FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Tuesday Evening Edition

September 9th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Week 1 Recap

Sorting through the Debris

The fantasy football roller-coaster is just starting to pick up speed and with one week in the books, there’s so much to cover and talk about. We have to look at who did what, who was a bust, which sleepers emerged, and which studs were on par this past Sunday. Was there real concern in the Steelers backfield with Le’Veon Bell and LeGarette Blount splitting carries, who is the real feature back in New England, and with Wes Welker missing which Broncos receiver emerged to pick up the slack?

With all of this to sort through it can become real over-whelming for fantasy owners looking to rebound from their week one debacle or continue their winning ways following a season opening win. There’s never too much information when it comes to fantasy football, just sometimes we need to take a minute to sort through the debris and see a clear picture.

The refuse…

With Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell seeing the bulk of work (27 touches) in week one, looks like fantasy owners that drafted running back LeGarrette Blount (4 touches) may have to rethink their strategy. He did sneak in a score, but going forward if he is limited to few touches, owners can’t count on consistent production.

There was a lot of hype surrounding the Lions rookie tight end Eric Ebron, but for now that’s all there is. Ebron was targeted just twice and did not record a catch. He’s not worth owning at this time; at least not until fantasy owners see something.

The Cardinals running back Andre Ellington saw plenty of action on Monday night; 18 touches. Back-up running back Jonathan Dwyer saw about the most action he might see all season; 9 touches for 28 yards. You can toss Dwyer back into the pile.

The Salvage….

The Ravens basically benched running back Bernard Pierce after fumbling, which opened the door for running back Justin Forsett. The journeyman back finished with 16 touches, which included 6 targets. Going forward, in light of the Ray Rice loss Forsett should continue to see plenty of action as long as he responds as he did in week one; he had 84 total yards and a score.

The Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger likes his receiver Antonio Brown, but his second year wideout Marcus Wheaton could quickly become his second favorite. Wheaton has great speed and tremendous upside, along with his seven targets (tied for most on team) on Sunday he looks to be busy fantasy receiver as well. Wheaton is probably a low WR3 or flex at the moment, but should be owned.

So much for the worry surrounding Texans receiver Andre Johnson; he was a bit quiet on Sunday, but still turned in a decent fantasy day with six receptions for 93 yards. His nine targets should be a real indicator he’s still a safe fantasy play on Sunday.

The Broncos just have too many weapons and with Wes Welker out, quarterback Peyton Manning just dipped into his receiving depth targeting wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders nine times. Sanders also added a carry for 11 yards. He’s a safe weekly play as a mid flex or high WR3.

Lastly, I heard about this kid early last week, the Saints rookie receiver Brandin Cooks and what I saw on Sunday confirmed the deal. Cooks is a special talent that we’ll continue to see lots of moving forward. On Sunday he totaled 95 yards with one receiving touchdown on 8 touches. In the Saints explosive pass game Cooks should be a gamer. Owners may want to temper their expectations momentarily until we see a larger sample, but he should be a safe flex for now.

These are just some of my takes for the Week 1 recap.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday morning Edition

September 7th, 2014 

David’s Daily Digest

SUNDAY MORNING GAMETIME

Numbers to help the Cause

With the Week 1 Sunday kickoff just hours away, fantasy owners are scrambling to make those last minutes tweaks to their lineups. If you are like me, I am always looking for data and numbers to help me find the best plays for Sunday.

Here are some of the numbers you should know for week 1;

Even though the Rob Ryan Saints defense only allowed the 5^th fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season, Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has had success in the past throwing the ball. In 4 of his last 6 starts versus the Saints Ryan has thrown for more than 300 yards. In his one game last season against the Saints when he had all of his weapons Ryan also completed 65 percent of his passes and threw two touchdowns.

Facing the Ravens defense at home today, Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton may be one to avoid. In his two starts last season against Baltimore Dalton has been picked off seven times, including four at home in the finale.

The Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer was coming off the board as a mid QB-2 in most drafts and even later in some. He’s been a little overlooked, but in 2013 in the second half of the season Palmer showed some glimmer. In his last 8 starts he completed over 60 percent of his passes in five of those, throwing multiple touchdowns in 5 of those contests as well. Palmers’ numbers down the stretch were not out of this world, but they should not be overlooked; 295 yards passing per game, 14 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Monday night he’ll face the Chargers secondary that allowed the 8^th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

The Bills will use a committee of both running back CJ Spiller and running back Fred Jackson (both were top 30 running backs in fantasy last season). Even with a lesser experienced quarterback (E.J. Manuel) under center, both should find success on the ground facing the Bears defense today. Last season Chicago allowed the second most fantasy points to running backs, including 19 rushing touchdowns, 2^nd most. Both Spiller and Jackson should be safe plays today.

There’s been little talk about Texans running back Arian Foster, and more importantly no talk about any injuries. A healthy Foster facing a suspect Redskins run defense could spell for a big day. Foster has the talent to blow up and with the Redskins allowing the 4^th most fantasy points to opposing running backs and 20 rushing touchdowns (most in the league) last season, he could be fantasy gold.

Just some numbers to know for Sunday week 1.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Evening Edition

September 6th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

MY WEEK 1 FAVORITES

No Sleep for the Wicked

So here we are less than 24 hours away from the first Sunday of NFL Week 1 and so begins the season long marathon we all love called fantasy football!

The season officially kicked off on Thursday night with the Packers and Seattle, but the fantasy season will actually kick into high gear Sunday morning. With that, many fantasy owners will be checking the wires for injury updates, taking to social media for line-up advice and searching for the week one sleepers.

Playing in many leagues this season, I am no different always trying to read between the lines, looking for deeper insight for the best plays on Sunday. After conducting my own quick research I have found a hand-full of Sunday wicked plays that I am in great favor of and leaning toward. Okay, maybe they are no wicked, but let's just say I like them.

Running back Steven Jackson nearly fell off the edge of the fantasy world during some fantasy drafts I participated in, going in the 10^th round and later. He’s being overlooked and greatly underrated due to his injury history, with running backs like Joique Bell, Toby Gerhart, and Lamar Miller going off the board in front of him.

The Falcons runner is healthy and sounds like he’s ready to go this week. His matchup against the Saints 19^th ranked run defense does not necessarily spell big day, but playing at home with the return of wide receiver Julio Jones and a healthy Roddy White should open up plenty of holes for the run game. Jackson played in both matchups last season averaging 17 plus touches and 16 fantasy points (standard one point per reception PPR leagues) per contest. The Falcons don’t figure to lean on Jackson too heavily in week 1, but he should see plenty of action and could post solid numbers as a low-end RB2 or flex start.

It’s no secret that Vikings wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson is a great talent, but now in the Norv Turner system he could quickly blossom into fantasy stud. Last season Patterson came on late in the season scoring at least one touchdown in each of his final five games averaging 17 fantasy points per game (standard one point per reception PPR leagues). Patterson also showed his ceiling potential with two of those contests with more than 20 fantasy points. Patterson would appear to be the favorite in Norv’s passing game plan and could elevate his fantasy stock to top shelf. Although he has a tough matchup on Sunday against the Rams defense, he’s facing a secondary that allowed the 8^th most pass receptions to receivers last season; he’s get his.

One more fantasy nugget for week 1 is wide receiver Torrey Smith. It’s funny to me that his last name is Smith, because the last time Kubiak was calling plays for an offense in Denver (quite a few years ago) he had a pretty good receiver there named (Rod) Smith. The Ravens wideout is the go-to receiver; he has great speed and nice hands, if he can add some crisp route running to his repertoire with Kubiak calling plays he could suddenly become a fantasy favorite well beyond week 1. At home last season against the Bengals, Smith posted 15 fantasy points (standard one point per reception PPR), so in the new system under Kubiak fantasy owners can expect to Smith featured even more with greater results.

