FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 2nd, 2023

Saturday Late-Evening Edition

2023 Fantasy Draft Day: On the Clock

(12-Team, PPR format, Fantasy Calculator ADP)

RB-Tony Pollard, Current ADP 2.03 - the Cowboys running back enjoyed his best season as a professional in 2022 totaling 1,378 yards of offense (1,007 yards, 371 yards receiving), adding 9 rushing touchdowns and 3 receiving. Pollard finished the 2022 season as the No.9 fantasy running back. Right now he’s going as an early 2nd round pick in fantasy drafts.

WR-Garrett Wilson, Current ADP 2.04 - the Jets receiver finished his 2022 campaign earning the AP Rookie of the Year award. In his first season Wilson grabbed 83 balls for 1,103 yards receiving with 4 touchdowns. He finished 2022 as the No.28 fantasy receiver, but with a Hall of Fame quarterback under center in New York, Wilson appears to be on a trajectory to make a huge jump. He’s also an early 2nd round pick in fantasy drafts right now.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 2nd, 2023

Saturday Late-Evening Edition

2023 Fantasy Draft Day: On the Clock

(12-Team, PPR format, Fantasy Calculator ADP)

WR-Tyreek Hill, Current ADP 1.04 - the Dolphins dynamic wide receiver has finished 2nd (2022), 6th (2021), and 2nd (2020) in fantasy scoring over the past three seasons. He’s coming off a season with career highs in yards receiving (1,710), receptions (119), and targets (170). He’s an elite WR1 that is going early in the 1st round of fantasy drafts.

WR-Stefon Diggs, Current ADP 1.08 - the Bills wideout finished the 2022 season as the No.4 fantasy receiver. In his three seasons with the Bills Diggs has the most receptions (tied with Davante Adams) of any receiver with 338 and has averaged more than 160 targets per season. He’s a mid-to-late first rounder in fantasy drafts this season.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 2nd, 2023

Saturday Late-Evening Edition

2023 Draft Day Watch

As you are preparing for your imminent fantasy draft, you should  be thinking about what players will fall to your spot throughout the draft and be prepared to adjust on the fly as picks from left field occur.

The Draft is not a sprint, it’s a marathon and you should not be playing checkers, but more like chess as you make your selections and navigate your way to your perfect draft.

As the draft gets started, if you are in position with an early pick, one of the first two running backs you need to be looking at is Austin Ekeler. Ekeler was the No.1 fantasy scoring running back in 2022 and has played in 33 of the teams past 34 games. With 107 receptions last season he is the premiere fantasy ppr receiving back.

Where people are currently ranking wide receiver Davante Adams, he’s a great early to mid 2nd round or beyond pick. Adams has been prolific his past three seasons and even if his numbers take a slight hit with a new quarterback in Las Vegas, he’s still a top 5 or 6 fantasy receiver. In the 2nd round he is coming off most boards as the WR9.

A little further into your draft, you can look for the Browns Amari Cooper to be available in the 3rd round to pair up with your Adams pick. Cooper is coming off a strong 2022 season where he finished as the No.15 fantasy receiver grabbing 78 balls for 1,160 yards receiving and 9 touchdowns. In 2022 Cooper only had his quarterback DeShaun Watson for six games. With a full camp under their belts, Cooper is a strong candidate to make a jump forward.

The Packers running back Aaron Jones was last season's No.11 fantasy running back and he’s currently being drafted as the RB16 around the mid-4th round. Last season Jones totaled over 1,500 yards of offense and scored 7 total touchdowns in 2022, very reachable numbers in 2023.

In a new city and a new opportunity, the whispers coming out of the New York Giants training camp about their starting tight end Darren Waller are getting louder. Waller had a down year in 2022 playing in only 9 games, but he was still scoring as a Top-10 fantasy tight end. He’s in a new place and certainly has the talent to be a Top-5 Fantasy, just as he was in 2020, when he finished as the No.2 fantasy tight end. He’s currently coming off draft boards as an early 6th round pick, but he’s moving up.

