FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Edition

October 4th, 2013 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Friday’s Fixx

Well, it’s week 5 of the NFL and if you can believe this the Browns are 3-2 and sitting on top of the AFC North. This is definitely not something I would have predicted, nor would I have predicted that running back LeGarrette Blount would likely be starting for the Patriots this Sunday. I also would not have imagined dropping quarterback Eli Manning for Brian Hoyer (Browns); injured last night after throwing just four passes. Yeah, that move did not work out to well for me; darn injury.

With four teams on the bye this week (Buccaneers, Vikings, Steelers, and Redskins), there are plenty of moves left to be made and with that in mind, here are some that I would recommend…

Moves to Make:

Start Philip Rivers

If you have quarterback Philip Rivers and have yet to buy into the recharged Charger, you need to play him. Rivers faces the Raiders this Sunday and will line up against a defense that allows the 9^th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and a better than 70 percent completions. Rivers is rolling this season (11 touchdowns) and should keep his fire burning on Sunday against Oakland.

Avoid Rams Running backs

There is too much cloud cover and confusion surround the Rams backfield. First of all the offense has been bad this season, in particular the run game. Until something evolves from the Rams ground attack that is worthy of watercooler chat, all Rams running backs should be avoided.

Start Knowshon Moreno

After watching Knowshon Moreno bounce back in week 4 with a solid performance against the Eagles, I have learned my lesson and he needs to be in my lineup every week, especially this week. The Cowboys defend the run well, but with the Broncos passing as well as they do I expect to see Moreno finding plenty of room to run.

I like the Saints

One of the biggest surprises this season has been the Saints defense. The Saints defense is ranked 6^th overall (22^nd versus the run, 5^th against the pass) and they are playing very well at the moment. The defense has created 10 turnovers and recorded 12 sacks (tied for 12^th) thus far and will really test the Bears offensive line (only 6 sacks allowed this season). I am expecting Rob Ryan to dial up plenty of pressure on Sunday; I am starting the Saints.

That’s my take.

~David Ortega

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Sunday Edition

September 29th, 2013 

 

David’s Daily Digest

(Week 4) Sunday Notes

It’s Game-Day again and after four weeks, you would think this would get easier. It does and it doesn’t, just with three weeks of data to sort through things can get a little confusing. So with today’s kickoff only hours away, I have a few notes and opinions I will share regarding today’s matchups.

First, let’s start at the top with the quarterbacks. With 15 line-ups set for this week, I have had a chance to consider many, but when setting my perfect line-up there’s only one that fits; Peyton Manning. There’s little doubt anyone would be sitting Peyton today, but let me add a couple of names to the top of this list to consider.

The Cowboys are traveling to San Diego today and I really like quarterback Tony Romo’s matchup. The Chargers allow the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and Romo is coming off a strong week 3 performance. And with wideout Miles Austin OUT, I expect to see Romo really work to get the ball into the hands of his wide receiver Dez Bryant; Chargers allow the 6^th most fantasy points to wide receivers.

In  a game abroad that offers little interest, I expect to see plenty of fantasy influence in the Vikings-Steelers matchup. Other than running back Adrian Peterson, the Vikes really have little fantasy appeal, but with quarterback Matt Cassel under center, the results could be interesting (interesting, not favorable).

On the other side however, I think the matchup for quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is favorable. Big Ben will face the Vikes secondary that allows the 12^th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, as well as the second most passing touchdowns this season (only the Rams are worse). Big Ben is also coming off a huge Sunday night showing a week ago, so he and his favorite target wide receiver Antonio Brown (13 targets last week) could be looking for an encore performance. To note, the Vikings are tied for the 9^th most receptions allowed to opposing wide receivers.

Speaking of the wide receiver position, I will be sitting Andre Johnson today. He’s a little banged up and I really don’t like his matchup this week against the Seahawks. That doesn’t mean quarterback Matt Schaub won’t try to get him the ball and that he won’t have a nice out-put, but I do think if he’s lining up against defensive back Richard Sherman, tight end Owen Daniels (start) and wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (flex start) could see an increase in looks today. Another busy Texan in the pass game could be running back Arian Foster. I am hearing some folks shying away from Foster, but I think he’s a start for you in PPR leagues.

Moving along to a couple of final notes for today, I am staying away from the Broncos Defense; too much offense and too many plays. Even if the Broncos get up big, the second half could be a lot of garbage time filled with a lot of yards and some late scores.

Lastly, for today’s matchups I have quarterback Tom Brady in one of my perfect lineups. Manning is the safe pick of course, but we can’t forget about Tom Terrific. All of the great things we say about Manning time and time again apply to Tom as well. Brady is without a running game, he’s on the road in a dome tonight; it just feels like a matchup where we could see him throw for a ton. The Falcons also do allow the 11^th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and have surrendered 7 touchdowns; keep an eye on wide receiver Aaron Dobson. If you are thin and desperate, he could be a nice sleeper play this week.

That’s my take.

~David Ortega

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Friday Edition

September 20th, 2013 

David’s Daily Digest

Week 3 “Man-Crushes”

With two weeks in the books, fantasy owners have an opportunity to really evaluate numbers, trends, and tendencies, but best of all we can use our eyes to determine who we like, who looks good, and who we should forget.

While it may be too early to be so permanent with our analysis I would like to offer my weekly “Man-Crushes.”

I can be fickle at times and a little choosey, but I do consider myself to be quite faithful (are we still talking about fantasy football?).  Looking over the week 3 matchups I see several crushes that I endorse, and it’s not all about looks.

