FSH NOTEBOOK: FRIDAY FANTASY WATCH

December 31st, 2010, Friday

Friday Fantasy Watch

Shonn Greene: Greene set to get some work

The Jets could be giving some players the day off this Sunday, but running back Shonn Greene does not appear to be one. With reports of running back LaDanian Tomlinson resting on Sunday Greene figures to get the brunt of the load against the Bills.

The Bills are ranked dead last against the run and while he has been splitting carries down the stretch, Greene has actually been the more effective runner in the Jets backfield. Greene rushed for 70 yards on 12 carries last week against the Bears with a touchdown and could see a more productive afternoon this Sunday.

Sunday’s projections against the Bills.
(20 carries, 115 yards rushing, 2 catches, 15 yards receiving, one touchdown)

Matt Forte: All Signs Indicate A Day Off

The Bears have been giving some of their back-up running backs extra reps in practice this week indicating that Forte could share more of the load this week. Forte has been the primary ball carrier this season, but with the division locked up and not much more to gain it would make sense to rest some of the starters.

Forte is having a productive season and has been particularly strong down the stretch, but if Sunday’s contest against the Packers is decided early it’s very possible Forte could see an early exit.

Sunday’s projections against the Packers.
(12 carries, 45 yards rushing, one catch, 10 yards receiving)

Jacoby Jones: Could Be In For Another Strong Outing

The Texans are likely to be without wide receiver Andre Johnson (ankle) this Sunday against the Jaguars. With Johnson listed as doubtful, wide receiver Jacoby Jones is expected to start in his place. Jones has started six games this season and has 46 receptions this season; including 17 in his last three games.

Jones started last Sunday in place of the injured Johnson and turned in a solid performance with five catches for 115 yards on seven targets. This week the Texans meet the Jacksonville and Jones will line up against the leagues 26th ranked pass defense. The Texans are playing for pride this week and will likely ride their sixth ranked passing offense; expect Jones to be a big part of the passing attack.

Sunday’s projections against the Jagaurs.
(5 catches, 105 yards passing, one touchdown)

Just my take.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: MY WEEKLY SURVIVAL

December 30th, 2010, Thursday

My Weekly Survivors

It looks like we picked the worst time to have a bad week in our season long chase for a Suicide fantasy football championship. With the season winding down and fewer chances to make a move to the top last week was one to forget.

Week 16 did not go so well with a few of our picks tanking big time. With Marion Barber returning to the field last week, Tashard Choice saw very few touches and totaled only two points. On Monday night Marques Colston turned in one of his quietest games with just two catches for 21 yards (two points). Ben Watson kept our hard luck with the tight ends going another week with a poor fantasy outing last Sunday against the Ravens (2 points). The only highlights of our week 16 team picks were quarterback Matt Schaub (16 points) and place kicker Neil Rackers (11 points).

This week we enter the season finale with all hopes of a run at the top now a distant memory. With one lineup left to submit a lineup and currently residing in the 8th spot, a top five finish still looks possible. This week will offer some unique challenges with the possibility of some players sitting (resting), but like every week we’ll just have to dig a little deeper to find this week’s stars on Sunday.

Here are my picks for week 17….

QB-Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers still have a lot left to play for, so Big Ben should be a busy man on Sunday making plays. In their first meeting versus the Browns back in week 6, Roethlisberger passed for 257 yards and tossed three touchdowns. The Steelers have won five of their last six and a win on Sunday will deliver a division title; expect Big Ben to play a big part.
(Projected: 20 fantasy points/ 250 yards passing, two touchdowns, 25 rushing yards)

RB- Shonn Greene, New York Jets
The Jets have clinched a playoff berth, but have no shot at the division. With Sunday’s meeting with the Bills having very little impact on their playoff seeding it sounds like several Jets could be rested; including LaDanian Tomlinson. With LT likely to see the bench on Sunday it could be a very productive day for running back Shonn Greene (766 yards rushing in 2010).
(Projected: 17 fantasy points/ 105 yards rushing, 2 catches, 10 yards receiving, one touchdown)

RB-Ryan Matthews, San Diego Chargers
The Chargers’ running back is healthy again, running well, and has seen his most extensive action of this season over the past three weeks. Mathews is averaging 16 touches per game in his last three games and 3.9 yards per carry. With Mike Tolbert ruled out is should be all Mathews against the Broncos’ 31st ranked run defense.
(Projected: 17 fantasy points/ 85 yards rushing, 3 catches, 30 yards receiving, one touchdown)

