FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Evening Edition

October 25th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Week 8 Starts-Sits

My Favorites for Sunday

So as Sunday draws near, it’s another slate of games and another list of some of my fantasy favorites for week 8. I have several lineups going in season long leagues as well as many in the weekly plays; these are several of the names that dominate both.

RB-Jerick McKinnon

The Vikings rookie runner turned in a nice performance a week ago rushing for more than 100 yards against a good Bills defense. This could be an even better and bigger week for McKinnon facing the Buccaneers 25^th ranked rushing defense that is allowing 128.3 yards per game. The Bucs defense also allows the 7^th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including 8 total touchdowns. This could be a good week for McKinnon to find the end-zone; start him.

RB-Tre Mason

The Rams rookie running back is finally getting his chance and coming off an impressive 18-carry, 85 yards rushing with a touchdown performance a week ago would suggest he’ll be the hot hand to start this Sunday against the Chiefs. The Chiefs defense has not surrendered a lot of yards on the ground this season, but their 18^th ranked rush defense is allowing 4.7 yards per carry. This is one that might be a little off the radar, but I like Mason here; he looked very good last week, quick, elusive, and explosive. He should get first shot out of the gate and I would expect another solid performance. If you are weak at the RB spot, he could be a good start this week.

WR-Sammy Watkins

His 2014 season has not been a breakout thus far, but the kid has shown some flashes of great. Bills Quarterback Kyle Orton gives the position some stability and Watkins has benefitted with double digit targets in two of his last three games. The Jets defense is ranked 18^th versus the pass and it allows the 12^th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, including the 10^th most receptions and 8 touchdowns. Watkins is too great a talent for the Jets secondary; he’ll see plenty of opportunities and is a good bet to reach the end-zone. Start him this week.

WR-Mohamed Sanu

The Ravens may be on a roll coming off an impressive win over a stumbling Falcons team, but their secondary continues to get shreaded and surrender lots of yards (1,415 yards to WR-most allowed) and catches (112 receptions to WR-most allowed). With no AJ Green on Sunday, wide receiver Mohamed Sanu figures to see plenty of opportunities and could be in line for a big game. Since becoming the number one, Sanu is averaging 10 targets and nearly 6 receptions per game; he’s a must play.

TE-Zach Ertz

The Eagles tight end has yet to make much noise this season, but Sunday could be a big day for the Eagles pass catcher. Ertz faces a Cardinals defense this Sunday that allows the 7^th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, including 11.8 yards per reception. Ertz is greatly under-utilized, but if the Eagles can get him heavily involved on Sunday he could be hugely productive. I like his chances and would play him ahead of players like Jason Witten, Travis Kelce, Jared Cook, and Heath Miller

TE-Dwayne Allen

With the news of wide receiver Reggie Wayne OUT for Sunday, that just means more balls to go around for the healthy receivers, including tight end Dwayne Allen. The Colts tight end has been consistent this season and ranks in the top ten for fantasy. His matchup this week against a Steelers defense that allows the 9^th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends would suggest a nice day. Allen has scored in 5 of his teams’ 7 games and with the Steelers having allowed 4 touchdowns to tight ends so far this season, number 6 could be this week. Allen is a strong favorite this week, play him.

Week 8 Sleepers

WR-Davante Adams

The Packers offense has a good matchup this week in a game that figures to feature a lot of offense. The last couple of weeks Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has not needed to throw the ball a great deal to do significant damage. This Sunday could be different against a Saints team that is certainly capable of matching the Pack points for points. I am expecting Rodgers to put the ball in the air enough for Adams to see a nice share of targets; Adams is definitely a flex favorite this Sunday.

WR-Percy Harvin

Although there’s no real data to suggest Harvin could have a big Sunday, this is more gut feeling and trying to read between the lines. Harvin is an explosive talent, something the Jets offense has been in desperate need of; don’t expect Marty Mornhinweg to waste any time getting Harvin involved. He could be a nice sneaky flex play this week.

