FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Evening Edition

September 20th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Night Quick Reads

Do the Numbers lie?

Looking at Sunday’s matchups there are a lot of key matchups to take note, but you also can’t forget to pay attention to what the numbers are saying. With 20 line-ups on tap to set for Sunday week 3, I am looking for any and every parcel of information that will help me find the strongest plays.

When I look at all of my matchups, I am hoping the numbers don’t lie….

The Colts will invade swamp country on Sunday when they face the Jaguars in Jacksonville and running back Ahmad Bradshaw could be looking to do some serious damage. The Jaguars defense is ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs and their four rushing touchdowns allowed this season are most in the league. Bradshaw is coming off an 18 touch performance last Monday that produced 5 receptions, 96 total yards of offense and two scores. This is a great matchup for Bradshaw, he’s a week 3 must play!

The Cleveland Browns defense was stung last week for 10 catches and two scores by Saints tight end Jimmy Graham. This Sunday the Ravens tight end Dennis Pitta is not quite the same caliber player as Graham, but in week one Pitta posted his own 10 catch game. The Browns allow the 7^th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and Pitta with his 19 targets in two games could be in for a big day on Sunday. He’s a favorite for Week 3.

If you are looking deep on your roster and you come across the Bills wide receiver Sammy Watkins, if you have not started him yet this Sunday could be the time to do just that. Watkins is coming off a strong week 2 performance; 8 catches on 11 targets for 117 yards and a touchdown. Watkins will face the Chargers defense in week 3, the same defense that has allowed 7^th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Watkins is a playmaker and could be geared to make more plays on Sunday; he’s a strong week 3 flex play.

The Chargers are making the long distance travel across country to face the Bills on Sunday in week 3, even though they are good team this could be a tough matchup. The Chargers defense allows the 10^th most fantasy points and facing running backs CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson offers no comfort. Spiller has yet to breakout this season and Jackson too has been quiet, but the two could be in for a big day of production against the Bolts. The Chargers have allowed more than 230 yards of offense, 16 receptions (2^nd most allowed) and three touchdowns to running backs; Spiller and Jackson are on track for a productive Sunday.

The Chiefs defense has been a mere shadow of itself from a year ago and the timing could not be any better for Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill and Company. The Chiefs secondary is allowing the 3^rd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including 5 touchdowns (tied for most in the league) and zero interceptions. With safety Eric Berry already ruled out, the matchup just gets better for Tannehill and wide receiver Mike Wallace (19 targets in 2014). Tannehill is coming off a tough loss against the Bills in week 2, so he and Wallace will look to get back on track this Sunday. In deeper leagues both could be sneaky plays for week 3.

These are more of my takes for week 3.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Wednesday Evening Edition

September 17th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Don’t Hit the Snooze Button

My Week 2 Sleepers

Week 3 starts in less than 24 hours, so like all fantasy owners we need to be quick to the wire if we are to make any worthy pickups that count; but who to grab?

After watching a lot of football last Sunday, one player that jumped out at me in the earlier games was the Bills rookie wide receiver Sammy Watkins. I really wasn’t expecting a lot from the kid this season, but he’s a superior talent and has clearly separated himself from the other receivers on the squad. Watkins leads the team with 15 targets this season, including last weeks 11 when caught 8 passes for 117 yards and a score. This week Watkins and company host a Chargers defense that allows the 7^th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. This is a good matchup for Watkins; if he’s available he needs to be owned and could be a strong flex or WR3 play this Sunday.

Like the Bills rookie wide receiver, the Texans have a young rising star in wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. The 2^nd year wideout has had a nice start to his 2014 campaign recording 7 receptions for 111 yards and two touchdowns. Hopkins is second on the team with 10 targets and has already developed a nice rapport with quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. This week’s matchup against a Giants defense that allows the 5^th most fantasy points to opposing wide receiver is a prime matchup and great opportunity for Hopkins to breakout. He’s also a nice flex or WR3 play for week 3.

Now here’s an opportunity play that I am feeling real good about. With the Bengals looking at a week 4 bye, it would only make sense to sit an ailing A.J. Green. Fantasy owners will have to wait for the updates and see if Green sits or plays. If Green is sidelined, I like wide receiver Mohamed Sanu to pick up the slack. The Bengals will play host to Tennessee this week and the Titan’s secondary has been good thus far this season. But last week, the Cowboys number receiver posted big numbers and with Green out I like Sanu to play that same role. With Green sidelined in week 2, Sanu only targeted four times was very effective totaling 3 receptions for 84 yards and a touchdown. If it’s Sanu and no Green, I would expect more of the same this week; he could be a low-end WR2 or WR3.

