FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

December 17th, 2011, Saturday

David’s Daily Digest

FantasyNotes:

Risky Plays for Week 15…

Sanchez could face a tough test….the Jets take their show on theroad this weekend, a place where quarterback Mark Sanchez has just twotouchdowns in his last three (raod) starts. The Eagles defense is ranked just12^th against the pass this season, but they have managed 42 sacks and 12 picks this season. The road is a place that has not been too kind for Sanchezas of late, fantasy owners may want to consider other options (if available).

Bears defense could tame the Beast ….runningback Marshawn Lynch has been a wrecking ball tearing through opposing defensesaveraging 114 yards on the ground in his last five games. This week his “beastmode” could be tamed and meet its’ match when he takes the field against theBears defense. The Bears 10^th ranked run defense has not allowed asingle 100-yard rusher in their last 8 games (since week 5 against the Lions);and they have not allowed a single rushing touchdown in their last 8 quartersplayed. Lynch will get a ton of work, but could struggle to find many yards onSunday.

Jackson could get lost on Revis Island…..theEagles tumultuous receiver DeSean Jackson has been held in check most of theseason recording just two 100-yard receiving games this season. On Sunday he issure to spend quite a bit of time on Revis Island and could very well likely pulla disappearing act; not what fantasy owners need during championship week. Hehas recorded four or less catches eight times this season and only topped the74-yard receiving mark four times (in 12 games); he’s reward this season hardlyseems worth the risk.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

December 16th, 2011, Friday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

Trends for your Championship run…

Ryan Grant’s stock on the rise…With running back James Starks currently slowed down with a bad wheel (ankle), even if he plays Grant figures to see the bulk of the work load on Sunday against the Chiefs 26th ranked run defense. Grant is coming off his best game of the season and looks to be strong bet to find pay-dirt for his second consecutive game and a nice chunk of yardage.

McGahee should be on your radar….depsite coming off a tough 34-yard rushing effort against the Bears in week 14, the Broncos running back Willis McGahee has eclipsed the century mark in two of his last three starts. On Sunday he’ll face the league’s 13th ranked run defense that was pummeled a week ago for 170 yards by the Redskins running game. Fantasy owners should look for McGahee to gash the Pats for some good numbers on the ground and at least one trip to the end-zone.

AJ Green ready to come alive…..after a quiet week 14 with just five catches for 59 yards, the Bengals rookie receiver looks primed to have a big game on Sunday against the Rams. Even with the leagues 8th ranked pass defense the Rams secondary was lit up a week ago by the Seahawks Tarvaris Jackson; 21 of 32 for 224 yards. Green is a much greater talent that what the Rams faced a week ago and seems to be the hot target for quarterback Andy Dalton; 18 targets in the last two weeks with many more on Sunday.

Garcon could be the man on Sunday…..while the Colts will be searching for their first win of the season at home on Sunday against the Titans, I am expect to see Dan Orlovsky to continue to heavily seek out Colts receiver Pierre Garcon. In the last two games that Orlovsky has started Garcon has caught 14 passes for 196 yards with two touchdowns on 24 targets. With Reggie Wayne on the other side, Garcon should once again be the man in the Colts passing attack.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY MORNING GAMETIME

December 4th, 2011 Sunday

Sunday Morning Gametime

My quick notes:

Who to Watch

Tonight’s Sunday night matchup between the Saints and Lions could end up being a much closer track meet than what saw last Monday between the Saints and Giants. Matthew Stafford has shown this season he has the talent to run with the big dogs, but he’s also got the horses. The Saints are 27th against the pass and could have a lot of matchup problems with some of the Lions big targets. I like Stafford to break out of his funk and play well on the road.

The Cowboys have been rolling along the past several weeks and a big reason has been the consistent play of quarterback Tony Romo. On the road today, he’ll have a chance to continue his winning ways and solid play when the Cowboys meet the Cardinals in Arizona. The Cards rank 25th against the pass and allow more than 250 yards in the air; Romo should be solid today.

Despite the notion that “he can’t” I would suggest sticking with your instincts and keep Tebow in your lineup. He’s on the road today to take on Minnesota, and while the Broncos have been predominantly a running team, I expect to see a few more balls in the air. This could be the week where we see more of Tebow the passer and not just Tebow the playmaker. Either way facing the leagues 29th ranked pass defense could mean for a big game for Tebow.

Who to Avoid

It looks like Rams quarterback Sam Bradford (game-time decision) is sitting on the fence and with AJ Feeley taking first team snaps this week in practice, this could be a situation well worth avoiding all together. The Rams are on the road today and face a daunting task when they travel to San Francisco to play the 49ers.

