition
November 23rd 2019
Week 12: Armed and Dangerous
As I take a look at the Week 12 matchups for Sunday, there are a couple of quarterbacks that I like the matchup, their current trend, and potential outcome. So let’s start with the ole, West coast team traveling back east to play the early game…
Sam Darnold vs. Raiders
This is just a gut feeling based on the recent play of Darnold and the Jets offense. Darnold slots in as the #25 Fantasy QB through 11 weeks, but he has scored over 21 fantasy points in each of his last two starts, throwing for 525 passing yards, 6 touchdowns (5 pass, 1 rush), and 63.3 passing completion. Darnold has been playing well and I’m counting on a little history here with the Raiders having to travel east and play early. One thing to point out, as good as the Raiders defense has looked the past couple of weeks; their two opposing quarterbacks, Bengals rookie Ryan Finley and the Chargers turnover machine Philip Rivers (7 interceptions in his last two starts).
Matt Ryan vs Buccaneers
Whenever you get Matty-Ice at home, you have to like the prospects. Add that this week the Falcons will host the Bucs and Ryan because an instant start’em. Ryan has yet to face the Bucs this season, but in his two starts last season, he averaged nearly 28 fantasy points per game. The Bucs defense has been awful against the pass this season, allowing 290.9 yards passing (31st) and 25 touchdowns (31st). Ryan’s outlook on Sunday is pretty good.
Baker Mayfield vs Dolphins
As of late the Phins have been a tough out for teams, but this has to be the week Mayfield and company on offense breakout, right? Mayfield comes in as the #22 Fantasy quarterback and he’ll face the 20th ranked pass defense that has allowed 23 passing touchdowns (29th) and 42 pass plays of 20+ yards (28th). The Phins have only recorded 13 sacks in 11 games (tied for fewest in the league). With weapons like OBJ, Landry, Chubb, and Hunt, give Mayfield time and the combination should result in big plays and a lot of fantasy points. We hope.
A couple of risky plays that make me nervous, starts with the big matchup in Foxboro….
Tom Brady vs Cowboys
And while the Patriots have been very good on defense this season, I am not expecting a shutout tomorrow against the Cowboys. The Boys have too many weapons and will manage at least a couple of scores. Brady and the Patriots offense have been out of sync the past couple of weeks and that makes me nervous. Belichick is so creative on the defensive end, I can see the defense accounting for a score or two, and not needing a lot from Brady. Tom Brady is currently the #11 Fantasy QB through 11 weeks, but he has just one passing touchdown in his last two games and has not passed for more than 300 yards in his last four starts.
That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega
Sunday Morning Edition
November 17th 2019
Sunday Morning Gametime
Numbers, Numbers, Numbers
The Bills Quarterback Josh Allen has a prime road matchup against the Dolphins, ranked 26th against opposing QBs, according to FanDuel. Allen has scored at least 17 fantasy points over his last five games and has a great chance to keep this trend going.
The Raiders rookie running back Josh Jacobs has been solid this season and will get the 29th ranked defense versus the running back in the Bengals. In his last two games Jacobs has totaled over 100 yards and scored three touchdowns. He has a very good opportunity to do both today.
The Falcons will have a new face starting in their backfield today with running back Brian Hill taking over ball-carrying duties for the injured Devonta Freeman out. Hill logged 20 carries last week replacing the injured Freeman and should see similar work today against the shaky Panthers run defense (ranked 30th against opposing running backs). Hill could be a nice sneaky play in DFS today.
The Texans top receiving target DeAndre Hopkins (PPR Fantasy WR7) has not been big this season, but he has been steady. Over his past three games Hopkins has logged at least 15 fantasy points (according to FanDuel) with at least 8 receptions. Hopkins will get the Ravens secondary (ranked 17th versus opposing wide receivers, according to FD) today and have a chance at keeping those steady numbers rolling.
Despite what should be a difficult road matchup against the Vikings today, the Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton (PPR Fantasy WR14) has a chance to continue his solid 2019 campaign today facing the 27th ranked defense versus wide receivers. Sutton has had at least 6 targets in every game this season and has scored in double digit fantasy points in 7 straight games.
That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega
Saturday Afternoon Edition
November 16th 2019
Week 11: DSF Saturday “Favorite Stack”
If you play DFS like I do and have played as long as I have, then you too are familiar with and utilize the “Stack” strategy. Every week, you ‘ll find defenses and running back combos that make sense or quarterbacks and receivers that work well, so looking ahead to week 11, this is my favorite “Double” stack.
The Saints will travel to Tampa this week and although the matchup is outdoors, fI am trusting in quarterback Drew Brees and head coach Sean Payton. The Saints are coming off a poor week 10 performance at home and nothing like a week 11 matchup against the Bucs (ranked last against the pass) to right the ship. The Bucs defense has also allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including 235 completions (5th most allowed), and 22 passing touchdowns (3rd most allowed). With those kind of numbers, Brees should bounce back strong.
Along with a shaky Bucs defense, Brees will also have the good fortune of throwing passes to wide receiver Michael Thomas, Fantasy WR3. Thomas leads all receivers this season with 103 targets, 86 receptions, and 1,027 receiving yards. This week Thomas will look to improve his numbers against the Bucs secondary that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing receivers, including 140 receptions (4th most allowed), 1,894 receiving yards (2nd most allowed), and 15 receiving touchdowns (tied for the most allowed).
The third part of my stack, is the Saints tight end Jared Cook (Fantasy TE24), who is coming off his most productive game in Week 10, with 6 receptions, 74 yards receiving, off 10 targets (all season highs). For Cook, he should have a great opportunity to continue his productive trend facing a Bucs defense that has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, including 695 receiving yards (2nd most allowed) and six touchdowns (tied for 3rd most allowed).
Depending on the site and salary cap room, running back Alvin Kamara, could be a consideration as part of this stack. Even though the Bucs have played well against the run, Kamara should be heavily involved in not only the run game, but he’ll also be an integral part of the passing game. I am loving this Stack for Week 11.
That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega
Saturday Night Edition
November 9th 2019
DFS Saturday
It’s almost Sunday of NFL Week 10, and there are a lot of good matchups and ways to go with when building your lineups. The first place I am starting has to be the prime Fantasy matchup between the Buccaneers and the Cardinals; the over-under is set at 54 points.
Both defenses rank near the bottom against the pass (Ari-29th, TB-32nd), so there should be and could be a plethora of points on Sunday.
Players of interest for those that may be considering, Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston will face a Cardinals defense that allows the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including 24 touchdowns (tied for most in the league).
Getting the start this week, the Buccaneers running back Ronald Jones III will get a crack at the Cardinals defense that has allowed the 8th most rushing yards to opposing running backs, including 4.4 yards per carry.
On the other side, this may be a great week for Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray, who will face the Bucs defense that allows the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including 19 touchdowns (2nd most in the league).
What would also make a great stack and connection with Murray is wide receiver Christian Kirk. The Buccaneers defense allows the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
There are of course no guarantees when playing DFS, but I like my chances with these matchups on Sunday.
That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega
