Saturday, March 12, 2011

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

March 12th, 2011 Saturday
David’s Daily Digest


2011 Fantasy Football Players

With future of the 2011 season currently in limbo as the two sides decide how to split our (the fans) money, we’ll continue with prepping for the coming season which still has every possibility of starting on time. Even if this dispute drags well into the summer, there is every indication from many of the prognosticators following the situation that the 2011 season can still be salvaged with just a few games less.

On that note we continue our tour of the 2011 fantasy players looking through the class of quarterback talent that will be available in fantasy drafts this summer….

Fantasy Quarterback…..

Josh Freeman (Buccaneers)

In just his second year, the Buccaneers’ starting quarterback Josh Freeman helped lead his team to a 10-6 record, just missing the playoffs. Last season Freeman passed for nearly 3,500 yards and tossed 25 touchdowns with just six picks finishing with a passer rating of 95.9 (ranked 6th in the league). Freeman was particularly efficient and effective down the stretch in his last four starts completing nearly 73% of his passes while throwing nine touchdowns and no interceptions.

At 6’6” Freeman has the ideal size to be your traditional pocket passer, but with 364 yards rushing he has great escape-ability and athleticism to be even more dangerous out of the pocket. Following a very sub-par and non-spectacular rookie season Freeman flew well under the fantasy radar in 2010, but after his sophomore success he’s going to be on many owners draft lists this summer.

The Buccaneers are a fastly improving program and with young talent like LeGarrette Blount, Mike Williams, and Kellen Winslow Jr. surrounding their young quarterback, Freeman will only get better. He’s not reached the upper echelon of quarterbacks in the NFL just yet, but Freeman is well on his way.

Freeman is not likely to throw for a big chunk of yardage at any particular time with the Bucs being more of a balanced team that likes to run, but he’s still a close second tier level fantasy quarterback (amongst the Flaccos and Schaubs). His talent and skill level would suggest big game possibility as evident in his five touchdown performance against the Seahawks in week 16 last season, but the young gunslinger should still be considered a bit of a risky fantasy starter.

Last season Freeman had nine games in 2010 where he threw one or fewer touchdowns; in three of those games he also passed for less than 200 yards. He would probably serve much better as your number two quarterback; his accuracy offers the upside of an occasional big game (look for the matchups); he did have three games last season where he passed for more than 200 yards with multiple touchdowns.

In dynasty and keeper leagues, he’s definitely one worth stashing on the back of the grill while he seasons a bit longer (but not for too much longer).

By David Ortega

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

March 9th, 2011 Wednesday
David’s Daily Digest


2011 Fantasy Football Players

Not a lot has changed recently with the league and player’s union talks, but we are always ever so hopeful they will find a resolution and we will have football. Always moving right along with the idea that there will be football in the fall, I begin my player-by-player look at the more notable fantasy studs that we should be near the top of all fantasy football drafts lists this summer.

Just like most NFL teams, a championship usually (but not always) starts with the quarterback and that’s exactly where we will start ….

Fantasy Quarterbacks…..

Tom Brady (Patriots)

The Patriots quarterback has been one of the most successful on the gridiron since his meteoric rise in the 2001 season. Brady has captured three Super Bowl titles (twice voted the game MVP) and twice has won the AP NFL MVP award. He is a fantasy favorite having thrown for 4,000 yards three times in his last five full seasons and 28 or more touchdowns five times in his last eight (full) seasons.

Brady is coming off another fantastic season passing for 3,900 yards and tossing 36 touchdowns without a marquee receiver. The Patriots are very young at the receiver spot with two young tight ends and a couple of youthful wide outs, but with the savvy Brady under center he is still capable of playing big. 2011 should have a similar look as last season for the Patriots offense and there’s no reason to believe that Brady can’t engineer the same type of success or better.

Brady (299 fantasy points) finished his 2010 campaign as the third highest scoring fantasy quarterback (based on traditional scoring) behind Aaron Rodgers and Michael Vick. This summer Tom Brady once again remains a top five fantasy quarterback amongst the likes of Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Philip Rivers.

By David Ortega

Sunday, March 6, 2011

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE SUNDAY FANTASY REPORT

March 5th, 2011 Saturday
The Sunday Fantasy Report


The 2010 season featured quite a few players that rose to the top of fantasy stardom as well as a handful of studs that took advantage of their short stint on the main stage. And while fantasy owners will be closely dissecting the performances of 2010, there may be a few names that escape their attention merely due to lack of playing time or shortened season due to injury. There’s no scientific approach when it comes to evaluating talent for your fantasy draft, but one thing owners must do is make sure they are overturning every stone and not overlooking any stud possibilities…..

Let’s Not Forget in 2011

These are the Players Fantasy Owners Should Remember in 2011

When you start looking back at 2010, there are a few names that may get overlooked simply because it wasn’t there best season statistically, but even so you need to be sure you are looking closely at all of their numbers.

Quarterback
Eli Manning would fall into this category; last season the younger Manning tossed 25 interceptions leading the Giants to a 10-6 record. What fantasy owners must pay attention to, although his pick numbers were up considerably, he did pass for 4,000 yards for the second consecutive season and throw 31 touchdowns (4th in the NFL) on 539 passing attempts (8th most in the league). Eli also threw 27 touchdowns in 2009; so while he might be overlooked for his error-prone 2010 campaign, he’s got a lot of upside as a passer.

Shortened season……

Players that were limited in 2010 season, but need to be looked at as early possible fantasy picks would include the Packers tight end
Jermichael Finley , the Bengals wide receiver Terrell Owens, the Rams wide receiver Donnie Avery, and the Redskins running back Ryan Torain.

Finley is clearly a star on the rise, but an early season injury ended his 2010 campaign prematurely after just four games. Finley was leading the team with 21 receptions, 301 yards receiving, and already had two 100-yards receiving games in his first three starts (before being knocked out in week four). His premature exit in 2010 should not deter owners from looking at Finley early; he has the talent to be a top three tight end in 2011. Owens is not likely to be back in Cincinnati in 2011, so depending on where he lands, he should be watched. In 14 games in 2010, Owens lead the Bengals with 983 yards and 9 touchdowns; he clearly has plenty left in the tank, but can he find a new home to flourish? The Rams Donnie Avery missed all of the 2010 season, but with his blazing speed he will return in 2011 as one of the teams’ most talented wideouts. Torain (742 yards rushing) started just eight games in 2010, but it was enough to convince head coach Mike Shanahan that he’s their best running back heading toward 2011. With the exit of Portis, the door is wide open for Torain to lead the ground game next season.

Taking a back seat….

A couple of names who could see their fortunes change in 2011 and not necessarily for the better could include the Colts tight end Jacob Tamme and the Rams wide receiver Danny Amendola.

With Dallas Clark going down in 2010, opportunity knocked for tight end Jacob Tamme (67 receptions, 4 touchdowns) and he answered. With Clark on track to return in 2011, Tamme’s fantasy stock is going to take a huge hit; he figures to fall down the food chain considerably next season. Like Tamme the Rams wide receiver Danny Amendola (a PPR favorite in 2010) could see his weekly targets diminished greatly with the return of Avery and Mark Clayton in 2011.

A questionable future of promise…

With so much change taking place in the Mile high country, after a career year the Bronco’s wide receiver
Brandon Lloyd could appear to be a fantasy stud in flux. With Orton the designated starter and the possibility of Tim Tebow becoming a start, some owners will question his stock value in 2011. There’s no question Orton starting makes Lloyd look like a top fantasy receiver heading into next season; but remember in the team’s final three games with Tebow under center Lloyd led the team with 14 receptions, 263 yards receiving, and two touchdowns (projected over 16 games: 75/1,402 yds/10-TDs).

In New Orleans the Saints said good-bye to tight end Jeremy Shockey and fantasy owners are saying hello to tight end
Jimmy Graham. The Saints number two tight end in 2010, Graham is expected to emerge as the team’s number one and could become a fantasy favorite. His 31 catches and five touchdowns in just five starts last season give owners plenty of reason to think he’s got a lot of promise in 2011; and with Brees throwing him the ball that doesn’t hurt either.

Noteworthy fantasy players…

The Raiders
Michael Bush is not going to carry any fantasy owners to a league title, but his strong play down the stretch in 2010 could earn him enough work in 2011 to remain fantasy relevant; as long as he can take care of his off-the-field issues. The Patriots have always been known (in recent times) as a Tom Brady passing team and not much of a running team. In 2010 running back BenJarvous Green-Ellis led the club with 13 rushing touchdowns and 1,008 yards rushing. As long as Brady continues to have success moving the ball, Green-Ellis will remain fantasy relevant especially in touchdown heavy fantasy leagues. After finishing the 2010 season with over 1,000 yards rushing, 51 receptions, and 9 total touchdowns, for running back Matt Forte fantasy owners it would be safe to say the Mike Martz experiment was a success. Forte only figures to get much better in his second season as part of the Martz plan in Chicago.

A couple of players that did not have a great 2010 campaign, but did enough to keep fantasy owners eyes open included the Titan’s wide receiver
Kenny Britt, the Texans’ tight end Owen Daniels, and the Bills running back Fred Jackson.

Britt started the 2010 season a little bit in the doghouse, but used his talent and skill to slowly work his way out. It wasn’t a great campaign for Britt, he was still able to showcase lots of promise and possibility with a couple of big games and finishing with nine touchdowns. If the team can find stability at quarterback Britt has the ability to play like a top notch fantasy receiver. Daniels’ recovery from surgery the prior season took much longer than expected, but in the second half of 2010 he started to show signs of health. In his last four games Daniels caught 22 passes for 271 yards and two scores; 2011 could be his return to form. The Bills drafted running back C.J. Spiller in the 2010 draft and it seemed the fantasy world forgot about Fred Jackson. Despite the arrival of new talent to compete with in the backfield, Jackson churned out a pretty good 2010 season; he led the team with 927 yards rushing and five rushing touchdowns. With Spiller keeping company, Jackson’s ceiling may be limited, but he still figures to remain a productive running back in fantasy.

Just my take

By David Ortega

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

FSH NOTEBOOK: WATERCOOLER CHAT

March 2nd, 2011 Thursday
Wednesday’s
Watercooler Chat

Before we get to far ahead of ourselves and start looking deep into the 2011 fantasy season with fingers crossed, we’re going to take a moment to recognized those players that made the 2010 well worth watching and playing fantasy. If we are going to look back at anything, there’s no better place to start than at the top; the 2010 top fantasy studs.

Every year fantasy owners do their homework to determine the best of the best before their respective drafts; these were the fantasy studs found in the early rounds (1-6) of most fantasy drafts that out-performed their expectations for 2010.

The 2010 Fantasy Studs

Roddy White, WR-Atlanta Falcons
Heading the list of studs from last season has to be the Falcons wide receiver Roddy White. A top fantasy prospect for 2010, the Falcons receiver posted career numbers with 115 receptions and yards, making him a favorite in traditional leagues as well as PPR. White also added another 10 receiving touchdowns following his career high 11 in 2009.

Calvin Johnson, WR-Detroit Lions
Megatron makes our list with a bounce back 2010 season after a 2009 campaign that was derailed with injuries and double/triple teams. Last season Johnson caught 77 passes for 1,120 yards and his 12 touchdowns ranked 2nd among the leaders making him a fantasy favorite.

Tom Brady, QB-New England Patriots
The Patriots signal caller is always a terrific fantasy bet, but after a 2009 season that saw a slight dip in production, few fantasy owners could expect the season Brady delivered in 2010 especially with the loss of his best weapon (Randy Moss). Brady still led the league with 36 touchdown passes and added 3,900 yards passing to the delight of many fantasy owners.

Philip Rivers, QB-San Diego Chargers
The Chargers field general was already a projected top 5 fantasy quarterback by most heading into 2010, but with a strong performance in 2010 he performed near best. Rivers had one of his best seasons as a pro in 2010 passing for 4,710 yards (a career high) and tossing 30 touchdowns. His strong play last season certified him place among the elite class and will put his name at the top of several fantasy draft lists in 2011.

The Noteworthy of 2010…

These “Studs” enjoyed banner success in 2010 and brought much happiness to many fantasy owners on Sunday;

Jamaal Charles (Chiefs), 1,457 yards rush, 45 rec, 468 yards rec, 8 TDs
Dwayne Bowe (Chiefs), 72 receptions, 1,162 yards receiving, 15 TDs
Rashard Mendenhall (Steelers), 1,273 yards rush, 23 rec, 167 yards rec, 13 TDs
Matt Forte (Bears), 1,069 yards rush, 547 yards rec, 9 TDs
Ahmad Bradshaw (Giants), 1,235 yards rush, 47 rec, 314 yards rec, 8 TDs
Jason Witten (Cowboys), 1,002 yards receiving, 9 TDs
Peyton Manning (Colts), 4,700 yards passing, 33 TDs
Hakeem Nicks (Giants), 79 receptions, 1,052 yards receiving, 11 TDs
Santana Moss (Redskins), 93 receptions, 1,115 yards receiving, 6 TDs


Checking back for more fantasy football notes....

By David G. Ortega

Sunday, February 27, 2011

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

February 27th, 2011 Sunday
David’s Daily Digest


IDP Time Continues


As we continue to take a look at the IDP side of fantasy one thing to point out, when it comes to scoring on the defensive side of fantasy consistency tells the tale. Pass rushing linebackers tend to have the big games during the fantasy season, but it’s the run-stuffers that get it done week in and week out. The team leading tacklers are the back bone of any fantasy defense, because their consistent play will help you win championships….

The Run-Stuffers…..

LB-Jerod Mayo
The Patriots leading tackler not only led his team, but Jerod Mayo led the entire league with 114 solo tackles and 175 combined. It was the second time in his three seasons that he has registered more than 100 solo tackles and in all three seasons Mayo has combined for more than 100. Mayo will be at the top of many fantasy IDP drafts lists this summer.

LB-Stephen Tulloch
The Titans five-year middle-linebacker Stephen Tulloch came into his own this past season. After a very strong 2009 campaign Tulloch came back in 2010 to finish the year with 111 solo tackles (2nd in the league) and 160 combined (2nd in the league). 2010 marked the first season Tulloch started all 16 games and fantasy owners can be sure he will be starting all 16 in 2011. He’s another IDP name that will be near the top of most draft lists in 2011.

LB-Brian Urlacher
The Bears biggest Monster of the Midway returned to the gridiron in style in 2010 after missing nearly all of the 2009 season. Urlacher led the team with 96 solo stops and 125 combined last season and he showcased his athletic ability with four sacks, 10 pass-defenses, one interceptions, and two forced fumbles. He likely won’t go first in IDP drafts this summer, but his versatility will keep him in the top-ten.

LB-Patrick Willis
The Niners team leading tackler Patrick Willis stepped up his game with six sacks in 2010, but his overall totals took a slight dip. Despite the fall in tackling numbers with 128 combined in 2010, Willis remains a top tier selection on most draft boards and will likely go near the top once again.

LB-Paul Posluszny
The Bills linebacker Pau Posluszny has quickly become a rising star in this league in just four seasons. In just 14 games in 2010 he totaled 151 tackles and looks primed to be a run-stuffing force for years to come. His name is one that will be heard a lot on fantasy draft day, especially near to the top of all drafts.

Reliable names worthy of mention…

While players like James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley grab the headlines with hard hits and quarterback sacks, linebacker Lawrence Timmons clogs the middle and leads the team with tackles (135 combined tackles in 2010).

Another linebacker lacking the headlines of notoriety, but still getting the job done in the middle is the Vikings Chad Greenway (144 combined tackles in 2010).

Ray Lewis was solid again in 2010 (139 combined tackles) and should be a worthy second tier linebacker grab in IDP fantasy drafts this summer.

The Broncos have a steady player in the middle on defense with linebacker D.J. Williams (119 combined tackles in 2010). With two straight seasons with more than 100 combined tackles Williams is quickly becoming an IDP fantasy favorite; he’s a high second tier linebacker pick in fantasy drafts.

These are just a handful of the run-stuffers that will be ranked later this summer when we start looking at fantasy drafts for 2011. Check back soon as we continue to review the defensive side of fantasy.

By David Ortega