FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Evening Edition

September 27th, 2014 

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Night Quick Reads

Do the Numbers lie?

With bye weeks in effect for this Sunday’s slate of games, there are quite a few matchups worth paying close attention to and taking notes. As I survey all 11 games on Sunday and Monday nights matchup, I hear the numbers talking that fantasy owners should be listening to….

Fantasy owners looking for help in the backfield should be able to turn to Chargers running back Donald Brown for relief. The Chargers are thin at running back, so Brown figures to see the bulk of the work load on Sunday. He has a meaty matchup at home against the Jaguars and could be in for a nice day. The Jaguars are the worst defense in the league versus the run, allowing 160 yards per game and allow the most fantasy points against opposing running backs. Play Donald.

The Panthers are on the road this Sunday against the Ravens, but for wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin he could be making himself right at home facing a (Ravens) defense that has allowed the 5^th most receiving yards to opposing receivers. Through the first three weeks Benjamin has been targeted 27 times catching 16 balls, including two for scores. On Sunday he’ll be a busy Panther and should be solid play for fantasy owners. Start him if you got him.

It’s not a home game and it’s not road, but for Dolphins running back Lamar Miller his matchup against the Raiders could be a good game. Miller is coming off a 100-yard rushing effort in week 3 and this Sunday he faces the Raiders defense that ranks second to last against the run and is allowing the 7^th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. If fantasy owners are looking for a strong play, this has all the makings according to the numbers. Miller is worth starting.

That’s my take for week 4.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Evening Edition

September 26th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Talking Fantasy Strategy

Stash’em If You Got’em

After watching the Redskins tight end Niles Paul go down last night with a head injury (diagnosed with a concussion), fantasy owners should pay close attention to next week’s injury report and pick up tight end Jordan Reed. Reed is the natural starter in Washington, but has been out the past several weeks with a hamstring injury. He’s sounds likes he’s still a week away from returning, but when healthy he’s a dynamic pass-catching target in the passing game. He’s a target worth stashing if you have roster room.

Another target for fantasy owners looking for talent waiting to blossom is Vikings running back Jerick McKinnon. This one is a flier that fantasy owners will have to be patience with. McKinnon has play making ability the Vikings run game sorely needs, but he’s yet to see much action thus far this season. With current starter Matt Asiata averaging a paltry 3 yards per carry and just 81 yards on the ground, McKinnon’s time may come sooner rather than later’ stash him with lots of patience.

With the Rams on bye in week four, fantasy owners will have to wait and see what happens under center. The last call from head coach Jeff Fischer indicated he would turn the reigns back over to quarterback Shaun Hill when healthy; this despite the fact that 3^rd year quarterback Austin Davis has continued to improve. Davis is coming off a 327 passing yards, three touchdown effort in week 3 where he also completed better than 70% of his throws. His three touchdowns were his first of the season, but also a big indicator that Davis has potential. It will be interesting to see if the Rams move back with Hill or stay the course with Davis. In two quarterback leagues Davis may not be worth a deuce, but could be worth a stash.

In Cleveland I am liking the looks of running back Isaiah Crowell. In three games he’s averaging better than 5 yards per carry and has scored three touchdowns; the kid is productive. The Browns may have to looks of a crowded backfield with running backs Ben Tate and Torrance West included, which is why Crowell would definitely be worth stashing (if your lineup is not in dire need) at this time until fantasy owners see how the carries will be distributed. Crowell has been too good to linger on the bench for too long, stay patient and the rewards will come.

Just some of my takes for week 4.

~David Ortega

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Sunday Morning Edition

September 21st, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Gametime

Favorites for Week 3

It’s Sunday morning and time to set those line-ups for Week 3. This past week I have been looking at the numbers, reflecting back on some of the action I have been able to catch, and taking notes from around the many sites and shows covering fantasy football.

With all this information, I must know what I am doing right? Wrong, I would be just as confused as anyone, but fortunately it does not matter. I have fun playing fantasy football and in the grand scheme, that’s what matter. Of course winning is fun too!

The Four Horsemen

In week 3, if my hopes of winning rely on Bills quarterback EJ Manuel that might be a good thing. The Bills are off to a fast start 2-0, and with a home game scheduled today facing a west coast team, the chances are good they could be 3-0 by day’s end. Manuel intrigues me today, because he’ll face a defense that allows 8.2 yards per pass (tied for 5^th most) and has allowed the 5^th most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks. With his arms and legs in play, I believe Manuel is a sneaky play for week 3.

In the backfield I have been betting large on Colts running back Ahmad Bradshaw. He’s coming off a two-score performance last Monday night and has a prime matchup against Jacksonville. The Jaguars defense allows the most fantasy points to opposing running backs and has surrendered 5 total touchdowns to the position. Bradshaw is golden to be a solid play today.

Split out wide, my money today is on Texans wide receiver Andre Johnson. There was some speculation in the preseason about Johnson’s outlook; would he be traded, has he lost a step, is he on the decline. His 2014 campaign is not lighting any fires, but facing the Giants defense that allows the 5^th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers could help to ignite it. The Giants secondary has also surrendered 355 yards receiving to the position (5^th most), numbers that favor a strong outing for Johnson; play him with confidence.