The Cardinals Beanie Wells is coming off a career game, so the tendency is to stick him in your line-up. While the Cowboys have not been stout versus the run, they have good speed on the defensive side and could be playing most of this game from out front. Wells will become less of a factor if the Cards have to play catchup; Wells could be risky so you may want to look at better options if available.


My Picks Today

My “Four Horsemen”

I stepped away for a while, but today I am feeling good about quite a few players, so let’s take another shot at our four riders for week 13;

Matthew Stafford; the kid has been struggling some, but I look for a bounce back performance tonight against a Saint team that will have to bring pressure and could leave a few Lions in single coverage. Stafford should go for a nifty 300 with at least two touchdowns tonight.

Reggie Bush; if you play PPR then this is your man for Sundya. Taking on the Raiders, Bush should be the focus out of the backfield and in space. The Raiders run defense is ranked 27th and will have trouble slowing down Bush; he’s also a threat to grab a number of passes out of the backfield. I expect at least 125 yards of total offense with 4-5 grabs and a trip to the end-zone.

Brandon Lloyd; despite the possible change at quarterback today, I still like Lloyd. He is the Rams best weapon and whether it’s Feeley or Bradford, he’ll see more than his share of targets; averaging double-digits since becoming a Ram. The 49ers boast a stingy defense, but they do surrender over 240 yards per game and have allowed 15 passing touchdowns. I expect Lloyd to grab a number of passes with at least one trip to the end-zone.

Aaron Hernandez; The Colts are well of aware of the Patriots tight ends, but they won’t be able to cover both. Gronkowski has been the focus over recent weeks, but with Hernandez coming off consecutive seven target games I expect to see Brady look his way a little more often this Sunday. Hernandez has not a big game since week one, but could turn in a huge day today against the Colts; six catches, 85 yards and a score.

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

December 3rd, 2011, Saturday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

Frank Gore: A Gold Rush of a Niner
Thus far through 12 weeks of football this season the Niners running back Frank Gore has remained a relatively steady fantasy start for owners throughout, especially over the past month and a half (with the exception of his week 10 early exit). Last week the Niners starting ball carrier was limited to just 39 yards on the ground and 48 yards of offense overall, but that was facing the Baltimore Ravens number three ranked run defense (probably a game you may have considered sitting Gore).

Prior to that the former Miami Hurricane had been running extremely well topping the 100-yard rushing mark in 5 of his last 7 starts and scoring no fewer than 9 fantasy points in six of those games; standard scoring. Gore is the number six leading rusher in the NFL with 909 yards on the ground to go with his 101 receiving yards and 5 rushing touchdowns. He’s averaging a very nice 4.5 yards per carry and has shown great reliability with well over 200 touches this season and just two turnovers. On Sunday Gore will be showcasing his talents against the St. Louis Rams and their 32nd ranked run defense, that allow a league worst 159 yards on the ground.

My Analysis: Gore has been solid this season and on Sunday he has a fantastic matchup against the Rams. Quarterback Alex Smith has been a little shaky turning over the ball over lately with three of his five interceptions this season coming in the last three games. The Niners will likely stick with the ground assault against the league’s worst run defense. In his last two games against the Rams Gore has averaged 142 yards of offense, including 97 yards rushing; he also has three rushing touchdowns. Expect the trend to continue and look for a big game from Gore once again.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

December 1st, 2011 Thursday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

Matthew Stafford: A Young Lion Ready to Roar
The past three weeks for quarterback Matt Stafford and the Lions have not been too kind; the team is 1-2 and Stafford has turned the ball over nine times. After staring out strong this season and coming off a three touchdown and no interception effort against the Broncos in week 8, Stafford has been inconsistent and unlucky. His accuracy may be in question, but with a 65% completion rate, it’s more about decision making than accuracy.

Stafford has also been playing with a fractured index finger on his throwing hand, so his nine picks and any inaccuracy from the pocket would be understandable (although he has refuted any notion). Whether is has been his hand or not, something has been wrong with Stafford as of late. Maybe it’s a confidence issue with some of his throws or lack of, but this Sunday night against the Saints it could all change.

Stafford will shed the protective glove and splint he has been wearing over the past several weeks and hoping to return closer to the form that has led him to 26 touchdowns and over 3,000 yards passing. In week 13 he faces a secondary ranked 27th against the pass and a defense that has also allowed 18 touchdowns to just six picks. With an array of weapons like Megatron, Pettigrew, Burleson, and Scheffler, Stafford could be looking at a huge night of passing with lots of success.

My analysis: The Saints defense played from in front most of Monday night allowing the Giants and quarterback Eli Manning to spray the ball around the field to the tune of 400 yards in the air. One thing to note is the defense also had to rely on a lot of blitzing to create pressure, something the Lions will surely be looking for. This Sunday night’s matchup is likely to take on the same look and could lead to a very big passing night for Stafford. The Lions, just like the Giants of late struggle with the ground game (ranked 22nd) and will rely heavily on attacking the Saints suspect secondary. Start Stafford with a lot of confidence.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 30th, 2011 Wednesday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

ANDRE JOHNSON: To Start or Not-To Start
The Texans All-Pro receiver, Andre Johnson (knee) finally made his return to the field last Sunday against the Jaguars, after missing the past six games. His return was far from triumphant (just two catches for 22 yards), but it was a good sign for fantasy owners who will be hoping to see him return to form in week 14 (during the fantasy playoffs). That’s the good news.

The bad news for fantasy owners hoping to play Johnson now and into the playoffs; who will be under center for the Texans? Following their week 10 in over the Buccaneers, the Texans lost their starter Matt Schaub for the season with a foot injury and just when it looked “all systems go” with back up quarterback Matt Lienart under center, he went down in week 12 with a broken collarbone. Now the Texans are left with an inexperienced rookie quarterback at the helm.

We know that rookie T.J Yates (North Carolina) will be taking the snaps on Sunday, but what we don’t know is how this is going to impact the offense and the passing game for fantasy owners. For those of us that have been riding all season long without one of our biggest weapons (Johnson), we could be submitting our lineups on Sunday with one of our biggest guns firing blanks or will he.

I am always the optimist and when I consider how high I drafted Johnson back in August, I can’t imagine sitting him on Sunday and seeing my fantasy team go down without all of my best players. For some it may look like fantasy-suicide, but is it really. On Sunday when Yates entered the game Johnson had only been targeted just once, a play in the first half that was nullified because of a penalty. In the second half Yates would look for #80 three times connecting twice for 22 yards.

While these numbers are nowhere near staggering it should be mentioned also that the Texans where well in control leading 20-10 and did not have to lean much on the pass. So if you project these numbers some, if Yates had started the game and the Jaguars offense been a little more effective in the early going, Johnson may have had a chance to see as many as six to seven targets (maybe a couple more in the early going) throughout the game.

My Analysis: This Sunday’s matchup with the Falcons would appear to pit the Texans up against an offense that could force them to be a little less conservative and have to keep pace. I would not expect a shoot-out of any sort, but the Falcons will certainly be more capable of putting up more than 13 points. Yates is going to have to stand in the pocket and make some throws and from we saw in week 12, he is more than capable of finding AJ. I would not expect a big game necessarily from Johnson, but I would not be surprised to see as many as 7-9 targets would come mean a very decent fantasy out-put; especially with this fantasy beast. Start him!


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 21st, 2011 Friday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

Is it Tebow Time in Fantasy?
The consensus in Denver may suggest yes it is Tebow time, but if you are a fantasy owner with options you may want to steer the conservative route for the moment. After watching quarterback Tim Teebow inject some life into the Broncos offense two weeks ago, it’s not a long stretch to think he could have a big impact this week in Florida. There will be a lot of pressure going back to Florida so his passing numbers could suffer a bit, but he’s a gamer and will more than likely make it up with his legs. He’s probably better served on your bench for now, but if you had Kyle Orton and need a spark this week too, maybe it is Tebow time.

Carson Palmer unlikely to Start
After six months with a TV clicker in his hand it would be a stretch to expect quarterback Carson Palmer to walk right on the field and have a huge positive impact. This is likely why the Raiders appear to be pulling back the reigns a bit. The most recent update is suggesting that Palmer is not expected to start against the Chiefs on Sunday. This makes great sense with a week 8 bye coming up, the extra time would allow Palmer to get closer to football shape, learn the system and quickly develop some rapport with his receivers. He could be a good stash, but fantasy owners won’t likely see any return on this investment for several weeks.

Where does Brandon Lloyd rank now?
With Sam Bradford iffy for Sunday, I still wouldn’t worry too much about wide receiver Brandon Lloyd. The former Bronco is familiar with McDaniels system and should be on the field plenty against the Cowboys. The Rams aerial attacking has been lacking all season and Lloyd is definitely a huge upgrade. It’s a lot to ask for a huge game out of the gate, but Lloyd should be good for a decent outing and might even find the end-zone against the Cowboys secondary (especially if Bradford plays).