Steelers wide receiver George Pickens' star is on the rise this season. He finished 2022 as the No.45 fantasy receiver, but there’s no question about his talent and ability, he just needs the opportunity. Pickens was targeted just 84 times last season, a number he will surely surpass in 2023. Currently coming off the draft boards as the WR34, he is an early 7th round pick.

As we truck along into the mid-rounds of your draft a possible steal also in the 7th round could be quarterback DeShaun Watson. Watson returned to action in 2022 after sitting out the entire 2021 season. He only played six games last season, but it was enough to shake the rust. If he regains his 2020 form (finished as the No.5 fantasy QB), he’s the 9th quarterback coming off the board in round 7th, VALUE. 

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 1st, 2023

Friday Late-Evening Edition

My Top 10 Fantasy Football 

TE Rankings for 2023

Often considered the safety blanket for the quarterback position, today’s tight ends have morphed into much more than that. Viable weapons in the passing game, many of today’s tight ends are proving to be exceptional pass catchers with big fantasy upside.

Here’s my Top-10 at the tight end position:

The Top-10

1. Travis Kelce

2. Mark Andrews

3. TJ Hockenson

4. Darren Waller

5. George Kittle

6. Evan Engram

7. Dallas Goedert

8. David Njoku

9. Kyle Pitts

10. Dalton Schultz

The Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce has separated himself into his own tier at the position. Kelce has finished as the No.1 fantasy scoring tight end four out of the last five seasons. He is King of the Hill until someone comes along and knocks him down.

With his arrival to New York in the off-season, the Giants tight end Darren Waller has a chance to return to his elite play. If Waller stays healthy, he has the tools and ability to produce at a high level. Back in 2020 Waller was the No.2 fantasy scoring tight end catching 107 passes (led all tight ends), finishing right behind Kelce.

My number 10 ranked tight end is Dalton Schultz. The former Cowboys tight end finds himself in Houston with very little competition for the leading receiver spot. Schultz finished 2022 as the No.13 fantasy scoring tight end and could easily improve his position this season with a young rookie quarterback (C.J. Stroud) under center.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 1st, 2023

Friday Evening Edition

My Top 10 Fantasy Football 

WR Rankings for 2023

We are moving right along with my 2023 Fantasy Rankings. I’ve looked at the ball carriers, the passers, now it’s time to look over my Wide receivers.

The Top-10

1. Justin Jefferson

2. Ja'Marr Chase

3. Tyreek Hill

4. Stefon Diggs

5. Davante Adams

6. Cooper Kupp

7. CeeDee Lamb

8. AJ Brown

9. Amon-Ra St. Brown

10. Garrett Wilson

There’s no shock here with the Vikings Justin Jefferson sitting in the top spot, a well-deserved honor after his epic 2022 season. While Jefferson appears to be the consensus number one wide receiver in most drafts and overall, it’s hard to argue the obvious number two receiver is the Bengals Ja’Marr Chase. The Bengals explosive receiver is a highlight reel in his own right and last season his No.4 fantasy receiver finish has made him one of the top options to target in your draft.

I’ve seen a few of the Expert mock drafts and not to my surprise, I have been seeing Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams getting selected in the 1st round. Now I have him as my number five, where I believe he belongs, but some Experts are in my opinion undervaluing Adams. I’ll just say I believe in his talents, skill, and abilities and his 100 receptions and 14 touchdowns from a year ago.

But as I go down the list it’s worth noting, I have adjusted Rams receiver Cooper Kupp down a couple of spots due to his recent injury. He’s still a top six fantasy receiver as long as his current injury doesn’t linger. It’s hard to bet against a kid that has proven to be as good as Kupp has played. Over the past two seasons Kupp has been the number one fantasy scoring receiver.

The Next 10.