At the tight end spot, I am rolling out with the Titans Delanie Walker. He’s had a strong start this season with 13 receptions for 179 yards and two scores. He’s facing a Bengals defense that allowed 10 receptions to the opposing tight end back in week 1. Walker may not need as many balls to do damage, but his 18 targets in two games suggest he’ll be a busy man on Sunday. I like one of those to come in the red zone for pay dirt. Walker is my play at tight end today.

These are my Sunday takes for week 3.

~David Ortega

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Saturday Evening Edition

September 20th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Night Quick Reads

Do the Numbers lie?

Looking at Sunday’s matchups there are a lot of key matchups to take note, but you also can’t forget to pay attention to what the numbers are saying. With 20 line-ups on tap to set for Sunday week 3, I am looking for any and every parcel of information that will help me find the strongest plays.

When I look at all of my matchups, I am hoping the numbers don’t lie….

The Colts will invade swamp country on Sunday when they face the Jaguars in Jacksonville and running back Ahmad Bradshaw could be looking to do some serious damage. The Jaguars defense is ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs and their four rushing touchdowns allowed this season are most in the league. Bradshaw is coming off an 18 touch performance last Monday that produced 5 receptions, 96 total yards of offense and two scores. This is a great matchup for Bradshaw, he’s a week 3 must play!

The Cleveland Browns defense was stung last week for 10 catches and two scores by Saints tight end Jimmy Graham. This Sunday the Ravens tight end Dennis Pitta is not quite the same caliber player as Graham, but in week one Pitta posted his own 10 catch game. The Browns allow the 7^th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and Pitta with his 19 targets in two games could be in for a big day on Sunday. He’s a favorite for Week 3.

If you are looking deep on your roster and you come across the Bills wide receiver Sammy Watkins, if you have not started him yet this Sunday could be the time to do just that. Watkins is coming off a strong week 2 performance; 8 catches on 11 targets for 117 yards and a touchdown. Watkins will face the Chargers defense in week 3, the same defense that has allowed 7^th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Watkins is a playmaker and could be geared to make more plays on Sunday; he’s a strong week 3 flex play.

The Chargers are making the long distance travel across country to face the Bills on Sunday in week 3, even though they are good team this could be a tough matchup. The Chargers defense allows the 10^th most fantasy points and facing running backs CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson offers no comfort. Spiller has yet to breakout this season and Jackson too has been quiet, but the two could be in for a big day of production against the Bolts. The Chargers have allowed more than 230 yards of offense, 16 receptions (2^nd most allowed) and three touchdowns to running backs; Spiller and Jackson are on track for a productive Sunday.

The Chiefs defense has been a mere shadow of itself from a year ago and the timing could not be any better for Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill and Company. The Chiefs secondary is allowing the 3^rd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including 5 touchdowns (tied for most in the league) and zero interceptions. With safety Eric Berry already ruled out, the matchup just gets better for Tannehill and wide receiver Mike Wallace (19 targets in 2014). Tannehill is coming off a tough loss against the Bills in week 2, so he and Wallace will look to get back on track this Sunday. In deeper leagues both could be sneaky plays for week 3.

These are more of my takes for week 3.

~David Ortega

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Wednesday Evening Edition

September 17th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Don’t Hit the Snooze Button

My Week 2 Sleepers

Week 3 starts in less than 24 hours, so like all fantasy owners we need to be quick to the wire if we are to make any worthy pickups that count; but who to grab?

After watching a lot of football last Sunday, one player that jumped out at me in the earlier games was the Bills rookie wide receiver Sammy Watkins. I really wasn’t expecting a lot from the kid this season, but he’s a superior talent and has clearly separated himself from the other receivers on the squad. Watkins leads the team with 15 targets this season, including last weeks 11 when caught 8 passes for 117 yards and a score. This week Watkins and company host a Chargers defense that allows the 7^th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. This is a good matchup for Watkins; if he’s available he needs to be owned and could be a strong flex or WR3 play this Sunday.

Like the Bills rookie wide receiver, the Texans have a young rising star in wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. The 2^nd year wideout has had a nice start to his 2014 campaign recording 7 receptions for 111 yards and two touchdowns. Hopkins is second on the team with 10 targets and has already developed a nice rapport with quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. This week’s matchup against a Giants defense that allows the 5^th most fantasy points to opposing wide receiver is a prime matchup and great opportunity for Hopkins to breakout. He’s also a nice flex or WR3 play for week 3.

Now here’s an opportunity play that I am feeling real good about. With the Bengals looking at a week 4 bye, it would only make sense to sit an ailing A.J. Green. Fantasy owners will have to wait for the updates and see if Green sits or plays. If Green is sidelined, I like wide receiver Mohamed Sanu to pick up the slack. The Bengals will play host to Tennessee this week and the Titan’s secondary has been good thus far this season. But last week, the Cowboys number receiver posted big numbers and with Green out I like Sanu to play that same role. With Green sidelined in week 2, Sanu only targeted four times was very effective totaling 3 receptions for 84 yards and a touchdown. If it’s Sanu and no Green, I would expect more of the same this week; he could be a low-end WR2 or WR3.

That’s my take for week 3.

~David Ortega