FSH: FRIDAY'S 5X5

November 1st, 2008 7:01pm PST



[The Saturday Edition]
Friday's Five by Five (5x5)

5 players to start in Week 9....

1. The Buccaneer's RB Earnest Graham has a great fantasy matchup this week against the Chiefs. Graham has rushed for over 100 yards this season twice. This weekend facing a defense that has allowed 15 runs for more than 20 yards, and 14 rushing touchdowns (both worst in the NFL) Graham could be looking at a big day.
2. The Raiders RB Justin Fargas should have much success this weekend in the Black Hole facing the Falcons and their 23rd ranked run defense. Fargas is healthy and doesn't have to worry about McFadden challenging him for carries, so he should see the brunt of the load on Sunday. The Falcons allow 4.7 yards per carry, and Fargas should be able to find quite a few holes.
3. The Titans RB LenDale White has been rolling having scored 5 touchdowns in his last two games. Sunday he and Titans will host the Green Bay Packers who have not been successful against the run. Their 7 rushing touchdowns allowed is a good indication that White will have his chances on Sunday.
4. The Eagles are flying into Seattle this Sunday and when WR Kevin Curtis and Company land they will be bringing their 4th ranked pass offense. Curtis is coming off injury, but did play last week. This week he should see more action against a Seahawks defense that is ranked 30th against the pass allowing over 240 yards per game.
5. The Vikings passing game and WR Bernard Berrian have been showing signs of life over recent weeks. Berrian in particular has played extremely well with a touchdown reception in each of his last three games. Berrian will matchup against a Texan's secondary that has allowed 19 pass plays for 20 or more yards and 9 touchdown passes.

5 players to bench in Week 9...

1. The Lions signing of RB Rudi Johnson has not been particularly successful. Johnson is averaging 3.5 yards per carry, has just one rushing touchdown, and only 189 yards on the ground this year. This week is not a good matchup for Johnson against the Bears, and he will also likely lose carries to the rookie Kevin Smith.
2. The Cardinal's RB Edgerrin James actually has a good matchup this week against the Rams, but it is likely that the rookie Tim Hightower will get more opportunities to exploit. The writing is already on the wall, James' numbers are down and HC Ken Whisenhunt has already expressed his willingness to roll with the hotter hand "if it gives the team the best chance to win."
3. The Ravens appear to have gone in a new direction with the run game, which does not include RB LeRon McClain. The rookie has been stealing carries each week and now appears to be a regular part of the mix.
4. The Bear's WR Brandon Lloyd has been a limited participant in practice all week. There is a chance he could play, but the safe bet is to have the wideout on your bench this week until he's 100%.
5. With the addition of RB Cedric Benson (3.3 yds/carry), the Bengals have one worst rushing offenses this season. With Jacksonville next on the team's schedule, Sunday could be a long day for Benson or a short one if Bengal's fall behind quickly.

5 sleepers for Week 9...

1. Back in their Week 5 matchup, WR Rashied Davis had the chance to start and caught 6 passes for 97 yards. With Lloyd still expected to be limited, if he plays at all Davis will see many targets on Sunday and could have a productive day.
2. The Giants play host to the Cowboys this Sunday in a huge NFC East Showdown. With much of the defenses attention focused on the Giants primary offensive weapons, look for WR Steve Smith to hook up with Eli often underneath and over the middle.
3. With the likelihood of tight end Jason Witten (did not practice all week) being limited on Sunday, expect to see the rookie TE Martellus Bennett get involved in the team's passing game.
4. The Titan's have had their troubles with tight ends this season, as Dallas Clark's Monday night performance would indicate. The Packers TE Donald Lee has not been involved with the pass game much, but that could change quite a bit on Sunday.
5. While the Chiefs defense did make a few plays last week, they are still not very good and susceptible to the long ball (19 pass plays of 20 or more yards allowed). The Bucs are expected to run quite a bit, but will likely take shots with WR Joey Galloway, who could come up big.

5 players to Drop for Week 9...

1. For fantasy owners that drafted Bronco's running backs, if you picked up RB Andre Hall, he's seen his last days in the Denver backfield. It's well past time to drop Hall.
2. Another running back that has likely seen his last significant days in a backfield is Bengal's RB Chris Perry and his 2.6 yards per carry. Benson is the starter and Perry has become a distant memory with no carries in Week 7 & 8.
3. While some owners took a shot and in Week 2 it appeared it may pay-off, it's officially time to concede that RB Darren McFadden is too injury prone this season to keep on your roster. The risk is no longer worth the reward, drop him.
4. With the move made official earlier in the week with announcement of Shaun Hill as the team's starter, QB JT O'Sullivans' fate was sealed. The JTO experiment is over and it's time to let him go.
5. Fantasy owners are not likely to start QB Brad Johnson on Sunday against the Giants. With Romo set to return following the bye in Week 10, there's no reason to waste a roster spot with the aging veteran. Drop Johnson and find help you need at other positions.

5 players to watch for Week 9...

1. The Packers are not likely to have much success on the ground this week against Tennessee. Number three WR James Jones is now healthy and could be targeted in the red-zone this Sunday. Owners should keep their eyes on the former San Jose State Spartan.
2. The Eagles will see their complete receiving corp healthy on Sunday. Before his injuries had him on the sideline, WR Reggie Brown was becoming one of McNabb's favorite targets. Now back with a full compliment of weapons around him, Brown is worth watching.
3. The Steelers will have running back Fast Willie Parker back Monday night, but keep your eye on RB MeWelde Moore who still figures in the mix and will likely play a big role in the short passing game.
4. The Chiefs have had plenty of trouble in the backfield this season. With LJ out for the next few weeks and Kolby Smith ineffective, RB Jamaal Charles could get his shot soon. Keep your eye on the rookie this Sunday.
5. While it could be a bit premature to think you might see anything this soon, with the Bronco's backfield banged up keep your eye on rookie RB Ryan Torain who could see action this Sunday.