11. Jaylen Waddle

12. Chris Olave

13. DeVonta Smith

14. Amari Cooper

15. Tee Higgins

16. DK Metcalf

17. Calvin Ridley

18. DeAndre Hopkins

19. Keenan Allen

20. Deebo Samuel

Rounding out the bottom 10 and slotting in at the number 14, is the Browns wide receiver Amari Cooper. Last season Cooper finished as the No.18 fantasy scoring receiver with his 2023 starting quarterback (DeShaun Watson) playing in only six games. This season Cooper will team up with Watson for the full go and has the potential of putting up strong numbers in 2023.

There is a lot of hype around the Jaguars wide receiver Calvin Ridley. While Ridley was fantastic a few years ago (in 2020), he’s returning from missing an entire season and will be playing with a new team. There’s no question about the talent and ability, but I need to see it first. He’s still a Top-20 receiver in my book, but with other mouths like Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram to feed, it could be tough for him to rise much higher.

I have DeAndre Hopkins at number 18, ranking a little higher than his current ADP (Fantasy Calculator). He’s coming off a subpar and shortened 2022 season, but even though he only played in 9 games his numbers are worth noting. Hopkins finished the season as the No.9 fantasy receiver (minimum 90 targets) and from weeks 7 through 15 he was the No.6 fantasy receiver. Hopkins ceiling may take a slight hit playing on the Titans, a team that likes to run with ball with running back Derrick Henry.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 31st, 2023

Thursday Late-Evening Edition

My Top 10 Fantasy Football 

RB Rankings for 2023

With the signal-callers out of the way, it’s time to look at the workhorses in the backfield. Here are my Top-10 for the start of the 2023 season.

The Top-10

1. Christian McCaffrey

2. Austin Ekeler

3. Nick Chubb

4. Saquon Barkley

5. Bijan Robinson

6. Tony Pollard

7. Derrick Henry

8. Josh Jacobs

9. Rhamondre Stevenson

10. Najee Harris

With running back Kareem Hunt no longer in Cleveland, this paves the way for running back Nick Chubb to improve upon his No.7 fantasy scoring (points-per-game) finish in 2022. Last season the Browns running back posted 1,525 yards rushing (career high) and 12 rushing touchdowns (tying-career high). Chubb will be running behind one of the best O-lines in the game this season and at the youthful age of 27, he’s primed for a big year.

The Giants running back Saquon Barkley is coming off a bounce back year in 2022 (finished as the No.5 fantasy running back) after his disappointing 2021 season (finished as No.29), minimum of 10 games played. Last season Barkley set a career high with 1,312 yards rushing while posting 10 rushing scores (2nd most in his career). More than a full season removed from his ACL tear that cut his 2021 season, Barkley is a Top-10 fantasy running back heading into the 2023 season with Top-5 tendencies.

The Steelers running back Najee Harris rounds out the Top-10, coming in at number 10. Harris was disappointing in 2022 for fantasy owners finishing as the No.19 fantasy scoring running back (minimum 10 games). Harris took a step back in 2022, rushing for over 160 yards less than the previous season and catching 33 fewer balls. It’s no secret Harris played with an injury last season which could have played a big role in his regression. The Steelers offense looks a bit different this preseason (improved) and could be set up to take some big steps forward when the regular season starts. Now healthy, Harris figures to again lead the ground attack and should benefit greatly.

The Next 10.

11. Breece Hall

12. Travis Etienne Jr.

13. Aaron Jones

14. Joe Mixon

15. Dameon Pierce

16. Jahmyr Gibbs

17. Kenneth Walker

18. Alexander Matison

19. JK Dobbins

20. Alvin Kamara

The Texans running back Dameon Pierce slots in at number 15 in my rankings. He’s coming off a shortened 2022 season where he finished as the No.20 fantasy scoring running back. Pierce totaled over 1,000 yards with 5 touchdowns in his rookie campaign. Pierce has the talent and ability to improve upon last season’s numbers and if he plays a larger role in the offense than originally thought, he’s got a chance at finishing as a borderline RB1/RB2.

Notably missing is running back Jonathan Taylor. In a 12-Team format, I am not willing to risk the draft capital with an early round pick. I’d rather sit on him and get him as my third RB or pass altogether.

