FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Edition
December 29th, 2012  

David’s Daily Digest

“Fantasy is not over”

Calvin a lock for 2000
Megatron has 2,000 yards in his sights and there’s little doubt that he will achieve his goal. In his last five games Calvin is averaging better than 16 targets per game; his average stat line is 52 receptions, 775 yards receiving, and two touchdowns. Fantasy owners with something left to play for can expect another big performance against the Bears on Sunday.

Count on a big day from AP
The Vikings running back Adrian Peterson needs a huge day on Sunday against the Packers to eclipse the rushing record yards in a season. Record or not, fantasy owners can count on a big day from AP. Back in week 13 AP shredded the Packers defense in Lambeau for 210 yards and last season at home he torched them for 175 yards. AP has six career 100-yard games against the Pack, expect a lot of AP and plenty of yards.

Alexander ready to face Raiders
After a disappointing week 15 performance Chargers wide receiver Danario Alexander rebounded with a three-catch, 69 yard, and one touchdown performance against the Jets stingy pass defense. Alexander will be looking to finish strong and should find a lot of success against a Raiders secondary that has surrendered 26 passing touchdowns. If your fantasy season has yet to end, Alexander is a strong play this Sunday.

Hillman could be a flier this week
The Broncos starting running back Knowshon Moreno is expected to play, but with sore ribs he could see his work load cut back a bit. Hillman has been steady this season as the backup and could see some increased work on Sunday. The Chiefs rank 26th against the run and Hillman has breakaway speed; do the math. Hillman may have play this Sunday as a flex in the deepest of leagues.

Spiller ready to finish Strong
The Bills running back CJ Spiller is a little nicked up, but he should be fine for Sunday against the Jets. Spiller is coming off back to back 100-yard games (has five this season) and looks like a strong bet to finish the 2012 season with three straight facing the Jets 27th ranked run defense. Spiller started the season with 169 yards against the Jets back in week one, he’ll be looking for a repeat this Sunday. Spiller may have a tough task at reaching the 169 he posted 16 weeks ago, but fantasy owners can count on another solid day and double digit fantasy points against a defense that allows the most fantasy points to running backs.


More takes for week 17.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY MORNING GAMETIME

Sunday Edition
December 23rd, 2012

  

Sunday Morning Gametime

Randall Cobb
The Packers wide receiver Randall Cobb has been the clear go-to option for several weeks now and this Sunday little will change. He’s a solid WR2 option and should be in all line-ups against the Titans 18th ranked pass defense.

Demaryrius Thomas
Broncos wide receiver Demaryrius Thomas was held in check last week, but don’t count on him being quiet two weeks in a row. Last Sunday it was Decker, this Sunday you can expect Thomas to be more involved; he’s worth starting as a low-end WR2.

Lance Moore
The Saints wide receiver Lance Moore should be a part of the Saints passing parade today against the Cowboys. The Cowboys are ranked 19th against the pass and could mean a lot of Brees and his receivers. Moore is more  of a low end WR3 or flex and worth starting in deeper leagues.

Reggie Bush
The Dolphins running back Reggie Bush has a nice matchup today against the Bills 30th ranked run defense. Bush has played more as a utility player rather than a feature back much of this season, but today he could see a few more touches. Unless you have better options, he’s a low-end RB3 or flex in most formats

Kenny Britt
The Titans wide receiver Kenny Britt has not been much of a fantasy option this season and with so much inconsistency under center he’s a risky play this week that’s hardly worth it. The Titans wide receivers in general are tough to predict, if better options exist all should be avoided.

Josh Freeman
The Buccaneers quarterback Josh Freeman is coming off a very disappointing performance for fantasy owners, so it’s hard to imagine he’d lay another egg in week 16. Fantasy owners can expect a better game this week from Freeman, but temper your expectations the Rams defense is pretty good and ranked 9th against the pass.

Anquan Boldin
The Ravens wide receiver Anquan Boldin was held without a catch last week, he’s not going to blow up this week but could be a serviceable flex option in the deepest leagues. The Ravens passing game has been inconsistent, but before last week Boldin has been one of its’ more consistent options.

