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Saturday Evening Edition

November 1st, 2014 

David’s Daily Digest

Week 9 Starts

My Favorites for Sunday

It’s more of the same this week, but with six teams on bye it could be slim pickings for some fantasy owners unless you have managed the waiver wire well and paid close attention to the injury reports. I can’t say I drafted too well this season, but fortunately this late heavy bye week has not impacted my teams too greatly.

With that said, if you are not so lucky and looking for some help this Sunday these are the plays I like;

QB-Colin Kaepernick

The Niners quarterback has a nice matchup at home against the Rams (4^th most fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks) this week. Kaepernick faced this same defense back in week 6 recording his only 300-yard passing game of the season and his best fantasy performance of the season. He’s a very good week 9 bye-week fill.

QB-Russell Wilson

With a home game on the slate this week, quarterback Russell Wilson will square up against a Raiders secondary that has allowed better than a 70% completion percentage this season. Wilson has typically been solid at home this season, averaging more than 20 fantasy points per game in his last two starts. He should be another solid week 9 bye-week fill.

RB-Bobby Rainey

The Buccaneers are on the road this week, visiting Cleveland. With starter Doug Martin doubtful for Sunday, it’s an opportunity for running back Bobby Rainey to take the reins in the backfield. Rainey should see the bulk of the workload and has proven to be an effective pass-receiving back out of the backfield; it also helps that the Browns defense has allowed the 8^th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. He has potential for a bigger game, but I consider him a low-end RB2 or flex this week.

RB-Jeremy Hill

Like the Bucs, the Bengals are dealing with injuries in their backfield. With running back Giovanni Bernard likely shelved for Sunday, rookie Jeremy Hill will get the chance to carry the load. Hill will lead the ground attack against the Jaguars rush defense that allows the 12^th most fantasy points to opposing running backs and nearly 4-yards a carry. He should see plenty of work on Sunday to be a solid RB2.

WR-Anquan Boldin

With quarterback Colin Kaepernick facing a favorable matchup on Sunday, wide receiver Anquan Boldin is in line for a productive day. Boldin has been the favorite in the pass game averaging nearly eight targets per start this season. In his last two starts he has a total of 19 targets and with them 14 receptions, 144 yards receiving, and a score. He’s a low-end WR2 or strong flex this week.

WR-Dwayne Bowe

The Chiefs top receiver has been quiet most of the season, but over his past two games Bowe has been targeted 13 times catching 11 balls for 148 yards. On Sunday he will face the Jets secondary that has allowed the 6^th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. He’s a safe WR3 or flex play this week.

Week 9 Sleepers

TE-Jace Amaro

The Jets offense has been woeful this season, but there may be a few bright spots worth noting and one is tight end Jace Amaro. He’s not exactly a fantasy superstar, but this could be a week where we see more of what he’s capable of doing. In his last three starts Amaro has become more involved in the pass game with 23 targets (and 18 receptions). Last week with the change at quarterback Amaro caught five balls on five targets from Michael Vick (who will start on Sunday). With a favorable matchup against a Chiefs defense that allows the 10^th most fantasy points, including 7 touchdowns to opposing tight ends, Amaro could see a few more balls in his direction with Vick under center. He’s a risky play at best, but in a desperate situation he has promise.

That’s my take for week 9.

~David Ortega

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Saturday Evening Edition

October 25th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Week 8 Starts-Sits

My Favorites for Sunday

So as Sunday draws near, it’s another slate of games and another list of some of my fantasy favorites for week 8. I have several lineups going in season long leagues as well as many in the weekly plays; these are several of the names that dominate both.

RB-Jerick McKinnon

The Vikings rookie runner turned in a nice performance a week ago rushing for more than 100 yards against a good Bills defense. This could be an even better and bigger week for McKinnon facing the Buccaneers 25^th ranked rushing defense that is allowing 128.3 yards per game. The Bucs defense also allows the 7^th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including 8 total touchdowns. This could be a good week for McKinnon to find the end-zone; start him.

RB-Tre Mason

The Rams rookie running back is finally getting his chance and coming off an impressive 18-carry, 85 yards rushing with a touchdown performance a week ago would suggest he’ll be the hot hand to start this Sunday against the Chiefs. The Chiefs defense has not surrendered a lot of yards on the ground this season, but their 18^th ranked rush defense is allowing 4.7 yards per carry. This is one that might be a little off the radar, but I like Mason here; he looked very good last week, quick, elusive, and explosive. He should get first shot out of the gate and I would expect another solid performance. If you are weak at the RB spot, he could be a good start this week.

WR-Sammy Watkins

His 2014 season has not been a breakout thus far, but the kid has shown some flashes of great. Bills Quarterback Kyle Orton gives the position some stability and Watkins has benefitted with double digit targets in two of his last three games. The Jets defense is ranked 18^th versus the pass and it allows the 12^th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, including the 10^th most receptions and 8 touchdowns. Watkins is too great a talent for the Jets secondary; he’ll see plenty of opportunities and is a good bet to reach the end-zone. Start him this week.

WR-Mohamed Sanu

The Ravens may be on a roll coming off an impressive win over a stumbling Falcons team, but their secondary continues to get shreaded and surrender lots of yards (1,415 yards to WR-most allowed) and catches (112 receptions to WR-most allowed). With no AJ Green on Sunday, wide receiver Mohamed Sanu figures to see plenty of opportunities and could be in line for a big game. Since becoming the number one, Sanu is averaging 10 targets and nearly 6 receptions per game; he’s a must play.

TE-Zach Ertz

The Eagles tight end has yet to make much noise this season, but Sunday could be a big day for the Eagles pass catcher. Ertz faces a Cardinals defense this Sunday that allows the 7^th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, including 11.8 yards per reception. Ertz is greatly under-utilized, but if the Eagles can get him heavily involved on Sunday he could be hugely productive. I like his chances and would play him ahead of players like Jason Witten, Travis Kelce, Jared Cook, and Heath Miller

TE-Dwayne Allen

With the news of wide receiver Reggie Wayne OUT for Sunday, that just means more balls to go around for the healthy receivers, including tight end Dwayne Allen. The Colts tight end has been consistent this season and ranks in the top ten for fantasy. His matchup this week against a Steelers defense that allows the 9^th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends would suggest a nice day. Allen has scored in 5 of his teams’ 7 games and with the Steelers having allowed 4 touchdowns to tight ends so far this season, number 6 could be this week. Allen is a strong favorite this week, play him.

Week 8 Sleepers

WR-Davante Adams

The Packers offense has a good matchup this week in a game that figures to feature a lot of offense. The last couple of weeks Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has not needed to throw the ball a great deal to do significant damage. This Sunday could be different against a Saints team that is certainly capable of matching the Pack points for points. I am expecting Rodgers to put the ball in the air enough for Adams to see a nice share of targets; Adams is definitely a flex favorite this Sunday.

WR-Percy Harvin

Although there’s no real data to suggest Harvin could have a big Sunday, this is more gut feeling and trying to read between the lines. Harvin is an explosive talent, something the Jets offense has been in desperate need of; don’t expect Marty Mornhinweg to waste any time getting Harvin involved. He could be a nice sneaky flex play this week.

That’s my take for week 8.

~David Ortega

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Saturday Evening Edition

October 18th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest 

Week 7 Starts/Sleepers

My Favorites for Sunday

The past several weeks I’ve been devoting a lot of my time focusing more on the one week fantasy leagues and taking a closer look at the weekly matchups. Heading into Sunday’s games, there a handful of matchups and plays I am favoring a great deal.

RB-Ben Tate

The Browns are coming off a big win over the Steelers last week, led by their ground game (158 yards rushing, 3 touchdowns) and running back Ben Tate. The Browns ball carrier has been rolling since he returned to action in week 5; Tate has 202 yards rushing and two rushing touchdowns in his last two games. This week with the Jaguars defense on the slate, Tate draws the league’s defense that allows the 4^th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including 7 total touchdowns. Ben is a must play today.

RB-Justin Forsett

The Ravens running back Justin Forsett has been solid all season and today gets a great matchup against the Falcons defense that allows the most yards rushing to opposing running backs and second most receptions this season. Forsett is coming off his first 100-yard rushing effort last week and with 23 receptions this season; he is the second leading receiver on the team. Forsett is a key cog in the Ravens offense and should be heavily involved on Sunday in a favorable matchup; get him in your lineup.

TE-Jordan Reed

A lot of folks like his skill set and physical ability, but his knock has always been his health. Reed is healthy this week and coming off a nice 8-catch, 92-yards receiving off 11 targets last week against the Cardinals. This Sunday Reed has a tasty matchup against the Titans defense that allows the 8^th most fantasy points, including 5 touchdowns to opposing tight ends. He’s a strong start today.

Week 7 Sleepers

RB-Jerick McKinnon

The Vikings running back will be making his second consecutive start today against a formidable Bills run defense, but his matchup could be a little more favorable than what most think. The Bills have done a good job against the run this season for the most part, but there have been signs of cracks in the armor. Running backs like Matt Forte, Lamar Miller, and George Winn all averaged more than four yards per carry against the Bills this season, suggesting that an elusive speedy back like McKinnon could have similar success. I like the Vikings rookie this Sunday if you are in great need at the position.

WR-Jermaine Kearse

With the sudden trade of wide receiver/return specialist Percy Harvin, the fallout in Seattle could be the rise of some hidden talent. Wide receiver Jermaine Kearse has shown great speed on special teams, but in a limited role on offense fantasy owners have yet to see his true potential. With Harvin gone, we could see a more expanded role for Kearse this week. I like the possibilities; he’s worth watching on Sunday.

That’s my take for week 7.

~David Ortega

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Saturday Evening Edition

September 27th, 2014 

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Night Quick Reads

Do the Numbers lie?

With bye weeks in effect for this Sunday’s slate of games, there are quite a few matchups worth paying close attention to and taking notes. As I survey all 11 games on Sunday and Monday nights matchup, I hear the numbers talking that fantasy owners should be listening to….

Fantasy owners looking for help in the backfield should be able to turn to Chargers running back Donald Brown for relief. The Chargers are thin at running back, so Brown figures to see the bulk of the work load on Sunday. He has a meaty matchup at home against the Jaguars and could be in for a nice day. The Jaguars are the worst defense in the league versus the run, allowing 160 yards per game and allow the most fantasy points against opposing running backs. Play Donald.

The Panthers are on the road this Sunday against the Ravens, but for wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin he could be making himself right at home facing a (Ravens) defense that has allowed the 5^th most receiving yards to opposing receivers. Through the first three weeks Benjamin has been targeted 27 times catching 16 balls, including two for scores. On Sunday he’ll be a busy Panther and should be solid play for fantasy owners. Start him if you got him.

It’s not a home game and it’s not road, but for Dolphins running back Lamar Miller his matchup against the Raiders could be a good game. Miller is coming off a 100-yard rushing effort in week 3 and this Sunday he faces the Raiders defense that ranks second to last against the run and is allowing the 7^th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. If fantasy owners are looking for a strong play, this has all the makings according to the numbers. Miller is worth starting.

That’s my take for week 4.

~David Ortega

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Friday Evening Edition

September 26th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Talking Fantasy Strategy

Stash’em If You Got’em

After watching the Redskins tight end Niles Paul go down last night with a head injury (diagnosed with a concussion), fantasy owners should pay close attention to next week’s injury report and pick up tight end Jordan Reed. Reed is the natural starter in Washington, but has been out the past several weeks with a hamstring injury. He’s sounds likes he’s still a week away from returning, but when healthy he’s a dynamic pass-catching target in the passing game. He’s a target worth stashing if you have roster room.

Another target for fantasy owners looking for talent waiting to blossom is Vikings running back Jerick McKinnon. This one is a flier that fantasy owners will have to be patience with. McKinnon has play making ability the Vikings run game sorely needs, but he’s yet to see much action thus far this season. With current starter Matt Asiata averaging a paltry 3 yards per carry and just 81 yards on the ground, McKinnon’s time may come sooner rather than later’ stash him with lots of patience.

With the Rams on bye in week four, fantasy owners will have to wait and see what happens under center. The last call from head coach Jeff Fischer indicated he would turn the reigns back over to quarterback Shaun Hill when healthy; this despite the fact that 3^rd year quarterback Austin Davis has continued to improve. Davis is coming off a 327 passing yards, three touchdown effort in week 3 where he also completed better than 70% of his throws. His three touchdowns were his first of the season, but also a big indicator that Davis has potential. It will be interesting to see if the Rams move back with Hill or stay the course with Davis. In two quarterback leagues Davis may not be worth a deuce, but could be worth a stash.

In Cleveland I am liking the looks of running back Isaiah Crowell. In three games he’s averaging better than 5 yards per carry and has scored three touchdowns; the kid is productive. The Browns may have to looks of a crowded backfield with running backs Ben Tate and Torrance West included, which is why Crowell would definitely be worth stashing (if your lineup is not in dire need) at this time until fantasy owners see how the carries will be distributed. Crowell has been too good to linger on the bench for too long, stay patient and the rewards will come.