The Falcons travel to Miami on Sunday and with (WR) Roddy White (ankle) still dealing with an injury, my crush on (WR) Julio Jones is huge. Even if White were healthy I still like Jones and believe it’s his time. Last week he turned in a huge performance with 11 grabs for 182 yards; fantasy owners can expect another big day.

The San Diego Chargers have been one of the early surprises this season offensively and with quarterback Philip Rivers suddenly rejuvenated, my crush is on tight end Antonio Gates. Last week the Chargers wily veteran caught 8 passes for more than 100 yards. Sunday Gates will face a defense that allows the 13^th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, including two touchdowns. Gates will be one of Rivers go-to and should find the end-zone against the Titans.

In Washington the Redskins will be at home this week and with the Lions 15^th ranked pass defense coming to town I have a huge crush on wide receiver Pierre Garcon. The Lions have been pretty good against opposing receivers, but this week on the road I am expecting different results. Garcon is also coming off his best game of the season thus far, so I expect to see him carry this momentum into Sunday.

A couple more notable crushes for Sunday; I like quarterback Matthew Stafford this week on the road, throwing for a lot of yards. He may not get the win, but he’ll post nice numbers. I also like the 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick who should bounce back with a strong Sunday. On the road this week, the Cardinals will have to throw a ton to keep pace with the Saints, as a result I like wide receiver Andre Roberts this week. Running back Frank Gore was stuffed in week two against the Seahawks, but this week he’s not playing the Hawks (playing the Colts). I like a bounce back game for Gore.

These are just a couple of my “Man-Crushes” for week 3.

That’s my take.

~David Ortega

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Thursday Edition

September 19th, 2013 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Thursday’s Thoughts

I don’t spend too much free time doing too much thinking, but for some reason when Thursday lands my mind is lost in space and filled with thought (mostly fantasy football stuff, but it still counts).

That’s right, I spend a moment or several every Thursday (during football season) scouting my league line-ups and looking at the game matchups for the NFL Network’s Thursday Night Matchup. And this week they have got a great one. Head Coach Andy Reid and his Kansas City Chiefs will travel to Philadelphia to face his former team; and I don’t think any of them will be inviting him over for dinner.

The Chiefs are off to a great start at 2-0, and although they are facing a questionable Philly defense this road test could still be a big one. Chiefs Quarterback Alex Smith has been efficient, but he’ll need to be a little more than that Thursday if the Chiefs are to match the high-octane Eagles offense led by Michael Vick.

I think this matchup has a lot of interesting sub-plots and twists, and one thing it won’t be lacking is excitement. The Eagles offense has been explosive averaging 33 points per game and I think fantasy owners can confidently play their Eagles starters in Thursday Nights’ contest; (RB) LeSean McCoy, (WR) DeSean Jackson, (TE) Brent Celek, and Vick. For those in deeper leagues (14-16 teams) sitting in a tough spot this week, (WR) Jason Avant (10 targets) and (RB) Bryce Brown (13 touches) could be possible considerations in a flex spot (you have to be real desperate).

The Chiefs don’t offer as much charm and appeal to fantasy owners as the Eagles, but matched up against one of the leagues’ worst pass defenses lends itself some options. Running back Jamaal Charles is always a no-brainer (and Thursday he looks real good), but consider wide receiver Dwayne Bowe a must start for deep leagues and even standard. Looking across the Chiefs side of the ball, even (WR) Donnie Avery offers some value (not a lot, but some as a flex).

Smith is definitely a consideration this week, especially in deeper leagues. He’s a preferred play over quarterbacks like Josh Freeman, Ben Roethlisberger (442 yards passing), Jay Cutler (3 picks this season), Ryan Tannehill (2 TDs this season) and Brandon Weeden (OUT).

This was just what I was thinking.

That’s my take.

~David Ortega

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Saturday Edition

September 15th, 2013 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Today’s Line-ups: Thoughts and Notes

The biggest question I have going today is wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals). I suspect that Fitz will play, but the Cards don’t kick-off until 1:05 pm (PST). I like many fantasy owners will have to make a tough decision today. If I can afford to wait until kickoff time to make the call, I’ll wait. Come on, it’s Fitz. This kid is golden if he plays.

Since I am in a bit of a conundrum (I actually can’t wait) I am going to make a change and my suggestion is, so if you are not looking at players like Brandon Marshall and A.J. Green to substitute with maybe you should too.

In many leagues, I was affected greatly by the Vick Ballard season ending injury, this is because I own Ahmad Bradshaw (in several leagues). While Bradshaw is catapulted into the lead role this week he’s still only an RB2/3, especially this week (so I don’t have him starting in all leagues). The Dolphins have a legit defense and his numbers on the ground could be curtailed, so in one league I am starting running back Frank Gore over Bradshaw; a tough matchup as well, but Gore has had success in the past (has rushed for over 80 in two of last three starts versus Seahawks).

The Broncos offense led by quarterback Peyton Manning blew up last week with just about everyone pitching in, everyone except wide receiver Eric Decker (just two catches). My favorite start here is Demaryrius Thomas, who I think will be Manning’s go-to-receiver today, but I believe Decker (7 targets in week 1) fantasy owners should relax because he will get his chances just as he did last week. I would expect 60-70 yards and a score for Mr. Decker in what will likely be another sprint-a-thon for the Broncos aerial attack.

One last thought, quarterback Carson Palmer was probably not drafted as a starter in most leagues, but after one week I am saying he should be starting. Palmer has not had this talented a receiving bunch since his days in Cincinnati. In week one he played very well on the road and I anticipate the same from him today at home. I have him penciled in several lineups today.

These are just a few of my thoughts and notes for today’s Week two matchups.

That’s my take.

~David Ortega