Danario Alexander
The Chargers number one receiver Danario Alexander was held to zero catches last week and draws another tough matchup this week. He’s not likely to post another donut, but it could be another long day with low out-put; avoid is possible.

Just a few notes and thoughts for today’s games…

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: QUICK TAKES

Saturday Edition
December 22nd, 2012  

David’s Daily Digest
MNF (on Saturday) Quick Takes

The Lions have little or no running game to speak of heading into this week 16 matchup with the Falcons expect to see a lot of Matthew Stafford (which has become the norm). Stafford is averaging 50 pass attempts in each of his last four starts and is very likely to exceed that plateau tonight. Despite the Falcons stingy ways versus the pass (just 13 touchdowns allowed this season), it will be tough to keep Stafford and Megatron out of the end zone. Stafford is a reach this week, but is still a better option than Flacco, Dalton, or Freeman.

Megatron remains the one constant in the Lions lineup week in and week out. Last week Johnson pulled down 10 passes for more than 120 yards, but was kept out of the end zone. The Falcons secondary ranks 17th against the pass; expect better numbers today from Megatron and at least one trip to pay dirt.

The Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan leads a group that even at 12-2, they are still fighting for respect from the rest of the league. Ryan is coming off an impressive win and performance against the Giants last week passing for 270 yards and tossing three touchdowns and will likely need a similar performance and win tonight to fight off the critics again. The Lions are no walk in the park, but Ryan has too many weapons to exploit the Lions 11th ranked secondary. Ryan has been on and off at times this season, but under the light and in the dome(s) he’s golden for fantasy owners; start him.

The Falcons running back Michael Turner is coming off a strong 52 yards rushing performance against the Giants last week. The Lions rank 18th against the run and though they allow the 15th fewest fantasy points to running backs, the defense has surrendered 11 rushing touchdowns this season. The Falcons should move the ball well in the air and could set up some easy scores for Turner. He’s not a top-10 start this week, but he’s a worthy fantasy start for championship weekend.

The Falcons and Lions will meet in primetime on this Saturday night and wide receiver Roddy White is a go. White is Mr. Monday night, the last time the Falcons played during the Monday night broadcast was back in week 2, he tallied 8 catches for 102 yards and a score. White has always been big in the Falcons passing attack and tonight should be more of the same. Facing an uninspired and underachieving Lions team and secondary tonight, expect White to play big with much more on the line. He’s a solid start for fantasy owners.

more Starts & Sits…

Jaquizz Rodgers is a risky start, he’s been on and off, but has yet to produce the type of game worthy of starting except in custom and PPR leagues.

Tony Shceffler should be a very good start, but too many drops and inconsistent play make him a shaky start. Nonetheless he does offer a higher ceiling, with limited options he may be worth a flier.

Julio Jones has too much potential and playmaking ability to sit. He’s the very definition of hit and miss, but owners can’t afford to see this freakish talent.

The Lions basically offer a committee rotation at running back with none of the options standing out from the others, avoid this backfield if possible.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Edition
December 22nd, 2012  

David’s Daily Digest

Ballard has a Good matchup.
The Colts running back Vick Ballard has been solid the past two weeks in fantasy scoring in double digits in each of his past two games. This Sunday Ballard will line up against the leagues 27th ranked run defense and will have a great shot at scoring in double digits for the third straight game. The Chiefs allow the 8th most fantasy points to running backs.

Bradshaw very shaky for Week 16.
Running back Ahmad Bradshaw is making the trip to Baltimore, but given his injury status he remains a big risk on Sunday. Even if Bradshaw is active, the Giants could lean on other options limiting the ball carriers production. Given this is championship weekend, fantasy owners should look to alternative options to play it safe.

Cam has the hot hand
Panthers quarterback Cam Newton has been playing very well his past four starts averaging 264 yards passing while completing 62% of his throws; he has also tossed 9 touchdowns with no interceptions during the same run. Cam has also chipped in with 253 rushing yards and three scores in his last four games. This Sunday Cam will face the Raiders defense that allows the 7th most fantasy points to quarterbacks and have allowed 25 touchdowns. This is a great matchup for Cam on Championship Sunday.

Spiller set for another big Sunday
The Bills running back CJ Spiller has topped double-digits in fantasy points in 5 of his last 6 games. He’s coming off a solid 16 points performance (103 rushing yards with a touchdowns) last week against the Seahawks, and looks like a solid play this Sunday against the Dolphins 8th ranked run defense.

Stafford looking to rebound.
The Lions running game this season has become virtually non-existent and with Megatron on the trail of Jerry Rice’s record, Stafford will not be shy to put the ball in the air. The Falcons defense ranks 17th against the pass, so expect to see Stafford continue his torrid pace of averaging 50 passes per game (over his last four starts). Stafford has been a cold the past three weeks with five picks to three touchdowns; this could be the weekend to get hot.

Bryant a risk worth taking?
The Cowboys playmaking receiver Dez Bryant is playing with damaged wing, but despite the injury he was able to haul in 4 of 9 targets for 59 yards and a touchdown. Bryant is a big part of the Cowboys offense and one of quarterback Tony Romo’s most lethal weapons on the girdiron. With 9 targets last week, injured or not Romo shows no fear looking Bryant’s direction. A risk maybe, but his upside is top-10 talent and worth the play.

More takes for week 16.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY MORNING GAMETIME

Sunday Edition
December 16th, 2012  

Sunday Morning Gametime

Dez Bryant
The Cowboys wide receiver won’t have any padding to protect the injured finger, so he will be experiencing excruciating pain each time he catches and handles the rock; don’t like the odds for a big game under these circumstances.

David Wilson
The rookie is getting the start and will see plenty of touches today. With his great speed and favorable matchup against the Falcons defense, he has tremendous upside. I like Wilson as a top 10 fantasy RB today.

Roddy White
The Falcons wide receiver was always going to play; this guy has too much heart to sit. Bad knee or not, he’ll get his especially if Ryan is playing catchup or caught in a shootout against the Giants today.

Danario Alexander
The Chargers have a new number one receiver and he’s been hot over the past several weeks. Alexander is a beast and you have to like his matchup against the Panthers today, so start him with confidence.

Darren McFadden
The Raiders may finally see today the Darren McFadden that fantasy owners were hoping they’d see when they drafted back in August. McFadden has a plush matchup at home against a weak Chiefs run defense.

Jonathan Dwyer
The Steelers are a running team and have committed to Dwyer. I like his chances at pounding out a good day with at least a score against the Cowboys 16th ranked run defense.

Josh Freeman
The Saints and Buccaneers could be locked in a shootout; Freeman is going to have to put up numbers today to keep the Bucs in the game. He may not accumulate big yards, because of the team’s success on the ground, but he should see plenty of red=zone opportunities.

Donnie Avery
The Patriots showed on Monday night, what we have been seeing the past several weeks, holes in the Texans secondary. Reggie Wayne will be the focus of the defense which should open up plenty of opportunities for the other Colts receivers including Donnie Avery.

Just a few notes and thoughts for today’s games…

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: MY RANKINGS RB (WEEK 15)

Saturday Edition
December 15th, 2012  

My Rankings

(Does not include Thursday’s Game)

Running backs

1. Marshawn Lynch
2. Doug Martin
3. Alfred Morris
4. Adrian Peterson
5. Arian Foster
6. Darren McFadden
7. Jamal Charles
8. Knowshon Moreno
9. David Wilson
10. Chris Johnson

11. CJ Spiller
12. Darren Sproles
13. Shonn Greene
14. Ray Rice
15. DeMarco Murray
16. Frank Gore
17. Matt Forte
18. Trent Richardson
19. Jonathan Dwyer
20. Steven Jackson


My notes: 

Marshawn Lynch (1.266 rushing yards and 9 rushing touchdowns) has been running hard and running well this season and should continue on Sunday against the Bills 28th ranked run defense. Lynch has posted seven 100 yard rushing games this season and has scored in two straight games. Against the Bills (18 rushing touchdowns allowed and 134.5 yards per game allowed) he’s a lock to make it three straight and post his eighth 100-yard game.

