FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

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September 4th, 2022

Sunday Afternoon Edition

My Fantasy Football RB Rankings

I am just hours away from my next fantasy draft and just looking over some of the Running Backs I will targeting. With that in mind here's my Running Back rankings for the Top-25;

1. Jonathan Taylor

2. Derrick Henry

3. Christian McCaffrey

4. Dalvin Cook

5. Austin Ekeler

6. Najee Harris

7. Joe Mixon

8. Aaron Jones

9. D'Andre Swift

10. Nick Chubb

11. Saquon Barkley

12. Alvin Kamara

13. Leonard Fournette

14. Javonte Williams

15. James Conner

16. Ezekiel Elliott

17. Breece Hall

18. David Montgomery

19. Elijah Mitchell

20. Cam Akers

21. Travis Etienne Jr.

22. Josh Jacobs

23. AJ Dillon

24. Damien Harris

25. Antonio Gibson

 

I'm not shaking things up too much in the fantasy football world with my personal rankings here, as most of my rankings mirror most of the consensus, but I do have a few variations.

My first is the Titans running back Derrick Henry. I have been seeing a few PPR rankings with Henry as low as 6th, but even with his low receiving totals, the Titans workhorse should see more than enough volume to keep him in the top fantasy RB conversation.

My next notable rank is the Packers running back Aaron Jones ranked 8th overall, and I think I could be low on him. With the departure of Davante Adams, it is conceivable that Jones could be in line to be the team's leading receiver. He's never tallied more than 68 targets in any one season, in his five seasons with the Pack, but being the exceptional pass catcher that he is, it's very much possible he could see as many as 100 targets in 2022.

Perhaps one of the more interesting players in my top 25, coming in at 22 is the Raiders Josh Jacobs. Last season Jacobs finished as the 12th fantasy running back and in 2020 he was even better finishing in the 8th spot (PPR total scoring). My ranking of 22 may be a bit too low for Jacobs, who could be looking at another productive season in a Raiders offense that could put up a lot of points this season.

At the tail-end of my top-25 I have the Commanders Antonio Gibson. Unfortunate circumstances have given his fantasy production prospect new life, but his time in the sun as the starter could be limited. Draft with caution.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 3rd, 2022
Saturday Mid-night Edition

My Fantasy Football QB Rankings

With two drafts left before the start of the 2022 season, here are my Quarterback rankings for the top 15;

1. Josh Allen
2. Patrick Mahomes
3. Justin Herbert
4. Lamar Jackson
5. Tom Brady

6. Kyler Murray
7. Aaron Rodgers
8. Joe Burrow
9. Russell Wilson
10. Dak Prescott

11. Matthew Stafford
12. Jalen Hurts
13. Derek Carr
14. Trey Lance
15. Kirk Cousins 

I think after his impressive 2020 and 2021 campaigns, the Bills quarterback Josh Allen is the consensus number one. He's a lock to have another big season, but I am not so fast to discount the Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

Only a few years ago Mahomes was considered the gold standard. Sure with a couple of personnel changes in the off-season, the loss of wide receiver Tyreek Hill might have fantasy owners nervous, but the Chiefs signal caller will still have plenty of weapons and head coach Andy Reid.

I expect a rejuvenated and bounce back season for the Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson who is bigger and stronger this season, which is why I have him ranked at four. 

Despite his age, the Goat, Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady comes in at my number five rank. His age does not concern my, but the addition of receivers Russell Gage and Julio Jones does intrigue me.

Going through my ranking list I need to see more from quarterbacks Jalen Hurts and Trey Lance before I can slot them higher. While I am not nearly as high on the kids as others, I have a lot of confidence in the old guys, quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers (ranked 7th) and Russell Wilson (ranked 9th).

Wilson is with a new team in Denver and has plenty of weapons to be a top-10 fantasy quarterback. Even though Rodgers will be without his favorite and most reliable target with the departure of receiver Davante Adams, the four-time MVP is good enough to raise the level of play of the talent around him.

That's my take!
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 2nd, 2022
Friday Late-Evening Edition

2022 Fantasy Football Draft: Avoid List

Four drafts completed and there is still more fun to come. With a couple of drafts left on my slate and having four under my belt, there are lessons to be learned and always more mistakes to be made. This is what makes Fantasy drafts fun, you won't know the answer until all of the dust settles in 18 weeks.

After running through a couple of 12-team drafts (one PPR, one Auction) and a couple of deep roster marathons, including a 4-hour running clock online, the trick was not only seeking out those potential fantasy gems, but also having the savvy to avoid the potential busts for 2022.

Let's be honest, it's a crap shoot, so a lot of this is book-cover reading, but there's a lot to read there so you're not always far off.

My first avoid on my list is Colts quarterback Matt Ryan. Again, just reading the book cover and did not like what I saw in this preseason. Ryan may end up having a decent season, and even putting together a couple of top 10 weeks, but I don't see him cracking the top 12 overall for the season.

Another quarterback that I will be looking to avoid this season is the Titan's Ryan Tannehill. Like Ryan, Tannehill is a solid starter, but the Titans offense is heavy run with Derrick Henry and with the team drafting rookie quarterback Malik Willis, it's just a matter of time before he gets his shot on the big stage and takes the job. I am avoiding this situation all together.

The Broncos tight end situation is one I will be avoiding this season. While 3rd year tight end Albert Okwuegbunam is the penciled in starter, there have been some rumblings about the team's rookie tight end Greg Dulcich could push Albert O for opportunities on the field. While Albert O is not completely cemented on my avoid list, I won't be risking any significant draft capital on the 3rd year tight end this season.