WR-Mario Manningham, New York Giants
The Giants wide receiver Mario Manningham has been on fire over the past couple of weeks and could be even bigger with Hakeem Nicks not expected to play this Sunday. Manningham has posted consecutive 100 yard receiving games and this week he’ll face the Redskins 31st ranked pass defense in week 17; he looks like a good bet to make it three straight.
(Projected: 17 fantasy points/ 7 catches, 110 yards, one touchdown)

WR-Jacoby Jones, Houston Texans
The Texans have the sixth ranked passing offense in the league making their receivers look very attractive in week 17 against the Jaguars 26th ranked pass defense. With Andre Johnson inactive last week, wide receiver Jacoby Jones got the nod to start and turned in strong performance with five catches for 115 yards. If Johnson sits, Jones looks to be a good play against a weak secondary. If Johnson decides to go, he would be the preferred play here.
(Projected: 14 fantasy points/ 4 catches, 85 yards, one touchdown)

TE-Kellen Winslow Jr., Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Winslow leads the team in catches this season with 63 and is coming off a big Sunday with seven grabs and two scores. With the Bucs still in the post season hunt, quarterback Josh Freeman will be sure to look his way often. In their first matchup this season against the Saints, Winslow did not total a lot of yards, but was targeted 10 times and caught 7 passes. He figures to be busy in the rematch.
(Projected: 14 fantasy points/ 6 catches, 80 yards, one touchdown)

PK-Adam Vinatieri, Indianapolis Colts
The Colts rank 3rd in the league in scoring this season averaging just over 27points per contest, but at home in their last two games have totaled 69 points. With the Titans in town this Sunday, the Colts look like a good bet to post another 30 point effort. Vinatieri has been gold this season making 23 of 25 field goals and he is perfect at home on 13 tries.
(Projected: 12 fantasy points/ three field goals, three extra points)

Last week’s results

(Week 16 Points=41, Total Season Points=1,192, 8th place)
QB-Matt Schaub, Houston Texans
RB- Tashard Choice, Dallas Cowboys
RB-Mike Tolbert, San Diego Chargers
WR-Santana Moss, Washington Redskins
WR-Marques Coltson, New Orleans Saints
TE-Ben Watson, Cleveland Browns
PK-Neil Rackers, Houston Texans

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

December 29th, 2010 Wednesday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

ROBERT MEACHEM BLOWS UP MONDAY NIGHT
One of the Saints big play deep threats has been on and off all season, but Monday night he came up big with his best game of the season. Meachem racked up 10 catches for 101 yards receiving off 13 targets (his most targets in a single game all season).
My Fantasy Read:
The Saints still have a lot to play for with a division title still up for grabs. Although he’s coming off a solid Monday night, Meachem is too inconsistent to be relied upon. Brees has the ability to spread the ball around to any of his receiving options making Meachem a risky play at best.

JOSH FREEMAN HAS A FANTASY SUNDAY
The Buccaneers quarterback Josh Freeman saved his best for last (or at least week 16). Last Sunday against the Seahawks Freeman was brilliant completing 21 of 26 passes, throwing five touchdown, and passing for 237 yards in the team’s week 16 win.
My Fantasy Read:
The Buccaneers are still battling for a post-season berth, so Freeman could be a preferred option under center with names like Brady, Vick, and Cutler expected to see limited action on Sunday.

MATT CASSEL IS COOL ON SUNDAY
With a division title hanging in the balance the Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel was cool in the clutch leading his team to their 10th win of the season and their first division title since 2003. Cassel completed 24 of 34 passes for over 300 yards (only the second time this season) an tossed three touchdowns (27 this season).
My Fantasy Read:
Even with the division wrapped up, the Chiefs are not expected to rest their starters this weekend. Although there is not a lot to gain with a win, Cassel will start and should be one of the more reliable starters this weekend.

DANNY WOODHEAD FINDS PAY-DIRT
The Patriots running back Danny Woodhead took advantage of some extra work last Sunday rushing for 93 yards with a touchdown on 13 carries. Woodhead was also effective in the pass game snagging three balls on four targets for 32 yards. His 125 total yards of offense was his most productive game of the season.
My Fantasy Read:
The Patriots’ small package of dynamite continues to be a valuable asset to the offense, but with Woodhead only averaging 10-12 touches per game he typically has limited fantasy value as a flex option. With the Patriots wrapping up the division and home field this past week Woodhead could see some extended action this coming Sunday.

DOMINIC RHODES GETS SOME WORK ON SUNDAY
The Colts running game received a much needed boost last Sunday from running back Dominic Rhodes. It was only his second game back with the Colts, but Rhodes took advantage of the opportunity rushing for 98 yards on 17 carries.
My Fantasy Read:
It was a nice afternoon for the returning Colt, but with Joseph Addai (12 carries for 45 yards) returning to action Rhodes is only going to see fewer touches going forward. His fantasy stardom looks short lived.

