FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

December 16th, 2011, Friday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

Trends for your Championship run…

Ryan Grant’s stock on the rise…With running back James Starks currently slowed down with a bad wheel (ankle), even if he plays Grant figures to see the bulk of the work load on Sunday against the Chiefs 26th ranked run defense. Grant is coming off his best game of the season and looks to be strong bet to find pay-dirt for his second consecutive game and a nice chunk of yardage.

McGahee should be on your radar….depsite coming off a tough 34-yard rushing effort against the Bears in week 14, the Broncos running back Willis McGahee has eclipsed the century mark in two of his last three starts. On Sunday he’ll face the league’s 13th ranked run defense that was pummeled a week ago for 170 yards by the Redskins running game. Fantasy owners should look for McGahee to gash the Pats for some good numbers on the ground and at least one trip to the end-zone.

AJ Green ready to come alive…..after a quiet week 14 with just five catches for 59 yards, the Bengals rookie receiver looks primed to have a big game on Sunday against the Rams. Even with the leagues 8th ranked pass defense the Rams secondary was lit up a week ago by the Seahawks Tarvaris Jackson; 21 of 32 for 224 yards. Green is a much greater talent that what the Rams faced a week ago and seems to be the hot target for quarterback Andy Dalton; 18 targets in the last two weeks with many more on Sunday.

Garcon could be the man on Sunday…..while the Colts will be searching for their first win of the season at home on Sunday against the Titans, I am expect to see Dan Orlovsky to continue to heavily seek out Colts receiver Pierre Garcon. In the last two games that Orlovsky has started Garcon has caught 14 passes for 196 yards with two touchdowns on 24 targets. With Reggie Wayne on the other side, Garcon should once again be the man in the Colts passing attack.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY MORNING GAMETIME

December 4th, 2011 Sunday

Sunday Morning Gametime

My quick notes:

Who to Watch

Tonight’s Sunday night matchup between the Saints and Lions could end up being a much closer track meet than what saw last Monday between the Saints and Giants. Matthew Stafford has shown this season he has the talent to run with the big dogs, but he’s also got the horses. The Saints are 27th against the pass and could have a lot of matchup problems with some of the Lions big targets. I like Stafford to break out of his funk and play well on the road.

The Cowboys have been rolling along the past several weeks and a big reason has been the consistent play of quarterback Tony Romo. On the road today, he’ll have a chance to continue his winning ways and solid play when the Cowboys meet the Cardinals in Arizona. The Cards rank 25th against the pass and allow more than 250 yards in the air; Romo should be solid today.

Despite the notion that “he can’t” I would suggest sticking with your instincts and keep Tebow in your lineup. He’s on the road today to take on Minnesota, and while the Broncos have been predominantly a running team, I expect to see a few more balls in the air. This could be the week where we see more of Tebow the passer and not just Tebow the playmaker. Either way facing the leagues 29th ranked pass defense could mean for a big game for Tebow.

Who to Avoid

It looks like Rams quarterback Sam Bradford (game-time decision) is sitting on the fence and with AJ Feeley taking first team snaps this week in practice, this could be a situation well worth avoiding all together. The Rams are on the road today and face a daunting task when they travel to San Francisco to play the 49ers.

The Cardinals Beanie Wells is coming off a career game, so the tendency is to stick him in your line-up. While the Cowboys have not been stout versus the run, they have good speed on the defensive side and could be playing most of this game from out front. Wells will become less of a factor if the Cards have to play catchup; Wells could be risky so you may want to look at better options if available.


My Picks Today

My “Four Horsemen”

I stepped away for a while, but today I am feeling good about quite a few players, so let’s take another shot at our four riders for week 13;

Matthew Stafford; the kid has been struggling some, but I look for a bounce back performance tonight against a Saint team that will have to bring pressure and could leave a few Lions in single coverage. Stafford should go for a nifty 300 with at least two touchdowns tonight.

Reggie Bush; if you play PPR then this is your man for Sundya. Taking on the Raiders, Bush should be the focus out of the backfield and in space. The Raiders run defense is ranked 27th and will have trouble slowing down Bush; he’s also a threat to grab a number of passes out of the backfield. I expect at least 125 yards of total offense with 4-5 grabs and a trip to the end-zone.

Brandon Lloyd; despite the possible change at quarterback today, I still like Lloyd. He is the Rams best weapon and whether it’s Feeley or Bradford, he’ll see more than his share of targets; averaging double-digits since becoming a Ram. The 49ers boast a stingy defense, but they do surrender over 240 yards per game and have allowed 15 passing touchdowns. I expect Lloyd to grab a number of passes with at least one trip to the end-zone.

Aaron Hernandez; The Colts are well of aware of the Patriots tight ends, but they won’t be able to cover both. Gronkowski has been the focus over recent weeks, but with Hernandez coming off consecutive seven target games I expect to see Brady look his way a little more often this Sunday. Hernandez has not a big game since week one, but could turn in a huge day today against the Colts; six catches, 85 yards and a score.

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

December 3rd, 2011, Saturday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

Frank Gore: A Gold Rush of a Niner
Thus far through 12 weeks of football this season the Niners running back Frank Gore has remained a relatively steady fantasy start for owners throughout, especially over the past month and a half (with the exception of his week 10 early exit). Last week the Niners starting ball carrier was limited to just 39 yards on the ground and 48 yards of offense overall, but that was facing the Baltimore Ravens number three ranked run defense (probably a game you may have considered sitting Gore).