Just some of my takes for week 4.

~David Ortega

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Sunday Morning Edition

September 21st, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Gametime

Favorites for Week 3

It’s Sunday morning and time to set those line-ups for Week 3. This past week I have been looking at the numbers, reflecting back on some of the action I have been able to catch, and taking notes from around the many sites and shows covering fantasy football.

With all this information, I must know what I am doing right? Wrong, I would be just as confused as anyone, but fortunately it does not matter. I have fun playing fantasy football and in the grand scheme, that’s what matter. Of course winning is fun too!

The Four Horsemen

In week 3, if my hopes of winning rely on Bills quarterback EJ Manuel that might be a good thing. The Bills are off to a fast start 2-0, and with a home game scheduled today facing a west coast team, the chances are good they could be 3-0 by day’s end. Manuel intrigues me today, because he’ll face a defense that allows 8.2 yards per pass (tied for 5^th most) and has allowed the 5^th most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks. With his arms and legs in play, I believe Manuel is a sneaky play for week 3.

In the backfield I have been betting large on Colts running back Ahmad Bradshaw. He’s coming off a two-score performance last Monday night and has a prime matchup against Jacksonville. The Jaguars defense allows the most fantasy points to opposing running backs and has surrendered 5 total touchdowns to the position. Bradshaw is golden to be a solid play today.

Split out wide, my money today is on Texans wide receiver Andre Johnson. There was some speculation in the preseason about Johnson’s outlook; would he be traded, has he lost a step, is he on the decline. His 2014 campaign is not lighting any fires, but facing the Giants defense that allows the 5^th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers could help to ignite it. The Giants secondary has also surrendered 355 yards receiving to the position (5^th most), numbers that favor a strong outing for Johnson; play him with confidence.

At the tight end spot, I am rolling out with the Titans Delanie Walker. He’s had a strong start this season with 13 receptions for 179 yards and two scores. He’s facing a Bengals defense that allowed 10 receptions to the opposing tight end back in week 1. Walker may not need as many balls to do damage, but his 18 targets in two games suggest he’ll be a busy man on Sunday. I like one of those to come in the red zone for pay dirt. Walker is my play at tight end today.

These are my Sunday takes for week 3.

~David Ortega

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Saturday Evening Edition

September 20th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Night Quick Reads

Do the Numbers lie?

Looking at Sunday’s matchups there are a lot of key matchups to take note, but you also can’t forget to pay attention to what the numbers are saying. With 20 line-ups on tap to set for Sunday week 3, I am looking for any and every parcel of information that will help me find the strongest plays.

When I look at all of my matchups, I am hoping the numbers don’t lie….

The Colts will invade swamp country on Sunday when they face the Jaguars in Jacksonville and running back Ahmad Bradshaw could be looking to do some serious damage. The Jaguars defense is ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs and their four rushing touchdowns allowed this season are most in the league. Bradshaw is coming off an 18 touch performance last Monday that produced 5 receptions, 96 total yards of offense and two scores. This is a great matchup for Bradshaw, he’s a week 3 must play!

The Cleveland Browns defense was stung last week for 10 catches and two scores by Saints tight end Jimmy Graham. This Sunday the Ravens tight end Dennis Pitta is not quite the same caliber player as Graham, but in week one Pitta posted his own 10 catch game. The Browns allow the 7^th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and Pitta with his 19 targets in two games could be in for a big day on Sunday. He’s a favorite for Week 3.

If you are looking deep on your roster and you come across the Bills wide receiver Sammy Watkins, if you have not started him yet this Sunday could be the time to do just that. Watkins is coming off a strong week 2 performance; 8 catches on 11 targets for 117 yards and a touchdown. Watkins will face the Chargers defense in week 3, the same defense that has allowed 7^th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Watkins is a playmaker and could be geared to make more plays on Sunday; he’s a strong week 3 flex play.

The Chargers are making the long distance travel across country to face the Bills on Sunday in week 3, even though they are good team this could be a tough matchup. The Chargers defense allows the 10^th most fantasy points and facing running backs CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson offers no comfort. Spiller has yet to breakout this season and Jackson too has been quiet, but the two could be in for a big day of production against the Bolts. The Chargers have allowed more than 230 yards of offense, 16 receptions (2^nd most allowed) and three touchdowns to running backs; Spiller and Jackson are on track for a productive Sunday.

The Chiefs defense has been a mere shadow of itself from a year ago and the timing could not be any better for Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill and Company. The Chiefs secondary is allowing the 3^rd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including 5 touchdowns (tied for most in the league) and zero interceptions. With safety Eric Berry already ruled out, the matchup just gets better for Tannehill and wide receiver Mike Wallace (19 targets in 2014). Tannehill is coming off a tough loss against the Bills in week 2, so he and Wallace will look to get back on track this Sunday. In deeper leagues both could be sneaky plays for week 3.

These are more of my takes for week 3.

~David Ortega

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Wednesday Evening Edition

September 17th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Don’t Hit the Snooze Button

My Week 2 Sleepers

Week 3 starts in less than 24 hours, so like all fantasy owners we need to be quick to the wire if we are to make any worthy pickups that count; but who to grab?

After watching a lot of football last Sunday, one player that jumped out at me in the earlier games was the Bills rookie wide receiver Sammy Watkins. I really wasn’t expecting a lot from the kid this season, but he’s a superior talent and has clearly separated himself from the other receivers on the squad. Watkins leads the team with 15 targets this season, including last weeks 11 when caught 8 passes for 117 yards and a score. This week Watkins and company host a Chargers defense that allows the 7^th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. This is a good matchup for Watkins; if he’s available he needs to be owned and could be a strong flex or WR3 play this Sunday.

Like the Bills rookie wide receiver, the Texans have a young rising star in wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. The 2^nd year wideout has had a nice start to his 2014 campaign recording 7 receptions for 111 yards and two touchdowns. Hopkins is second on the team with 10 targets and has already developed a nice rapport with quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. This week’s matchup against a Giants defense that allows the 5^th most fantasy points to opposing wide receiver is a prime matchup and great opportunity for Hopkins to breakout. He’s also a nice flex or WR3 play for week 3.

Now here’s an opportunity play that I am feeling real good about. With the Bengals looking at a week 4 bye, it would only make sense to sit an ailing A.J. Green. Fantasy owners will have to wait for the updates and see if Green sits or plays. If Green is sidelined, I like wide receiver Mohamed Sanu to pick up the slack. The Bengals will play host to Tennessee this week and the Titan’s secondary has been good thus far this season. But last week, the Cowboys number receiver posted big numbers and with Green out I like Sanu to play that same role. With Green sidelined in week 2, Sanu only targeted four times was very effective totaling 3 receptions for 84 yards and a touchdown. If it’s Sanu and no Green, I would expect more of the same this week; he could be a low-end WR2 or WR3.

That’s my take for week 3.

~David Ortega

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Tuesday Evening Edition

September 16th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Football Heroes

Week 2 Studs

If there is a plaque to be handed out, if there is a vote to be cast, Eagles running back Darren Sproles gets my vote and deserves the plaque for Week 2 Fantasy Stud. His Monday night performance alone saved my butt in several leagues; 7 receptions for 152 receiving yards and oh yeah, 4 carries for 26 more yards on the ground with a score. Now that’s production from the Tank.

Like Sproles in week 2, another running back playing in Monday night’s contest that displayed his studly-ness was the Colts Ahmad Bradshaw. Healthy in 2014 and getting a fair-share chance to contribute Bradshaw, although greatly over-shadowed by Sproles did hold his own. The Colts number two (and maybe soon to be number one) ball carrier tallied 18 touches (13 carries, 5 receptions) on the evening for 96 total yards. Bradshaw also found the end-zone twice; an outstanding and complete performance for the Colts running back.

And not to be left out or forgotten, Buccaneers running back Bobby Rainey provided a stellar performance on Sunday in a losing cause. Rainey filling in for the injured Doug Martin, was more than admirable, he was scintillating. Rainey carried the ball 22 times for 144 yards on the ground, including a long run of 31 yards. He also displayed his versatility catching 3 passes for another 30 yards. Even though Rainey did not find the end zone, he was still an outstanding fantasy stud.

Going forward, Sproles and Bradshaw need to be in lineups. Even as the proverbial number two in Philly and Indy respectively, both backs are part of the game plan and will see their share of touches. In Tampa, even with the prospect of Martin returning in week 3, Rainey needs to be owned. Until we see the dynamic of the two on the field together (not necessarily at the same time) owners should temper their expectations and see how Rainey’s role plays out. He definitely has some value as a flex in deeper leagues, but has the potential of being in play week in and week out.

That’s my early takes for week 3.