Is Kyle Boller Fantasy worthy?
There are too many available options ahead of Kyle Boller to consider if you need a quarterback this week in fantasy. With the Carson Palmer ERA on hold for the moment, the Raiders are going to try and not let Boller lose their matchup with Kansasy City this week, so they will likely be featuring a heavy-run game-plan. Running back Darren McFadden (must-start) and Michael Bush (a good flex option) should see plenty of action on Sunday.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY GAMETIME

October 16th, 2011 Sunday

Sunday Morning Gametime

My quick notes:

Who to Watch

The Falcons may get caught up in a shoot-out today, something they have not been proficient at this season, but I am expecting a more explosive team that we have yet to see. With their explosive rookie receiver Julio Jones OUT today, it will be a no-brainer for quarterback Matt Ryan to decide where to go with the ball; expect a big game from wide receiver Roddy White, 10+ targets today will net him some big numbers and lots of fantasy points.

The Cowboys wide receiver Miles Austin makes his return today against the Patriots and you have to love his matchup against the league’s worst secondary. Expect Romo to take a couple of shots deep to Austin and connect; Miles should be big today for fantasy owners.

With the Falcons and Panthers putting up huge numbers today, fantasy owners better keep their eyes on Panthers rookie quarterback Cam Newton and wide receiver Steve Smith. The Falcons have had their issues in the secondary and with pressure on the quarterback. Newton has been a fantasy beast this season and week six will prove to be no different. Smith will of course benefit greatly today from Cam’s success.


Who to Avoid

For most fantasy owners this may go without saying, but after coming off a very poor week five performance and loss the Bills, expect the Eagles defense to take out their frustrations on Redskins quarterback Rex Grossman. They may concede a few yards on the ground to the Redskins running game, but when they have their opportunities they will get to Grossman and force some mistakes.

The Colts backfield is in for a long day against one of the league’s stingiest defenses. The Bengals are ranked 7th against the run allowing just 3.2 yards per carry and today they could improve on both of those numbers; avoid running backs Delone Carter and Donald Brown. They won’t see a lot of opening or yards on the ground today.


My Picks Today

My “Four Horsemen”

I haven’t been having my best season thus far, but I am looking for week six to really get things turned around.

Tony Romo; win or lose today in Foxboro, the Cowboys gunslinger is going to put up some big numbers today against the league’s 32nd ranked pass defense. Romo will see the return of wide receiver Miles Austin and he’ll also have (TE) Jason Witten and (WR) Dez Bryant to throw to today.

Ryan Torain; the Eagles defense struggles with the ground game and could see a lot of Torain early and often. As long as the Redskins take care of the ball and keeps this close, Torain could see a hefty workload and some very good rushing numbers. He should make at least one trip to the house today.

Roddy White; the Falcons could be gearing up for a shoot-out today in the dome, something that will favor White fantasy owners. Roddy is averaging just 11 yards per catch and has just two scores; against the Panthers 14th ranked secondary expect those numbers to improve.

Aaron Hernandez; The Cowboys secondary is very thin and has been quite suspect this season ranked 13th against the pass. With receivers like Welker and Branch to contend with expect Brady to exploit matchups with his tight ends, especially Hernandez. The Patriots often like to split Hernandez wide and in the slot; he could be hugely effective in the red-zone today.

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 16th, 2011 Sunday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

Hightower Expected to Play?
The Redskins may have running back Tim Hightower available today and he could see some work, but the smart money will be on Ryan Torain to see the brunt. Coming off an impressive performance in week 4 by Torain, Hightower may have to take a backseat today. Likely with limited duty today, Hightower will have limited fantasy value in standard league; you may want to avoid.

Cowboys Offense at Full-strength
With their biggest matchup this season to date, the Cowboys will be traveling to Foxboro fully equipped with their best weapons. Both wide receivers Dez Bryant and Miles Austin will join tight end Jason Witten on the field today. This will be the first time the three have been healthy and on the field together since week one. Whether or not that will be enough firepower to match the explosive offense of the Patriots, we’ll have to wait and see, but it certainly upgrades quarterback Tony Romo to a “must-start” fantasy play this week.

Addai OUT, Carter and Brown to handle duties
With running back Joseph Addai sidelined today, back-ups (rookie) Delone Carter and Donald Brown will share the workload in the backfield. This could be a coin-flip for desperate fantasy owners looking for help at the running back position. The Bengals boast one of the league’s toughest run defenses and could make it tough for both backs all day. Only Carter could offer some hope in PPR leagues with his

Starks in line for a Good Day
The Packers will host the Rams today and running back James Starks could be in line for a big day. With the Rams allowing the third most fantasy points to running backs, expect Starks to benefit with a good day on the ground and a trip to paydirt.