The Broncos running game is now led by running back Knowshon Moreno who has totaled 361 yards (273 rushing, 88 receiving) in three games. This Sunday he’s on the road to face the Ravens and their 25th ranked run defense; Moreno has seen an average of 28 touches in his last three games, including 36 last week, so he’s a sure bet to see another heavy load of touches and production.

Running back CJ Spiller will be the feature running back back this week and will see plenty of work, but this Sunday he draws a tough start against the Seahawks 11th ranked run defense. Spiller should still be effective on Sunday, just don’t expect a huge day; 75-85 yards rushing and 20-30 yards receiving, but trips to the end zone could be scarce.

Rookie running back David Wilson will get the start for the Giants on Sunday and he should see plenty of touches, but mixed emotions with this one. Wilson has breakaway speed and big play potential, but without enough film on the kid it’s tough to expect huge numbers. He should still be highly productive against the Falcons 23rd ranked defense, and with his speed there’s always a great chance for a big day.

The Raiders are still the Raiders and with a player like running back Jamal Charles toting the rock, he’s always a threat for the homerun. Charles is ranked 5th this season in the league with 1,220 yards rushing and he’s coming off a big performance a week ago. The Raiders allow more than 130 yards on the ground and have allowed 17 rushing touchdowns this season; it has the making for only Charles second 100-yard rushing game against the Raiders in 5 seasons.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: MY RANKINGS QB (WEEK 15)

Saturday Edition
December 15th, 2012  

My Rankings

(Does not include Thursday’s Game)

Quarterbacks 

1. Drew Brees
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Eli Manning
4. Cam Newton
5. Tom Brady
6. Peyton Manning
7. Matt Schaub
8. Josh Freeman
9. Matthew Stafford
10. Andrew Luck

11. Russell Wilson
12. Matt Ryan
13. Tony Romo
14. Jake Locker
15. Philip Rivers
16. Jay Cutler
17. Sam Bradford
18. Ben Roethlisberger
19. Joe Flacco
20. Carson Palmer

My notes: 

I like Buccaneers quarterback Josh Freeman this week against the Saints 30th ranked defense. The Saints are also allowing the most fantasy points to quarterbacks. 

Panthers quarterback Cam Newton has been on a roll and will face the leagues 22nd ranked pass defense; a good road matchup against a Chargers defense that allows the 11th most fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Despite facing one the leagues stingiest defenses, I still like Patriots quarterback Tom Brady to post solid numbers. Brady is mistake prone with 29 touchdowns this season and just four interceptions.

Andrew Luck is still a top ten this week; facing the Texans defense he’s going to put the ball in the air early and often. He may fall victim to a couple of miscues, but he’ll still throw for a lot of yards and should pick up a couple of scores to help out fantasy owners.

The Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning has been pretty consistent this season and I don’t expect things to change much on Sunday against the Ravens 23rd ranked pass defense. Peyton has 30 passing touchdowns and 3,820 passing yards this season and will be looking to improve on those numbers greatly this week. The Ravens can be stingy, but Peyton has many weapons and spreads the ball well.

I am not putting a lot of faith in Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan this week although he is at home against the Giants. Ryan has been dodging bullets the past several weeks and facing one of the league’s best pass rushes (31 sacks this season) could make for a long afternoon.

Drew Brees tops my chart this week facing the Buccaneers 32nd ranked pass defense. Brees has been off the past couple of weeks with just one passing touchdown and seven picks, but Sunday he’ll take his shots at a secondary that has allowed 23 touchdowns this season; a great matchup to rebound.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Edition
December 14th, 2012  

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Favorites

Alexander Worth Starting
The Chargers and quarterback Philip Rivers have found themselves a new go-to receiver in Danario Alexander. With his 6’5”, 217-lb frame, Alexander is bolting his way up the fantasy receivers charts; over his last five games he’s caught 30 passes for 494 yards receiving and five touchdowns. Alexander seems to be making Charger fans quickly forget about Vincent Jackson and with his current play, he’s becoming a favorite of fantasy owners. Alexander has been targeted 47 times over his past five games and is clearly on Rivers’ radar as a go-to option; Alexander is a borderline WR1/WR2 every week.

