FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Night Edition
November 9th 2019

DFS Saturday

It’s almost Sunday of NFL Week 10, and there are a lot of good matchups and ways to go with when building your lineups. The first place I am starting has to be the prime Fantasy matchup between the Buccaneers and the Cardinals; the over-under is set at 54 points.

Both defenses rank near the bottom against the pass (Ari-29th, TB-32nd), so there should be and could be a plethora of points on Sunday.

Players of interest for those that may be considering, Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston will face a Cardinals defense that allows the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including 24 touchdowns (tied for most in the league). 

Getting the start this week, the Buccaneers running back Ronald Jones III will get a crack at the Cardinals defense that has allowed the 8th most rushing yards to opposing running backs, including 4.4 yards per carry.

On the other side, this may be a great week for Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray, who will face the Bucs defense that allows the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including 19 touchdowns (2nd most in the league).

What would also make a great stack and connection with Murray is wide receiver Christian Kirk. The Buccaneers defense allows the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. 

There are of course no guarantees when playing DFS, but I like my chances with these matchups on Sunday.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Night Edition

November 2nd 2019

Week 9 Fantasy Notes

By the Numbers

The Vikings Quarterback, Kirk Cousins is currently the Fantasy QB13, through 8 weeks, but over the past several weeks he’s been a little bit better. Over the past 4 weeks, Cousins has completed 78.4 percent of his passes (1st in the NFL), passed for 1,262 yards (3rd in the NFL), averaged 10.9 yards per pass (leads the NFL), all the while throwing 10 touchdowns (tied for most) with only one pick. In this span, Cousins is the Fantasy QB5, heading into a week 9 matchup against the Chiefs.

Quietly, through 8 weeks, the Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette is the Fantasy RB5. Fournette is averaging 98.9 rushing and another 32.9 yards receiving per game. In 8 weeks, Fournette has toted the rock 163 times (leads NFL) and caught 35 passes (ranks 4th in the league). With just one rushing touchdown in 8 games, Fournette is still the Fantasy RB5; a big second half of the season sounds likely.

It has been a down season, in a huge way for the Broncos offense, but one bright spot has been, second year wide receiver Courtland Sutton. Through 8 weeks, the Broncos pass catcher is the Fantasy WR13, with 39 receptions (ranks 13th among receivers), 636 yards receiving (ranks 8th among receivers), and 3 receiving touchdowns. His 10.6 yards per target ranks 10th among receivers with a minimum of 24 target. Sutton has been solid and consistent in the first half of the season, but with the pending quarterback change coming, it will be interesting to see how he performs.

Two surprises this season, but no longer secrets are tight end Darren Waller (Raiders) and Mark Andrews (Ravens). Out of the gate these two have made their names this season and by this time, we’ve all heard of them, so here’s what they are doing. In 7 games this season Waller is the fantasy TE3 and Andrews is the Fantasy TE6. Waller’s 46 receptions ranks 2nd among tight ends, while Andrews is 7th with 36 receptions. Andrews ranks 5th in the league among tight ends with 449 yards receiving, with Waller coming in at 4th with 496 receiving yards. These two are clearly top tight ends and should be strong going forward in the second half of the season.

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega

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Saturday Evening Edition
October 25th 2019

Week 8: Three Amigos

In several of my season long redraft leagues, I have to start minimum, three wide receivers, not including any flex spots. Looking ahead to Sunday’s matchup, Week 8, here are my “Three Amigos” (WRS) that I am rolling with;

WR-Chris Godwin, Buccaneers; The Bucs have a tough road matchup this week against a Titans defense that allows the 5th fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Nonetheless, the Bucs receiver Godwin (Fantasy WR2) has been nothing less than stellar this season, leading all fantasy receivers in fantasy points per game through his first six games. Godwin is averaging 7.16 receptions, 110.33 receiving yards, with 6 touchdowns (leads league), on 9 targets per game. Here are some more numbers to digest; Godwin is averaging 12.3 yards per target (3rd most minimum 20 targets) and 79.6 catch efficiency (3rd best, minimum 20 targets). He’s a strong play every week.

WR-Robert Woods, Rams; The Rams will face the Bengals on Sunday and while the overall numbers don’t seem to favor the passing game, digging a little deeper, I still like Woods. Looking at the matchup, the Bengals secondary has been vulnerable at times and overall their defense ranks last in the league. Woods (fantasy WR21) ranks second on the team averaging more than 8 targets per game and his 36 receptions ranks 13th in the league among wide receivers. After totaling 7 touchdowns in 2018, Woods has just one through seven games this season; Sunday feels like a touchdown game.

WR-DK Metcalf, Seahawks; The Seahawks rookie receiver has been seeing a steady every week, but has yet to have that breakout game. This week the Metcalf (fantasy WR39) will line up against a Falcons defense that has allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, including the 2nd most receiving yards and 10 receiving touchdowns. Metcalf is playing 76 percent of the team’s offensive snaps and ranks second on the team with 20 receptions and 389 receiving yards. Week 8 could be his breakout game.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Evening Edition
October 25th 2019

Fantasy Football Week 8

Eight weeks into fantasy football and now's the time to make bold moves, smart decisions, and decisive choices to secure your playoff slot or turn your season around. Now that we are just beyond the mid-point, these are a couple of moves I am making this week in my season-long redraft leagues.

“Pick-of-the-litter"

WR-Kenny Stills, Texans; With starting wide receiver Will Fuller (knee) out for a couple of games, Kenny Stills should slide into a starting role. Stills joined the team just before the start of the regular season, and in the short time has already shown a connection with quarterback Deshaun Watson. Injuries have slowed down Stills 2019 campaign, but he’s healthy and should be ready to go to fill in nicely for Fuller. Stills is coming off injury and in his first game back posted a 4-catch, 105 receiving yard effort on 5 targets. With Fuller sidelined, he should see a significant boost in targets and production over the coming weeks.

Dumpster-ville

RB-Duke Johnson, Texans; For fantasy football purposes only, I have dropped running back Duke Johnson (Fantasy RB36). With Carlos Hyde cemented as the team’s primary early down back, Johnson is not seeing enough work to hold onto, let alone insert into a lineup. In PPR scoring (1pt per reception), since week 2 his games are as follows; 3.1, 2.4, 7.8, 6.7, 11.4, and 5.6 (6.2 average). With this kind of production, he’s a low value flex at best, and probably not worth holding on limited roster sizes.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Morning Edition
October 20th 2019

Sunday Morning Gametime

Top Targets

The Top 10 Targets in 2019

Running Back Leaders

Name  Targets / Rec
Austin Ekeler 45 / 42
Christian McCaffrey 44 / 35
David Johnson 41 / 30
Alvin Kamara (O) 39 / 33
James White 39 / 31
Chris Thompson 38 / 27
Leonard Fournette 36 / 26
Le'Veon Bell 33 / 28
Royce Freeman 31 / 25
Tarik Cohen 31 / 20

Wide Receivers Leaders

Name  Targets / Rec
Cooper Kupp 69 / 45
Michael Thomas 67 / 53
Keenan Allen 59 / 40
Tyler Boyd 59 / 40
Julian Edelman 56 / 38
DeAndre Hopkins 56 / 40
Mike Evans 55 27
Chris Godwin 54 43
Courtland Sutton* 54 36
Odell Beckham Jr 54 29

Tight Ends Leaders

Name  Targets / Rec
Travis Kelce* 57 38
Zach Ertz  54 / 33
Austin Hooper 50 / 42
Evan Engram 48 / 33
Mark Andrews 47 / 34
Darren Waller 42 / 37
Greg Olsen 38 / 22
George Kittle 37 / 31
Delanie Walker 31 / 21
Gerald Everett 31 / 20

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega