FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Edition

September 14th, 2013 

 

David’s Daily Digest

 

My “Big Board” for Week 2

(Week 2 Rankings)

My Rankings do not include Thursday’s matchups

Quarterbacks

1. Peyton Manning (Broncos)

2. Aaron Rodgers (Packers)

3. Michael Vick (Eagles)

4. Matthew Stafford (Lions)

5. Collin Kaepernick (49ers)

6. Drew Brees (Saints)

7. Matt Ryan (Falcons)

8. Tony Romo (Cowboys)

9. Andrew Luck (Colts)

10. Eli Manning (Giants)

Quick Notes:

I like Matthew Stafford’s patience in week one dumping down to the backs (14 times). The defense now has to account for Bush and Bell, so this week Megatron blows up. The Cardinals are going to get caught up in an old fashion shoot out and Carson Palmer has plenty of ammo to shoot with, Fitz, Roberts, and Floyd.

Running Backs

1. Adrian Peterson (Vikings)

2. LeSean McCoy (Eagles)

3. Jamaal Charles (Chiefs)

4. Doug Martin (Buccaneers)

5. Ray Rice (Ravens)

6. Arian Foster (Texans)

7. Reggie Bush (Lions)

8. Matt Forte (Bears)

9. C.J. Spiller (Bills)

10. Trent Richardson (Browns)

11. Steven Jackson (Falcons)

12. Maurice Jones-Drew (Jaguars)

13. Marshawn Lynch (Seahawks)

14. Chris Johnson (Titans)

15. DeMarco Murray (Cowboys)

16. DeAngelo Williams (Panthers)

17. Frank Gore (49ers)

18. Daryl Richardson (Rams)

19. Darren Sproles (Saints)

20. Ahmad Bradshaw (Colts)

Quick Notes:

I am a little (or a lot) high on Reggie Bush. I think he’s going to follow up his strong week 1 performance with another solid performance this Sunday, because the Lions will keep him very active in the pass game. Just like Bush, I believe Matt Forte (6 targets in week 1) is going to have a strong outing this week playing a big part in the passing game out of the backfield.

Wide Receivers

1. Calvin Johnson (Lions)

2. Brandon Marshall (Bears)

3. Demaryrius Thomas (Broncos)

4. AJ Green (Bengals)

5. Dez Bryant (Cowboys)

6. Jordy Nelson (Packers)

7. Andre Johnson (Texans)

8. Victor Cruz (Giants)

9. Reggie Wayne (Colts)

10. Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals) *if he plays

11. Vincent Jackson (Buccaneers)

12. Julio Jones (Falcons) *if he plays

13. Pierre Garcon (Redskins)

14. DeSean Jackson (Eagles)

15. Anquan Boldin (49ers)

16. Randall Cobb (Packers)

17. Hakeem Nicks (Giants)

18. Wes Welker (Broncos)

19. Doug Baldwin (Seahawks)

20. Brian Hartline (Dolphins)

Quick Notes:

I thought in week one against the Niners, wide receiver Jordy Nelson looked great. Ran solid routes and has hands of gold. He’s going to be busy in week 2 against the Redskins. The Bears wideout Brandon Marshall dominated the Vikes last year catching 22 balls in two games; he’s going to have big day on Sunday.

Tight Ends

1. Jimmy Graham (Saints)

2. Jared Cook (Rams)

3. Brent Celek (Eagles)

4. Jason Witten (Cowboys)

5. Owen Daniels (Texans)

6. Tony Gonzales (Falcons)

7. Jordan Cameron (Browns)

8. Antonio Gates (Chargers)

9. Julius Thomas (Broncos)

10. Jermichael Finley (Packers) *if he plays

Quick Notes:

The old man (Antonio Gates) in San Diego has still some fuel left in the tank. Gates has just four targets last Monday night. With Rivers and the offense stalling as they did in the second half, I think the Chargers rediscover the value left in Gates. In the same matchup (Chargers-Eagles), Chip Kelly’s high octance offense will have a few more plays scripted this week for tight end Brent Celek (just 3 targets in week one).