McFadden Ready to Bounce Back
Running back Darren McFadden has not had the type of season many fantasy owners were expecting when they drafted him during their fantasy drafts back in August. Through 14 weeks McFadden has missed four games and only rushed for more than 100 yards on two occasions. Last week in the Raiders loss the Broncos Run-DMC did manage to score for only his third time this season. This Sunday against the Chiefs 27th ranked run defense McFadden will be looking to bounce back; Run-DMC certainly has the potential to break out and the Chiefs are primed to crack. The Chiefs allow 4.6 yards per carry, over 130 yards per game and 17 run plays of 20 yards or more (most in the league); this is a good week to start McFadden.

Wilson the Hot Flavor this Week
The Giants will be without running back Ahmad Bradshaw (ruled OUT) this Sunday against the Falcons, opening the door for the speedy rookie running back David Wilson. Last week Wilson impressed on special teams and with a tasty matchup this week against the Falcons 23rd ranked run defense he looks ready to impress in the starting role. The Falcons allow almost 5 yards per carry and have surrendered 14 rushing touchdowns this season; Wilson is the hot start off the waiver wire this week.

Beast-mode Returns to Buffalo
The Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch returns to Buffalo on Sunday where his career began. Lynch was drafted in the first round by the Bills in the 2007 draft. This Sunday he brings his beast-mode to Ralph Wilson Stadium where he’ll face the 28th ranked run defense. Lynch has seven 100-yard rushing games this season and looks like a good bet to make it eight on Sunday. He’s a Top-10 fantasy start.

Madden-Curse no match for Megatron
Despite being on the cover of the famous Madden Game, Calvin Johnson continues to defy the infamous curse. It’s been a lean year for touchdowns this season for Megatron, but he continues to post big numbers each week. Johnson has posted six straight 100-yard receiving games (averaging 151 yards per game) and has 9 total this season. Johnson has also scored in four of his last five contests (5 touchdowns this season). This Sunday he matches up against the Cardinals 5th ranked secondary, but these days averaging nearly 15 targets per game (over his last five starts) it makes little difference who Megatron faces; he’s a must start every Sunday.

Morris Ready to Carry the Load
The Redskins rookie running back Alfred Morris has been running well for the Redskins this season with six 100 yard rushing games under his belt, including three straight. With the Redskins set to square off versus the Browns, Morris will have a great chance to make it four straight against the 17th ranked run defense. Morris is also averaging more than 22 touches over his last four starts, so fantasy owners have to like his chances at hitting the century mark on Sunday. Morris is a top-15 fantasy start.

More takes for week 15.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE FOUR HORSEMEN

Sunday Edition
December 9th, 2012

  

The Four Horsemen

My week 14 fantasy picks…

Quarterback (Eli Manning)
The Giants are at home today and quarterback Eli Manning has a prime matchup against the Saints 32nd ranked pass defense. The Saints allow the most fantasy points to quarterbacks and with wide receiver Hakeem Nicks set to play today, it’s a great chance for a big game from Eli; 300 yards passing, with multiple touchdowns.

Running Back (Alfred Morris)
The Redskins rookie running back Alfred Morris has been rolling of late tied for 3rd in the league with 1,106 yards rushing, he’s coming off consecutive 100-yard rushing efforts. Today he’s matched up against the Ravens 23rd ranked run defense and will look to make it three in a row.

Wide Receiver (Dez Bryant)
The Cowboys wide receiver has been playing at an extremely high level of late scoring in each of his last four games (six touchdowns total). He’s having a great 2012 campaign on the verge of surpassing the 1,000 yard receiving mark this week. He’s matched up against a pretty good Bengals defense, but one that was beat last week by Danario Alexander for 6 grabs and 102 yards; I expect at least those type of numbers from Dez today.