That’s my take for week 8.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Evening Edition

October 18th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest 

Week 7 Starts/Sleepers

My Favorites for Sunday

The past several weeks I’ve been devoting a lot of my time focusing more on the one week fantasy leagues and taking a closer look at the weekly matchups. Heading into Sunday’s games, there a handful of matchups and plays I am favoring a great deal.

RB-Ben Tate

The Browns are coming off a big win over the Steelers last week, led by their ground game (158 yards rushing, 3 touchdowns) and running back Ben Tate. The Browns ball carrier has been rolling since he returned to action in week 5; Tate has 202 yards rushing and two rushing touchdowns in his last two games. This week with the Jaguars defense on the slate, Tate draws the league’s defense that allows the 4^th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including 7 total touchdowns. Ben is a must play today.

RB-Justin Forsett

The Ravens running back Justin Forsett has been solid all season and today gets a great matchup against the Falcons defense that allows the most yards rushing to opposing running backs and second most receptions this season. Forsett is coming off his first 100-yard rushing effort last week and with 23 receptions this season; he is the second leading receiver on the team. Forsett is a key cog in the Ravens offense and should be heavily involved on Sunday in a favorable matchup; get him in your lineup.

TE-Jordan Reed

A lot of folks like his skill set and physical ability, but his knock has always been his health. Reed is healthy this week and coming off a nice 8-catch, 92-yards receiving off 11 targets last week against the Cardinals. This Sunday Reed has a tasty matchup against the Titans defense that allows the 8^th most fantasy points, including 5 touchdowns to opposing tight ends. He’s a strong start today.

Week 7 Sleepers

RB-Jerick McKinnon

The Vikings running back will be making his second consecutive start today against a formidable Bills run defense, but his matchup could be a little more favorable than what most think. The Bills have done a good job against the run this season for the most part, but there have been signs of cracks in the armor. Running backs like Matt Forte, Lamar Miller, and George Winn all averaged more than four yards per carry against the Bills this season, suggesting that an elusive speedy back like McKinnon could have similar success. I like the Vikings rookie this Sunday if you are in great need at the position.

WR-Jermaine Kearse

With the sudden trade of wide receiver/return specialist Percy Harvin, the fallout in Seattle could be the rise of some hidden talent. Wide receiver Jermaine Kearse has shown great speed on special teams, but in a limited role on offense fantasy owners have yet to see his true potential. With Harvin gone, we could see a more expanded role for Kearse this week. I like the possibilities; he’s worth watching on Sunday.

That’s my take for week 7.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Evening Edition

September 27th, 2014 

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Night Quick Reads

Do the Numbers lie?

With bye weeks in effect for this Sunday’s slate of games, there are quite a few matchups worth paying close attention to and taking notes. As I survey all 11 games on Sunday and Monday nights matchup, I hear the numbers talking that fantasy owners should be listening to….

Fantasy owners looking for help in the backfield should be able to turn to Chargers running back Donald Brown for relief. The Chargers are thin at running back, so Brown figures to see the bulk of the work load on Sunday. He has a meaty matchup at home against the Jaguars and could be in for a nice day. The Jaguars are the worst defense in the league versus the run, allowing 160 yards per game and allow the most fantasy points against opposing running backs. Play Donald.

The Panthers are on the road this Sunday against the Ravens, but for wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin he could be making himself right at home facing a (Ravens) defense that has allowed the 5^th most receiving yards to opposing receivers. Through the first three weeks Benjamin has been targeted 27 times catching 16 balls, including two for scores. On Sunday he’ll be a busy Panther and should be solid play for fantasy owners. Start him if you got him.

It’s not a home game and it’s not road, but for Dolphins running back Lamar Miller his matchup against the Raiders could be a good game. Miller is coming off a 100-yard rushing effort in week 3 and this Sunday he faces the Raiders defense that ranks second to last against the run and is allowing the 7^th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. If fantasy owners are looking for a strong play, this has all the makings according to the numbers. Miller is worth starting.

