FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 7th, 2011 Friday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

Ryan Grant Cleared to Play
The James Starks (210 yards rushing) ERA could be put on hold for a bit with running back Ryan Grant cleared to play Sunday against the Falcons. For the better part of this young season Starks has looked like the dominant runner, until the old Grant showed up in week 3 (92 yards on 17 carries). Last week Grant was held out of action with a bruised kidney injury, but this Sunday he makes his return. His return and presence will affect Starks playing time, so fantasy owners should be advised if rolling with Starks.

Hernandez on track to Play Sunday
The Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez has been practicing and appears to be ready to return to action this week; it was noted that Hernandez has been moving around the team facility without a limp. With the Patriots offense ranked number one in passing if Hernandez (14 receptions, 2 touchdowns) is active on Sunday, he is a must play against the Jets.

Manning’s Fire Keeps Growing
While big brother is sidelined this season with injury, the Giants quarterback Eli Manning is doing his best to carry the family name. In the past three weeks Manning has thrown eight touchdowns with just one pick. With the league’s 14th ranked pass defense (Cardinals) coming to town, Manning is looking to keep his fire burning.

Bradshaw Could see a big load on Sunday
The Giants are likely to be without running back Brandon Jacobs on Sunday when they face the Cardinals, with Jacobs out Ahmad Bradshaw is expected to see a larger work-load. Bradshaw is averaging better than five yards per carry, but has not carried the ball more than 15 times in any game this season; this Sunday that could change.

Daniels Figures to see More Action
With the Texans missing Andre Johnson this week against the Raiders, someone will have to step up in the passing game; tight end Owen Daniels. Daniels has been relatively quiet this season, although he does have 10 receptions over the past two weeks and has scored three times this season. On Sunday Daniels will face the Raiders 22nd ranked pass defense.

Garcon Could Be a Nice Play in Week 5
The Colts offense is beginning to show some signs of life and one of its most lively components is wide receiver Pierre Garcon. In the past two weeks Garcon has seen a total of 18 targets and has benefitted greatly; 218 yards receiving with two touchdowns. This week the Colts will face the Chiefs 15th ranked pass defense and Garcon figures to see plenty of chances in the pass game; he could be a nice flex in week 5.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY GAMETIME

October 2nd, 2011 Sunday

Sunday Morning Gametime

In a very short period 2011 has become not just the year of the quarterback, but the year of fantasy football. With scoring up all over the league, that can only mean one thing; more fantasy points all around. With the numbers up does it become more confusing than ever to know who to play or who to sit, perhaps, but you have to love it!

Watch-list

The Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has been off to a sizzling start this season and he will take his act on the road to Cincinnati today; even though he is facing the Bengals 5th ranked pass defense don’t expect him to cool down. The Saints running back Darren Sproles has been electric thus far this season, he should keep the sparks flying today against the Jaguars. The Packers may get their fourth win of the season today, but it could be a tough day on the ground for running back James Starks.

Today’s quick notes:

Saints wide receiver Marques Colston is expected to be on the field today returning from his collarbone injury; if he’s on the field he will be good to go and will likely figure in the plan. He’s not in line for a monster game, but could still fill in as a nice flex for fantasy owners.

Tom Brady and the Patriots are on the road today to face the Oakland Raiders, don’t expect this one to be low-scoring. The Patriots will be in for a slugfest with the last man standing the winner. In week one Brady tossed up a big five bills in the air, we could see that again today facing the Raiders 28th ranked pass defense. Fantasy owners should play all of the Patriots receivers and keep your eye on Ochocinco; this could be his breakout game.

The Eagles wide receiver Jeremy Maclin (hamstring) is expected to start today and could be in line for a rebound game. After his breakout week 2 performance, Maclin hit the snooze button last week against the Giants. The Niners are ranked a decent 16th against the pass, but Jackson on the other side, they don’t have the secondary to match up. As long as Vick stays upright, Maclin could get loose today.

The Texans defense has only recorded seven sacks through the team’s first three games. Houston’s secondary is going to have to worry about wide receiver Mike Wallaces’ speed, if Big Ben is give time, he could pick apart the secondary for big numbers. Wallace is sure to draw a lot of double teams downfield opening the middle for 2nd year receiver Antonio Brown, who has seen a steady share of targets through the first three weeks; he’s a safe WR3 or flex play today.


My Picks Today

My “Four Horsemen”

Last week was brutal with Philip Rivers, Michael Turner and DeSean Jackson all pulling the disappearing act. This week will be my turnaround.

Tom Brady; It’s tough to pick against the Patriots when coming off a loss, so I won’t. Brady could be in for a huge day today against the Raiders 28th ranked defense. Black Hole or not, I am looking for Tom to put the ball in the air often.