Tight End (Jermichael Finley)
Tight end Jermichael Finley has not been having a great 2012 by his standards and expectations of football prognosticators, but against the Lions 17th ranked pass defense his fortune could change. The Lions allow the 5th most fantasy points to tight ends and with Jordy Nelson sidelined, Finley could see more targets tonight. I like his chances this week.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SFFL WEEK 14

Sunday Edition
December 9th, 2012

  

Suicide Fantasy Football

Week 14

With the season winding down, my team is gearing up each week to make a run. Last week we posted a score of 118.52 points led by Bryce Brown’s (34.30 fantasy points) big game on Sunday night against the Cowboys and Cecil Shorts (20.70 fantasy points) effort against the Bills. 

The climb to the top is still steep, but there is light at the end. My SSFL team has climbed inside the top 10, for the moment and there’s no time to look back now.

Here’s my week 14 picks;

My Line-up 

Quarterback:
The Buccaneers quarterback Josh Freeman is having a solid 2012 with 23 touchdowns and 3,003 passing yards. Freeman is a top 10 quarterback this week facing the Eagles 31st ranked pass defense. In his last two starts his numbers have been modest, but this week he faces a defense that allows the 2nd most fantasy points to quarterbacks. This is the ideal week to start Freeman is you don’t have better options.

Running Backs:
On Thursday I played Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno and 119 yards rushing with a touchdown I was not disappointed. His 26.70 points have my fantasy team on the right track for week 14.

My other ball carrier this week is the Jets running back Shonn Greene. The Jets running game has not been much to get excited about this season, but this may be one of its best matchups this season facing the Jaguars (ranked 31st against the run). Greene is not a candidate for a huge output today, but he could record his third 100 yard effort this season and find himself making a trip or two to the end zone.

Wide Receivers:
With the Giants on the slate this week for the traveling Saints, I am expecting quarterback Drew Brees to attack the secondary deep and often. There’s no question his best weapon this season has been wide receiver Marques Colston (61 receptions, 828 yards receiving). Facing the Giants 22nd ranked pass defense, Colston should be able to take advantage of a secondary that allows the 4th most fantasy points to wide receivers.

On the other side out wide I am rolling with the Packers wide receiver Greg Jennings. This is Rodgers most trusted and reliable receiver, so you know the quarterback will have plenty of confidence looking his direction. Facing the Lions in what looks to be an aerial fest, I expect Jennings to see as many if not more than the 8 targets he saw last week, especially with Jordy Nelson on the sidelines.

Tight End:
I took a shot with the Raiders tight end Brandon Myers, coming off a career game a week ago. The Raiders offense has typically been pass happy, but on Thursday night the Broncos took away one of quarterback Carson Palmer’s favorite targets limiting Myers to just one catch for 7 yards.

Place Kicker:
The Buccaneers offense has been a bit of surprise this season and with a nice matchup at home against the Eagles defense. I expect to see the Bucs set up many scoring chances today, but will not be surprised to see them lean on kicker Conner Barth to convert a handful of opportunities.

Team Defense:
With the Buccaneers at home this week facing a rookie quarterback making only the third start of his career, I like their defense to play well. The Buccaneers are number one against the run and should keep rookie quarterback Nick Foles in third and long most of the afternoon. The Eagles are prone to mistakes and give up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses; I’m starting the Buccaneers.


These are my picks for week 14.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: (SATURDAY'S) FRIDAY FOOTBALL FIXX

Saturday Edition
December 8th, 2012

  

(Saturday’s) Friday Football Fixx

Fantasy Player News

Taking a look around the National Football League at fantasy football players for Sunday with the latest news and takes;

Nicks Questionable for Sunday
The Giants wide receiver Hakeem Nicks is listed as questionable for Sunday against the Saints, but the explosive wide out did practice on Friday. Nicks has been battling injuries all season and has yet to get back to 100%, but despite being limited this week he is still expected to play on Sunday. Nicks play has been improving over the past couple of weeks since his return from injury, but this little setback could be cause of concern for fantasy owners. His status is still up in the air, but if he is active against the Saints shaky secondary, he needs to be in fantasy lineups.

Nelson Ruled OUT for Sunday
Wide receiver Jordy Nelson has been ruled out for Sunday night against the Lions and will not play. With Nelson on the sidelines, fantasy owners for wide receivers Greg Jennings, Randall Cobb, and James Jones can expect a bump in fantasy value this week. Jennings will be playing only in his second game since returning from injury, but he is expected to fill the role of Nelson and should do just fine. With the Lions up next, Jennings should be in your lineups this week.

Sunday is Wayne’s World
The Colts veteran wide receiver Reggie Wayne has been having a prolific 2012 campaign and his current 88 catches and 1,156 yards receiving have him on pace to set career highs in both categories. Wayne is without question rookie quarterback Andrew Luck’s security blanket and has been targeted a league high 153 times this season. On Sunday the Colts have a very favorable matchup against the Titans 25th ranked pass defense, so fantasy owners can expect Luck to look Wayne’s way quite often.

Ivory Unlikely to Play Sunday
The Saints are likely to be without the services of running back Christopher Ivory (doubtful) on Sunday against the Giants. The Giants defense is ranked 21st against the run and even without Ivory, the Saints backfield remains crowded and convoluted. With the Saints being primarily a passing team, running back Darren Sproles remains the only reliable running back with any real fantasy value (in PPR leagues only).

With Harvin OUT All-Day Must Carry the Load
The Vikings have been riding the legs of running back Adrian Peterson (1,446 yard rushing in 2012) most of this season and with the loss of wide receiver Percy Harvin, it looks like he will have to carry the offensive load the rest of the way. Peterson is averaging just over 20 carries in his last six games and has rushed for more than 100 yards in each (he’s also scored in 5 of his last 6), including 210 yards last week. Fantasy owners can expect to see a heavy dose of All-Day the rest of the way and similar success on the ground, despite who Peterson faces

Turner to Play Sunday against Panthers
The Falcons will have running back Michael Turner in the lineup on Sunday against the Panthers, which is good news for fantasy owners. Turner has yet to really break out this season recording just two 100-yard rushing efforts, both at home with the last coming in week 9. This Sunday on the road against the Panthers could be his third facing the league’s 25th ranked run defense. The Panthers are allowing nearly 130 yards on the ground, 4.4 yards a pop, and have surrendered 10 rushing touchdowns. If you a looking for a big game from Turner this week, this matchup could not come at a better time; he’s a safe play this Sunday.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FIVE

Friday Edition
December 7th, 2012  

FSH Fantasy Five

Week 14 Fantasy Picks (all positions)

The Fantasy Playoffs are underway and this is no time to be second guessing or playing with doubt. This week it’s “Go Big or Go Home” so you better have the right guys in your lineup. Looking over the week 14 matchups, I offer a handful of plays that I favor this Sunday;

Week 14 fantasy help;

Michael Crabtree, WR
The 49ers don’t usually have much for fantasy owners to get excited about on offense, but unlike any other season or earlier in the season with quarterback Colin Kaepernick under center he adds another dimension that can open things up. Since Kaepernick took over the controls of the offense, wide receiver Michael Crabtree has been steadily involved. Last Sunday Crabtree was targeted a season high 11 times; his stat line, 7 receptions for 101 yards. This Sunday the Niners will face the Dolphins 26th ranked defense that allows the 17th most fantasy points to wide receivers.  In their last three road games the Dolphins have allowed at least 79 yards to the opposing team’s leading receiver; Crabtree should be a very safe flex option this week. 

Brandon Pettigrew, TE
It’s looking to be a chilly night this Sunday in Lambeau, but even low temperatures won’t stop the Lions passing game from heating up. The Lions pass game is in full throttle and over the team’s past four games tight end Brandon Pettigrew has been targeted heavily (39 times). With injuries to their young receivers (Ryan Broyles and Titus Young), fantasy owners can expect to see Pettigrew even more involved. The Packers secondary does a pretty good job against opposing tight ends, but last season at Lambeau Pettigrew caught 7 balls for 116 yards; this week could be another big game.