FSH NOTEBOOK: ON THE COVER

December 27th, 2010, Monday

On the Cover

Gateway to the West

The Chiefs win the AFC West

With all the talk about the San Diego Chargers in December someone forgot to mention to the Chiefs that they were not supposed to win the West. After defeating the defending West champions on the first Monday night of the season the Chiefs have not looked back.

After 16 weeks of sitting in first place of the AFC West with their decisive win over the Titans this past weekend the Kansas City Chiefs have locked down their first division title since the 2003 season. It really should come as no surprise seeing the Chiefs win the division when you look at how they got it done.

The Chiefs were not expected to contend for the division title this season, but rather the Chargers were the preseason pick. And when the Bolts started to play and look better in December a lot of folks, including myself expected them to take the division as they have time and again. One thing I did overlook was Todd Haley and the Chiefs.

From week one the Chiefs have clearly been the best team in the AFC West with a balanced offense that features the league’s number one ground attack. The Chiefs have proven this season to be a ball control offense with a run first mentality, but their 28th ranked passing offense led by quarterback Matt Cassel should not be overlooked.

Cassel is having a fantastic (3,001 yards passing, 60.2 completion pct) season under center in only his second season with the Chiefs; his 27 passing touchdowns this season ranks 6th in the league, while his five interceptions rank 2nd fewest. The Chiefs signal caller is also the 5th highest rated passer in the league behind names like; Brady, Rivers, Vick, and Rogers.

While some may be surprised by what the Chiefs have managed in only Todd Haley’s second year at the helm, they should not be. What Haley has done is constructed a well balanced club that in many ways mirrors a team from the northeast (that has enjoyed similar success).

The Chiefs play ball control (ranked 8th in the league in TOP) with the league’s best ground attack lead by running back Jamaal Charles (1,380 yards rushing) and Thomas Jones (6 touchdowns), but they also have weapons with players like wide receiver Dwayne Bowe (15 touchdowns) to stretch the field. The secret to their success is playing mistake free ball and their 11th ranked opportunistic defense (three defensive touchdowns this season); their +10 turnover ratio ranks 5th in the league.

At 10-5 the Chiefs will have a chance this weekend to earn their 11th win of the season with a victory over their divisional rival Oakland Raiders. This is quite a turnaround following a season where they won just four games. With a perfect 7-0 record at home this season and their first playoff game since 2003 to be played at Arrowhead Stadium, the under-rated Chiefs might not be done just yet.

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY MORNING GAMETIME

December 26th, 2010, Sunday

Sunday Morning Gametime

Today’s injury notes

The Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez practiced Friday and is expected to start today against the Bears according to ESPN. Sanchez is dealing with a sore shoulder, but did not suffer any setbacks this week; he is clear to play and will start.

The Patriots are likely to go after their 13th win and a chance to clinch a division title today without rookie tight end Aaron Hernandez. He has been downgraded to doubtful with a hip injury and is not expected to play today, according to the Patriots Twitter feed.

The Jaguars are not expecting running back Maurice Jones-Drew to be available today against the Redskins. MJD missed practice all week and looks doubtful for today’s matchup. Running back Rashard Jennings would get the start if MJD is unable to go.

The Packers will have quarterback Aaron Rodgers returning to the lineup today against the Giants. Rodgers, recovering from a concussion was cleared earlier in the week to return to the field and practiced well all week with the team this week. He is expected to start.

Before they signs indicated this game could be postponed, the Vikings quarterback Brett Favre was looking doubtful for Sunday night. If the game gets moved, you’d better check back on Favre’s status.

According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the Texan’s are likely to be without wide receiver Andre Johnson (ankle). The Texan’s wideout is listed as doubtful for Sunday, but Johnson will test the ankle during warm-ups; the Texan’s play a late game today.

The Bengals will not have Chad Ochocinco (foot) available today against the visiting Chargers. The team has declared the wide receiver inactive. Rookie receiver Jordan Shipley and Andre Caldwell and expected to start for the injured TO and Ochocinco.

Today’s Matchup

Weather conditions should have little effect on Philip Rivers today, expect to the see the Bolts’ quarterbacks do what he does so well; throw the ball. He should have a big day as one of the top rated quarterbacks in the league.

Rodgers will be a risk and reward play today against the Giants. As long as he is protected he’ll be able to torch the Giants’ secondary, but expect the G-men to come after him with lots of blitzes and pressure. As long as he is standing he’s due for a big passing day.