Prior to that the former Miami Hurricane had been running extremely well topping the 100-yard rushing mark in 5 of his last 7 starts and scoring no fewer than 9 fantasy points in six of those games; standard scoring. Gore is the number six leading rusher in the NFL with 909 yards on the ground to go with his 101 receiving yards and 5 rushing touchdowns. He’s averaging a very nice 4.5 yards per carry and has shown great reliability with well over 200 touches this season and just two turnovers. On Sunday Gore will be showcasing his talents against the St. Louis Rams and their 32nd ranked run defense, that allow a league worst 159 yards on the ground.

My Analysis: Gore has been solid this season and on Sunday he has a fantastic matchup against the Rams. Quarterback Alex Smith has been a little shaky turning over the ball over lately with three of his five interceptions this season coming in the last three games. The Niners will likely stick with the ground assault against the league’s worst run defense. In his last two games against the Rams Gore has averaged 142 yards of offense, including 97 yards rushing; he also has three rushing touchdowns. Expect the trend to continue and look for a big game from Gore once again.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

December 1st, 2011 Thursday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

Matthew Stafford: A Young Lion Ready to Roar
The past three weeks for quarterback Matt Stafford and the Lions have not been too kind; the team is 1-2 and Stafford has turned the ball over nine times. After staring out strong this season and coming off a three touchdown and no interception effort against the Broncos in week 8, Stafford has been inconsistent and unlucky. His accuracy may be in question, but with a 65% completion rate, it’s more about decision making than accuracy.

Stafford has also been playing with a fractured index finger on his throwing hand, so his nine picks and any inaccuracy from the pocket would be understandable (although he has refuted any notion). Whether is has been his hand or not, something has been wrong with Stafford as of late. Maybe it’s a confidence issue with some of his throws or lack of, but this Sunday night against the Saints it could all change.

Stafford will shed the protective glove and splint he has been wearing over the past several weeks and hoping to return closer to the form that has led him to 26 touchdowns and over 3,000 yards passing. In week 13 he faces a secondary ranked 27th against the pass and a defense that has also allowed 18 touchdowns to just six picks. With an array of weapons like Megatron, Pettigrew, Burleson, and Scheffler, Stafford could be looking at a huge night of passing with lots of success.

My analysis: The Saints defense played from in front most of Monday night allowing the Giants and quarterback Eli Manning to spray the ball around the field to the tune of 400 yards in the air. One thing to note is the defense also had to rely on a lot of blitzing to create pressure, something the Lions will surely be looking for. This Sunday night’s matchup is likely to take on the same look and could lead to a very big passing night for Stafford. The Lions, just like the Giants of late struggle with the ground game (ranked 22nd) and will rely heavily on attacking the Saints suspect secondary. Start Stafford with a lot of confidence.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 30th, 2011 Wednesday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

ANDRE JOHNSON: To Start or Not-To Start
The Texans All-Pro receiver, Andre Johnson (knee) finally made his return to the field last Sunday against the Jaguars, after missing the past six games. His return was far from triumphant (just two catches for 22 yards), but it was a good sign for fantasy owners who will be hoping to see him return to form in week 14 (during the fantasy playoffs). That’s the good news.

The bad news for fantasy owners hoping to play Johnson now and into the playoffs; who will be under center for the Texans? Following their week 10 in over the Buccaneers, the Texans lost their starter Matt Schaub for the season with a foot injury and just when it looked “all systems go” with back up quarterback Matt Lienart under center, he went down in week 12 with a broken collarbone. Now the Texans are left with an inexperienced rookie quarterback at the helm.

We know that rookie T.J Yates (North Carolina) will be taking the snaps on Sunday, but what we don’t know is how this is going to impact the offense and the passing game for fantasy owners. For those of us that have been riding all season long without one of our biggest weapons (Johnson), we could be submitting our lineups on Sunday with one of our biggest guns firing blanks or will he.

I am always the optimist and when I consider how high I drafted Johnson back in August, I can’t imagine sitting him on Sunday and seeing my fantasy team go down without all of my best players. For some it may look like fantasy-suicide, but is it really. On Sunday when Yates entered the game Johnson had only been targeted just once, a play in the first half that was nullified because of a penalty. In the second half Yates would look for #80 three times connecting twice for 22 yards.

While these numbers are nowhere near staggering it should be mentioned also that the Texans where well in control leading 20-10 and did not have to lean much on the pass. So if you project these numbers some, if Yates had started the game and the Jaguars offense been a little more effective in the early going, Johnson may have had a chance to see as many as six to seven targets (maybe a couple more in the early going) throughout the game.

My Analysis: This Sunday’s matchup with the Falcons would appear to pit the Texans up against an offense that could force them to be a little less conservative and have to keep pace. I would not expect a shoot-out of any sort, but the Falcons will certainly be more capable of putting up more than 13 points. Yates is going to have to stand in the pocket and make some throws and from we saw in week 12, he is more than capable of finding AJ. I would not expect a big game necessarily from Johnson, but I would not be surprised to see as many as 7-9 targets would come mean a very decent fantasy out-put; especially with this fantasy beast. Start him!


By David Ortega