Adrian Peterson; The Vikings need to get in the win column and they won’t mess around trying to do anything but what they do best; give the rock to “All-Day.” Peterson should see plenty of work and should find the end-zone a couple of times.

Steve Johnson; The Bills offense has been high octane through the first three weeks and today against the Bengals I wouldn’t expect it to come down. Johnson has emerged as one of the leagues best receivers (Top 15) and today he will continue to showcase why.

Jimmy Graham; Brees loves his tightend and why not; Graham has been solid this season 14 receptions, including two scores. Last week the Jaguars allowed 10 receptions and nearly 100 yards receiving to the Panthers tight end; today could be a big day for Graham.

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 1st, 2011 Saturday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

Austin close, but will miss Sunday
We already knew that Austin would be sitting this Sunday against the Lions, but its good news for fantasy owners to hear that he is getting close. Austin said he could play in week 5, if the Cowboys had a game. The bad news with him sitting, the boys will be short-handed again and could see a lot of the same (as we saw on Monday night) from their make-shift receiving corp; not good for quarterback Tony Romo fantasy owners.

Vick expecting to Play on Sunday
The Eagles dynamic quarterback announced earlier this week he will be on the playing field this Sunday despite all of his recent injuries; should fantasy owners be worried? The Niners are stingy against the run this season, so the Eagles will have to throw, but fortunately for Vick fantasy owners they do not do a great job at getting after the quarterback (they are OK). Also, an anemic 49er offense will allow the Vick and the Eagles to be patient with the run and pass.

Newton coming down to Earth?
It’s funny, after his astronomical start this season, the prospects of Cam Newton continuing his electrifying play look more and more difficult with each week. After his struggles last week (even though the Panthers won) against the Jaguars last Sunday, he will be facing a tough Bears defense (8 sacks this season) that could present a lot of problems for him in the pocket. With players like Urlacher and Briggs bringing the heat, Newton could be looking at a long day; owners may want to reconsider their options.

McNabb looking to get out of the Gate
The Vikings are 0-3 and quarterback Donovan McNabb has only thrown two touchdown passes in his three starts. If things don’t turn around soon for McNabb, he will soon find himself holding a clip-board on the sideline. Fortunately for McNabb and the Vikings they will get the Chiefs (ranked 30th against the pass) defense on Sunday, that have allowed 13 pass plays of 20 yards or more. This won’t guarantee a huge fantasy day for McNabb (look for other options), but success in the air could compliment a big day from the Vikings ground game.

Starks gearing up to start against the Broncos.
The Packers will be without running back Ryan Grant on Sunday when they host Denver, but they will have James Starks who will likely be the featured back in their ground game. Before fantasy owners jump on board the Starks bandwagon, they had better take a look at last Sunday’s matchup between the Broncos and Titans; CJ2K was limited to only 21 yards on 13 carries. Johnson may be feeling the hangover from his hold-out, but then Starks is no CJ2K. Starks should still produce decent numbers (65-75 yards on the ground), but if you are looking for a big game, you might want to look elsewhere.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: TARGET PRACTICE

September 28th, 2011, Wednesday

Fantasy Football

Target Practice

In These Hands We Trust

In week 3 there were no hands better than the pair that comes with Patriots wide receiver Wes Welker. Against the Bills, Welker was targeted a league high 20 times in week 3 finishing the game with 16 catches and over 200 yards receiving. While Welker was raking in passes like crazy, Roddy White (Falcons) and Anquan Boldin (Ravens) were seeing many chances as well, but with a lot less success.

White only corralled 9 balls on 17 tries against the Buccaneers, while Boldin was less successful snagging only 7 of 14. The good news for owners, these two look like they have the confidence of their quarterbacks and should be strong candidates to rebound in week 4 with plenty more chances.

A couple of other receivers that have the confidence of their quarterbacks and could quickly become fantasy football household names include wide receiver Nate Washington (Titans), David Nelson (Bills), and Brandon Pettigrew (Lions).

Through the first three weeks of the season Washington (27 targets) and Nelson (27 targets) both rank in the Top 20. Pettigrew is not far off ranking fourth among tight ends with 22 targets. After last weeks’ breakout game against the Vikings with 11 receptions and 112 yards receiving, Pettigrew is quickly becoming a favorite of (Matthew) Stafford.

Top 10 in week 3

1. Wes Welker, Patriots (20 targets)
2. Roddy White, Falcons (17 targets)
3. Anquan Boldin, Ravens (14 targets)
4. Reggie Wayne, Colts (13 targets)
5. Andre Caldwell, Bengals (12 targets)
6. Eric Decker, Broncos (12 targets)
7. Andre Johnson, Texans (12 targets)
8. Michael Jenkins, Vikings (11 targets)
9. Calvin Johnson, Lions (11 targets)
10. 6 players tied at 10 targets

Radar Watch

If the Broncos can quarterback Kyle Orton to look downfield more, wide receiver Eric Decker could suddenly become a fantasy favorite. Decker was among the leaders in week 3 with 12 targets, but the results were only 7 catches for 48 yards. Like Decker, wide receiver Pierre Garcon is going to need more help from the quarterback position if he is going to improve on his 10 targets from week 3. Both look like diamonds in the rough just waiting to shine.