Rashard Jennings is expected to start in place of the injured MJD, but he is not MJD. The Redskins are however the 27th ranked run defense. Jennings should be productive (90+ total yards), but not likely to have a huge game.

With Andre Johnson ailing, tight end Owen Daniels could become more of a focal point in the pass game against an awful Broncos secondary. Daniels should see plenty of targets today and has a good chance at scoring Sunday.

The Jaguars defense ranks 18th against the run, so expect to see a heavy does of Redskin’s running back Ryan Torain. With Grossman making his second start on Sunday the Redskins would like to get Torain rolling early and see a more balanced attack. Torain leads the team with 616 yards rushing and three touchdowns this season.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE FANTASY SPORTS ZONE (THE FOUR HORSEMEN)

December 25th, 2010 Saturday

The Four Horsemen

Let’em Ride

Last week we had a few horsemen riding high through the stomping grounds. Our quarterback Jon Kitna did not disappoint with a big passing day over 300 yards and two touchdowns. Another rider with a big game in week 15 was running back Jonathan Stewart who totaled 137 yards on the ground, but did not find the end-zone. Unlike Stewart our wide receiver Mike Williams did find the end-zone along with six catches for 96 yards; a good day. Only our tight end (Owen Daniels) was M.I.A. in week 15 with just four catches for 45 yards.

This week our horsemen will be riding for gold with many fantasy championships on the line and like “the four winds of the earth” these fantasy play-makers are looking to ride strong bring home a fantasy title for some lucky owner…..

Quarterback:
The San Diego Chargers are still hanging on to playoff hopes by a wing and a prayer and with two games left in the season, they can’t afford any let downs. With his tight end out and wide receiver Malcom Floyd probably out, quarterback Philip Rivers (29 touchdowns, 4,141 yards passing) will need to be at his best. And he just may against the Bengals 18th ranked pass defense. Even with a couple of his weapons missing Rivers and company will give the Bengals’ defense plenty of fits downfield. The Bengals have allowed 20 passing touchdowns and 10 pass plays of 40 yards or more this season. With just 22 sacks this season, if they aren’t able to get any pressure to Rivers he could have a monster day.
(My Prediction: 26 of 40 passing, 335 yards, three touchdowns)

Running Back:
With the 31st ranked run defense (Denver Broncos) next on the slate for Texan’s running back Arian Foster (13 rushing touchdowns), he looks like a shoe-in for a solid game now that he has returned to full-practice this week. Foster was dinged up pretty good a week ago against the Titans missing the last 10 minutes of the game. Foster has been a consistent fantasy point scorer in the Texans’ backfield and the Broncos defense has done nothing but surrender yards and scores this season; allow nearly 160 yards per game and have surrendered 22 rushing touchdowns. Foster is leading the NFL in rushing and figures to extend his lead on Sunday.
(My Prediction: 18 carries, 115 yards rushing, 4 receptions, 35 yards receiving, one touchdown)

Wide Receiver:
With so much on the line Monday night, it would be hard to imagine Saints quarterback Drew Brees not looking for his best weapon; wide receiver Marques Colston. The Falcons have been very good at home, but there defense has been suspect ranked 21st against the pass. In their last three home games the Faclons secondary has allowed an average of 250 yards passing and they have surrendred six passing touchdowns. Colston (82 rec, 1,002 yards, 7 Tds) has been steady all season and over his past three road games he has been targeted 24 times grabbed 15 passes for 251 yards with a score. It’s almost a certainty Brees will be looking his way often Monday night.
(My Prediction: 8 receptions, 95 yards, one touchdown)

Tight End:
Last week against the Redskins secondary tight end Jason Witten was huge catching 10 passes for 140 yards and a score. This week Jaguars tightend Marcedes Lewis will get his shot at the Redskins “iffy” defense ranked 30th in the league. Lewis has quietly become a scoring machine in the Jags passing game this season with nine receiving touchdowns. Lewis doesn’t seen many balls in his direction (averages five targets per game), but he makes the most of his opportunities. This week against the Redskins he could see plenty of chances.
(My Prediction: 5 receptions, 55 yards, one touchdown)

FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY WATCH

December 25th, 2010, Saturday

Fantasy Watch

Dallas Cowboys versus Arizona Cardinals

Larry Fitzgerald: Fitz Looks Ready To Fly

The Cardinal’s wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald is not having one of his typical super campaigns this season, but he is still on his way to 90 catches and well over 1,100 yards receiving this season. Even with all the changes his team has gone through at the quarterback position this season, Fitz still has 78 receptions, but only five touchdowns. Saturday’s matchup against the Cowboys 28th ranked pass defense could help change that.