A Quiet Harvin Could Make Noise Today
The Vikings playmaking wide receiver Percy Harvin has been relatively quiet this season with just 18 receptions and no touchdowns. With the Bears 27th ranked pass defense on the slate next, this could be Harvin’s coming out party. The Vikings will likely try to get the ball into Harvin’s hands many different ways. With the game plan likely focused around running back Adrian Peterson, expect some deception and play-action use to isolate Harvin into favorable matchups; if you have him, play him.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FRIDAY'S FAST FIVE

October 14th, 2011 Friday

Friday’s Fast Five

My Five Calls for Week 6

1. White’s Week to Wreck Havoc
Fantasy owners have been waiting for Atlanta Falcon’s receiver Roddy White to breakout this season. He has 32 receptions (on 54 targets), but just 352 yards receiving and two scores. These are significantly sub-par numbers for our guy, Roddy. With their rookie stud Julio Jones sidelined this week, Matt Ryan and the Falcons passing offense should turn to old-reliable number 84. The Panthers secondary is ranked 15th this season against the pass and they have already been bit for the long ball (40 yards or more) four times this season. Roddy’s numbers are down and this could be the week he picks them up.

2. It’s Back to Basics for the Eagles
The Eagles offense has been riding the arms and legs of quarterback far too much this season and it has not paid off, 10 turnovers and a 1-4 record. With so many weapons, Jackson, McCoy, Maclin, and Celek, I am expecting Reid to reel in Vick some this week and ask his to share the rock more with some of his other playmakers. The Redskins are playing well defensively this season, so the Eagles will need to attack from all angles. McCoy is averaging almost six yards a tote this season and in two games last season he totaled 268 yards of offense; look for a productive Sunday from the league’s 5th leading rusher.

3. Tony Romo Should Breathe Easy on Sunday
This matchup Sunday has all the ingredients of a big passing day for Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo. The Patriots defense is dead last in the league and has given up a ton of yards in the air this season, but the good news doesn’t stop there. In five games this season the Patriots secondary has been victimized for nine touchdowns and 32 pass plays of 20 yards or more. With his best receiving weapon returning this week and tight end Jason Witten underneath, Romo should be a huge fantasy play on Sunday; even in Foxboro.

4. Life Without Andre Could be Hard
The Texans quarterback Matt Schaub could be someone fantasy owners may want to avoid this week. On Sunday the Texans travel to Baltimore to meet Mr. Ray Lewis and the Ravens 8th ranked pass defense. Schaub will take the field without his best weapon and favorite target; expect the Ravens to crowd the line, stuff the run, and turn the Texans into a one dimension offense. Once that happens the dawgs will be turned loose and Schaub could be looking at a long afternoon.

5. Newton Rolling and Could Pick up Speed
The Panthers dynamic and electrifying rookie quarterback Cam Newton has been taking the league by storm and turning his team into a tough matchup week in and week out. Week six should be no different and if you are the Falcons you should be worried. The Falcons 29th ranked pass defense is coming off a beating from week 5 surrendering 396 yards and two touchdowns to Aaron Rodgers and Packers. Now Newton is no Rodgers, and he doesn’t have quite the same compliment of skill players, but he does have plenty of help and enough weapons to do a lot of damage. This matchup could easily turn into a shoot out with Newton providing plenty of fireworks of his own.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 14th, 2011 Friday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

No Jones Means More White
The Falcons offense has looked sporadic and inconsistent at times this season, even the Matt-Ryan to Roddy White connection that has been so effective the past several seasons has yet to really click. Through the first five weeks of this season White has been targeted 54 times (second most), but he has just two touchdowns, only one 100-yard receiving game, and only 352 yards receiving this season. With Julio Jones OUT this week, expect White to step up his game and really become the focal point of the Falcons passing attack against the league’s 15th ranked pass defense (Panthers).

Austin Says he’s ready for Sunday
The Cowboys explosive receiver turned in a couple of full practices this week, including Friday and looks ready to return to action this Sunday against the Patriots. With the Patriots defense giving up huge chunks of yardage each week to the passing game, expect Romo to target Austin early and often. For those fantasy owners that suffered through the absence of Austin expected to be rewarded on Sunday; he’s a must-start.

Graham Vaults to Starting Role
With starter LeGarette Blount (MCL strain) sidelined this week, enter Mr. Graham. The Buccaneers will roll with running back Earnest Graham on Sunday when they take the field and while yards could be tough to come by on the ground , with 23 receptions already this season Graham could still see a lot of production. Even as the starter Graham will not be a favorite in standard leagues, but will offer much more value in PPR.

Jones Could Be a Packer on the Rise
The Packers speedy receiver James Jones is starting to find his stride this season after a quiet start. In his last two games Jones has seen more action (50 snaps) than the previous three games (38 snaps) and his productive has been evident. Jones has a total of 11 targets in his last two games, catching eight balls for 188 yards and scoring twice. This Sunday against the Rams at home could be a jail break for the Packers passing game. With the defense preoccupied with trying to slow (Greg) Jennings and (Jermichael) Finley, Jones could emerge as a huge benefactor; this is not a popular pick, but I like Jones as a flex or possible start in deep leagues, especially if you are thin at WR.

Could this be Torain’s Week?
Despite head coach Mike Shanahan’s point blank declaration of who will be the man on Sunday in the Redskin’s backfield, the smart money is on running back Ryan Torain. Shanahan has already expressed his pleasure with the return of Torain last week and after his (Torain) play (135 yards rushing, one touchdown) last weekend the Redskin’s head coach was not disappointed either. Remember Shanahan actually drafted Torain when both were in Denver; Torain is his pick and regardless if he starts should see plenty of work. Going against the Eagles 28th ranked defense, Torain is worthy of a start in most deep leagues and could be a nice flex in shallow formats.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FOOTBALL NOTES

October 9th, 2011, Sunday

Fantasy Football

Player Watch

Armed with Arms

With the Pittsburgh Steelers set to host the Tennessee Titans today, I am looking for wide receiver Antonio Brown to finally breakout. Through the first four weeks Brown has gradually seen his role in the passing game increase. With 15 receptions and 223 receiving yards, Brown is quickly becoming a real threat. Brown leads the team in targets this season, has very good speed, and with the defense preoccupied with slowing down Mike Wallace, he could have some favorable matchups today. I am expecting Brown to post some solid numbers today and reach the end-zone once.

The Colts have had little to get excited about thus far this season, but on Monday night they gave the Buccaneers a real scare. With quarterback Curtis Painter breathing some life into the pass game, wide receiver Pierre Garcon has become a bigger part of the offense. Garcon has seen 16 targets the past two weeks, caught eight passes, and scored twice. Garcon should continue to see steady work today against the Chiefs and is a good candidate to find paydirt.

Monday night figures to be a big night in Detroit for Lions fans, but it could also be a big night for rookie wide receiver Titus Young. After their dramatic comeback against the Cowboys, there’s no doubt the Bears (their next opponent) will be game-planning to slow down Megatron. Young has yet to breakout this season, but he has been steady; 12 receptions this season. Against the league’s 26 ranked pass defense, Young could get some extra looks and they could payout big. I look for Young to post season highs in targets, catches, yards, and finally reach the end-zone for the first time this season.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 7th, 2011 Friday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

Ryan Grant Cleared to Play
The James Starks (210 yards rushing) ERA could be put on hold for a bit with running back Ryan Grant cleared to play Sunday against the Falcons. For the better part of this young season Starks has looked like the dominant runner, until the old Grant showed up in week 3 (92 yards on 17 carries). Last week Grant was held out of action with a bruised kidney injury, but this Sunday he makes his return. His return and presence will affect Starks playing time, so fantasy owners should be advised if rolling with Starks.

Hernandez on track to Play Sunday
The Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez has been practicing and appears to be ready to return to action this week; it was noted that Hernandez has been moving around the team facility without a limp. With the Patriots offense ranked number one in passing if Hernandez (14 receptions, 2 touchdowns) is active on Sunday, he is a must play against the Jets.

Manning’s Fire Keeps Growing
While big brother is sidelined this season with injury, the Giants quarterback Eli Manning is doing his best to carry the family name. In the past three weeks Manning has thrown eight touchdowns with just one pick. With the league’s 14th ranked pass defense (Cardinals) coming to town, Manning is looking to keep his fire burning.

Bradshaw Could see a big load on Sunday
The Giants are likely to be without running back Brandon Jacobs on Sunday when they face the Cardinals, with Jacobs out Ahmad Bradshaw is expected to see a larger work-load. Bradshaw is averaging better than five yards per carry, but has not carried the ball more than 15 times in any game this season; this Sunday that could change.

Daniels Figures to see More Action
With the Texans missing Andre Johnson this week against the Raiders, someone will have to step up in the passing game; tight end Owen Daniels. Daniels has been relatively quiet this season, although he does have 10 receptions over the past two weeks and has scored three times this season. On Sunday Daniels will face the Raiders 22nd ranked pass defense.

Garcon Could Be a Nice Play in Week 5
The Colts offense is beginning to show some signs of life and one of its most lively components is wide receiver Pierre Garcon. In the past two weeks Garcon has seen a total of 18 targets and has benefitted greatly; 218 yards receiving with two touchdowns. This week the Colts will face the Chiefs 15th ranked pass defense and Garcon figures to see plenty of chances in the pass game; he could be a nice flex in week 5.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY GAMETIME

October 2nd, 2011 Sunday

Sunday Morning Gametime

In a very short period 2011 has become not just the year of the quarterback, but the year of fantasy football. With scoring up all over the league, that can only mean one thing; more fantasy points all around. With the numbers up does it become more confusing than ever to know who to play or who to sit, perhaps, but you have to love it!