Two more avoids I have on my list is the Steelers wide receiver Chase Claypool and the Bills receiver Jamison Crowder. In my opinion, Claypool is a talent, but with unproven quarterback Mitchell Trubisky under center, and Diontae Johnson the primary receiver in Steel Town, I don't have a lot of confidence drafting Claypool in any standard leagues; he'll be a wait and see potential waiver option. The same can be said about Crowder who will likely see work in four-receiver sets, but he's going to be too far down the pecking order for me to trust with any draft capital. I'll wait and see if he can pan out as an in season waiver pick up.

That's my take!
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

 

August 27th, 2022
Saturday Afternoon Edition

2022 Fantasy Football Draft Targets

With the start of the 2022 Fantasy Season less than two weeks fantasy owners that have yet to draft or still have a few left to complete, have to be thinking about what players to take and which players to avoid.

With one draft already under my belt and another just around the corner (less than 24 hours), I am looking at my list of players to take and players to pass on. I've been mocking drafting a lot, so I think I have good sense of where some players may be early and late in drafts.

So let's start with my targets. I am currently prepping for a 12-team draft and will be picking in the 3rd slot. I've been working on a strategy out of the gate; being at the top end of the draft I am looking for running backs out of the gate. Picking 3rd, I am extremely excited about taking Vikings running back Dalvin Cook. I believe his increased involvement in the passing could pay huge dividends in PPR formats.

As I hit the mid-early rounds, I am looking at wide receivers. Right off the top of my list I am trying to get a piece of the Broncos aerial attack. With the addition of quarterback Russell Wilson, his arrival immediately elevates wideouts Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. Just like Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf in Seattle were, both Sutton and Jeudy can be fantasy studs in Denver.

These are just a few twists and turns I am looking to take early in drafts, but as I progress through the mid-rounds (7-11) here are a few wideouts that I am targeting because of their potential upside. Wide receivers Christian Kirk, Allen Lazard, Kadarius Toney, and Devante Parker are all talented wideouts that could easily become the team's leading receiver and demand the lion's share of targets.

Through these same rounds, but at the front end a couple of running backs that I am eyeing for their upside potential are the Texans Dameon Pierce (starter), the Commanders Brian Robinson Jr (potential starter), and the Lions Jamaal Williams (back-up). I believe all three will have opportunities to be productive in their respective backfields and serve well as solid RB3 and/or flex plays.

There are no hot takes here, just my short list of a few targets I feel good about in 2022. Navigating a draft can be tough, so hopefully these players will provide some needed value at the right time and pay big dividends this season.

That's my take!
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 25th, 2022
Thursday Night Edition

Draft Day Has Returned

With the 2022 Fantasy Football season just two weeks away from kick-off, all across the country Draft days are taking place and on the clock. Stock the fridges, pick up a fantasy magazine, and print out your cheatsheet, it's time to make a pick.

Fantasy football is a special time of the year, where excitement, anticipation, and suspense collide. I myself will be participating in at least five drafts this year, maybe six (haha), sometimes you just can't get enough. 

Draft number one has already concluded and I have a few notes to share, not exactly hot takes or golden nuggets, but a few takeaways. Draft one is considered the big league of my neighborhood leagues (I play in 5 total) and probably the most fun. It's only a 10-team, but has the most cash involved and without question has the best league chemistry; a great bunch of guys who really enjoy fantasy and talking some good old fashioned trash.

This year I drew the second slot (every year we hold a draft lottery to select your draft position - I chose two). At the top end of the draft my thinking was clear, one of the available hero running backs (Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Najee Harris, Christian McCaffrey, and Austin Ekeler), Jonathan Taylor was a keeper held over from last season.

Here's my opinion on this group, I really don't believe there is a wrong pick here. The only one I have a slight reservation about is McCaffrey's durability, because of injuries suffered the past couple of seasons). Cook was the guy I wanted. I think his usage in the passing game will increase this season and he'll be a monster in 2022.

Some of my early targets were Keenan Allen in the 3rd (12th receiver off the board) and Darren Waller in the 4th (5th tight end selected). Allen was the best available and a back-end WR1, so I was happy with this selection. He's ceiling may be a little lower this season than in the past, but his floor is higher than most. 

A tight is not something I usually take early in drafts, but Waller fell to me in the 4th, so I grabbed him. With the arrival of Davante Adams, I think this could be a big bounce back season for Waller; reminiscence of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce in Kansas City.

In 8th round after filling out my line-up with two running backs, a tight end, quarterback, and three wide receivers I selected DeAndre Hopkins; a steal if you ask me. He'll be back in week 7 and could easily finish as a top-end WR1 over the last 11 weeks of the season.

In this home league we play IDP and carry deep rosters (35 players), but only go 30 players deep on draft day, with a 25 round draft with five defensive keepers.

My two favorite picks in this draft came in 14th (Brian Robinson Jr) and 15th rounds (Davante Parker). 

After watching the Commanders first preseason game, it became clear to me Robinson has a chance to steal the starting job in the backfield. This is only a 10-team league, so in deeper 12 & 14 team leagues Robinson is going to go much earlier, as early as round 11 or 10 (in my opinion).

Parker was a late snag, my 7th receiver taken, and a receiver that I believe has top end WR2 talent, if not higher. He's a risk for sure, but as late as I took him, very little capital wagered and worth the gamble. Based on when I took him, he could very well go undrafted in 12 team leagues.

This was just a little peek into what went down in my first draft, what my thoughts were, and what the draft value was for the players I selected. Based on this first go round, there was some value left on the table, some potential gems found, but most of all a fun drafted completed.

That's my take!
~David G. Ortega