Fitzgerald is still seeing plenty of balls in his directions this season (153 targets) and nothing should change this Saturday against the Cowboys secondary that has allowed 31 passing touchdowns allowed in 2010 (tied for most in league). Another concern for Dallas when trying to cover Fitz will be the yards after catch; the Cowboys have allowed 52 pass plays of 20 yards or more this season. There’s no question Fitz will have plenty of chances to make some catches, but will the Cowboys be able to keep him contained and wrapped up?

Sunday’s projections against the Cowboys.
(9 receptions, 115 yards passing, two touchdowns)

Jason Witten: Sure Handed Witten Keeps Rolling

The Cowboys’ tight end Jason Witten has been a hot fantasy play for owners and a big red-zone target for the Cowboys over the past several weeks. In his last four games Witten has seen 34 passes thrown his direction and has managed to snag 32 of them. Witten has also become a touchdown magnate over the past three games, scoring in all three (four touchdowns total).

The Cardinal’s pass defense is ranked 24th in the league and have allowed 18 passing touchdowns this season; including five to tight ends. With Witten being a much more utilized pass receiving option, the Cards’ secondary will have their hands full.

Sunday’s projections against the Cardinals.
(7 catches, 90 yards receiving, one touchdown)

Jon Kitna: Kitna Keeps Up Steady Play

The Cowboys’quarterback Jon Kitna has been playing very well over his past three games throwing five touchdowns against two interceptions. Kitna is also completing over 68 percent of his passes in his past three starts and has thrown for 714 yards. With the cardinals struggling against the run this season, the Cowboys are likely to spend a lot of time on the ground, but that should set up some deep shots off the play action.

Kitna executes a very good play fake and should be able to catch a few safeties flat footed on Saturday. Kitna has thrown 13 touchdowns in eight starts this season and shouldn’t need to rely much on his arm this week against Arizona, but he’ll still take his shots. The Cards’ secondary has allowed 48 pass plays of 20 yards or more and with only 26 sacks this season; expect Kitna and his receivers to be looking for the occasional big play downfield.

Sunday’s projections against the Cardinals.
(20 of 30 passing, 240 yards passing, two touchdowns, 20 yards rushing)

Tashard Choice: Cowboys Running Back Could Be Choice

The Cowboys’ running Tashard Choice could be the ball carrier of choice this coming weekend against the Cardinals. In the team’s last three matchups Choice has seen his workload increase (46 touches) and he has managed to find the end-zone in three of his last four contests. Since his touches have increased Choice is averaging 4.1 yards per carry and has totaled 217 yards from scrimmage in his last three games.

The Cardinal’s defense (ranked 30th) does not do a good job stopping the ground attacked allowing 145 yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry. This season the Cardinal’s defense has been toasted for 16 rushing touchdowns and have allowed 16 runs of 20 yards or more. In their last two games opponents have ran the ball out of the backfield 67 times and opposing runners have gain 282 yards on the ground. Expect the Cowboys to run the ball considerably Saturday night and Choice to get his share of carries.

Sunday’s projections against the Cardinals
(15 carries, 65 yards rushing, 3 catches, 20 yards receiving, one touchdown)

Just my take.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE FANTASY SPORTS ZONE (TARGET PRACTICE)

December 23rd, 2010 Thursday

Fantasy Football

Target Practice

In These Hands We Trust

Larry Fitzgerald has been a kind of quiet fantasy receiver this season (he really misses Kurt Warner), but over his past three games he has started making noise. Fitzgerald has been getting plenty of work recently and ranks in the top five among receivers with 32 targets and 19 receptions over the past three weeks. The Cardinal’s top receiver also has 258 yards receiving over the course of three games, but has not scored a touchdown in his last four games.

All that could change this Sunday when the Cowboys come to town. Fitzgerald will be lining up against the leagues 28th ranked pass defense that was just torched by quarterback Rex Grossman. Fitzgerald has only scored five times this season, but could be in line for a couple of end-zone appearances this weekend against the Cowboys’ secondary. The Cowboys’ have allowed 31 passing touchdowns this season, including four last weekend to the Redskins.

Fitzgerald’s numbers this season don’t jump off the page, but he is averaging nearly 11 targets per game this season and is on pace to pull down 90 passes and over 1,100 yards. He has lost a little value with the changes at quarterback this season in Arizona, but Fitzgerald still has the hands we trust.

Radar Watch

In My sites

My Fantasy Notes:

The Colts took another hit on the offensive side of the ball this past week with the loss of wide receiver Austin Collie (concussion) to the injured reserve. With Collie out Peyton Manning will have to look more to some of his other weapons; and one such worth watching could be wide receiver Pierre Garcon.