Another notable back absent from my Top-20 is Miles Sanders, just missing the cut. Last season he finished as the RB22 in fantasy scoring, so I am pretty comfortable where I have him. 

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 31st, 2023

Thursday Evening Edition

My Top 10 Fantasy Football 

QB Rankings for 2023

The NFL kicks off in less than one week and this coming weekend promises to be the biggest draft weekend of the season. So with no time to lose here is my Top-10 Quarterbacks for the start of the 2023 season.

The Top-10

1. Patrick Mahomes

2. Josh Allen

3. Jalen Hurts

4. Joe Burrow

5. Lamar Jackson

6. Justin Fields

7. Justin Herbert

8. Trevor Lawrence

9. Deshaun Watson

10. Dak Prescott

Last season, quarterback Patrick Mahomes was sensational passing for over 5,000 yards for the 2022 regular season. But do you know who was better on a fantasy points-per-game basis? No, not Josh Allen, but Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts. 

While the top three could be considered interchangeable, in 2022 Hurts broke out with a fantastic campaign, tossing 22 touchdowns, while completing 66.5% of his passes, and adding 13 rushing touchdowns. With that type of prolific production, I have Hurts ranked as number three, but he could easily vault to the top spot.

Last season, the Bears 2nd year quarterback Justin Fields took over the reins and went on an exceptional run of his own from weeks 7 through 15 (missing only week 12). During this stretch Fields posted 7 straight games with 19 or more fantasy points, including two games over 39. Fields finished as the No.6 fantasy quarterback in 2022 and has a good chance at repeating or improving in 2023.

The Browns starting quarterback Deshaun Watson, after missing the full 2021 season, played in less than half of the 2022 season, 6 games. The rust from his layoff showed last season, as Watson finished as the No.25 fantasy (points-per-game) scoring quarterback. This coming after finishing as the No.5 fantasy QB in 2020, his last full season played. With a full training camp under his belt and a full complement of weapons, Watson is poised for the Top-10 and could push for a Top-5 spot in 2023..

Just missing the Top-10, but still start-worthy in 12-team leagues are quarterbacks, (Dolphins) Tua Tagovailoa and (Giants) Daniel Jones. With the Dolphins passer, his health will be the biggest concern. As long as Tua stays healthy, he’s a Top-10 all day.

With the Giants signal caller, Jones just needs to build off his 2022 season (finished as the No.10 fantasy scoring QB). Six of his final eight games Jones scored no fewer than 17 fantasy points, eclipsing 20 points three times. Like Tua, Jones is a borderline Top-10.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 29th, 2023

Tuesday Evening Edition

My Top 10 Fantasy Football 

Draft Rankings for 2023

(PPR Format)

The final weekend and probably busiest weekend of fantasy draft season is creeping towards us and with so much excitement afoot it’s time to dial in your strategy and hone in on your 1st round picks.

Below are my Top 10 and full 1st round (12-team league) rankings for 2023 and of course, there’s no surprise here with my top pick of Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson. This season the Vikings wideout is the consensus number one pick in most rankings and well deserved. In 2022, Jefferson led all receivers with 128 receptions and posted the 6th best All-Time receiving yards mark with 1,809.

The Top-10

1. Justin Jefferson

2. Ja'Marr Chase

3. Christian McCaffrey

4. Austin Ekeler

5. Cooper Kupp

6. Tyreek Hill

7. Travis Kelce

8. Saquon Barkley

9. Stefon Diggs

10. Davante Adams

The Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase falls in at number Two. An incredible talent and highlight-reel, Chase scored double-digit fantasy points in every game he played last season. He’s entering season number three and appears poised to post big numbers in 2023.

In the PPR format, I had to boost Chargers running back Austin Ekeler to the number four spot. Ekeler is a scoring machine with 38 combined touchdowns over the past two seasons and in 2022 he finished tied for the 5th spot in fantasy points per game (ppr). Perhaps his best stat is playing in all 33 games the past two seasons.