That’s my take for Week 1.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Morning Edition

September 6th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

BEASTMODE UNLEASHED

No Holds Barred!

So much for the holdout-hangover for Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch, who kicked off the Thursday night opener with a bang. The Seahawks runner proved he didn’t need a full training camp to get ready for the 2014 NFL season.

Lynch dominated the Packers defense running wild in full beastmode, tearing through the secondary on his way to 110 yards rushing. Lynch toted the rock 20 times and averaged a hefty 5.5 yards per carry while scoring twice on the ground. He also added a single grab for another 14 yards.

Lynch may not be seeing the payday of his choice, but he playing like a man possessed and deserving of recognition as one of the leagues very best running backs. Lynch is clearly one of fantasy football’s top running backs, but his PPR real estate may take a slight hit based on his lone reception. Either way, if you paid attention Thursday night it was clear, Lynch is fantasy gold week in and week out.

Fantasy Notes:

If you drafted any of the Seahawks backfield (Robert Turbin, Christine Micheal) other than Lynch, don’t hold your breath in hopes of playing them anytime soon. Lynch is a durable back; heading into 2014 he has missed just two games over the past three season which includes 988 touches over that span. He is also a featured part of the Seahawks run game (21 touches in week one) and add the explosive Percy Harvin to the mix and there’s slim and none chances of either seeing many opportunities going forward. Don’t hold your breath.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Tuesday Evening Edition

September 2nd, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Draft Day Frenzy: Ready, Set, Go!

There’s nothing like the adrenaline rush the fantasy owner gets from participating in a fantasy football draft and watching the clock ticker countdown. Of course not to be compared to scaling the tallest mountains or jumping from a plane at 10,000 feet, but for the fantasy owner this experience comes just once a year and it’s a big thrill.

Now try drafting in 18 fantasy leagues and we are talking fantasy football overload. Yes, that’s right over the past 10 ten days I managed to participate in most of 18 fantasy drafts. No need to call Guinness, I am sure it’s not close to any kind of record. But what I can tell you, it was a lot of fun (being the fantasy football fanatic that I am) and it was very educational.

Of the 18 leagues that I will be playing in, only three are traditional money leagues while the others will be for nothing more than bragging rights and the ability to declare myself (in my own head) the King of fantasy football (when I dominate most of them).

The first important lesson that I learned from all of these fantasy drafts, I am able to multi-task; exhibited on Saturday when I had two drafts going simultaneous. The second lesson learned you have to be present on draft day; auto-pick is never kind. You have to be present to pick your winner.

With all that aside, the past week has offered me a deeper look into some of the deeper fantasy options “the ones to watch” and favorites that went a little later.

As far as some of the favorites that slid down the draft two of the most noteworthy was wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald and running back Chris Johnson. Speaking from a strictly fantasy football perspective and fan insight, I can’t understand why Fitzgerald has been so overlooked (drafting late in the 4^th and into the 5^th round). He has his quarterback (Carson Palmer) returning and physically looks as good as ever. The Cardinals passing offense is fully loaded with running back Andre Ellington and wide receiver Michael Floyd to complement Fitz. He’s a crafty veteran with (still) great hands and a nose for the end-zone; my book he finishes in the top-10.

For running back Chris Johnson, a fresh start and new beginning could be just what this Jet needs to soar again. He’s in an ideal fit for a talented runner; a coach that loves to run. Johnson’s a homerun hitter that does not need volume; he can make a huge fantasy impact with 15-18 carries consistently week in and week out. As long as he stays healthy, CJ2K has a chance to return to the top-10 in rushing this season. He’s still got the wheels to make the big plays and could easily hit double-digit scores in 2014. I like Johnson as a possible top 5 fantasy running back; a big step up from a year ago where he finished 11^th in standard scoring.

We are just two days away from the start of the 2014 season and there’s still so much fantasy football to discuss. Are you ready for some fantasy football?

~David Ortega