Watch-list

The Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has been off to a sizzling start this season and he will take his act on the road to Cincinnati today; even though he is facing the Bengals 5th ranked pass defense don’t expect him to cool down. The Saints running back Darren Sproles has been electric thus far this season, he should keep the sparks flying today against the Jaguars. The Packers may get their fourth win of the season today, but it could be a tough day on the ground for running back James Starks.

Today’s quick notes:

Saints wide receiver Marques Colston is expected to be on the field today returning from his collarbone injury; if he’s on the field he will be good to go and will likely figure in the plan. He’s not in line for a monster game, but could still fill in as a nice flex for fantasy owners.

Tom Brady and the Patriots are on the road today to face the Oakland Raiders, don’t expect this one to be low-scoring. The Patriots will be in for a slugfest with the last man standing the winner. In week one Brady tossed up a big five bills in the air, we could see that again today facing the Raiders 28th ranked pass defense. Fantasy owners should play all of the Patriots receivers and keep your eye on Ochocinco; this could be his breakout game.

The Eagles wide receiver Jeremy Maclin (hamstring) is expected to start today and could be in line for a rebound game. After his breakout week 2 performance, Maclin hit the snooze button last week against the Giants. The Niners are ranked a decent 16th against the pass, but Jackson on the other side, they don’t have the secondary to match up. As long as Vick stays upright, Maclin could get loose today.

The Texans defense has only recorded seven sacks through the team’s first three games. Houston’s secondary is going to have to worry about wide receiver Mike Wallaces’ speed, if Big Ben is give time, he could pick apart the secondary for big numbers. Wallace is sure to draw a lot of double teams downfield opening the middle for 2nd year receiver Antonio Brown, who has seen a steady share of targets through the first three weeks; he’s a safe WR3 or flex play today.


My Picks Today

My “Four Horsemen”

Last week was brutal with Philip Rivers, Michael Turner and DeSean Jackson all pulling the disappearing act. This week will be my turnaround.

Tom Brady; It’s tough to pick against the Patriots when coming off a loss, so I won’t. Brady could be in for a huge day today against the Raiders 28th ranked defense. Black Hole or not, I am looking for Tom to put the ball in the air often.

Adrian Peterson; The Vikings need to get in the win column and they won’t mess around trying to do anything but what they do best; give the rock to “All-Day.” Peterson should see plenty of work and should find the end-zone a couple of times.

Steve Johnson; The Bills offense has been high octane through the first three weeks and today against the Bengals I wouldn’t expect it to come down. Johnson has emerged as one of the leagues best receivers (Top 15) and today he will continue to showcase why.

Jimmy Graham; Brees loves his tightend and why not; Graham has been solid this season 14 receptions, including two scores. Last week the Jaguars allowed 10 receptions and nearly 100 yards receiving to the Panthers tight end; today could be a big day for Graham.

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 1st, 2011 Saturday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

Austin close, but will miss Sunday
We already knew that Austin would be sitting this Sunday against the Lions, but its good news for fantasy owners to hear that he is getting close. Austin said he could play in week 5, if the Cowboys had a game. The bad news with him sitting, the boys will be short-handed again and could see a lot of the same (as we saw on Monday night) from their make-shift receiving corp; not good for quarterback Tony Romo fantasy owners.

Vick expecting to Play on Sunday
The Eagles dynamic quarterback announced earlier this week he will be on the playing field this Sunday despite all of his recent injuries; should fantasy owners be worried? The Niners are stingy against the run this season, so the Eagles will have to throw, but fortunately for Vick fantasy owners they do not do a great job at getting after the quarterback (they are OK). Also, an anemic 49er offense will allow the Vick and the Eagles to be patient with the run and pass.

Newton coming down to Earth?
It’s funny, after his astronomical start this season, the prospects of Cam Newton continuing his electrifying play look more and more difficult with each week. After his struggles last week (even though the Panthers won) against the Jaguars last Sunday, he will be facing a tough Bears defense (8 sacks this season) that could present a lot of problems for him in the pocket. With players like Urlacher and Briggs bringing the heat, Newton could be looking at a long day; owners may want to reconsider their options.