With a full season of health under his belt, I am probably higher on running back Saquon Barkley than most. In 2022 Barkley posted 295 carries, played in 16 games, and finished 5th in fantasy scoring for running backs. Healthy and ready to go in 2023, Barkley should only improve on those numbers.

Another fantasy wide receiver I am excited about more than most others is Davante Adams. I am not sure why so many are down on the Raiders receiver this year. Yes, he’s getting a new quarterback, but he’s still an elite receiver. His numbers over the past three seasons have been prolific. Since 2020 Adams has 4,443 receiving yards and 338 receptions, both rank first among fantasy wide receivers.

And filling out the tail end of Round One…

11. CeeDee Lamb

12. AJ Brown

The Eagles receiver AJ Brown was solid in 2022, especially down the stretch. For the season Brown was the number eight fantasy scoring receiver. In his last six games he posted no fewer than 13 fantasy points, eclipsing 17 or more points in four of those six games.

Set your sights high and draft with confidence.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 28th, 2023

Monday Evening Edition

Fantasy Sleepers: Diamonds in the Rough

One of the secrets to success in fantasy football is not only drafting your studs, and avoiding injuries (usually an impossibility), but finding hidden value in your drafts and throughout the season. During the season, injuries are going to happen, so work the Waiver-wire every week.

But right now, it’s Draft season, so what we are looking for are those sleepers or Diamonds in the Rough.

In Kansas City, with the departure of Tyreek Hill in 2022 (to Miami), the Chiefs had to put together a makeshift receiving core with a lot of names and different faces. One name and one face that will be returning in 2023 is 2nd year wideout, Skyy Moore. Last season Moore barely saw any airtime in the Chiefs high octane offense, but 2023 presents a huge opportunity for the young receiver. The 2022 Second round pick will have a great shot at a completely different outlook in 2023. Listed as the team’s number two wideout, Moore is poised to take huge strides forward this season and with a 10th round ADP, he’s got tremendous value as a sleeper with high return.

An even deeper sleeper I will be eyeing beyond the 12th round with a current ADP of 13.04, is the Packers wide receiver Romeo Doubs. The off-season changes in Green Bay may have many looking elsewhere for fantasy impact, but last season Doubs did display a little something to catch the eye of fantasy owners. This preseason he has been sharp and with a 3rd year quarterback who looks primed for a nice season himself, Doubs and (Jordan) Love are already showing some nice chemistry. Doubs is not going to blow off the doors, but he was second leading wide receiver on the team with 42 receptions (and 67 targets). With Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb now in New York, there are over 140 targets available. Doubs has lots of flex appeal in 2023.

Last season in Denver there was so much disappointment with how the team performed, in particular the offense. The Russell Wilson led passing attack was mediocre at best and none of their wide receivers finished in the Top-20. While that was bad, one good thing that came out of last season was the arrival of tight end Greg Dulcich. Dulcich missed the first five games due to injury, but from week 6 on he played in 10 games, finishing as the No.17 fantasy tight end with 33 receptions, 411 yards receiving, and 2 touchdowns. His scoring line is hardly anything to get excited about, but there’s great potential. Dulcich is a highly skilled and athletic pass catcher and with the arrival of head coach Sean Payton, his skill figure to get utilized. His average ADP at 14.02, puts him at an early TE2 and late enough to draft a late round stash. In Payton’s offense Dulcich should have a chance at being a solid TE1. 

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 28th, 2023

Monday Evening Edition

On My Radar: Draft Day Targets

Now that the draft season has heated up, it’s time to talk about my Draft Day targets. These are the players that I will be looking to take at the right time during my several upcoming drafts. I want value, but I am also looking for opportunity with upside.

Diving in deep, let’s start with the early rounds.

I’ve only participated in a couple of drafts thus far this season. But as I read some of the latest news and watch all of the preseason action, the word on the Fantasy Football Street is wide receivers are going early. It’s not hard to make this argument when you consider the top two consensus receivers are the Vikings Justin Jefferson (128 receptions in 2022) and the Bengals Ja’Marr Chase (over 20 FPG in 2022).