The Fantasy Double-Double...

Here are the not-so obvious plays for Week 9 at the Quarterback position.

Two Quarterbacks to start...

• The Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has been playing very well this season. This week he faces a tough matchup against the Titans defense, but the Pack won't run the ball, they will have to throw. I like Rodgers and his receivers against the Titans secondary. Last Monday night Manning and Co had some success, and the Packers passing unit (Jennings, Driver, etc) as a whole has been more consistent. Rodgers is the new golden boy in Lambeau, start him.
• The Rams offense has struggled, but last week QB Marc Bulger unleashed the team's newest weapon in rookie receiver Donnie Avery. With his new toy last week, the healthy Bulger passed for over 300 yards (1st time this season). When he was healthy in 2006, Bulger passed for over 300 yards in both meetings versus the Cardinals. Bulger should have another fine day of passing, start him.
  

Two Quarterbacks to sit...

• The Patriots QB Matt Cassell has a very tough matchup this week against the Colts. While Indy has not stellar against the pass, they will be at home on the turf and will be relying heavy on getting pressure from the outside speed rushers, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. In their last home game against the Ravens, the Colts defensive line registered 4 sacks, sit Cassell on Sunday.
• The Cowboys QB Brad Johnson has been a bad fantasy options since assuming the starting gig with Romo sidelined. This week he'll face one of the leagues fiercest pass rushes and with back up Brooks Bollinger seeing some reps this week, there is a very good chance Johnson may not even finish the game. Sit him down in Week 9.

The Weekly Trader News...

Stocks on the Rise

WR-Donnie Avery (STL)
The Rams speedy rookie receiver has seen a tremendous rise in his stock this past week. Following a big performance in Week 8, Avery will undoubtedly be grabbed up off most, if not all waiver wires. Fantasy owners, if you can make a move now for the kid, this is the time to buy as his value should continue to rise in the weak NFC West.

RB-LaDanian Tomlinson (SD)
The Chargers running back is off to one of his slowest starts this season, and many others may think he could be a bargain deal on the trading floor. Think again, last Sunday Tomlinson demanded the ball more and responded with his best game of the year (170 yards with a score). In the coming weeks LT will face the Chiefs (twice), Colts, Falcons, Raiders, and the Broncos, probably one of the easiest fantasy schedules you could hope to see. Following the bye, LT's value should continue to rise and he should have a good shot at finishing as one of the top 5 running backs in fantasy.

RB-Pierre Thomas (NO)
The Saints are on a bye week and right now is the best time to make a move for Thomas as a buy low. With the team off this week, some owners may lose sight of the fact the RB Deuce McAllister could be facing a possible suspension. Even when Reggie Bush returns, Thomas is a suitable compliment to share the backfield and could pick up the carries and goal-line chances that Deuce normally sees. It certainly looks like Deuce will eventually be suspended and when that happens Thomas' could see his value spike.

Stocks that are falling

WR-Terrell Owens (DAL)
For owners needing help at the receiver position, there may not be a better bargain right now, than the Cowboys Terrell Owens. His slow start this season and poor play has his fantasy value free-falling every week. With Johnson the starter, fantasy owners holding TO are likely to give him away. If you have the roster space and can use the help at WR, To is a bit of a risky play that can offer huge dividends. Remember Romo returns in Week 9 and TO will have Roy Williams opposite to help open things up in the passing game. Savvy owners that enjoy the high stakes shouldn't hesitate to make this move.

RB-Larry Johnson (KC)
Right now the Chiefs running back has a cloudy future at best. With his Week 10 suspension still to come, the former Nittany Lion could see his value bottom out this week. Surprisingly, Johnson could be one of those stocks that has a chance to pay off huge on the back end. Right now he is a buy low (probably as low as he will go), but eventually Johnson will be back on the field and with games left against the Raiders (wk 13), Broncos (wk 14), Chargers (wk 15), and the Dolphins (wk 16) he could be an extremely valuable commodity for your playoff run.

The Trading Floor

QB-Matt Ryan (ATL)
More than likely if you drafted the rookie QB Matt Ryan, you picked him up as one of you back up quarterbacks and he's sitting on your bench. His recent play has given the rookie substantial value on the market and if you're a savvy owner, you could parlay a nice trade move using the rookie. Ryan's value is peaking at the moment with his fine play and owner's will probably not see better offers down the road when he hits a few bumps. Make a deal now, while you can sell high.

RB-Michael Pittman (DEN)
With so much talk surrounding the anticipated debut of rookie running back Ryan Torain, owners with Michael Pittman may want to consider making a move now. Pittman has never been anything more than a journey-man running back. Although he has started in the past with other teams and is the current starter with the Broncos, he's not the long term solution in Denver. Pittman's value is as high as owners will probably see all year, with Torain healthy, Pittman could eventually lose carries and see his stock drop. Trade him now while he has value.

WR-Matt Jones (JAX)
The Jaguars receiver is one of those risky stocks that could eventually have a big pay day in the final quarter. With Jones about to face a possible suspension of multiple games, some owners may hesitate trying to acquire the former Razorback, while owners that have him may be interested in dealing. Jones has a couple of great matchups coming up (in week 9 & 10) and has a very favorable fantasy playoff schedule. If you have something to offer and have the roster space, Jones is a stock worth trading for.

http://www.tailgate365.com/