~David Ortega

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Sunday Morning Edition

September 14th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Gametime

Last Minute Notes

Well, we actually have more than a couple of minutes; we are several hours away from Sunday kickoff. But in the whole scheme of things this is last minute considering how much time we have had available to set our line-ups.

With Sunday kickoff for week 2 of the NFL just a few short hours away, I thought I would take a look at some of today’s matchups and offer some helpful insight or just give you my opinion; whatever makes you feel most comfortable.

While I am setting my 19 head-2-head fantasy lineups this morning and one thing I will be remembering, in the Jacksonville-Washington game today the Jaguars will not have the services of safety Johnathan Cyprien (concussion). Cyprien is a great talent in the secondary and was second on the team in tackles last season with 104. Last week when Cyprien left the game against the Eagles, the Jaguars secondary had a lot of problems, blown assignments and allowed several big plans. As a result the defense surrendered 34 second half points.

The Redskins offense is in great need of some kind of spark coming off their poor performance in week one scoring just six points. The Jaguars may be just what the doctored ordered. With Cyprien ruled out this week, the Redskins wide receivers Pierre Garcon (10rec/77yds) and DeSean Jackson (8rec/62yds) may finally get on track and hit a few big plays in the pass game. I like both plays today and I would even consider tight end Niles Paul (4 targets in week 1) a sneaky sleeper play today for those with need at the position. And of course with all this love for his receivers, I have to say I like quarterback Robert Griffin III to bounce back today with a solid performance.

Looking at another matchup today with injury implications having an impact, the Saints-Browns matchup is interesting. Browns tight end Jordan Cameron has been listed as questionable all with a shoulder injury that he reaggravated in week one. With Cameron limited or possibly ruled out, I am in heavy favor of wide receiver Andrew Hawkins (8rec/87yds last week). Hawkins played with the Bengals last season and came over to the Browns during the offseason. During training camp he built up a nice rapport with quartback Brian Hoyer; in week one Hawkins was targeted 10 times. Today could be much of the same. Hawkins is not a big play, but has the look of a volume receiver; he’ll see plenty more targets and rack up more catches. That’s PPR gold.

Circling back the wagons and looking at an earlier morning matchup in the Northeast, I believe the Dolphins-Bills matchup today will be a close game. I believe both teams will be able to stay with the game-plans and run the ball extensively. The Bills did a solid job in week one limiting the Bears run game allowing 86 yards on 18 carries. The key number here is the 18 carries, because today the Bills defense is likely to see a significantly larger number facing the M&M boys. In week one against the Patriots, the Dolphins running backs Knowshon Moreno and Lamar Miller combined for 35 carries. Moreno is the favorite here, leading the way in week one with 24 totes, but Lamar Miller still has plenty of fantasy relevance. Miller carried the ball 11 times to the tune of 59 yards; he also snagged four passes. Both have value and both should be in your lineup today; Moreno as an RB2 and Miller as a flex.

These are just a couple of my takes for Week 2.

Good luck.

~David Ortega

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Friday Evening Edition

September 12th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Week 2 Values

Diamonds or Coal

After one week you are already rethinking your fantasy football draft aren’t you? Well let’s not go into panic mode just yet. The season is young and we’re only one week in; there are plenty of fixes available and plenty of diamonds in the rough to find.

I was able to take in quite a few games last weekend and let’s just say I saw plenty and took notes. Players like Steve Smith (24.8 fantasy points*) in Baltimore and Jake Locker (23.4 fantasy points*) in Tennessee were pleasant surprises with their week one performances, as well as Arizona’s Carson Palmer (24.3 fantasy points*) and Houston’s DeAndre Hopkins (18.9 fantasy points*). These all were players that were likely taken later in drafts and not started in week one, but plays that could help your fantasy team in week two.

Diamonds…

A couple of more diamonds found from week one that could give your lineup a needed boost would include the Falcons wide receiver-return man Devin Hester. With his six targets in week one, Hester was clearly a part of the passing game and he took advantage of those opportunities; the speedster hauled in 5 passes for 99 yards. This kind of production could land Hester in your lineup this Sunday as a nice flex option.

This week the Niners will be at home to face a Bears defense that allowed over 190 yards rushing in week one. Starting running back Frank Gore should benefit from the week two matchup, but don’t expect the Niners to overwork the 31 year-old ball carrier. Rookie running back Carlos Hyde has been impressive and productive rushing for 50 yards and a score off seven carries in week one. The Niners will definitely run the ball on Sunday and Hyde should figure in nicely with double-digit carries; he should be a solid flex this week.