In most of my drafts, I am slotted beyond the 6th spot, so with the receiving landscape being so rich in talent the receiver I am most interested in taking as a last first or early 2nd round pick is Davante Adams. Over the past three seasons Adams has averaged 1,481 yards receiving, 14.3 receiving touchdowns, and 112.6 receptions each season. In his first year in Las Vegas his production level was on par with these averages. In 2022 his finished as the third highest scoring fantasy wide receiver playing in all 17 games. Even with a new quarterback (Jimmy Garappolo) this season, I don’t see a big fall off for Adams. Even with a 5-8% regression he finishes as a top 5 wideout. He’s a safe pick with great value.

Still in the early rounds, two running backs that I have been seeing around the 3rd and 4th round turn are (Packers) Aaron Jones and (Cardinals) James Conner. Both backs offer RB1 value, each finishing in the top 12 last season in fantasy points per game. Jones registered over 1,500 yards from scrimmage in 2022, while Conner finished as a top 10 fantasy running back. Both are going late enough you can bypass in the first two rounds pick up Jones in the late 3rd or grab Conner a little later in the 4th.

As we skate along into the mid-rounds, this about the time to start looking for my tight end and this season my sights are set on the Giants Darren Waller. Listening to a lot of Training camp talk on the radio and TV, there’s a buzz around Waller in New York. Looking back at his 2019 and 2020 seasons with the Raiders, Waller stormed onto the fantasy scene posting TE1 numbers, finishing as the No.5 fantasy tight end in 2019 and No.2 in 2020. Last season was a bust playing in the shadow of (Davante) Adams, but now that he’s in New York, Waller absolutely has the talent to be the number one option for quarterback Daniel Jones.

Finally, this Draft Day target is not a late round flyer, but in my opinion possibly a steal in the 7th round or later, Steelers wide receiver George Pickens. In my opinion, Pickens is dynamic and showed a lot of flash last season when given the opportunity. Last season compared to other receivers with at least 80 targets, Pickens finished 6th in yards per reception with 15.4 yards per catch. His quarterback has been looking good this preseason and figures to take a few steps forward, so I am expecting good things from Pickens. Last season he finished as the No.52 fantasy wideout, this season I believe he could make a leap to a borderline WR2/WR3 (12 team leagues). 

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 27th, 2023
Sunday Afternoon Edition

Draft Day is Here Again

Fantasy football excitement is in the air, as mock drafts churn out like basketball shoes at a Nike factory. Fantasy owners are hitting the magazine stands to pick up their favorite Mag with the latest rankings and player reviews.

As what has become the ritual for many of others who play fantasy, I too have picked up my favorite fantasy magazine or two. With a little over a week left before my final four league drafts, I will be busy over the next several days taking notes, highlighting the players I will be coveting, and updating my current password for my favorite sites for fantasy info and knowledge.

There have been a lot of changes this off season, some key player switches, and some interesting developments in the pre-draft fantasy football landscape. As I prepare for my upcoming drafts, I’ll be looking at the Josh Jacobs situation (his return to the Raiders), the effect of Aaron Rodgers on the Jets and their passing game, the arrival of DeAndre Hopkins in Tennessee, and the impact & influence of the Broncos new head coach Sean Payton. These are only a few considerations that will have to be looked at.

While the Fantasy football sites and magazines are a great source of information to cover those topics, your local supermarket is going to be an essential necessity for Draft Day, if you are to have a successful draft.

Some of the keys that will be needed besides your magazines and website addresses should include the following supplies, beer, ice, chips, dips, water, sides, and of course more beer.

I would suggest stocking heavily on cold beverages, should your draft go sideways, they could come in handy. 

Remember Draft Day is supposed to be a fun-filled day and one that you enjoy. Stay calm, trust your notes, and for goodness sakes, enjoy an occasional cold one during the process.

Good luck and Happy drafting.

That's my take!
~David G. Ortega