Garcon had a quiet afternoon last weekend with five catches for 44 yards, but that was with a healthy Collie in the lineup for a half. In the two games rior to Collie’s return Garcon was the one with the hot hand; 15 targets, 14 receptions, and three touchdowns. This weekend the Colts travel to Oakland to face the Raiders 5th ranked pass defense. Garcon (4 touchdowns this season) has remained a constant in the Colts passing game and could be primed to score against a defense that has allowed 26 touchdowns this season.

In Houston the Texan’s have a beast of a receiver in Andre Johnson, but traveling to Denver he will likely matchup against cornerback Champ Bailey. This season Bailey has been a beast at the corner spot shutting down receivers like Dwayne Bowe, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, and Mike Sims-Walker. With Johnson always drawing attention 4th year receiver Jacoby Jones has been seeing more action his direction.

In his last two games Jones has been targeted 18 times. He has also scored in two of his last three games; the Broncos’ secondary has allowed 25 touchdowns this season. Jones has not had a big game this season, but he’s worth watching on Sunday; he could be very productive against the Broncos’ 22nd ranked pass defense.

Target Leaders from Week 13 through 15

(unofficial numbers)

1.Roddy White, ATl (43 targets)
2.Reggie Wayne, IND (36 targets)
3.Andre Johnson, HOU (35 targets)
4.Larry Fitzgeralds, ARI (32 targets)
5.Santonio Holmes, NYJ (30 targets)
6.Santana Moss, WAS (30 targets)
7.Mike Williams, TB (30 targets)
8.Davone Bess, MIA (29 targets)
9.Marques Colston, NO (28 targets)
10.Mike Wallace, PIT (26 targets)
11.Kevin Walter, HOU (26 targets)
12.Wes Welker, NE (26 targets)

FSH NOTEBOOK: MY WEEKLY SURVIVAL

December 22nd, 2010, Wednesday

My Weekly Survivors

Last week was kind of a funny week for my fantasy squad; just about everyone scored which is always good, but most of my team didn’t do much else. With the exception of the Buccaneer’s wide receiver Mike Williams (15 points) and the Cowboys quarterback Jon Kitna (21 points) there was not a lot to cheer about. Williams dialed in on my numbers with 6 catches for 96 yards and a touchdown, while Kitna was a little better passing for over 300 yards with two touchdown tosses.

My duds included Brian Westbrook (8 points) who managed to salvage his performance with a late touchdown, but his 30 total yards hurt. Ronnie Brown (9 points) was not much different scoring once and total just 42 yards. My Achilles heel this season has been and was once again the tight end spot; Owen Daniels (4 points) caught just four passes for 45 yards.

This week it’s time to get serious, with just two weeks left I must concede any shot at the top two spots (trail by more than 100 points) unless there is a colossal meltdown. My fantasy team is locked in at number six and I still have a shot at third place (just 50 points back), but I need a two big weeks. I have very few big guns left, but this week I will be shooting from the hip and swinging for the fences.

Here are my picks for week 16….

QB-Matt Schaub, Houston Texans
The Bronco’s secondary is amongst the worst in the league and have allowed 25 touchdowns this season; 7th worst in the league. One reason for the Broncos woes in coverage, they lack any kind of pass rush; just 18 sacks this season. If given time Schaub can be as good as any quarterback in the league. With a weapon like Andre Johnson to throw to, Schaub is in line for a big passing day on Sunday.
(Projected: 25 fantasy points/ 325 yards passing, three touchdowns)

RB- Tashard Choice, Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys’ running back Tashard Choice has been seeing a steady diet of work over the past couple of weeks and has totaled 169 yards in his last three games. With Barber returning to action this Sunday and Jones looking “iffy”, Choices looks like the safe bet in the lineup this week. Choice has also scored a rushing touchdown in three of his last four games.
(Projected: 14 fantasy points/ 65 yards rushing, 3 catches, 20 yards receiving, one touchdown)

RB-Mike Tolbert, San Diego Chargers
The Charger’s running back has a good matchup on the road this week in Cincinnati against the league’s 22nd ranked run defense; the Bengals are allowing 4.6 yards per carry and have yielded 13 rushing touchdowns this season. Tolbert continues to be the favorite out of the Chargers’ backfield; he’ll see plenty of touches and should be able to find pay-dirt on the road. Tolbert has 11 rushing touchdowns this season and has scored in four of his last five games.
(Projected: 15 fantasy points/ 85 yards rushing, 1 catches, 10 yards receiving, one touchdown)