In week one the Cowboys defense had trouble keeping up with the Niners tight end Vernon Davis (two touchdown receptions in week one). This week former Niners tight end Delanie Walker will get his shot at the Cowboys secondary. Walker is coming off a nice week one performance (3 receptions, 37 yards receiving, and a touchdown) and could follow it with a solid week two. Fantasy owners looking for tight end help should insert Walker here.

Coal….

The Rams offense looked anemic in week one only producing 6 points. One of the reasons for the deficiency is their lack of a running game and absence of wide receiver Kenny Britt. There was some talk during the preseason suggesting Britt could make a rebound in 2014 and while we are only in week one, three targets and zero receptions is definitely not the start he or fantasy owners was looking for. Britt should not be owned until we see some presence of a receiver and consistency.

These are just my takes for week 2.

*standard one point PPR

~David Ortega

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Tuesday Evening Edition

September 9th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Week 1 Recap

Sorting through the Debris

The fantasy football roller-coaster is just starting to pick up speed and with one week in the books, there’s so much to cover and talk about. We have to look at who did what, who was a bust, which sleepers emerged, and which studs were on par this past Sunday. Was there real concern in the Steelers backfield with Le’Veon Bell and LeGarette Blount splitting carries, who is the real feature back in New England, and with Wes Welker missing which Broncos receiver emerged to pick up the slack?

With all of this to sort through it can become real over-whelming for fantasy owners looking to rebound from their week one debacle or continue their winning ways following a season opening win. There’s never too much information when it comes to fantasy football, just sometimes we need to take a minute to sort through the debris and see a clear picture.

The refuse…

With Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell seeing the bulk of work (27 touches) in week one, looks like fantasy owners that drafted running back LeGarrette Blount (4 touches) may have to rethink their strategy. He did sneak in a score, but going forward if he is limited to few touches, owners can’t count on consistent production.

There was a lot of hype surrounding the Lions rookie tight end Eric Ebron, but for now that’s all there is. Ebron was targeted just twice and did not record a catch. He’s not worth owning at this time; at least not until fantasy owners see something.

The Cardinals running back Andre Ellington saw plenty of action on Monday night; 18 touches. Back-up running back Jonathan Dwyer saw about the most action he might see all season; 9 touches for 28 yards. You can toss Dwyer back into the pile.

The Salvage….

The Ravens basically benched running back Bernard Pierce after fumbling, which opened the door for running back Justin Forsett. The journeyman back finished with 16 touches, which included 6 targets. Going forward, in light of the Ray Rice loss Forsett should continue to see plenty of action as long as he responds as he did in week one; he had 84 total yards and a score.

The Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger likes his receiver Antonio Brown, but his second year wideout Marcus Wheaton could quickly become his second favorite. Wheaton has great speed and tremendous upside, along with his seven targets (tied for most on team) on Sunday he looks to be busy fantasy receiver as well. Wheaton is probably a low WR3 or flex at the moment, but should be owned.

So much for the worry surrounding Texans receiver Andre Johnson; he was a bit quiet on Sunday, but still turned in a decent fantasy day with six receptions for 93 yards. His nine targets should be a real indicator he’s still a safe fantasy play on Sunday.

The Broncos just have too many weapons and with Wes Welker out, quarterback Peyton Manning just dipped into his receiving depth targeting wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders nine times. Sanders also added a carry for 11 yards. He’s a safe weekly play as a mid flex or high WR3.

Lastly, I heard about this kid early last week, the Saints rookie receiver Brandin Cooks and what I saw on Sunday confirmed the deal. Cooks is a special talent that we’ll continue to see lots of moving forward. On Sunday he totaled 95 yards with one receiving touchdown on 8 touches. In the Saints explosive pass game Cooks should be a gamer. Owners may want to temper their expectations momentarily until we see a larger sample, but he should be a safe flex for now.

These are just some of my takes for the Week 1 recap.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday morning Edition

September 7th, 2014 

David’s Daily Digest

SUNDAY MORNING GAMETIME

Numbers to help the Cause

With the Week 1 Sunday kickoff just hours away, fantasy owners are scrambling to make those last minutes tweaks to their lineups. If you are like me, I am always looking for data and numbers to help me find the best plays for Sunday.

