Sunday, October 8, 2017

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 8th 2017
Sunday Morning Edition






My Week 5 Four Horsemen + Flex

(Bold Predictions)


It’s report card check time as I take a quick look back at last week’s picks. I started off well with my Deshaun Watson pick, but to be honest he greatly out-performed any of my expectations; 5 touchdowns last week (33.72 fantasy points). My running back selection was Jacquizz Rodgers who did well totaling 108 yards (12.8 fantasy points), while my wide receiver was Jarvis Landry (12.60 fantasy points) was decent. Travis Kelce (my week 4 selection) was solid with 7 catches, 111 yards receiving (for 24.10 fantasy points), and a score, while (flex play) running back Chris Thompson (1.70 fantasy points) finally cooled. My week 4 defense was Jacksonville and we scored well there.
Overall grade B

Quarterback

On the road or at home the Eagles secondary has not been very good this season allowing the 9th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including the 3rd most passing yards this season. In his last three starts, Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer has thrown for better than 300 yards in each game, but only has 4 touchdowns over that span. With a full complement of receiving weapons, I expect Palmer to have success taking a couple of shots downfield in this one; 22 of 30 passing for 315 yards, 2 touchdowns, and one interception.

Running Back

He’s been the workhorse for the Steelers the past three weeks, averaging more than 30 touches per game, and Le’Veon Bell is likely to see a lot more of the same this Sunday against Jacksonville. The Jags allow the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing running backs and have surrendered 576 rushing yards (2nd most), including nearly 6 yards per carry in four games. Bell is primed for a big day and this game sets up right in his wheelhouse; 110 yards rushing, 4 receptions, 35 receiving yards, and one score.

Wide Receiver

This week’s receiver of choice is the Niners Pierre Garcon. Through four weeks Garcon is the No.26 fantasy WR (in PPR). He has been targeted 33 times turning in 20 receptions for 285 yards, but no touchdowns. Sunday Garcon will get a shot at his old team, the Colts. This season the Colts defense has allowed 789 receiving yards to opposing receivers and surrender the 8th most fantasy points. Garcon is so heavily targeted this season, he’s almost guaranteed to see plenty of chances on Sunday; 7 catches 90 yards, and a touchdown.

Tight End

It’s been an up and down season with not much up for Chargers tight end Hunter Henry. His only week with double digit fantasy scoring (in PPR) came in week 2 when he caught 7 passes for 80 yards (15.0 fantasy points). Henry has just 10 catches for 96 yards in four games, but a matchup on Sunday with the Giants could change all of this. The Giants defense is the worst against opposing tight ends allowing the most fantasy points, 3rd most receiving yards, 2nd most receptions, and 5 touchdowns (most in the league). It could be a dream matchup for Henry, if this is the week he’s involved in the passing game. His numbers for Sunday; 6 catches, 75 yards receiving, one touchdown.

Flex

While Browns head coach Hue Jackson is not ready to feature Duke Johnson Jr as his primary runner, there’s no doubt Johnson will be featured in the pass game with a number of runs sprinkled in throughout. In four games Duke is ranked as the No.17 fantasy RB (in PPR) with 20 reception for 207 receiving yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. The Jets defense has had trouble with running backs on the ground allowing the 8th most rushing yards and 4th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Johnson has steadily seen an average of more than 10 touches per game the past couple of weeks averaging 7.5 receptions on 17 targets. Johnson should again see similar numbers on Sunday; 35 rushing yards, 6 receptions, 55 yards receiving, with a score.

Defense; the Bengals defense gets my start for week 4. The defense is home this week playing host to the Bills. Through 4 games the Bengals have recorded 12 sacks and Bills offense has allowed 12; something is going to give. The Bengals are only the No.12 ranked defense in fantasy, but playing at home this week will certainly help them improve their numbers.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega




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