WR-Santana Moss, Washington Redskins
The Redskins will travel to Jacksonville in week 16 and should be licking their chops against the leagues’ 27th ranked pass defense. Even with the change at quarterback last week, it didn’t seem to bother the offense; 286 net yards passing, four touchdowns. Wide receiver Santana Moss also remained a hot commodity in the Redskins passing game (23 targets last two weeks) with 8 receptions for 72 yards and two scores last weekend against the Cowboys. Moss could be looking at similar results this weekend against a defense that has allowed 26 passing touchdowns this season.
(Projected: 17 fantasy points/ 7 catches, 110 yards, one touchdown)

WR-Marques Coltson, New Orleans Saints
The Saints travel to Atlanta to face the Falcons on Monday night and if you’re thinking this one is going to be a barn-burner; you’ll probably be right. The Saints wide receiver Marques Colston (7 touchdowns in 2010) leads the team with 126 targets this season and in his last two games quarterback Drew Brees has been calling his number quite often (24 targets). With such a huge matchup coming up this Monday, there’s little doubt Brees will be looking for his best receiver. Even if Colston only see’s eight to ten targets, you have to love his chances of collecting 70-90 yards and finding the end-zone.
(Projected: 15 fantasy points/ 6 catches, 95 yards, one touchdown)

TE-Ben Watson, Cleveland Browns
Ben Watson has been one of the more consistent options in the passing game for the Brown’s this season. Last week he and rookie quarterback Colt McCoy enjoyed one of their best games together; Watson caught seven passes for 92 yards. This week the two will face a Raven’s defense that has had its’ struggles against opposing tight ends.
(Projected: 14 fantasy points/ 6 catches, 80 yards, one touchdown)

PK-Neil Rackers, Houston Texans
The Texan’s offense has averaged over 23 points per game over their past seven games and this season Rackers has made 22 of 25 field goal attempts this season. This weekend they travel to Denver to face the Broncos who give up more points (29.6 pts per game) than any other team in the league; Rackers will be busy on Sunday.
(Projected: 9 fantasy points/ two field goals, three extra points)

My Previous starts

Week 1 (Total points-77)
QB Donovan McNabb (WAS)
RB Matt Forte (CHI)
RB Carnell Williams (TB)
WR Jeremy Maclin (PHI)
WR Jabar Gaffney (DEN)
TE Zach Miller (OAK)
K Joe Nedney (SF)

Week 2 (Total points-68)
QB Michael Vick (PHI)
RB Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG)
RB Rashard Mendenhall (PIT)
WR Nate Washington (TEN)
WR Greg Jennings (GB)
TE Chris Cooley (WAS)
K Nick Folk (NYJ)

Week 3 (Total points-87)
QB Tony Romo (DAL)
RB Darren McFadden
RB Ray Rice (BAL)
WR Austin Collie (IND)
WR Dez Bryant (DAL)
TE Brent Celek (PHI)
K Lawrence Tynes (NYG)

Week 4 (Total points-58)
QB Eli Manning (NYG)
RB Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX)
RB Frank Gore (SF)
WR Mark Clayton (STL)
WR Brandon Marshall (MIA)
TE John Carlson (SEA)
K Jeff Reed (PIT)

Week 5 (Total Points-72 points)
QB Drew Brees (NO)
RB Steven Jackson (STL)
RB Thomas Jones (KC)
WR Donald Driver (GB)
WR Calvin Johnson (DET)
TE Marcedes Lewis (JAX)
K Mike Nugent (CIN)

Week 6 (Total Points-83 points)
QB Peyton Manning (IND)
RB Ryan Torain (WASH)
RB LaDanian Tomlinson (NYJ)
WR Hakeem Nicks (NYG)
WR Kenny Britt (TEN)
TE Dallas Clark, (IND)
K Sebastian Janikowski (OAK)

Week 7 (Total Points-93 points)
QB Philip Rivers (SD)
RB Adrian Peterson (MIN)
RB Michael Turner (ATL)
WR Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)
WR Dwayne Bowe (KC)
TE Tony Gonzales (ATL)
K Matt Prater (DEN)

Week 8 (Total Points-82 points)
QB Kyle Orton (DEN)
RB Felix Jones (DAL)
RB Jamaal Charles (KC)
WR Brandon Lloyd (DEN)
WR Deion Branch (NE)
TE Tony Moeki (KC)
K Stephen Gostkowski (NE)

Week 9 (Total Points-79 points)
QB Aaron Rodgers (GB)
RB LeSean McCoy (PHI)
RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis (NE)
WR Steve Smith (NYG)
WR Patrick Crayton (SD)
TE Jacob Tamme (IND)
PK Mason Crosby