That’s my take for week 4.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Evening Edition

September 26th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Talking Fantasy Strategy

Stash’em If You Got’em

After watching the Redskins tight end Niles Paul go down last night with a head injury (diagnosed with a concussion), fantasy owners should pay close attention to next week’s injury report and pick up tight end Jordan Reed. Reed is the natural starter in Washington, but has been out the past several weeks with a hamstring injury. He’s sounds likes he’s still a week away from returning, but when healthy he’s a dynamic pass-catching target in the passing game. He’s a target worth stashing if you have roster room.

Another target for fantasy owners looking for talent waiting to blossom is Vikings running back Jerick McKinnon. This one is a flier that fantasy owners will have to be patience with. McKinnon has play making ability the Vikings run game sorely needs, but he’s yet to see much action thus far this season. With current starter Matt Asiata averaging a paltry 3 yards per carry and just 81 yards on the ground, McKinnon’s time may come sooner rather than later’ stash him with lots of patience.

With the Rams on bye in week four, fantasy owners will have to wait and see what happens under center. The last call from head coach Jeff Fischer indicated he would turn the reigns back over to quarterback Shaun Hill when healthy; this despite the fact that 3^rd year quarterback Austin Davis has continued to improve. Davis is coming off a 327 passing yards, three touchdown effort in week 3 where he also completed better than 70% of his throws. His three touchdowns were his first of the season, but also a big indicator that Davis has potential. It will be interesting to see if the Rams move back with Hill or stay the course with Davis. In two quarterback leagues Davis may not be worth a deuce, but could be worth a stash.

In Cleveland I am liking the looks of running back Isaiah Crowell. In three games he’s averaging better than 5 yards per carry and has scored three touchdowns; the kid is productive. The Browns may have to looks of a crowded backfield with running backs Ben Tate and Torrance West included, which is why Crowell would definitely be worth stashing (if your lineup is not in dire need) at this time until fantasy owners see how the carries will be distributed. Crowell has been too good to linger on the bench for too long, stay patient and the rewards will come.

Just some of my takes for week 4.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Morning Edition

September 21st, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Gametime

Favorites for Week 3

It’s Sunday morning and time to set those line-ups for Week 3. This past week I have been looking at the numbers, reflecting back on some of the action I have been able to catch, and taking notes from around the many sites and shows covering fantasy football.

With all this information, I must know what I am doing right? Wrong, I would be just as confused as anyone, but fortunately it does not matter. I have fun playing fantasy football and in the grand scheme, that’s what matter. Of course winning is fun too!

The Four Horsemen

In week 3, if my hopes of winning rely on Bills quarterback EJ Manuel that might be a good thing. The Bills are off to a fast start 2-0, and with a home game scheduled today facing a west coast team, the chances are good they could be 3-0 by day’s end. Manuel intrigues me today, because he’ll face a defense that allows 8.2 yards per pass (tied for 5^th most) and has allowed the 5^th most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks. With his arms and legs in play, I believe Manuel is a sneaky play for week 3.

In the backfield I have been betting large on Colts running back Ahmad Bradshaw. He’s coming off a two-score performance last Monday night and has a prime matchup against Jacksonville. The Jaguars defense allows the most fantasy points to opposing running backs and has surrendered 5 total touchdowns to the position. Bradshaw is golden to be a solid play today.

Split out wide, my money today is on Texans wide receiver Andre Johnson. There was some speculation in the preseason about Johnson’s outlook; would he be traded, has he lost a step, is he on the decline. His 2014 campaign is not lighting any fires, but facing the Giants defense that allows the 5^th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers could help to ignite it. The Giants secondary has also surrendered 355 yards receiving to the position (5^th most), numbers that favor a strong outing for Johnson; play him with confidence.

At the tight end spot, I am rolling out with the Titans Delanie Walker. He’s had a strong start this season with 13 receptions for 179 yards and two scores. He’s facing a Bengals defense that allowed 10 receptions to the opposing tight end back in week 1. Walker may not need as many balls to do damage, but his 18 targets in two games suggest he’ll be a busy man on Sunday. I like one of those to come in the red zone for pay dirt. Walker is my play at tight end today.

These are my Sunday takes for week 3.

~David Ortega