Here are some of the numbers you should know for week 1;

Even though the Rob Ryan Saints defense only allowed the 5^th fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season, Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has had success in the past throwing the ball. In 4 of his last 6 starts versus the Saints Ryan has thrown for more than 300 yards. In his one game last season against the Saints when he had all of his weapons Ryan also completed 65 percent of his passes and threw two touchdowns.

Facing the Ravens defense at home today, Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton may be one to avoid. In his two starts last season against Baltimore Dalton has been picked off seven times, including four at home in the finale.

The Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer was coming off the board as a mid QB-2 in most drafts and even later in some. He’s been a little overlooked, but in 2013 in the second half of the season Palmer showed some glimmer. In his last 8 starts he completed over 60 percent of his passes in five of those, throwing multiple touchdowns in 5 of those contests as well. Palmers’ numbers down the stretch were not out of this world, but they should not be overlooked; 295 yards passing per game, 14 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Monday night he’ll face the Chargers secondary that allowed the 8^th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

The Bills will use a committee of both running back CJ Spiller and running back Fred Jackson (both were top 30 running backs in fantasy last season). Even with a lesser experienced quarterback (E.J. Manuel) under center, both should find success on the ground facing the Bears defense today. Last season Chicago allowed the second most fantasy points to running backs, including 19 rushing touchdowns, 2^nd most. Both Spiller and Jackson should be safe plays today.

There’s been little talk about Texans running back Arian Foster, and more importantly no talk about any injuries. A healthy Foster facing a suspect Redskins run defense could spell for a big day. Foster has the talent to blow up and with the Redskins allowing the 4^th most fantasy points to opposing running backs and 20 rushing touchdowns (most in the league) last season, he could be fantasy gold.

Just some numbers to know for Sunday week 1.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Evening Edition

September 6th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

MY WEEK 1 FAVORITES

No Sleep for the Wicked

So here we are less than 24 hours away from the first Sunday of NFL Week 1 and so begins the season long marathon we all love called fantasy football!

The season officially kicked off on Thursday night with the Packers and Seattle, but the fantasy season will actually kick into high gear Sunday morning. With that, many fantasy owners will be checking the wires for injury updates, taking to social media for line-up advice and searching for the week one sleepers.

Playing in many leagues this season, I am no different always trying to read between the lines, looking for deeper insight for the best plays on Sunday. After conducting my own quick research I have found a hand-full of Sunday wicked plays that I am in great favor of and leaning toward. Okay, maybe they are no wicked, but let's just say I like them.

Running back Steven Jackson nearly fell off the edge of the fantasy world during some fantasy drafts I participated in, going in the 10^th round and later. He’s being overlooked and greatly underrated due to his injury history, with running backs like Joique Bell, Toby Gerhart, and Lamar Miller going off the board in front of him.

The Falcons runner is healthy and sounds like he’s ready to go this week. His matchup against the Saints 19^th ranked run defense does not necessarily spell big day, but playing at home with the return of wide receiver Julio Jones and a healthy Roddy White should open up plenty of holes for the run game. Jackson played in both matchups last season averaging 17 plus touches and 16 fantasy points (standard one point per reception PPR leagues) per contest. The Falcons don’t figure to lean on Jackson too heavily in week 1, but he should see plenty of action and could post solid numbers as a low-end RB2 or flex start.

It’s no secret that Vikings wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson is a great talent, but now in the Norv Turner system he could quickly blossom into fantasy stud. Last season Patterson came on late in the season scoring at least one touchdown in each of his final five games averaging 17 fantasy points per game (standard one point per reception PPR leagues). Patterson also showed his ceiling potential with two of those contests with more than 20 fantasy points. Patterson would appear to be the favorite in Norv’s passing game plan and could elevate his fantasy stock to top shelf. Although he has a tough matchup on Sunday against the Rams defense, he’s facing a secondary that allowed the 8^th most pass receptions to receivers last season; he’s get his.

One more fantasy nugget for week 1 is wide receiver Torrey Smith. It’s funny to me that his last name is Smith, because the last time Kubiak was calling plays for an offense in Denver (quite a few years ago) he had a pretty good receiver there named (Rod) Smith. The Ravens wideout is the go-to receiver; he has great speed and nice hands, if he can add some crisp route running to his repertoire with Kubiak calling plays he could suddenly become a fantasy favorite well beyond week 1. At home last season against the Bengals, Smith posted 15 fantasy points (standard one point per reception PPR), so in the new system under Kubiak fantasy owners can expect to Smith featured even more with greater results.

That’s my take for Week 1.

~David Ortega