FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Edition

October 27th, 2013

David's Daily Digest 

Week 8: Sunday Morning Gametime

With Sunday Kick-off just hours away, it’s never too early or too late to look over the numbers that can help fantasy owners make the right call or at least make a call and set their lineup. Injuries have played a huge role this season and with players still nursing and others returning, pulling the trigger on some can be scary.

This is my week 8 (short) laundry list of relevant numbers to consider when you make your decision to start or sit;

By the Numbers…

QB-Russell Wilson (Sea), in his last four starts Wilson has completed 68 of 114 passes (59.6%) for 825 yards passing with five touchdowns and two picks. Wilson has also added 269 yards rushing over the same span and has scored at least 16 fantasy points in five straight games.

My Take: He’s a safe start with middle of the road numbers.

QB-Andy Dalton (Cin), in his past two starts has passed for over 700 yards tossing six touchdowns with zero interceptions. Dalton is completing 67.5% of his passes (50 of 74 passing) over the past two weeks and has scored over 25 fantasy points in each of the last two games.

My Take: He’s on fire and needs to be played.

RB-Eddie Lacy (GB), the Packers running back has totaled 301 yards on the ground in his past three starts averaging 4.4 yards per tote. Lacy has one 100-yard game this season and nearly missed a second back in week 5 when he ran for 99 yards. He has also scored in double-digit fantasy points the past two weeks.

My Take: He’s a must play today, top 20 back today.

RB-Zac Stacy (STL), has ran for the ball for 210 yards in his last three starts averaging well over four yards per carry. Stacy has 49 carries over the past three weeks (16 per game) and is averaging over 10 fantasy points per game during that time.

My Take: Yards will be tough, but he should see a lot of work.

RB-Jacquiz Rodgers (ATL), has totaled 206 yards (91 yards rushing/115 yards receiving) of offense in his past three games. Rodgers has also scored four times (2 rushing/2 receiving) while adding 18 receptions on 19 targets. In his past  two starts he’s scored over 35 fantasy points.

My Take: Jackson will take away some of his touches, but Rodgers should stay involved as a low flex play.

WR-Demaryrius Thomas (DEN), his numbers aren’t off the charts, but he still producing modest numbers with 21 receptions (30 targets) for 303 yards receiving, and three touchdowns in his last four starts.

My Take: Even with all of his weapons, Manning still looks to DT often enough for him to be a weekly play. Be patient, he’ll bounce back.

TE-Jordan Reed (WAS), has quietly become a top 10 tight end. Reed has registered at least 5 receptions in each of his last three games and over his past two he’s collected 13 balls for 192 yards receiving with a score. His 298 yards receiving have him currently ranked 12^th among active tight ends.

My Take: A nice matchup today, Reed should continue to roll with solid numbers.

That's my take for Week 8.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Edition

October 26th, 2013

David's Daily Digest

Week 8: All About the D

Most of the time when the discussion is about fantasy football, we are usually talking about the offense, but if you are like me you also enjoy playing in the leagues that include IDP (Individual Defensive Players). IDP leagues will include the three basic positions for the defense; defensive line, linebackers, and defensive backs.

I happen to play in quite a few, so every week I am checking both sides of the ball for the right play. So far my luck has been all over the map, but this week not being different I still have my favorites.

The Saints have a much improved defense this season (ranked 11th overall), some of the credit should go to the return of head coach Sean Payton and the addition of Defensive Coordinator Rob Ryan. Also deserving is the play of their defensive line, in particular defensive tackle Cameron Jordan (5 sacks in six games this season). Jordan has been a solid anchor in the trenches with 20 total tackles this season. His matchup this week against the Bills offense that averages more than 34 rushing attempts per game should keep Jordan busy; the 24 sacks allowed (6th most in the league) by the Bills O-line will make him a must play.

Like Jordan, you don't have to venture out of the trenches to find more IDP talent when you look at the Bills defensive end Mario Williams. The Bills D lineman is having one of his best seasons with 10 sacks this season. Although the Saints offensive line does a pretty good job of protecting their quarterback Drew Brees, Williams has been too good this season to stop; you can expect him to get up close and personal with Mr. Brees. Williams has been a force on the defensive side recording at least a half sack in four straight games; ride the hot sacker.

One more fantasy nugget for Sunday, or should I say for the "Sunday Night Special." Vikings linebacker Erin Henderson has been a terror in the middle and I am pretty sure he and Packers running back Eddie Lacy will be getting well acquainted with one another this Sunday night. Henderson has been rock solid in the middle leading the Vikings team with 55 total tackles, including 45 solo. Henderson has been a beast this season adding 3 sacks and 2 interceptions to his resume. He is coming off an outstanding performance this past Monday night with 14 tackles and a sack; he's a must start every week.

That's my take for Week 8.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Edition

October 25th, 2013 

David’s Daily Digest

Week 8: Ground Gainers

After looking at matchups this week and watching what has been happening thus far this fantasy football season, it's safe to say the running back position has been less than spectacular. There are only a handful of safe rides (such as Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, & Adrian Peterson) each week, with most of the other options leaving their owners guessing.

These are a couple of my favorites for week 8 that I believe fantasy owners can ride with confidence.

Through seven weeks running back Frank Gore has been very reliable, averaging 78 yards on the ground per game with 5 rushing touchdowns. Gore’s 547 yards rushing this season ranks 4th in the league. This week the 49ers visit the Jaguars (ranked last against the run) who allow over 150 yards per game on the ground at a 4.6 yards per carry clip. Their 9 rushing touchdowns allowed this season are tied for most in the league making Gore a very attractive fantasy play this Sunday.

