FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Thursday Edition

October 17th, 2013 

David’s Daily Digest

Week 7: My Sneaky Plays

Well I wouldn’t actually call these starts for week 7 sneaky; it’s more for a lack of a better phrase. I would however say that I do like these players however very much for their matchups this week and their potential.

Redskins tight end Jordan Reed has 9 catches for 108 yards in his last two games and in three of the four games he has played this season he’s been targeted at least six times. This Sunday he’ll be facing the Bears defense that allows the 15^th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, including 448 yards receiving (fourth most). Over the past three weeks, the Bears secondary has allowed 18 receptions and 211 yards receiving to opposing tight ends (and this includes zero catches and yards in week 6). Reed is not a top tier tight end, but with quarterback Robert Griffin III getting healthier, I like the prospects of Reed seeing more opportunities and becoming more productive.

With quarterback Nick Foles under center in relief of starter Michael Vick, Eagles wide receiver Riley Cooper has suddenly found some fantasy relevance. In the first five weeks Cooper totaled 19 targets, recording no more than 2 catches in any one game; last week with Foles he was targeted six times and produced his best game with 4 grabs for 120 yards and a score. These are numbers I would not expect Cooper to necessarily duplicate, but if you need help at the receiver spot he’s got a juicy matchup with weekend with the Cowboys. The Boys from Big D allow the 14^th most fantasy points to opposing receivers, including the 9^th most yards receiving (1,071) and the 12^th most receptions (76).

One more for week 7, but this is hardly any kind of secret if you have been paying attention; Chargers running back Danny Woodhead. Over the past five weeks Woodhead has had no less than five targets per game (38 total), averaging more than 7 per each contest making him an excellent PPR prospect. In his last five games Woodhead has collected 34 passes for 251 yards with three touchdowns; and this is all through the air. On the ground he has added over the same span, 37 carries for 139 yards rushing. Averaging more than 14 touches per game in the last five weeks, Woodhead is a great prospect for production against a Jaguars defense that allows the 5^th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. If he’s available, pick him up and get him in your line up.

That's my take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Tuesday Edition

October 15th, 2013 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Week 7: Waiver Wire

Week six was a kind week for me in fantasy football going 5-2 in my seven head-to-head leagues, but my success came with a price. With several injuries now afflicting my teams, it’s time for me to really dig into the waiver wire for some week 7 relief.

The free-agent well is drying fast from one week to the next, but with constant change in standard re-draft leagues, you can still find hope if you look. The players of note that have affected my teams include wide receivers Julio Jones (IR), Calvin Johnson (knee), running backs DeMarco Murray (knee), and quarterback Michael Vick.

In the case of Julio, I am fortunate in one of my deeper PPR leagues to have Falcons wide receiver Harry Douglas. He’s probably nothing more than a flex option at best going forward, but he’s going to see his targets increase and have some nice games ahead; he has greater value in PPR leagues. If you are thin at receiver, he’s definitely an option to consider off the wire for week 7 (especially with a dinged-up Roddy White).

Like Jones, the injury to Calvin is opening doors for fellow teammates like Lions wide receiver Kris Durham. In the case of Durham, even though Johnson (8 targets) played last week he was still targeted a team high 13 times. In fact Durham has dominated the targets over the past two weeks with 21; only running back Reggie Bush (12 targets) is the other Lion with more than 9. Even if Calvin plays this Sunday, Durham will still see his fair share of work and the rapport between he and his QB only gets better from week to week.

Vick is still injured this week and expected to miss another start, with backup quarterback Nick Foles slated to make his second start, he’s a must grab for two reasons. First after his 296 yards passing and three touchdown performance last Sunday showed a great command for Chip Kelly’s offense, this week’s matchup against the league’s 30^th ranked pass defense makes a great second reason.

Another possible target off the wire this week is Cowboys rookie running back Joseph Randle. With Murray likely (not confirmed) to miss time this Sunday, Randle is in line to carry much of the load against the Eagles this week. Now Randle’s numbers were not off the charts last week after Murray went down (13 touches for 32 total yards) this past Sunday night, but the encouraging numbers were his 13 touches; it shows the teams commitment to the run game and the rookie. He obviously has greater value to Murray owners as a hand-cuff and insurance.

That's my take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Edition

October 13th, 2013 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Week 6: Bold Predictions

I don't have a crystal ball nor do I make a living at fortune telling, but like the next guy I can take a stab in the dark and make some bold statements and not-so-crazy predictions. And let me tell you after five weeks it does not get any easier, but being an avid fan and every Sunday watcher of the NFL I can offer a little perspective.

Strong Play

Looking at today's matchups there is one player that jumps out at me as my "strong play" of the day; quarterback Joe Flacco. His matchup with Green Bay today is a premium matchup that will call on hims to throw the ball a ton. With a versatile running back like Ray Rice, Flacco can look deep often and quickly dump it in the flat. The Packers will put a lot of pressure on the Ravens to score and I can only imagine seeing Flacco putting the ball in the air 40-plus times today.