McNabb looking to get out of the Gate
The Vikings are 0-3 and quarterback Donovan McNabb has only thrown two touchdown passes in his three starts. If things don’t turn around soon for McNabb, he will soon find himself holding a clip-board on the sideline. Fortunately for McNabb and the Vikings they will get the Chiefs (ranked 30th against the pass) defense on Sunday, that have allowed 13 pass plays of 20 yards or more. This won’t guarantee a huge fantasy day for McNabb (look for other options), but success in the air could compliment a big day from the Vikings ground game.

Starks gearing up to start against the Broncos.
The Packers will be without running back Ryan Grant on Sunday when they host Denver, but they will have James Starks who will likely be the featured back in their ground game. Before fantasy owners jump on board the Starks bandwagon, they had better take a look at last Sunday’s matchup between the Broncos and Titans; CJ2K was limited to only 21 yards on 13 carries. Johnson may be feeling the hangover from his hold-out, but then Starks is no CJ2K. Starks should still produce decent numbers (65-75 yards on the ground), but if you are looking for a big game, you might want to look elsewhere.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: TARGET PRACTICE

September 28th, 2011, Wednesday

Fantasy Football

Target Practice

In These Hands We Trust

In week 3 there were no hands better than the pair that comes with Patriots wide receiver Wes Welker. Against the Bills, Welker was targeted a league high 20 times in week 3 finishing the game with 16 catches and over 200 yards receiving. While Welker was raking in passes like crazy, Roddy White (Falcons) and Anquan Boldin (Ravens) were seeing many chances as well, but with a lot less success.

White only corralled 9 balls on 17 tries against the Buccaneers, while Boldin was less successful snagging only 7 of 14. The good news for owners, these two look like they have the confidence of their quarterbacks and should be strong candidates to rebound in week 4 with plenty more chances.

A couple of other receivers that have the confidence of their quarterbacks and could quickly become fantasy football household names include wide receiver Nate Washington (Titans), David Nelson (Bills), and Brandon Pettigrew (Lions).

Through the first three weeks of the season Washington (27 targets) and Nelson (27 targets) both rank in the Top 20. Pettigrew is not far off ranking fourth among tight ends with 22 targets. After last weeks’ breakout game against the Vikings with 11 receptions and 112 yards receiving, Pettigrew is quickly becoming a favorite of (Matthew) Stafford.

Top 10 in week 3

1. Wes Welker, Patriots (20 targets)
2. Roddy White, Falcons (17 targets)
3. Anquan Boldin, Ravens (14 targets)
4. Reggie Wayne, Colts (13 targets)
5. Andre Caldwell, Bengals (12 targets)
6. Eric Decker, Broncos (12 targets)
7. Andre Johnson, Texans (12 targets)
8. Michael Jenkins, Vikings (11 targets)
9. Calvin Johnson, Lions (11 targets)
10. 6 players tied at 10 targets

Radar Watch

If the Broncos can quarterback Kyle Orton to look downfield more, wide receiver Eric Decker could suddenly become a fantasy favorite. Decker was among the leaders in week 3 with 12 targets, but the results were only 7 catches for 48 yards. Like Decker, wide receiver Pierre Garcon is going to need more help from the quarterback position if he is going to improve on his 10 targets from week 3. Both look like diamonds in the rough just waiting to shine.

Tight end Todd Heap is healthy this season and was finally utilized a little more extensively in week 3 seeing 10 balls (targets) in his direction. Heap has shown lots of ability in the past, if quarterback Kevin Kolb can make more of an effort to get his tight end involved, Heap has the potential of being a fantasy gem going forward.

One of my waiver wire mentions this week is wide receiver Michael Jenkins (Vikings). He’s not going to suddenly break out of the gate in week 4, but his 17 targets are good indicator he’s one of McNabb’s favorite and will see a steady stream of passes in his direction every week.

My last mention here is Lions rookie wide receiver Titus Young. Last week he broke out with a nice 5 catch, 89-yard performance on seven targets. This week his 4 catches and 51 yards receiving might suggest a slight regression, but to the contrary Young was targeted eight times. As long as Young continues to see his share of throws, he’s going to get better; much better.

Top 10 through week 3 (unofficial)

1. Wes Welker, Patriots (43 targets)
2. Roddy White, Falcons (34 targets)
3. Andre Johnson, Texans (32 targets)
4. Reggie Wayne, Colts (32 targets)
5. Jason Witten, Cowboys (32 targets)
6. Brandon Marshall, Dolphins (31 targets)
7. Steve Smith, Panthers (31 targets)
8. Steve Johnson, Bills (30 targets)
9. Mike Thomas, Jaguars (30 targets)
10. Anquan Boldin, Ravens (28 targets)
11. Calvin Johnson, Lions (28 targets)
12. Darren Sproles, Saints (28 targets)