Alfred Morris, RB
The Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan has found himself another gem in the draft. Many of us knew that RGIII was a great talent with a tremendous upside, but very few knew what the Redskins found when they selected rookie running back Alfred Morris in the 6th round. Morris has been great this season rushing for 1,106 yards with six rushing touchdowns. He has surpassed the century mark five times this season, including his back-to-back efforts in week 12 and 13. With the Ravens 23rd ranked run defense coming to town, Morris could make it three in a row. He’s averaging 22 carries per game in his last three starts and may not need that many to hit the 100-yard mark this Sunday; play him!

Greg Jennings, WR
The Packers wide receiver Greg Jennings is just one game back from injury and although his return was less than spectacular, his four grabs for 46 yards were respectable considering. The more important number to note from last week was his 8 targets. This week the Packers will be without wide out Jordy Nelson facing the Lions 18th ranked pass defense. Fantasy owners can expect at least as many, if not more targets for Jennings this week and facing a secondary that allows the 12th most fantasy points to wide receivers, he’s a lock for a more productive week 14. Jennings should be in your lineup somewhere, low WR2 or flex.

Andrew Luck, QB
Quarterback Andrew Luck has been too consistent this season to be lucky; the kid is just good. This week facing the Titans 25th ranked pass defense, fantasy owners can count on the Colts offense riding Luck’s arm; the Colts offense goes through Luck. Not only does Luck lead the way, but this week he gets a defense that allows the 8th most fantasy points to quarterbacks and has allowed 24 touchdowns. Coming off a big win in week 13, Luck needs to be in lineups this Sunday for another big performance.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Wednesday Edition
December 5th, 2012  

David’s Daily Digest

The Strong Arms of the Fantasy Law

Schaub Could be the Goods in Week 14
Quarterback Matt Schaub has been on and off the fantasy radar much of the season leading the Texans balanced offense. This week Schaub faces the Patriots 29th ranked pass defense on Monday night in what could be a great matchup for fantasy owners. Schaub is very capable of having a big night against the Pats who allow the 11th most fantasy points to quarterbacks and have surrendered 22 touchdowns this season. Unless you have a much better option, this is the week to play Schaub.

Eli Ready to Lead Fantasy Playoff Charge
The Giants quarterback Eli Manning has been relatively quiet the past six weeks, passing for more than 250 yards in just one of his last five starts. This Sunday could be just what the fantasy doctor ordered with the Saints marching in. Eli will face the leagues 30th ranked pass defense that allows the most fantasy points to quarterbacks, including 23 touchdowns. For those owners looking to ride Eli to a fantasy championship, this could be the great start needed with the Falcons and Ravens to follow.

Romo’s Hot Hand Could Carry into Week 14
The Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo has been on a roll the last three weeks surpassing 300-yards passing in each game. It seems Romo has caught fire just in time for the fantasy playoffs and he’s coming off back to back three passing touchdown performances. He’ll have his work cut out this week against the Bengals 11th ranked pass defense that allows the 9th fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Romo should be a worthy play in deeper formats this week.

Ryan Could be Risky in Week 14
Matt Ryan has been struggling of late and his slumping could not have come at a worse time. In his last three starts Ryan has only tossed two touchdowns and has seven turnovers. The Falcons are on the road this Sunday facing the Panthers 8th ranked passing defense that does a pretty good job of getting after the quarterback (28 sacks); a tough matchup for Ryan. If you are counting on a big turnaround for Ryan heading into the fantasy postseason, it could be a risky undertaking this week; consider other options if available.

Freeman Has a Top 10 Matchup this week
The Buccaneers quarterback Josh Freeman has been playing much of the 2012 campaign in the shadows of the fantasy big names, but with 23 passing touchdowns and 3,003 yards passing he’s worth consideration. In deeper formats Freeman is a viable option this week and facing the Eagles 16th ranked pass defense that allows the 2nd most fantasy points to quarterbacks he’s a top 10 play; start him if you got him.


Just a few of my takes for week 14.


By David Ortega