All of the * players are listed as questionable, although I have been reading and hearing all are likely to play. Based on that assumption they play, I am taking into account for my rankings some limited ability for each of these players. They are a medium-risk and medium-reward play this week. In my opinion.

That’s my take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Edition

September 13th, 2013 

 

David’s Daily Digest

My Week Two “Starts”

With every bad turn and dark cloud, you can always find a silver lining; I think I read that somewhere or just made up that crap. Either way it seems another’s misfortune often becomes someone else’s good luck. In fantasy just as in life this is very true.

Just today when word came out that Vick Ballard was done for the season (great misfortune for Ballard and we all hope for a speedy recovery) the opportunity presented was great news for Ahmad Bradshaw owners. Bradshaw is now ushered into the starting role and figures to play a much bigger role in the Colts running game plan.

This week will present a tough matchup for Bradshaw and the Colts facing the Dolphins stout run defense (just 47 yards allowed last week), but I still like him in PPR leagues this Sunday. With yards on the ground being scarce, Bradshaw is still an effective pass catcher out of the backfield and figures to be the prominent back in Week 2. He’s a start for me this week.

Another week 2 option I am in favor of this Sunday comes from the same Dolphins-Colts matchup. Wide receiver Brian Hartline (17 fantasy points in week 1) was a heavily targeted option last week. Hartline saw 15 targets, which should not be all that surprising; he was targeted 131 times last season (by quarterback Ryan Tannehill). While his opportunities may diminish some this week, fantasy owners should expect to see him get plenty of looks once again.

There’s no question everyone is talking about the Eagles and Head Coach Chip Kelly’s frantic play calling pace. On Monday night against the Redskins the Eagles ran 53 plays in the first half. I am expecting a lot of the same if not more production from the offense this week and leading the way will be Quarterback Michael Vick.

The Eagles are home and the west coast Chargers will be coming to town off a short week. I don’t think they will be reading for what hits them, especially coming off a demoralizing Monday night loss. I think Vick looks comfortable, but with the slight limp we saw on Monday, I think he will be throwing a little more. He’s a strong start for me this week.

These are just a couple of other players I would have in your line-ups this Sunday if it makes sense; running back Daryl Richardson (Rams), wide receiver Andre Roberts (Cardinals), wide receiver Doug Baldwin (Seahawks),and tight end Brent Celek (Eagles).

That’s my take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Thursday Edition

September 12th, 2013 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Thursday Night Notes

With gametime just 30 minutes away, I am not going to go out on a limb and make several bold predictions for tonight’s game. The Jets are in bad shape, but coming off a miraculous last second wind and the Patriots are searching for healthy bodies to play tonight. With Danny Amendola, Zack Sudfeld, and Shane Vereen OUT for the Pats, quarterback Tom Brady is looking more like Old Mother Hubbard with his cupboard bare. Fortunately for Tom Terrifc he’s still got a few bones left.

Last week Brady looked for wide receiver Kenbrell Thompkins early and often and with limited options, the rookie could pay huge dividends for fantasy owners. He may face the Jets corner Antonio Cromartie from time to time, but Brady and Thompkins should get plenty of chances to hook up.

Another favorable option for Brady will be the smallest of targets, wide receiver Julian Edelman. The Patriots mini-Welker version turned in a nice week one performance and could follow up with a nice week two encore. The Jets will have their hands full trying to jump from Edelman to Thompkins.

Despite his early game fumble last week, expect to see Ridley play a role in tonight’s game, maybe even in the passing game. It’s hard to measure what his impact might be, but as one of the higher drafted running backs in fantasy (RB2-RB3), he should probably be in your lineup tonight.

One last mention for the Patriots tonight is running back LeGarette Blount. He ran well at times in the preseason and could benefit from his inside bruising style running. He’s a big back and could get a few calls in goal line situation.

The Jets offense is a mystery until pieces start to fall into place. Rookie quarterback Geno Smith could be a diamond in the rough, but does he break out tonight? The offense lacks consistency at the receiver position and Kellen Winslow Jr is going to be hard-pressed to put up strong fantasy numbers week in and week out. Having said that, he may fair well against the Pats but there are plenty of better options to play.

There are too many questions around the Jets offense for me to trust anyone. I will pass.

I like the Patriots offense tonight (led by Brady). I will also take New England over the Jets (but in a close one).

That’s my take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Wednesday Edition

September 11th, 2013 

 

David’s Daily Digest

The Weekly Wire

The weekly waiver wire, a place to find those hidden gems and temporary fixes every fantasy owner needs. My first week out of the gate was without plenty of success, so I too have been busy on the wire looking for help.

If you are like me and play in deep leagues, sometimes the pickings can be thin, but you can always find a bargain free off the wire. Following several sites, hearing plenty of conversations and yes, watching a lot of football on Sunday, I did find a couple of gems I would recommend grabbing this week.

WR Leonard Hankerson had a nice Monday night showing grabbing five balls on seven targets. His line for the evening was 5 receptions, 80 yards receiving, and two touchdowns. He’s probably not going to make multiple trips to the end zone in the same game, but his seven targets are an indication of trust from his quarterback. It’s a little too early to buy high on this guy, but he’s got the looks of a solid flex for now.

Another receiver with flex charm sprinkled with some upside, Arizona Cardinal wideout Andre Roberts. The fourth year receiver led the team with 97 yards receiving, adding 8 catches on 9 targets. Only Larry Fitzgerald had more targets with 14. As long as quarterback Carson Palmer has Fitz to target in the red-zone, Roberts scoring chances will be limited, but I like his numbers (especially targets) and believe he can be a consistent WR3/flex option each week.

The rush for the front of the line this week had to be for tight end Julius Thomas, a Broncos sleeper that has finally awoken from his two year slumber. Thomas is a third year gem that has plenty of shine ready to be polished this season, his only caveat is he is playing in a full house. Although I love this kid and believe he should be owned, the Broncos have plenty of other weapons that could limit some of his value. If you do pick him up, you may want to hang on to that tight end you drafted, at least until you see what you really have.

I won’t drag this out with too many players, so just a couple of more wire pick-ups for week one that I like. In one league I play in I see that both wide receivers Brian Hartline (Dolphins) and Doug Baldwin (Seahawks) are available (would pick up either if I needed more depth at WR). I am buying into the Hartline beat; 15 targets is no fluke and remember he had 131 last season with the same QB. He may not see as many targets in any of the remaining weeks, but he’s a favorite in the Dolphins passing game and will hold value as a mid-low WR3/flex.

Baldwin is a similar leading the team on Sunday with 8 targets and finishing the game with 7 receptions for 9a yards. Baldwin is not going to have too many flashy games, but I think he’s got plenty of flex appeal and worth the pickup this week.

These are wire gems and my takes for week one.

Before I go, I got to this post a little late, but just wanted to pay my respects to the many lives lost on 9/11 and salute the NYPD, NYFD, the service men and women of our great country, and the all the great Americans that were there that day and did what they did and all they could to help. 

We will never forget….

  

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Tuesday Edition

September 10th, 2013 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Week One “Damage Control”

I think it’s important for all of us who play fantasy football to remember, this was just week one and a great opportunity to view the real sample size and get a good measure on what we can expect to see going forward. And while some of our heavy hitters may have whiffed this past week, there’s no need to panic.