Like Gore, running back Darren Sproles faces a favorable matchup on Sunday when he lines up against the Bills. The Bills defense is ranked 28th against the run and allow an average of 4 yards per carry this season, but more importantly for Sproles their secondary is poor; ranked 21st versus the pass. Sproles is a versatile back just as effective in the pass game as he is in the run game. With tight end Jimmy Graham limited or sidelined this week, Sproles will not only tote his share of the rock, but will see 10+ targets once again on Sunday; last week he was targeted 12 times.

In the same matchup running back Fred Jackson is looking at a pretty tasty matchup himself. While the Saints have been pretty good on the defensive side of the ball this season, they are still allowing the 13^th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Jackson is also looking more like a solo act with C.J. Spiller not practicing much this week and doubtful for Sunday. Jackson is the 15^th leading rusher in the league with 380 yards and has also added 215 yards receiving with 25 receptions. He’s a solid flex and low RB2 in PPR leagues this week.

In New England, week 8 could be the week for running back Stevan Ridley to finally shine. Slowly but surely over the past couple of weeks fantasy owners have been seeing hints with Ridley averaging better than 4.5 yards per carry in his last three starts. Over the same course of time Ridley has carried the ball 42 times and rushed for 199 yards with three rushing scores. This week Ridley gets the Dolphins defense that allows the 5th most fantasy points to opposing running backs including five rushing touchdowns. Ridley should get plenty of chances to produce this Sunday.

That's my take for Week 8 running backs.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Edition

October 20th, 2013 

David’s Daily Digest

Week 7: Quick Notes for Sunday

I play in 13 fantasy football head-to-head leagues, so every Sunday I am looking at a lot of matchups and a lot of players. This week being no different, I am once again browsing my list of options and trying to set my best line-ups. By no means does this indicate I have any idea of what I am doing, but I can tell you that when numbers speak, I listen.

Here are a few numbers that are talking to me today….

WR-TY Hilton (Colts)…..Hilton (26 receptions, 388 yards receiving) will get his shot today at the one of the leagues worst secondarys. The Bronco allow the third most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and have allowed 1,374 receiving yards this season; most in the league.

RB-Joseph Randle (Cowboys)….with DeMarco Murray sideline, Randle is expected to carry the load. Last week in relief, 13 touches and today he faces the Eagles defense; 30 receptions allowed this season and 129 yards of offense to opposing running backs.

WR-Harry Douglas (Falcons),….with both Roddy White and Julio Jones (IR) OUT today, Douglas is now the team’s number two leading receiver with 27 targets and 219 yards receiving this season. He’s a strong bet to see a lot of chances today.

RB-Ryan Matthews (Chargers)…..the Chargers ball carrier ran well last Monday night totaling 102 yards on the ground on 22 carries. This week he gets the Jaguars who allow the 2^nd most fantasy points to opposing running backs and have allowed 6 rushing touchdowns this season.

RB-Giovani Bernard (Bengals)….the Bengals ball carrier is sharing the load these days, but a sweet matchup against the Lions should pay dividends. Giovani leads the backfield with 20 receptions this season and the Lions have allowed 3 receiving touchdowns to opposing running backs; tied for most in the league.

That's my take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Edition

October 19th, 2013 

David's Daily Digest

Week 7: Man Crushes

This is a big week for me in several of my fantasy leagues. In those where I am doing very well (5-1 start) I have a chance to create some separation and another where I am struggling at 2-4, it's a time to make a move and get back into the thick of things.

Facing such a pivotal point of the season, it's no time to start throwing out reason and following one's heart. If I am going to find success this week in any of my fantasy leagues, I need to be smart and read the numbers; numbers never lie.

Numbers that don't lie....

The Chargers roll into Jacksonville this weekend and with a savory matchup for quarterback Philip Rivers facing the Jags defense I have a huge week 7 Man-Crush on tight end Antonio Gates. The Chargers savvy veteran is having a strong 2013 campaign; 36 receptions and 466 yards receiving. Gates looks rejuvenated this season running on healthy legs and facing the Jaguars this week he should keep things rolling. The Jags allow the 8th most fantasy points to tight ends, tied for the 10th most receptions allowed (31) to tight ends, and tied for the 4th most touchdowns allowed (5) to opposing tight ends. These numbers don't lie.

The Eagles will roll out with quarterback Nick Foles this Sunday, who will be making his second consecutive start this season. Last week Foles was slinging it passing for 296 yards and tossing three scores. Tomorrow when he faces the Cowboys secondary, he will be looking at the secondary that allows the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, the 2nd most passing yards (1,974), the 2nd most passing completions (164), and the most touchdowns (14). You have to love these numbers.

The 49ers are on the road this week to face the Tennessee Titans and running back Frank Gore could be licking his chops. Over the past four weeks Gore has been on a tear rushing for 417 yards with two touchdowns averaging more than five yards a pop. This week he faces the defense that allows the 10th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, tied for the 7th most rushing touchdowns allowed (5), and the 7th most rushing yards (585). I like what these numbers are saying.

I recently picked up running back Eddie Lacy in a couple of leagues and I already like what I am seeing. Last week Lacy was strong rushing for 120 yards on 23 carries (5.2 yards per carry) and with a tasty matchup this Sunday he looks good to keeps things moving forward. Tomorrow Lacy will line up against the Browns defense that allows the 12th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, the most rushing touchdowns (6), and the 3rd most receptions (36). Not only do these numbers speak loudly, but they also say the nice PPR possibility.

These are the numbers for week 7 and they don't lie.

That's my take.

~David Ortega