Week 10 (Total Points-78 points)
QB Joe Flacco (BAL)
RB LeGarrette Blount (TB)
RB Cedric Benson (CIN)
WR Roddy White (ATL)
WR Steve Johnson (BUF)
TE Brandon Pettigrew (DET)
PK Rob Bironas (TEN)

Week 11 (Total Points-73 points)
QB Matt Ryan (ATL)
RB Fred Jackson (BUF)
RB Peyton Hillis (CLE)
WR DeSean Jackson (PHI)
WR Percy Harvin (MIN)
TE Jermaine Gresham (CIN)
PK Dan Carpenter (MIA)

Week 12 (Total Points-55 points)
QB Matt Cassel (KC)
RB Chris Johnson (TEN)
RB Danny Woodhead (NE)
WR Santonio Holmes (NYJ)
WR Sidney Rice (MIN)
TE Heath Miller (PIT)
PK Matt Bryant (ATL)

Week 13 (Total Points-82 points)
QB Sam Bradford (STL)
RB Jonathan Stewart (CAR)
RB Arian Foster (HOU)
WR Terrell Owens (CIN)
WR Anquan Boldin (BAL)
TE Visanthe Shiancoe (MIN)
PK David Akers (PHI)

Week 14 (Total Points-91 points)
QB Jay Cutler (CHI)
RB Knowshon Moreno (DEN)
RB Tim Hightower (ARI)
WR Reggie Wayne (IND)
WR Mike Wallace (PIT)
TE Jason Witten (DAL)
PK Billy Cundiff (BAL)

Week 15 (Total Points-73 points)
QB Jon Kitna (DAL)
RB Brian Westbrook (SF)
RB Ronnie Brown (MIA)
WR Miles Austin (DAL)
WR Mike Williams (TB)
TE Owen Daniels (HOU)
PK Josh Brown (STL)

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

December 22nd, 2010 Wednesday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

AARON RODGERS RETURNS, BUT A BIG RISK
With this being championship weekend in most fantasy formats, now is not the time to be taking chances. The exception may be when you are talking about a quarterback like Aaron Rodgers; you just might have to roll the dice. This is exactly what the Packers may be facing this week as well with their playoff hopes hanging in the balance. Rodgers makes his return after missing one game because of a concussion suffered in week 14. His return is good news for Green Bay, but he will be facing one of the league’s toughest pass rushes (Giants). Rodgers has thrown 23 touchdowns this season, but he has also been sacked 27 times.
My Fantasy Read:
Rodgers when healthy is among the best quarterbacks in the league, but with two concussions already this season another hard hit could easily land him back on the bench. He’s a risky play against the Giants (42 sacks) this week, but one that is well worth it.

JACOBY FORD SEEING MORE ACTION
The Raiders speedy receiver has shown big play capability throughout the season and last Sunday against the Broncos was just another example. Ford took an end around run 71 yards to the house to help elevate the Raiders to a 39-23 win. Ford’s workload has been somewhat up and down this season but last week the rookie was targeted five times, caught three balls for 47 yards to go with his long touchdown run.
My Fantasy Read:
Ford is starting to see a steady diet of looks and touches each week. He has only 22 catches this season, but seven are for 20 yards or more. He has three total touchdowns this season and is averaging nearly 19 yards per catch. As explosive as this kid is (two pass plays over 45 yards, 71 yard touchdown run) he can only get better.

BRANDON LLOYD SHOULD BE A SAFE PLAY
The Tebow experiment is well under way and while it may not have been a complete success, it was not all that bad, especially for Brandon Lloyd fantasy owners. Tebow only threw 16 passes in the game, but the good news for owners five went to Lloyd. The Broncos’ top receiver would finish Sunday with four catches for 79 yards and a very fortunate 33 yard touchdown reception.
My Fantasy Read:
With Tebow under center Lloyd is not going to scare any opposing fantasy owners, but still he should remain a safe play this week against the Texans 32nd ranked secondary. With a game under his belt, expect Tebow to put the ball in the air a few more times this Sunday and we know where he will be looking (Lloyd).

JONATHAN STEWART COULD STRUGGLE THURSDAY
The Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart has been running ragged over the past several weeks averaging 115 yards rushing per game over his last four. Stewart has also been seeing plenty of work with 78 carries in his last four games. Last Sunday against the Cardinals was his best game of the season with 137 yards on 27 carries.
My Fantasy Read:
Stewart has been hot of late, but he has also been facing some of the bottom half ranked run defenses; Cards-30th, Browns-25th, Seahawks-21st. Thursday night he’ll face the league’s best run defense (Steelers) that has not allowed a single 100-yard rusher this season. The Patriots BenJarvus Green-Ellis’ 87 yards in week 10 is the best any runner has done this season against the Steel-Curtain.