That’s my take for week 3.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Tuesday Evening Edition

September 16th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Football Heroes

Week 2 Studs

If there is a plaque to be handed out, if there is a vote to be cast, Eagles running back Darren Sproles gets my vote and deserves the plaque for Week 2 Fantasy Stud. His Monday night performance alone saved my butt in several leagues; 7 receptions for 152 receiving yards and oh yeah, 4 carries for 26 more yards on the ground with a score. Now that’s production from the Tank.

Like Sproles in week 2, another running back playing in Monday night’s contest that displayed his studly-ness was the Colts Ahmad Bradshaw. Healthy in 2014 and getting a fair-share chance to contribute Bradshaw, although greatly over-shadowed by Sproles did hold his own. The Colts number two (and maybe soon to be number one) ball carrier tallied 18 touches (13 carries, 5 receptions) on the evening for 96 total yards. Bradshaw also found the end-zone twice; an outstanding and complete performance for the Colts running back.

And not to be left out or forgotten, Buccaneers running back Bobby Rainey provided a stellar performance on Sunday in a losing cause. Rainey filling in for the injured Doug Martin, was more than admirable, he was scintillating. Rainey carried the ball 22 times for 144 yards on the ground, including a long run of 31 yards. He also displayed his versatility catching 3 passes for another 30 yards. Even though Rainey did not find the end zone, he was still an outstanding fantasy stud.

Going forward, Sproles and Bradshaw need to be in lineups. Even as the proverbial number two in Philly and Indy respectively, both backs are part of the game plan and will see their share of touches. In Tampa, even with the prospect of Martin returning in week 3, Rainey needs to be owned. Until we see the dynamic of the two on the field together (not necessarily at the same time) owners should temper their expectations and see how Rainey’s role plays out. He definitely has some value as a flex in deeper leagues, but has the potential of being in play week in and week out.

That’s my early takes for week 3.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Morning Edition

September 14th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Gametime

Last Minute Notes

Well, we actually have more than a couple of minutes; we are several hours away from Sunday kickoff. But in the whole scheme of things this is last minute considering how much time we have had available to set our line-ups.

With Sunday kickoff for week 2 of the NFL just a few short hours away, I thought I would take a look at some of today’s matchups and offer some helpful insight or just give you my opinion; whatever makes you feel most comfortable.

While I am setting my 19 head-2-head fantasy lineups this morning and one thing I will be remembering, in the Jacksonville-Washington game today the Jaguars will not have the services of safety Johnathan Cyprien (concussion). Cyprien is a great talent in the secondary and was second on the team in tackles last season with 104. Last week when Cyprien left the game against the Eagles, the Jaguars secondary had a lot of problems, blown assignments and allowed several big plans. As a result the defense surrendered 34 second half points.

The Redskins offense is in great need of some kind of spark coming off their poor performance in week one scoring just six points. The Jaguars may be just what the doctored ordered. With Cyprien ruled out this week, the Redskins wide receivers Pierre Garcon (10rec/77yds) and DeSean Jackson (8rec/62yds) may finally get on track and hit a few big plays in the pass game. I like both plays today and I would even consider tight end Niles Paul (4 targets in week 1) a sneaky sleeper play today for those with need at the position. And of course with all this love for his receivers, I have to say I like quarterback Robert Griffin III to bounce back today with a solid performance.

Looking at another matchup today with injury implications having an impact, the Saints-Browns matchup is interesting. Browns tight end Jordan Cameron has been listed as questionable all with a shoulder injury that he reaggravated in week one. With Cameron limited or possibly ruled out, I am in heavy favor of wide receiver Andrew Hawkins (8rec/87yds last week). Hawkins played with the Bengals last season and came over to the Browns during the offseason. During training camp he built up a nice rapport with quartback Brian Hoyer; in week one Hawkins was targeted 10 times. Today could be much of the same. Hawkins is not a big play, but has the look of a volume receiver; he’ll see plenty more targets and rack up more catches. That’s PPR gold.

Circling back the wagons and looking at an earlier morning matchup in the Northeast, I believe the Dolphins-Bills matchup today will be a close game. I believe both teams will be able to stay with the game-plans and run the ball extensively. The Bills did a solid job in week one limiting the Bears run game allowing 86 yards on 18 carries. The key number here is the 18 carries, because today the Bills defense is likely to see a significantly larger number facing the M&M boys. In week one against the Patriots, the Dolphins running backs Knowshon Moreno and Lamar Miller combined for 35 carries. Moreno is the favorite here, leading the way in week one with 24 totes, but Lamar Miller still has plenty of fantasy relevance. Miller carried the ball 11 times to the tune of 59 yards; he also snagged four passes. Both have value and both should be in your lineup today; Moreno as an RB2 and Miller as a flex.

These are just a couple of my takes for Week 2.

Good luck.

~David Ortega