Let’s start with the Dez Bryants (8 targets), Calvin Johnsons (9 targets), and CJ Spillers (22 touches) of the world. As you can see these studs saw plenty of chances in week one and they will see plenty more going forward. And believe you me, as long as these dudes keep seeing this many chances or more, they will be fine. As will your other fantasy studs or targeted players that may not have quite posted the favorable numbers you desired. This would include; Pierre Garcon (11 targets), Torrey Smith (8 targets), Eric Decker (7 targets), Doug Martin (26 touches), Marshawn Lynch (19 touches), and Frank Gore (23 touches).

Fantasy football is not a sprint or a race, it’s a marathon and for most standard and custom scoring leagues the regular season is 13-14 weeks long. With only one game in the books, there is time to learn, improve, and advance. And we must not forget “On Any Given Sunday” even some of our fantasy studs will miss, but as long as they keep getting their chances more times than not they will deliver the big knock.

Swing and a Miss

There were a couple of names last week that I mentioned that were bad plays; Roddy White and Jacquizz Rodgers. It seems as I am listening to a lot of radio chatter and reading some sites on the web, the Falcons may have pulled a fast one. White was always expected to play as he did, but leading up the game all last week his injury was not viewed as serious. Apparently it was serious enough to limit White to just two catches on two targets. I guess he was just a decoy; didn’t see that coming.

I also did not expect to see the Falcons play catch up most of the game on Sunday, limiting their run game to just 14 rushing attempts. As a result Rodgers saw very few opportunities, only three touches (one catch, two carries); not exactly what you are looking for from your flex. Jackson seems to be the man, all others a distant second. As long as SJax can hold up, I believe Rodgers value will stay irrelevant at this point. He may get some garbage time mop up duty, but I would count on those opportunities to win your weekly matchups.

Just my take and with that note, I will just say good night to all.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Edition

September 8th, 2013 

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Starts/Sits

It’s week one of the Fantasy Football season, so there shouldn’t be a whole lot of debate when it comes to your starting lineup. As a whole the NFL is generally healthy without any real big name scratches (that are not already on IR) for this first weekend of action.

In case you missed the bulletin, Falcons wide receiver Roddy White is playing (like there was ever any doubt). And in the Falcons-Saints matchups, you should be playing as many players as there are available. If the waterboy is available, start him. Okay, kidding about that last one, but there should be plenty of fireworks and lots of fantasy points in this matchup today.

Starts

Looking over the slate of games for today, where you might be on the fence is your flex spot or if your second WR opr RB is not particularly strong. Some players that should be in your lineup today would include; running back Shane Vereen. If you are in a deep (PPR) league Vereen could provide plenty of punch as a flex option this week facing the Bills run defense (2^nd most fantasy points allowed last season).

The Chiefs defense struggled with the run last season (ranked 27^th) and gave up the 8^th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. If you had any concerns about running back Maurice Jones-Drew coming off injury, put your fears to rest and start him today. He should get plenty healthy against the Chiefs today.

While running back Steven Jackson is grabbing most of the attention in Atlanta, don’t expect back up Jacquizz Rodgers to sit quietly in the shadows today. Rodgers will be facing the Saints 32^nd ranked run defense (last season) that also allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Rodgers could offer plenty of flex option appeal today.

Sits

The Seahawks stout secondary is going to provide plenty of fits for Cam Newton and company today. The Seahawks defense was ranked 6^th against the pass last season and allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers. If you  can avoid it, I would pass on the Panthers receivers. Smith may be the only one worthy of playing today (and I am only playing him if I have to), but I am definitely sitting Brandon Lafell (this could be a long day).

I’ve been reading and hearing a lot of chatter about the Marc Trestman Era, but I not buying what anyone is selling about the Bears offense and Jay Cutler. I am taking a wait and see approach. I would like to see some results before I jump on that bandwagon. The Bears have some playmakers and nice skill position compliments for the passing game, but it’s too early to go All-In. With the Bengals defense in town today (5^th fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks), I am sitting Cutler.

These are a few of my takes on some of today’s matchups.

~David Ortega