Weak Play

I have running back Frank Gore going in one of my lineups today, but I don't see him having a big day. The Arizona D is strong against the run and Gore is going to have a long day trying to find holes. The good news, if the 49ers can get out front or keep things close throughout the day, they may stay patient and stick with the run giving Gore a lot of chances throughout the day.

Surprise Play

It may be a stretch, but I don't believe in the Steelers running game and think that quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is going to throw a ton today. Now a ton may be an exaggeration, but I like Ben and believe he has weapons and will spread the ball. Last Monday night Matt Ryan passed for 319 yards and two touchdowns; Ben could see similar numbers with a faulty run game.

That' my take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Edition

October 12th, 2013 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Week 6: Diamonds in the Rough

After five weeks of NFL action if some fantasy owners are anything like me, injuries and poor play are now playing havoc with my weekly line-ups; what's an owner to do. Fortunately for the waiver wire, but when the well starts to run dry and it is amazing how fast that can happen after just five weeks, where do we look for help.

In general I have managed to find early success in most of my fantasy league, but entering week 6 I am seeing some holes here and there that I now need to address. Where do I find my help?

The waiver wire has been a friend this season as it usually has in most, but with the talent well drying up, it's time to start really looking deep for that hidden talent or talent that has yet to shine; or what I like to call "Diamonds in the Rough." There's been some evidence of a few, and with the season moving along and no time to spare I believe now is the time to start making some moves and taking some chances that could pay big dividends.

Last week the Houston Texans lost tight end Owen Daniels for an extended period of time (min 8 weeks) and suddenly Garrett Graham looks like a polished gem. Graham will move into the starting role and likely assume the number tight end position in the passing game. It's not like Graham has been a stranger to the Texans passing game, through five games he has 15 receptions, including 3 touchdowns, and 141 yards receiving on 21 targets. The Texans like to use the tight end a lot and run a lot of sets with multiple tight ends. With Daniels out, Graham should see a significant rise in his targets and greater production. He definitely needs to be owned and could be a diamond that's ready to shine as a low-end TE1 or high TE2 (up to fantasy playoffs).

The season is long, so fortunately if you keep turning stones, you can uncover plenty of hidden talent. Injuries will always play a big part in fantasy and one's misfortune is often another's big break which could be the case for Falcons wide receiver Harry Douglas. With a foot injury cutting the season of Julio Jones short, Douglas is suddenly elevated to a fantasy starting role. Through five games Douglas has been relatively quiet, more of a complimentary piece to Jones and (Roddy) White, but could now see his 5.2 targets per game greatly increased. While Douglas may be limited as a scoring threat for standard leagues, he's a diamond that will offer great appeal in PPR leagues and leagues with yardage bonuses.

One more jewel from my notebook is another wide receiver that's there's not a lot of talk about at the moment; the Chargers Vincent Brown. In 2011 Brown came on to the scene and looked like a young up-and-coming talent for the Chargers; that was before injury would end his 2012 campaign after two weeks. Brown is healthy and with the whole complexion of the Chargers receiving core much different now, he has a chance to emerge as one of quarterback Philip Rivers’ go-to receivers. Over the past two weeks Brown has not been lighting it up, but there are signs this kids is warming up; 15 reception and 158 yards receiving on 18 targets. I don't believe these numbers are misleading, Brown has talent and with the lack of a reliable ground game Rivers is going to continue to put the ball in the air. Grab this diamond before his shine is too great to hide.

That's my take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Edition

October 6th, 2013 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Week 5: My Sunday Lineups

This is just my run-through of who I have in my lineups today and basically what I am expecting (okay maybe hoping-I like to win). I play in 7 H2H fantasy leagues and compete in 6-7 weekly redraft leagues, so I have quite a few fantasy players in action every Sunday. Since my list is long I am not going to review every play, but more or less touch on a few here and there that I find of interest.

My Teams:

One of my notable plays today is wide receiver DeSean Jackson; I have him as a flex in two lineups today which I think is pretty good. Jackson has a great matchup today against a Giants defense that is really struggling. They are ranked 20^th against the pass with just 4 sacks this season and allow the 14^th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers along with 5 touchdowns. If the Eagles have time to throw, Jackson could be running free all afternoon.

In this same matchup, the lack of pressure from the Giants front four is a big reason why I have quarterback Michael Vick in my lineup today. Vick presents all kinds of matchup issues for opposing defenses and with the Giants allowing the 6^th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, this looks to be a tasty matchup (for Vick).

In four of my lineups today, I am starting tight end Antonio Gates. He is healthy this season and the kid looks rejuvenated. He and quarterback Philip Rivers have been fantasy starts all season and against the Raiders this does not change. Gates ranks 11^th in the league with 364 yards receiving, which includes two 100 yard receiving days, before 2013 his last 100-yard performance came against the Raiders (back in Jan/2012).

Although I am a Denver Broncos fan and have them as my pick in their matchup today with the Cowboys, I am starting Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray. First, he has looked good thus far this season and second the Broncos are allowing the 5^th most fantasy points to opposing running backs (including the 7^th most receptions to RBs). This is a game where the Broncos could be up big and players like Murray pick up big yards and a late score in junk time.

These are just a few of my plays today and my thoughts for today’s matchups.

 ~David Ortega