Tight end Todd Heap is healthy this season and was finally utilized a little more extensively in week 3 seeing 10 balls (targets) in his direction. Heap has shown lots of ability in the past, if quarterback Kevin Kolb can make more of an effort to get his tight end involved, Heap has the potential of being a fantasy gem going forward.

One of my waiver wire mentions this week is wide receiver Michael Jenkins (Vikings). He’s not going to suddenly break out of the gate in week 4, but his 17 targets are good indicator he’s one of McNabb’s favorite and will see a steady stream of passes in his direction every week.

My last mention here is Lions rookie wide receiver Titus Young. Last week he broke out with a nice 5 catch, 89-yard performance on seven targets. This week his 4 catches and 51 yards receiving might suggest a slight regression, but to the contrary Young was targeted eight times. As long as Young continues to see his share of throws, he’s going to get better; much better.

Top 10 through week 3 (unofficial)

1. Wes Welker, Patriots (43 targets)
2. Roddy White, Falcons (34 targets)
3. Andre Johnson, Texans (32 targets)
4. Reggie Wayne, Colts (32 targets)
5. Jason Witten, Cowboys (32 targets)
6. Brandon Marshall, Dolphins (31 targets)
7. Steve Smith, Panthers (31 targets)
8. Steve Johnson, Bills (30 targets)
9. Mike Thomas, Jaguars (30 targets)
10. Anquan Boldin, Ravens (28 targets)
11. Calvin Johnson, Lions (28 targets)
12. Darren Sproles, Saints (28 targets)

FSH NOTEBOOK: WATERCOOLER CHAT

September 28th, 2011, Wednesday

Watercooler Chat

Waiver Wire

The wide receiver position in fantasy leagues does not appear to be exceptionally deep this season, so if you are in search of help you may have to look high and low. Normally when looking high you might find depth with teams like the Saints and Patriots, but with both turning to their tight ends more in 2011, searching low may be the way to go.

One of the low places to look could be in Seattle where the Seahawks saw the return of their premiere wide out Sidney Rice. There is some concern at the quarterback position for fantasy owners with (Tarvaris) Jackson under center, but in Rice’s first game back he was targeted 10 times and caught eight passes for over 100 yards. Remember Jackson and Rice have some familiarity playing together in Minnesota and tat already appears to be apparent with two connecting often on Sunday. Rice may struggle to turn in those big games from week to week, but he looks to be a safe WR3 or flex with plenty of upside.

Another struggling passing game where owners may find some light could be in Minnesota with wide receiver Michael Jenkins. The former Falcon was never the go-to receiver, but he is showing lots of potential with the Vikings and is quickly becoming (Donovan) McNabb’s favorite target (17 targets this season ties for team lead). Surprisingly Jenkins is showing sure hands this season nabbing 15 of those targets and with his great speed he has big play capability. He’s a fantasy diamond in the rough, but if you are desperate for help he’s a low risk, high reward as a WR3 or flex play.

“Take of the Week”

There’s no question that if he’s available on the waiver wire, one of this weeks’ best take (out) is Packers running back James Starks. After a disappointing performance last Sunday against the Bears, Starks could be in line for a prime start against the Bronco’s shaky defense. The latest news reports are indicating running back Ryan Grant (bruised kidney) could miss week 4, if he misses that could open the door to a big game for Starks.


Watch List

With the loss of stud receiver Kenny Britt, the Titans have a big void to fill in their passing attack. This week the time inked a deal with former Rams receiver Donnie Avery. Now I am not saying Avery is the answer and will fill that void, but if Avery is healed from his past knee injuries, once he returns to football shape he could give the Titan’s their big-playmaker and deep threat they lost with Britt’s injury. And with a savvy veteran like (Matt) Hasselbeck under center, Avery’s fantasy status could also benefit.

Time for the ”dump”

The Raiders are playing good football at the moment, showing lots of balance with a strong ground game and steady passing attack. With all that is going well in Oakland, there seems to be a missing component or contributor to the success; wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey. DHB has hardly been in the mix and even with all the great speed he possesses, he just can’t seem to get out of the starting gate. In three weeks DHB has only caught five passes and was only targeted three times last Sunday (finished with one catch). As the Raiders continue to roll and get better, the more likely it appears DHB will be left behind. If you invested any confidence in Heyward-Bey this summer, now may be the time to part ways and look elsewhere for help at receiver.

Just My take.

By David Ortega